Boeing Chokes On Its 797 and Says 2019

Winging It has long predicted a 2018 797 launch. The time window is just right for Boeing but its leaders have just now cleared its voice saying, "2019" for the 797 Goldilocks and will launch (hinted) in 2019 because its business case is not yet perfected for the 797. Winging It also believes a concurrent program for the 797 exists. 

In other words, the program has seven years before an official delivery date but in those seven years, Boeing would also concurrently resolve all financial planning concerns. Boeing does have its customers for a launch at this time. It also has its technological bundle for the 797 in a row. The design points are now relegated to an adjustment period where the eraser could change what launch customer would want for a refining design. An observer (Winging It) has no idea what has just occurred with the Boeing 797 prototype but only assumes it will hold 220-270 passengers and fly 5000-mile distance with full loads.

As mentioned before, CFM (A GE joint venture with Safran, jet engine builders) has let this little nuance out of its bag; "CFM" is ready to go with Boeing on a 797 "45,000 lbs thrust range". That is a major concern (having a new engine) for this airplane program and one more year waiting for a launch does not change the 2025 first delivery date but does allow Rolls, PW and GE; a shot of making a solid proposal during 2019. The concurrency has started with an engine builder already "concurrently" working an engine-up by Paris where development is farther along than the press would indicate. Expect an engine proposal coming forward, with Boeing accepting a single source jet engine. Rolls Royce is working at a high pace proposing a 797 jet engine by Paris Air Show, 2019. CFM is working and indicating it is ready for Boeing's 797 and GE is lurking while PW GTF is also a strong contender.

It could announce at Farnborough but won't announce because Boeing has backed down its new airplane development swagger as a corporate policy, thus avoiding all-new airplane woes experienced from the 787 experience. Airbus knows where Boeing is going and Boeing is not in the Airbus rearview mirror. Airbus needs to clean its windscreen several times a day from Boeing splatters at this time. The 797 is the biggest spatter for Airbus, which no wiper could possibly clean in time for the Paris Airshow. Boeing is going to have a huge widebody order book at Farnborough while Airbus will announce several hundred single-aisle A-320's orders. The dollar order value will favor Boeing at Farnborough and beyond.

The KC-46 Takes-Off

Needing a certificate from several agencies and especially the US Air Force, the Boeing corporation exhales as it completes its tanker tests this month. It is ready to start serving the US Air Force with its Boeing built KC-46 tankers going forward. One of the previous key problems for the tanker requiring this final testing was the remote sensing function for the boom hooking up with its flying customer's. Prior to this final test, the tanker's remote sensing would have some occasion to lose contact or scratch and dent the trailer fueling aircraft with its fueling probe. 

The former process for fuel transfer required an airman to lie flat watching the hook-up from the flat position while operating controls for its fueling procedure. The KC-46 now has an airman sitting forward in the aircraft body from this former position conducting this mission on a screen with all the tanker fueling capabilities at his fingertips. The tests for this modernization had some flaws where glare showing from the sensor to the screen blocked a clear view for its operators. 

It went back to the shop for fixing and testing for which it now has passed using software upgrades and possibly some other equipment upgrades. It now works as tests indicate and the tanker can now deliver without operator obstruction of view or loss of fueling probe placement.



KMUW reports:
"The recent tests involved the tanker’s remote vision system and refueling two more types of aircraft. Those results, combined with testing completed in June, made the tanker eligible for delivery, the Air Force said."

The tanker will have first delivery in late October to the Airforce at McConnell AFB, starting the sequence for 18 deliveries by April 2019.

Whew, it's about time and it sounds like a military marvel from all the work done on the program. It will fly the wounded, surveil, and fuel everything the Airforce has with wings except missiles. There are other functions not discussed and remains secret this airplane will do.

The B-21 Northrup Bomber Winner

The DoD has scheduled at least 100 active combat bombers and it could go as high as 164 production deliveries depending on costs and program progress. Northrup won the bidding war partially because it has experience in making a flying wing body bomber like its B-2 bomber.

B-2 Photo from National Interest

Now comes the B-21 Raider from Northrup as it is rapidly approaching the Critical Design Review phase (CDR) depicted below.

LA Times Rendering 

The CDR will report if the B-21 has reached a paper accomplishment of achieving design elements, meeting the Northrup's RFP proposal response before building the first flying prototype. It is an important milestone for the program. The technical paper shows how Northrup will accomplish the B-21 Raider completeness within costs for numbers requested. It may be a wide range CDR including testing and product upgrading during its production cycle.

National Interest Quote:

"We haven’t done CDR yet, we are on our way to critical design review,” Randy Walden, director and program executive officer for the Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office—which is responsible for B-21 program— said during an speaking engagement held at the Air Force Association’ Mitchell Institute on June 25."

It will be a stealth bomber. On another note, the B-52 will incorporate heavy lifting weapons receptacles of 20,000 lbs for its wings. Suggesting a mission change within the shadows of the B-21 future capabilities.

Boeing Orders Up For June

It's a pre-Farnborough order blaze for Boeing totaling 460 net orders. Not detailing the Airbus book of 206 net orders may discourage Farnborough Air Show-goers unless it has held back order announcements until the UK airshow. Boeing will announce more at the airshow. It will be a dogfight for top dog at the ordering booth. The mid-year numbers favor Boeing but an end of 2018 order numbers are yet to come. Boeing's lead having some large MOU's not finalized, will boost the Boeing order book along the way.

Below is a Winging It/Boeing year to date net order synapsis of firmed orders:

  
The Max leads the pack with 347 net orders to date. The widebody group easily outpaces Airbus with Boeing's 141 net ordered. Airbus has only 50 net orders for its widebody this year. The "Airshow" will provide a platform for Airbus to catch-up, but will it? That becomes the question before the big event. Will It?

Making It Difficult For Airbus

Boeing has a plan and it’s the NMA 797. Airbus has a plane and it's the A-321NEO. Boeing would like to launch its 797 as an Airbus killer. In one fell swoop while announcing the 797 Boeing would like to stall both the A-321 and A-330NEO programs. Even though the 797 won't fly as far as the A-330NEO it doesn't have to because the purpose of its design is to land smack dab into the middle of where the market goes to and fro. That is to say, going from coast to coast linking millions. 

Boeing has all the pieces of a 797 from its drawing board to the flight line. It even has an "engine to go". The engine is another story and that's why it asked for engine makers to turn-in its RFP proposals a few days ago within 48 hours of its engine proposal deadline. Boeing has an engine, the proposals are for second place offering. I suppose it’s a CFM/GE with a 45,000 to 50,000 thrust range that it has already tested and is ready for the next step within the next three years. That is to say, flying on a 747 wing. The following are the big checkboxes completed before Farnborough Air Show.

Ø  Engine committed

Ø  Design confirmed

Ø  Customer Acceptance,

Ø  New Technology constrained to Boeing's already proven   technology

Ø  Production constrained by Location, Location, Location.

Ø  Realtors are celebrating at the local Hilton.

Ø  The 797 has a range of 5,200 miles/240 seats or 4,500   miles/270 seats

Ø  Everyone thinks of a Paris announcement with cream cheese   on a crumpet

Ø  Boeing is far removed from Paris as a pound is a pound the   world around 

Boeing's "job one" is to deflect Airbus at every turnstile. Waiting for a 2019 announcement at Paris keeps Airbus talking at the turnstile. Announcing during 2018 when the program is ready is the Boeing prize.

Farnborough UK

Fog glasses with optical sun shades is the complete Farnborough kit.




Choosing the right coat and shoes is next more import clothing on the list. I went for the Sherlock Holmes hunting cap including ear flaps, buttoned over the dome. The tobacco shop didn't have "my" pipe. It only had a Moby Dick style straight pipe. I quickly snatched up the Dr. Watson satchel with a monogrammed gold inlay "Farnborough 2018" on its flap.

Back to the center piece the coat.



I found a high collar London Fogger draping down to mid shin bone. It came with a dark grey neck scarf off-setting the woolen coats tweed design. A Bennedict Cumberbach wannabe. The shoes are personnel and walking silly is the task at hand. I finished with the following Farnborough Airshow look as shown below.




When sneaking around behind the curtains at each pavilion a more formal look was employed the over coat was added.

Farnborough 2018, will introduce a new deduction motor and photographic memory cards.

Dr Watson will of course be manning the Sherlock booth for which I will stalk during the show.

The Purpose Driven 797

The 797 dual aisle is aimed at the pinnacle of the single-aisle market, the 737 and A321. Airbus has had a long run with its A321 holding a baker's dozen and a half times ten going 4,000 miles now Boeing will take aim at building a new replacement for single-aisle travel. The key component is the dual aisle room is more efficient than a single aisle cattle shoot. Boeing added a 737-10 to its family of single-aisle continental flyers but it did not want to infringe upon devouring its single-aisle following with an all-new class of airplane like the 797. 

It wants to leapfrog Airbus' A321 capstone with a new class by not sacrificing its own single-aisle sales book. It doesn't want to harm the 787 range of function as many of that widebody travels under 5,000 miles on a particular route. The 797 is purpose-driven by fitting in and not dividing the Boeing market. It is also a disruptor for the A321 market. In a chess game, its a pawn next to opposition's king where any move by the king puts it into checkmate while the pawn put the King into check-mate at the same time. The 797 is that pawn. Airbus will have to build an all-new pawn to compete with Boeing, but it will also have to compete from behind the chess board's back line.

Boeing's finger is on that 797 pawn about to move one space forward on the corner to the Airbus King. 

Boeing Wrestles With Its 797 Egg Laying Chicken

The old question comes about from what came first? The Chicken or the egg? Boeing's 797 program is about to answer that age-old question with the 797. It says it wants to know how big the market will be for the 797 before it builds said aircraft. The other side says if we build it they will come thus expanding the market so the how big question is a moot point. The never-ending paradox defines Boeing's conundrum. We won't build until we know how big the market will be and the market won't know how big until Boeing makes first 797 delivery, or if it will buy more than Boeing's predictions. The best Boeing case scenario should of have been to keep quiet on the subject in case it's a nogo.

Boeing has climbed too far down that rope for it to climb back up from where it started. Boeing is overcommitted to an uncertain program to back off the 797. Its chicken has a white meat crowd following, and then a wings group who like its eggs easy over. Both groups want to have control of program costs most of the time. Boeing is well positioned to take a roll of its airplane development dice suffering a win-win outcome, and that's what Boeing was positioning itself for in the first place. This chicken is more apt to fly than lay an egg. The risk is Boeing fails to meet 797 expectation and can't recover its trip to the fence rail.

All in all the 797 has gone way past the end of a serviceable 797 rope and it will have to launch before it lays an egg.

Vacation Starts Now

I'm on a personal traveling beat for the next two weeks. If something gets posted its raining somewhere. July 1-14 and so forth. Back for a Farnborough quip though. Enjoy your summer, it flies by too fast.

When WiLL The 797 Announce

There are several or multiple schools of thought on when the 797 will be announced by Boeing. The mega airplane builder just met with Delta over some 797 plans. Delta won't budge until Boeing commits officially for making the New Medium Airplane (NMA) decision. For those who claim Boeing will only announce during 2020, it seems unlikely or not possible an announcement will be coming from Farnborough in 2018. There are those who suspect a Paris 2019 Airshow announcement is forthcoming.

A "Winging It" view takes an early announcement period approach landing at Farnborough during July 2018 and here is why. 

• What has been taking so long with a new program has been accomplished without publication of the progress. 
• Engine makers were long ago given the Boeing gauntlet for a 45,000 lb thrust engine. 
• Boeing has everything ready including its launch customers which Delta has just signaled its still onboard with the final prototype configuration. 

What would be a show stopper for Delta's want is the offering price the Boeing 797 may require something too pricey. Boeing would sell the 797 to its launch customers at a sizable discount. Boeing would hope it could reduce production costs by the time its launch customers would reorder another tranche of 797's 5-10 years later. 

Does Boeing have its start-up costs controlled?  Boeing is shooting for a $60-70 million dollar 797 for its customers which may be reasoned out to a $120 million dollar list price per unit. Delta may have told Boeing that if it can cut a price for $60 million each they will launch with a hundred units, but Boeing must announce it first before it will buy.

Delta and Boeing will be doing that backroom dance at Farnborough. Look for Boeing establishing a $15 Billion dollar 797 program deferred cost pit in order to make orders appear at the launch. Boeing would hope to build and deliver by 2025, a $50 million production cost copy which it will sell for a $70 million @ a "deal price" while listing it at $120 million for those who care about such things. 

The idea here is that numbers float around the room full of principal players until someone rings a bell on a sweet price. The "787 deferred cost pit" will only have a few billion remaining before the 797 gets into full swing. Its currently approaching the $20 billion level coming down from about $30 billion and that deferred costs reduction slope is steepening each month. By 2025, the deferred cost moniker rolls over to the 797 program.

The 2018 797 launch announcement doesn't have to wait on engine programs to catch-up, it just has to know an engine will be ready by 2024. Boeing at least has one engine maker ready for its engine plan and timetable. Boeing would like another engine proposal as it has also recently called out those who were given a deadline for its engines proposals due last week. Coincidently, it is in time for Farnborough 2018.

Boeing would like to avoid giving Paris 2019 the venue for the announcement since it is home ground for the Airbus effort. This would eliminate a 2019 797 debut. The 2020 crowd expecting a later Farnborough launch are too late in its thinking. Boeing is in a hurry at this time and going early won't affect its, "in already-in-development 797 programs" at all. 

Why say Boeing needs another two years of lead-time when it already has consumed program time on new technology from its other programs? It has already lined up launch customers and it already has the production space. It's ready! 2020 is too late, 2019 is too Airbus, and 2018 is Goldilocks in the Boeing house.