Maybe The 797 Will Go Double Bubble

An old Boeing concept which Embraer employs on its own aircraft makes Boeing's next 797 a double trouble of borrowing one of its own designs having Embraer engineering behind it. Just saying, the 797 is building passenger space while having enough seats for airlines to make money.  Boeing's recent Embraer acquisition was no fluke and its 797 concepts of toying are not accidental with the Embraer on board with Boeing's design engineers. Something has got to give and it may be double bubble trouble slowing the works a little bit.

There are Two 797's In The Works

The two in mind would be called the 797R- and 797I-. One,  the "R" version would seat 250 or so passengers and would be a high density step up from single aisle for any regional travel. The "I" version would have a range for going Intercontinental or about 6,000 miles with 220 passengers. Both would be separate designs built on a dual aisle and same engine supplier basis.

Why? Boeing is already building the paper airplanes while lining up "key" suppliers before an announcement, hence the 2020 time extension rather than announcing in 2019. The result is still scheduled for 2025 for the first delivery of one type. Boeing is working on this concept as we speak and will keep secret its true intent. The Asian community will support the high-density "R", or regional type while Europe will eagerly focus on the "I" type or known as the Intercontinental. It stands to reason Boeing is truly wrestling with pulling the wool over Airbus' eyes with these transitional concepts. The Northwest should build the "R" type and Charleston will do the "I" type. Boeing is working on who will do what before committing to the two programs. It needs an engine maker, and it needs dual program management.

This would suggest that "ducks must be in a row and accounted for" before making such a brash announcement. Little lead time is given for an Airbus response since Boeing knows Airbus intel is hard at work playing with Boeing for its own benefit. The A321NEO program cannot address what Boeing will propose with one airplane type so it will go for the "twofer" having a 797R and a 797I, pleasing customers on both sides of the world at the same time. It would be offering, similar to,  making the 737-8 version at the same time as a -10 version is offered but in one announcement. 

Boeing took five years to go through the Max type airplane from a 7-10. This is a start of two programs covering the proverbial gap found from the 737 single-aisle to the 787 dual aisles. The four thousand mile airplane segment which Boeing is addressing would expand to a 6,000-mile unit segment thus encroaching upon both the 787-8 and the 737 Max 10 programs, and both are either filled or are filling rapidly suggesting an overlapping segment for the 737, 797 and 787 programs.

Boeing, at this time, is slow to act on this NMA market because it is more than just filling the gap, it is redesigning its market approach for current and potential customers. If it guesses wrong, Boeing will need decades to recover its scheme in the market place and Airbus will suffer. If it guesses well, then Boeing will hit it out of the park as a home run and Airbus will not recover even with decades of time and money on its hands. Boeing is doing something bigger than an NMA slot filler. It's trying to complete itself with this decision.

Boeing.com For The Live 777X Launch

On March 13, 2019, Boeing will launch its 777X which could be found on The Boeing Company Facebook site or on Boeing.com under its reveal. tab or another I've found may have a link for the 777X reveal.

https://www.boeing.com/777x/reveal/

Go to Boeing.com to find time and link is the best advice for the 777X. At this time poor communications exist for the live event, which is a sweet deal before waiting for a youtube after the event posting.

So try the above link for further live viewing opportunity but time has not been set unless I missed something. A bad effort by news or Boeing for finding a connection to the event.

Somebody, please post here for accurate details and a link in a response section And I'll repost this to the blog for those who want to know the time-link information for the live event on March 13, Wednesday 2019.

3-13-19 = 777X

"Roll out the X and have us a Barrel of fun" song lyrics from the old Heidel Haus days.

Yes, the 777X roll out date has been leaked by Boeing on social media.

Project Sunrise A Boeing Necessity

Boeing is hoping Qantas Company will buy the 777-8X for its Project Sunrise selection for its Qantas Airlines. A win here for Boeing would be for bragging rights which it would relish having over Airbus. The potential deal is advertising money on the table so prices on a fleet order will plunge per unit ordered by Qantas at the end of its. project. The 777-8X is about 375 million as is but the price could plunge as this is a high profile deal for this type of widebody. Airbus, on the other hand, is modifying its A350 proposal to go the distance with passengers near 300. But Boeing has the wings and that GE9X engine.

The 777-8X is configured for about 353 seats, but distances and hours should give passengers more space and airlines more distance it requires. Both makers have formidable offers but since BA just ordered 18/24 777Xs the emotional momentum has shifted to Boeing's winning the Project Sunrise offering.

The 777-8x will drop off about 75 passenger seats, down to a sensible 275 passenger "load". It will have the folding 235-foot wing which Airbus will not match unless it wants its A350-1000 to fit into abandoned A-380 terminal slots found in about 60 airports around the world. The 777X wing will fit anywhere the 787 flies. Qantas is keen on Airbus at this time just for pricing advantages over Boeing's offer. Remember the advertising account and what a Boeing 777X selection would do for future sales?

Price will drop to about 200 million per unit making Alan Joyce a little more comfortable with big ideas backed by investors. The next question is how many orders. That discussing has already happened with the two big makers in the running. Nothing less than 20 units ordered would do for any manufacturer. I would guess the orders would flow as follows for the winner. Qantas must order 20 with a 20 option in place for ten years. Or in other words about 17 billion at list prices before discounts.

Aviation wars are a funny business and it's hard to predict how things will work out for any maker. But Boeing is more able to drop price than Airbus. It's more able to morph the 777-8X into a globe trotter as it will have slightly more range than the A-350-1000 configured for Project Sunrise. Boeing knows Alan Joyce wants 300 seats for this venture but "close" to 300 seats is what either maker will offer. A Boeing deal will be made because Boeing has the Wings and the Engines. Both makers can do the internal amenities for passengers, including a boudoir for most. Boeing can and will go 9,000 miles easily where Airbus will have to trick out an offering with more fuel and fewer seats to make that range.

Airbus will have to go 250 seats with its A-350-1000 and some extra fuel tanks to boot. Allan Joyce may think 250 seats is not profitable and what he had in mind. He wants those 300 seats! Ticket prices need to fall to fill 300 seats to go 9,000 miles each time. Going from Sydney Australia to London, westward, against the wind on most days is difficult and dangerous when the weather changes mid-flight. The aircraft may have to fly around a bit and burn more fuel and serve more amenities when it stays aloft for 21 hours instead of 20 hours. Egads!

The time on board will necessitate space and kiosks for the passengers and crews as well. People need to move around, sleep and browse about the cabin for 20 hours of duration. A seat can only stay so long at the movies or on the web. The amenity offering will be an interesting proposition most air travel people only think of after 12 hours in the air. Sleep is one part of that equation as is seat time. The open variable is plan B. Browsing the cabin.

British Airways Buys Boeing 777X Big

Instead of Airbus turning the tables on Boeing, the table turned on Airbus as BA choose the 777-9X  in this go-round of orders. The BA orders righted the 777X program for an on-course production flow as now Boeing will commit more to the 777X program and more risk can be taken with its NMA announcement coming in 2019. The order basic involves 34 747 retirements by 2022.

British Airways Score Card:

• (-34), 747 retired by 2022.
• 18, A350-1000 booked with delivery beginning in 2019
• 18, 7779x booked with starting delivery in 2020
• 24, 7779X Optioned for after 2022

Net growth of 26 WB frames

The retiring of the 747 fleet nets a fleet increase

Total British Airways value of Boeing's 777X aircraft at list price 18.5 billion including firm and optioned aircraft for 42 units.

BA has already in the fleet or ordered WBs per below chart.

Wikipedia BA Fleet Chart

                                      -1st2B PEc  Ec  Total

Boeing 777-200	3	—	17	48	24	127	216	To be replaced by 777-300ER[138][139]
Boeing 777-200ER	43	—	14	48	40	124	226[140]
			—	48	24	203	275
			—	32	52	252	336[141]
Boeing 777-300ER	12	3[142]	14	56	44	185	299
Boeing 787-8	12	—	—	35	25	154	214
Boeing 787-9	18	—	8	42	39	127	216
Boeing 787-10	—	12[143]	TBA

Just a quick summary of the BA fleet size concening Boeing product. It could replace many of its 777-200ERs with 777X currently from the MOU (24 LOI). Knowing this order will take about 5 years to complete 18 777X's and if the 777X meets and exceeds expectation in service Boeing could expect another 50 of its 777X to be ordered by 2025 for a complete fleet renewal of its total 777 classic version 777's.

1500 Posts At Winging It!

Thanks all for reading.!!!!

Notes:

May 2016 Viet Jet ordered 100 Max 200's

*February 2019 Viet Jet Ordered 80 737 Max 10s 
                                                20 737 Max 8s
*Bamboo Air                             10 787-9s (10 787 + 25 Max in Talks/Options)
                              Total Today:110 Booked 

Vietnam has firmed 210 (Viet Jet 100 (2016) +100 (2019) Bamboo 10 787-9s) Boeing aircraft with option and intents remaining for a growing industry in the region with Bamboo Airways yet to firm its single-aisle equipment needs.

2/28/2019 who wins the BA order bid 777X or the A350-1000? Only hours away for the answer.

Randy Tinseth On Airshow Approach

Here is a break for Boeing-o-philes. A Randy Tinseth looks at Boeing Thinking.

2018 Dubai Airshow

Farewell A-380 You Are Changing The Market On Departure

When the A-380 is last produced in 2021 it will affect the market significantly by making Twin Engine behemoths, the new aviation rock stars. Enter the 777X and the A-350-1000 for which Airbus contemplates a 777X killer called an A-350-2000. The 2000 lineage from Airbus would indicate plus 400 seats but how will it match what Boeing is trying with its 777Xs?

1. Starting with Boeing's folding wing, Airbus won't match it
2. Enlarging A-350 windows will be done in some other shape
3. Fixing 400 plus seats Airbus will accomplish
4. Flying lighter than the 777X frame is an Airbus accomplishment
5. Having seat/mile costs the lowest is a Boeing win.
6. Boeing has the Engine GE9X, Rolls just dreams about it.
7. Boeing 777X program timing is on the cusp of the A-380 demise
8. Pricing of both the 777X and A-350-2000 is a push
9. The market has room for just one Aircraft maker for the size of the airplane class
10. Boeing owns the pole position in this race and the 777X becomes the industry standard.

The 7478F and A-380 are under the microscope where the 7478F remains to have a freight market sewed up. It will be built for the next 20 years as a stablemate with the 777-8XF or 9XF going forward much like the 767 has done over the last 10 years. The A-380 is basically done by 2021 where Airbus will unleash resources to counter Boeing's effort with new airframe offerings.

Bamboo Bang For Buck Is 787 For Ten

Bamboo just signed for 10 more 787's while President Trump viewed on during his summit visit to the Far East with NK Leaders. The Vietnam based airline already has 20  787 on firm orders and this 10 just signed will increase the Boeing fold to 30 787's.

"The carrier, which is owned by property and leisure company FLC Group and made its first flights in January, placed a provisional order last year for 20 Boeing 787 widebody jets worth $5.6 billion at list prices." is reported.

The word provisional sticks out the most as Bamboo seems it has not firmed the first 20 at this time. However, it firmed 10 with the Trump visit and is new and separate from the 20 it provisioned last year. This indicates Boeing and Bamboo have not yet settled on a price for 20 but Bamboo is still intending on those first 20 it had committed to buy.

In all, Bamboo is looking for the lowest price per plane as it already has higher priced A350's in its fleet. The 787 will cover the same market the A-350 covers. If Bamboo's 20 787 are firmed in 2019 then Bamboo will have added 30 787's to Boeing's bookings.