All Things 787 Lists Big 787 December Deliveries

An often relied upon and cited web site All Things 787 has captured an interesting firing order for December 2017. If thinking December will be a dull production is a farce. There about 17 787's scheduled for delivery in the month. Blogger,  Uresh Seth is seldom wrong with his tracking and reporting from his website  AllThings787.

December should not disappoint Boeing's year-end game plan.

All Things 787 Scheduling during the Month of December 2017 

Marking  90 -delivered  787's  YTD, pressures Boeing for a strong finish during Boeing's fourth Quarter of its 787 deliveries. It has about 55 frames remaining for its customers delivery in this year's production schedule. Not counting December's listings leaves about 38 frames remaining for September, October and November,. Reaching a 13 month pace plus the 17 listed for December makes for a "NO Holds Barred" ruckus on the production floor. A "don't drop a tool" control over plant production, should show up starting with the Month of September. The Uresh "tables" can't predict an absolute outcome but is does predict Boeing's intent going into its final quarter for 2017.

US Starting Line Up Announced For North Korea's Big Game

North Korea, the antagonist  in our thinking, which is probably an absolute truth. The US the protagonist, even though it has much to account for themselves find themselves at the pre game tip off, kick-off or what any other sports metaphor applies. The US doesn't enslave its people to a level North Korea would nor does it kill off its dictator's (fearless leader) relatives (named Boris or Natasha), as a cultural practice. The US offers a strong response from Commander in Chief, Rocky The Flying Squirrel. A high ranking general, Bullwinkle, at the pentagon  strategizes  how the US will respond after he names it "Operation Peabody".

The first half starting line up for team USA top to bottom: B-1, F-15, F-35 (A or B?)

  
Photo by Japan Air Self-Defense Force

Should North Korea order the US into having fly-by's by firing missiles at Japan? No! Since they can't even rent a "Robin" costume from "Batman's" footlocker. 

Holy Snickies Batman, what is a B-1?

Now for the commercial break analysis of the impending mess and ejection of players from North Korea (NK). 

The F-35 as mentioned by this web site, is a flying combat computer which hasn't shown its chops in a combat scenario. The US would like to sell more of its pride and joy to the world.  Kim Jung Un (NK's Boris), says he can help that proposal and rattles off a half dozen or so ballistic missiles in a few short months, claiming it can shoot down Guam in the process. NK also shoots one over Japan in a free advertising scheme with the US. What if NK has discovered how to arm its missiles or worse yet detonate one over its planned target? By-the-way, Guam is an Island and Kim can't shoot it down?

Robin then again pipes up, "Holy annihilation Batman, what's a B-1?

Batman then succinctly lays down his NK prognostication, "Robin, the F-35 is a flying computer which can plug its wi-fi into the B-1 and play an arcade game of Pack man. The F-35 with its vast sensors can identify multiple targets, lock and load the B-1 and "Bamm!  NK wakes up in the stone age. The fight is down to sticks and stones and the US has bigger stones, so says Rocky."

The F-35 can fly between the radar hedges and storm the field like a Bulldog. It eludes 1950's radar like a roach when the lights turn on. It then passes a long bomb to the B-1 flying over the F-35 shadow dance below. The F-35 can launch a "localized nuke" if asked nicely by General Bullwinkle. The F-35 precision refines dumping an explosion to within a zip code, if NK even has one.

General Bullwinkle is harrumphing himself in front of CNN for the sake of its last remaining viewing sycophants. He loves it when a plan(e) comes together. The explanation is directed to any would be egomaniacs of the world. "We have bigger stones and will use them if provoked." 

Rocky, without extreme ego-humility addresses the nation in solemn tones, " I should of, would of, could of made Nk's (lower case k) leading export of radiated glass, but it would have no value for our stain glass industry. Instead I ordered the Surgeon General to conduct precision surgical strikes on Nk's extensive bunker system, thus saving its population from using its own mass transit system and then blocking use of its vast rock gardens throughout the Nk nation.  We didn't use the name Operation Market Garden from WWII fame, but settled on "Operation Peabody" sending Nk on its "way back machine", to the stone age."

By the way, El Rocky, as fondly referred to in the oval office with a round table, mentioned a new deal for the F-35's with its Island Nation of Puerto Rico. F-35B's will land on the sovereign beaches of US Territories, thus expanding tourist trade to any Island nation within the US Territory Trade Agreements (USTTA).

The "Us To" agreement fully allows every Island or peninsula adjacent to a US Territory the same access to military base canteens within a 2,200 mile sphere of influence this making Nk and Guam a partnered canteen guest and host. 

The last word about Nk's future and territorial trade agreements, "Huh!"  

Boeing's August 787 Production and Program Recap

The Boeing 787 program numbers are available with both summary program numbers and August's units in its production activity. Below in Table one is the steady erosion of 787 backlog numbers as it reports 89 787 delivered YTD for the 787 family of aircraft. The second number of interest is the number of YTD 787 sales at a net of 78 units.  

Table 1.

The second table below shows Boeing has met its own guidance for delivering 12  units a months over the last 90 days. More will summarized as the year closes and Boeing closes in on its 787 production goals for 2017

Table 2.

The table below is a snapshot of quarter by quarter 787 deliveries and orders. Boeing has slipped behind on orders as its deliveries out pace the orders by 89-78. The much watched for book to bill ratio of "1" has slipped to a .87 factor, indicating a pause in the sales as compared with its production output.

Table 3.

The program progress chart below provides a snapshot of YoY  787 Orders compared with its deliveries, and a backlog perspective during the program's progress. The backlog has dipped to its lowest level with a total of 689 unfilled 787 orders. since 2011 when Boeing made its first three 787 deliveries.

Table 4.

Table 5. Is a break out of Model by Model orders, delivered and corresponding unfilled orders.

Table 6. Is a 787 snapshot of works in process reflecting on historical processed aircraft as deliveries and the current production floor units.

Boeing Order Summary August Chart Tests

The final numbers are not in for Boeing's August Order and net numbers. An attempt is made by Winging It, formatting a break out for YTD tracking especially zeroing in on the NG/Max single aisle counts. This chart's intent was to isolate how many 737 NG's are booked as compared with the 737 Max and what customer has contributed to that total. 

Boeing does not break-out single aisle transaction in a clear method where it will only list gross orders in its order book for all types but net adjustments are lost when it updates its website each week or update cycle. However it does show a netting number for both the NG and Max when an update does occur. 

The below chart is an attempt to fill in using a journal type approach for all its orders and adjustments from July 31, 2017 only. The data from January 1, until July 31, does not have a break-out of individual changes to its books from gross to net numbers of aircraft ordered. It does not break out current year or prior year adjustments as a subset but it includes all adjustments applied to current year orders.

 

Logistics Will Sell the 747-8F

Logistic was a word foreign to me way back in 1990’s, then a working partner introduced the word logistics to my lexicon. What in the heck was Logistics? A quick reach for Merriam Webster dictionary made it clear, that is what we do. A trucking conglomerate uses logistics for managing its fleet at the right time and at the right place with the minimal amount of resources used to make it happen. The next layers keep piling up when considering equipment maintenance, human resource availability or even fueling stops. Before you know it, you have to hire more computers, dispatchers, and customers for continuing for it to work smoothly.

Fed-Ex was a pioneer in the concept of just-in time package processing while using airline hub and route synchronizations. Then another giant UPS went from ground to air sorting scheme in a big way.

Originally, somewhere somebody did a college research project on what logistics can do for you. A belief is that the originator of efficient logistics came to the Fed-Ex business model.

This comes back to a point of why the 747-8F may hang onto having a future. The freight companies must learn how to logistically work outs its kinks before buying a 747-8F. It has to pay for one from its own operation’s cash before placing an order which somehow connects to the word “Logistic”.

Are you ready for the online definition from Merriam Webster?

logistics

noun, plural in form but singular or plural in construction  lo·gis·tics \lō-ˈji-stiks, lə-\

Definition of logistics

1:  the aspect of military science dealing with the procurement, maintenance, and transportation of military matériel, facilities, and personnel

2:  the handling of the details of an operation the logistics of a political campaign

Now, that really clears it up for those trying to find their way to a 747-8F. Another question is why an A-380 could not sell its passenger version as a freighter? The answer is a many fold response so big it had a limited freight airport availability. Airbus did not or could not successfully design an efficient A-380 cargo hold for multi-dimensional cargo loads. It had no front door like the 747-8F.

The list could on, but the idea is that the A-380 is a flying whale where the cheaper 747-8F was already fit for the job from its 747-400F roots. The threshold of payload weight was not much different for the 747-8F than what the A-380 was capable doing. After-all the 747 carried America’s space shuttle on its back. Another point, is freight haulers are not a dime a dozen commodity and has a low ceiling for customer potential for its air frame purchases.

Boeing stole the march against the A-380 from having a better experience while building 747-400-F. The logistics for having an A-380 where too enormous for any freight company. 

Another way of analyzing the A-380; business risks could not make a solid case for any Freight Company, from above in the previous paragraphs suggests.  There are a plethora of technical concerns and other statistical data supporting not buying the A-380 for freight. Hence, the 747-8F stole the slim market away from Airbus at the big end of the freight market. 

The companion 777-F also complimented the 747-8F in a family of large freighters. The final straw was the lucrative 767-F market would not be matched by the A-330-F having a lower purchase costs and right sized capacity. Boeing had a suite of aircraft for any freight haulers logistical nightmares and Airbus has proposed alterations for its commercial passenger aircraft when going into freighter configurations.  

Continued logistical efficiency will increase the probability of more 747-8F’s sales in the future. As the few freight companies learn how to manage the business better by steps in inches, the heavy freight business becomes more active over time. The A-380F can’t wait since it is no longer evolving for its nonexistent customers. The 747-8F is in the logistical cross hairs. The question from the market place is how can “we” stuff more freight through the nose of a 747-8F? Every-other metric is in place from the frame’s operation. It’s down to several freight business factors:

• Demand for its package delivery timing
• Demand from aircraft availability and reliability
• Demand for having operational constants known (experience)

This opens the door for specialty crops from Asia, bulldozers from John Deere and airplane structures from Boeing, just to name a few. The market is a just-in-time logistical nightmare where the floating freight container ships are for those who ship a large quantity anytime for some future trade tied to a seasonal schedule.

The person who studied for a Fed-Ex solution, had a key cog in its wheel. It was air freight. The 747-8F has to stay alive long enough until the market catches-up through learning its how logistics makes it possible.

Computer Box 101 and the F-35

The F-35 critique must start with "it's no more than a computer box". Also known as the thing that sits on floor plugged into a monitor at your work station. So for future reference, let's call the F-35 the Flying Computer Box or FCB-35.

A 1990's computer box mounted by a screen with a keyboard at its foot pads. 

Having cleared up how computers have advanced let's look at a 2017 computer Box



Critiques weigh in, once again it has six sides as did in 1990 so it is a complete fraud and a flop as a operating box.

It is time to look at a 2006 Flying Computer Box, affectionately known as the FCB-35. It can't dogfight, it cost too much and the future adversary has sexier and meaner looking fighters in its development. Its been 11 years since it first flew as shown below.



Not only does it not have a six sided box look, its has six cameras for its pilot virtual reality(distributed aperture if you must look-up). The important lesson submitted is that in 1990 a computer box was just a a computer box without losing its box configuration. While in 2017 the "Box" has become a super computer. It defies logic how a six sided box can change the world during 27 years since 1990.



Below is the year 2044 showing the latest FCB-35 but it has a 10-F upgrade with a new suite of weapons. However, the six eyed beast is one that combatants fear the most.

Its a 2044 flying six eyed monster.

What Changed? The answer came starting with installation 3-F software this September. It can do a full combat suite of bad stuff. What will software version 10-F do? Anything it wants to do as the 2017 entertainment "box" pictured at the top of the page suggests.

Winging It Recaps Boeing's Summary Orders

The chart below starts with data at end of July 31, 2017 at the masthead

 An order was placed during August updated this day August 24, 2017. August has seen 24 737 ordered by several carriers over-all. The bottom two rows mirror the Boeing recap found on its web site, Boeing .com.

The latest customer for ten Max were ordered by Japan Investment Adviser Co. Ltd as reported by Boeing's website. 

The detail between the 737 NG and Max units is interpolated from Boeing data when backing into a breakout of NG orders vs Max orders which is not provided on Boeing's summary in an out right fashion. Using YTD Boeing information from a model by model gross order count and then applying any reported changes from Boeing reaches a net number by type.

In other words, it becomes a detective like pursuit to find out how many net NG's or Net Max are on order when using Boeing publicized minimal data concurrently with any changes to its order book summary.

 

The Great Boeing 787 Pause.

Early on after announcing the 787 Boeing Program, it booked hundreds of 787 numbers. In fact it has booked about 1,278 mid wide body aircraft since first announcing the 787 offering. It then established itself as the leading widebody manufacturer with its 787 production. The important number at this time is the number of delivered 787 and its place in the airline industry market. Below is a summary recap supporting this contribution of entering into a Market pause for medium wide body aircraft during 2017.

Boeing 787 Program Summary August 23, 2017

Boeing is nearing a 50-50 split of 787 Booked to  undelivered in backlog as the above chart reveals a 46% delivered and 54% undelivered. More importantly there are almost 600 787 flying in the airline market today and Boeing should reach that mark by the first part of October 2017. The 582 flying represents a market dominance for this type of aircraft when Airbus just reached the 100 A-350's delivered.

A second point of interest is the backlog for both makers of this class of airplane. The class must meet this criteria: 

• Mostly composite, 
• Mostly new technology and 
• Mostly exclusive engine progress for that type...

 for which both the 787 and A-350 meet these arbitrary points in common.

The A-330 NEO is not part of this recap since it is not composite nor has started significant delivery.

Airbus has booked 848 A-350's and has delivered 100 thus making a backlog for 748 of its medium wide body aircraft. Boeing 's backlog has slipped under the Airbus count by about 50 units in this comparison.

In total the market has about 700 of this type of medium widebody aircraft flying the world routes. This would not include the 767,777 or the A-330's currently flying in this comparison, but does affect the market saturation for this class of medium wide body. 

To further count a number for older medium wide body would enforce the concept that the market has reached somewhat a saturation for medium wide body class of airplane until the airline business plans change or market expansion occurs. The other point is higher fuel prices will install demand for the medium widebody types. The price of fuel has just started a small climb in price, causing airline customer's to carefully watch this indices with its own airline growth.

The chart above suggest a market filling with Boeing's 787's where airbus cannot not compete with airplanes in service at this time. Airbus may "max" out at 10 A-350's built a month within three years where while Boeing can sustain building 12 a per month for its 787 production pace, unless it books greater numbers during the remainder of 2017. It has already booked a net 78 of its 787 this year with more orders hanging.

This brings the comment to the famous book to bill ratio of "1". A definition of book to bill is for every 787 purchased one 787 is delivered in the same accounting period of a year.  However, a moving analysis at this moment has a slight delivery edge (82) over Boeing's 787 booked (78) during 2017. The snapshot book to bill ratio is .95 YTD.  An almost perfect 1 for infinity and beyond. 

As the year comes to a close that ratio will likely dip into the .7's as orders are predicted to be a hit and miss proposition at this time. There are only four more months in 2017 to obtain enough orders (50 needed) to keep pace with its production delivery pace. Boeing would like but will not obtain a "1" book to bill ratio by years end.

This pursuit of a book to bill of "1"  for the 787's also saturates the market place with more 787's by year's end. In two years at this pace of about 140 units a year delivered, Boeing will reach the lofty heights of 850 units flying in the 787 market place, which would be currently equivalent to the the A-350 orders for its A-350 family of aircraft.

When the 787-10 starts delivery, the whole dynamic changes as it will fill a segment where the 787-8 and 787-9 does not occupy. Airbus has its A-350-1000 entering the market stream for which the 777 already occupies. The A-350-1000 goes on long legged routes which is a thin market at this time. When the 777X enters the work place, the A-350-1000 will be so yesterday, even when done in plastic. The 777X is not a 787-10 market replacement. 

The 777X family has out sold the A-350-1000 as Airbus has only booked 212 of its type, and the Boeing 777X has 326 on order from its customers. Boeing neatly bracketed Airbus with its combination of long haul or high density aircraft. The 787-9 shades its performance over the A-350-900 and the 787-10 undercuts the A-350-1000 with its short segment capability. While the 777X has an over-arching flight plan hovering in a strike formation on the A-350 family of aircraft going over its top end.

The above chart goes back to the 1 to 1 book to bill rate with another slant. Look at deliveries to date and then look at the total backlog to date. The backlog is 1.17 over the delivery total exceeding a book to bill ratio of "1". This will erode to a under "1" ratio in time. Boeing will need more sales as the market evolves. It has positioned itself well with that evolution of the market. It has opportunity with rising fuel prices and fleet renewal, as the cheaper classic wide body age out in operation. 

Expansions of fleet will depend on an airline business model taking advantage of new wide body efficiency. In the near term, the driving force for buying wide body would be a fleet replacement need. Sales have slowed for both makers as airlines are doing just fine with classic airplanes flying on lower fuel and air frame prices.

United's Small Body Strategy

United has a plan, but it needs a validation from researching its regional market. Initially it had ordered 65 737-700's in a market filling move. Then it decided that move would be parleyed into a Max Order. United had moved towards new technology at the expense of right sizing its own passenger demand constraints. It is currently reviewing the 100 seat market as its 737 back-order mix consist of airplanes much larger than a 100 seats. United's resources are limited and it can not purchase every line of aircraft when filling its vast market place. 

United's current fleet dichotomy:

Plane spotter's 

Notice the absence of 100 seat aircraft in the above chart. United will have to reconfigure its operation over its whole fleet costing millions/ Billion's?

It needs every kind of aircraft currently offered by every manufacturer selling aircraft. The would include Embraer's, 737 family and Bombardier's using every seat category from 50 to 200 seats. 

It placed its capitol towards the 737 family of aircraft early on its strategic move for small body single aisle. It then converted those 737-700's into a wide array of single aisle orders. Now it is looking at the 100 seat category where the 737-700 would be too large to manage in its small market places. Flying to Kalispell, Mt would be ideal for a hundred seat aircraft with a network of Spokane Wa. Billing's Mt and a Seattle Wa.  This example would mix small towns with large towns with ease and affordability for its customers which a 737 aircraft may not fit its regional footprint for an efficient operation.

United is concerned with fitting a 100 seat aircraft into its fleet mix while having an affordable operations cost.  Control over costs of a non-conforming fleet aircraft is a fundamental concern after having a Boeing main fleet composition. By including a small body Bombardier would wear on the cost efficiency for its operations crew including its maintenance parts, and servicing. This introduction of a small body division could jeopardize the efficiency gained from having fleet commonality.

The airline has to find its way through the maze of options from other manufacturers such as Embraer or Bombardier. This conundrum had bothered the likes of Delta airlines and others as well. A careful path from what the other airlines have etched is a way through the market swamp assisting United's small body aspirations. It only has to figure out how to pay for a non conforming fleet from start to finish within its operational constraints.

Operation Defending Nemo

Nuclear capability Classifications:

• A class one nuclear capability could be structured as a combatant which has land, sea and air (space) capability to deliver a nuclear war head anywhere in the world at any time. It will also have the capability of a sustained attack mode where striking once is not its limit from its nuclear arsenal, while striking repeatedly is in its ability when having robust delivery capability. There are only a few nations who may have this level of nuclear delivery within the entire world scope. Retaliation between two in this class could lead to a planet killing result.

• A class two nuclear capability, suggest some items are missing from a class one nuclear arsenal and has some limitation for an extensive duration of launch attacks. It also may be missing an element from land, sea or air (space) launches. However, a class two nuclear capability alarms every nation that a strike may exists anywhere in the world for maximum effect. Its sustaining of nuclear attack has a limited duration since retaliatory action would eliminate its ability for continuation of its nuclear delivery for very long.

• A class three nuclear capability is where the world is teetering upon at this time when a rogue nation does not or has not established itself as a responsible member of the nuclear community. It has launch capability and demonstrates a desire for additional delivery capabilities through sea and air (space) but has not proven it can deliver in all phases of attack. The duration of a strike is limited to a first salvo with a contained effect where the expectation of a second salvo would not exist or can it occur from the lack of having a sustained supply or delivery systems for nuclear weapons. Additionally, a retaliation would be expected from a member of the nuclear nations affirmed by treaty or policy. Simply put, if attacking a non-nuclear nation with a nuclear weapon would also assure a catastrophic result for that attacking nation.

• A class four nuclear capability comes from a terrorist group or a non-national entity who has no place in the governance of nuclear arms and does not want a participation in any nuclear agreement. These elements suggests no rules govern a nuclear group. It’s a one shot attack without accountability. There is no homeland or source in which to deal with its accountability. Delivery systems are primitive from a container ship to a semi-truck which could deliver a “bomb”. Retaliation would be difficult for any nation. A culture of neutralizing threats from terrorist would form and vindication would come from summarily eliminating “potential threats of persons” who may constitute the potential nuclear threat.

Nemo was a fish lost in the ocean searching for its friends and family, as Disney would want a following to accept in fun. However, things are very dangerous and goes beyond Nemo’s exploits. The point of this exercise is defining whose doing what to whom with some astonishing weapons of destruction. It could end life as we now enjoy. Nemo wouldn’t even know where Fukushima came from since a fish swims freely in a world of danger. We are all like Nemo swimming in a dangerous condition. North Korea has a bomb, and thus it can display an immature attitude at the expense of the whole planet. Launching four missiles simultaneously is an implied threat. Nations are using this demonstration in a dangerous game of leverage over another.

China is a North Korean partner. The US is a South Korean partner. The Philippines is a drift in the Chinese/Korean end of the Ocean as well as Japan. Somewhere in between lies US Guam who Kim Jung Um flaunts a missile launch towards. US Guam is threatened, by a "class three nuclear power". By the definitions above, the danger goes up as the classification level drops down, three is a very dangerous level of threat. The policy of mutual destruction does not apply to North Korea or the Terrorists for different reasons. So how can a solution be found?

Retaliation of any kind would involve a Chinese response. It would come out from China’s diplomatic corner it has placed itself into when considering face saving is a big part of what it does. The US can’t just invade, it can’t launch missiles for the sake of South Korea’s peace and there remains a potential escalation of war from a face saving Chinese response. 

The whole stand-off can be broken by an internal regime change in North Korea. Kim Jung Um has place himself in a precarious position with high stakes in play. He must go. North Korea internally must assist as China won’t intervene. North Korea today is 10,000 times more repressive than China. It would be in China’s and the US best interest by filling any regime change vacuum created in North Korea and stop being difficult with one another out of spite. Korea is no longer a potential partner in the world arena of nations. It is just a horrendous example of a repressed people who have lived 60 years as an enslaved humanity. This nation has Stockholm Syndrome and many of its leaders love the repression foisted upon its people.

• Therefore, a regime change is a dangerous proposition which is the best answer in a bad situation for all involved. 

• China needs to “supervise” North Korea when the mad men are removed from power. 

• The US must restrain, but defend the South Korean nation. 

It will take a whole generation of time to solve the damage already done within the North Korean nation. China is best positioned to act as the parent to North Korea’s tantrums. If China won’t act, then it becomes a mere problem child as well. The US needs to lead China through with an amiable solution without having China’s face slapped. China must save face and transform North Korea at the same time. Let the natural selection process of society work-off the insanity out of its culture.

A class three nuclear arsenal is more dangerous than China’s own aspirations as a nuclear nation. It’s time to unravel the yarn and knit together a nation in its place. Defending Nemo is the goal and not jerking on the hook too long is a solution.