All Things 787 Indicates 145 Processed During 2017

After looking at the All Things 787 charts there are listed 92 of Boeing's 787's for delivery during June - December of this year. After five plus months of delivery processing 53 of the 787 were delivered at a 10.6 a month pace. Currently there are 57 delivered through June 10, 2017. The charts also indicate ninety-two  787's should be completing the process by year's end from June 1. This will indicate a total of 145, 787 for the year (53+92= 145). Whether or not that quantity are received by its customers is a strict guess. This depends on the customers urgency, financial ability, and changing market conditions which could all contribute towards a delay on any delivery.

Boeing is positioned to meet guidance for about 138 units delivered during 2017 and it is feasible it could go long and reach beyond 140 of this type delivered during this year. Another observation is Boeing has blown by the Airbus A-350 backlog margin and continues to take orders in a wide body down year. The air shows are yet to come and it will be interesting to see everything shakes out during the Paris Air Show. Backlog is a function of Orders and Deliveries. Boeing having a lower 787 backlog while it has a strong production outflow gives Boeing opportunity to sell more 787 for relevant delivery in a corporation's timeline. However, taking more wide body orders over its competitor also increases financial strength which will reduce its 27 billion deferred cost money  pit.

If Boeing processes 92 from June 1- December 31 1017, it will maintain a build to completion pace of 13 of its 787 a month. This will be a increasing pace as the 787-10 matriculates itself into the production process.

From F-35 Fusion To Commercial Fusion Spins The B-797

The F-35 takes its flying super computer and puts it into function by melding together a complete picture of the battle airspace and use of its weapons. They call it fusion the in F-35 cockpit and its deadly for its adversaries.

Boeing is on the edge of its 20 year R&D march to the 797. Take lessons learned, proven new technology and emerging technology in small doses, then fuse them together into a 797. Boeing doesn't have to look over its shoulder spying Airbus and its NEO because they are stretching further than a New Engine Option a constant Airbus theme. Boeing is going to build something quick and sky shaking in the form of a 797. The fusion comes from its bag of proprietary tricks from engineering, marketing, and its supply bins.

Speculation becomes a currency for this topic. The long wait for a New Medium Aircraft (NMA) is closing with an announcement coming in the next 18 months. The 797 NMA naming is slotted into a hallow slot within the family of Boeing Aircraft. Fusing together Boeing success suggests it will take a road can't and won't follow. Its A321 will become obsolete and a new Airbus frame from the white paper process is ten years off while Boeing will have another five year head start. Ten years if  counting launch customer announcements. Boeing is farther down road than it would like Airbus to know in this case.

Much like the 787 with its revolutionary plastic and all electric concepts, the 797 will reach back and then reach forward within Boeing's objective constraints. After considering this, the 797 will be plastic with a different body. An engine build is up for grabs from three engine makers. A guess is CFM, GE, and Rolls. The engine must come early in the process as the frame formation must work in harmony with the engine mount.

Speculation on things already available:

• Extensive CFRP use.
• Ceramic engine components
• Laminar Flow Technology
• Core electrical architecture
• Big Windows

Speculation on things coming forward

• Elliptical Body
• Extended Range capability
• New Engine Technology
• Use of New CFRP processes using less autoclave application 

Proprietary Engineering comes from Boeing's back lot which even makes Walt Disney envious of his "Imagineering" world. However, today is spending speculation into reality which is a good occupation. Boeing at least is fusing its technology flying into the gap.

The 797 Passenger Experience Maybe A Boeing Egg

The 797 could be built on elliptical lines as depicted below in model "a". Standing at the front of the airplane and looking back is an elliptical cross section. The center line from A  port side to B starboard side would be at the seating passenger level. The ceiling crown could be about 8 Ft from floor to crown. Below the center horizontal line is luggage storage, ancillary freight and aircraft gear. 

Fig. 1 The  "Winging It" 797 MOM/proposed body cross section.

The final design would incorporate the appropriate width and height for the body. However, from this basic design theme would make passenger seating and space at a premium  for the experience. The stronger CFRP advantage will allow a plane framer to find the exact body strength from its width and elliptical height. Boeing has this on paper somewhere near Seattle, WA. Whether Boeing has a rabbit in its hat is hinted by higher-ups near microphones. An all new airplane that will skew the competition into a panic could come from everything 787 but built on an oval. Seat pitch would probably not improve over other models but a seven across seating arrangement could go 20" or more wide quite nicely with this configuration.

The penalty for the design is limiting freight space in the belly. The shape could increase lift (lifting body concept) without having any significant drag increase. Pair the design shape above with a taller landing gear allowing appropriate engine power could make this a world beater and tough to copy as Airbus is known to do.  

The other trick Boeing is working on is reducing weight with a dual aisle arrangement. The elliptical body may do this as its lighter than a 787 frame. The sketch above is exaggerated as to what an actual body cross section would look like as Boeing would push the side in by inches in proportion to the elliptical height as being more likely than this example. However, Boeing would like to find about 20 more inches across from a circle design. All of this enhances the passenger and flight experience for which many airlines are seeking. 

The Boeing doodling in the lab CAD computer can make a paper airplane that works well as the 787 did. All kinds of shapes and sizes are tested first at lab level and then it moves into a wind tunnel model for validation of flight characteristics from the CAD tinkering.

This could show up in Paris later this month but I doubt it. Paris will be all about the 737-10 announcement.

What Others Have Whispered About a Boeing MOM

Many blogs from Winging It have attempted to get its wings around Boeing's Middle of The Market (MOM) aircraft. The refresher talking points about what Winging It thinks is simple (see points below)

• Its gotta go 5,000 miles
• It will be two aisle seven across seating
• Plastic wings and metal body
• Lower cabin pressure equaling the 787
• Down sized from big bodied engine offering

Now DNA from India enters the aviation rumble with its assessment:

"We have looked at the mild and we have looked at the wild and I can tell you we know that if you are going to address that market, you need a new airplane," Tinseth told Reuters after a two-day meeting of airline leaders in Mexico.

The clue is offered, "All New MOM" aircraft from Boeing.

DNA Reported Randy Tenseth:

"The two mid-market models, designed to carry about 220-260 passengers over 3,500 to 5,000 nautical miles (6,400-9,260 km), will also have a wing resembling the distinctive stiletto design of the 787 Dreamliner but with significant internal differences." 

DNA says; "Carbon composites allow manufacturers to make complex pieces in one shape and are well suited to the more elliptical design that Boeing has in mind for the new mid-market fuselage."

Winging It proposed an all metal body in earlier articles but the goal post have moved with technology and a conceptual elliptical plastic body, thus maintaining passenger space. Advances on a build with CFRP makes a case for a plastic body. Every day something new replaces something sort of new. A metal body in the single aisle to Middle of the Market aisle  dual aisle maybe too heavy for a all new MOM  as Boeing wants a template for follow-on design and metal is so yesterday. DNA points out weight and space are critical criteria for a MOM. It can't be too heavy or too narrow and it must fly 5,000 miles and DNA suggest a narrow under body with limited freight space.

Limited freight saves weight, an elliptical oval shape plays into better lift and drag coefficients for flying bodies having a narrower crown and bottom than waste line area. It is built for passenger travel and not everything or the kitchen sink goes into the belly as it will be built for the passenger. The main thing again is weight reduction and an elliptical plastic body achieves less weight, less drag for body width, and more passenger space at the same time. Hence 5,000 miles is its distance bench mark. 

A new frame from scratch allows for new and future engines without having a suffering of little space with ground limitations for which the 737 has for its engines. A taller landing gear gives the MOM the just right engine stance. A clue coming forward would be if a single source engine builder like a 737's talking points or dual engine maker from the 787 plan. If Boeing decides having multiple engine makers does not make the sale, it will go all out with one maker for the MOM. Hence a battle with CFM,GE, and Rolls. Winging IT places a wager on GE engines for the MOM.

What's new over the 787 or 777X? A slew of Boeing innovations accumulated over the last decade. Laminar flow characteristics on the body skin, potentially new CRFP process which eliminates autoclave and pressure treatments, and the possibility of an all electric architecture  similar to the 787. Weight reductions and efficiency will guide the the MOM into existence. Boeing will have an preponderance of "Off-Its Shelf" parts and engineering compliment going into the MOM. If Boeing has already sunk costs into R&D then use it if applicable. If a vendor has a better solution use it. Mentioning losing weight again becomes redundant but is the critical feature of the 5,000 mile MOM and that makes it viable in the world market place.

Will Paris Be A Narrow Body Show?

The up and coming airshow at the Paris Le Bourget Field may promise to be an exciting single aisle or narrow body show: The Boeing 737-10 awaits announcement with orders maybe from these South East aviation players.

Lion Air Could Help Launch 737-10

Maybe:

• Lion Air -100 units
• Spice Jet-75
• Jet Airways-50

All come from South East Asia and India. China has a stake at the Paris Airshow too and there maybe a surprise order at the show from the Chinese region. It will be difficult to speculate what will happen but it is important to note Boeing may carry the show with orders. Singapore may announce its intent for wide body orders with a final signing for 20 777X and 19 more of the 787-10's for its fleet. IF and if only these orders bare fruition during the show, Boeing will have billions in its column.

Airbus is not sitting still and is working harder to make a splash at the show. However, if Boeing captures half the single aisle tally it will add a preponderance of wide bodied aircraft over Airbus aspiration to its tally and fatten the 2017 order book.

Having an order coups over Airbus would definitely make an inroad into the Airbus Single Aisle lead of about 1,200 A-321 over the 400 737-9. A new Boeing model announcement may break the Airbus spell it has over the Single Aisle class.

  

May Summary 787 Reports

Boeing has produced and delivered 12 of its 787 during the month of May. The second half of the year promises to be more robust than the 53 of its 787 delivered. The end of June should rebound the Boeing Trend line when reaching for an estimated 135 of its 787 by year's end. Even though the production queue looks lean in number, it becomes a signal for how efficient the 787 program has become since 2011. Program maturity suggests if Boeing has about a thirty (see fig. 5) in its production line, it will produce and deliver about a dozen by months end where in May 2016 it may have forty-four in its production process while delivering only ten of its 787 by any months end. Boeing should exceed a twelve a month delivered for several months during the next seven months while the other five months during this period should deliver around twelve units (+/-) making for the approximate 135 unit year delivered. It needs about 12 a month (83) for seven months to reach 135-138 units delivered during 2017 and is positioned to do so.  

Fig. 1

The orders portion above is an estimation since Boeing has not officially posted its order book for May which would include West Jet's 10 unit 787 order.

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Boeing Staff Meeting With Laser Pointer 10:00 AM

Yesterday some claims were made by Winging IT. The statement infers that in Airbus' first 884 days delivering its A-350 XWB, it delivered 84 units ending on May 24th 2017. 

The laser pointer is now going to spot the chart on what Winging It was trying to say to the world whom does not pay attention anyways. 

Boeing had its first 884 days of production and what does that look like compared with Airbus? Those who may argue the A-350 was a 787 knock off built on simpler lines of technology and that it should have surpassed Boeing in units after an initial 1,000 days of delivery production. Teething woes can see this graph and surmise.

Refer to the Chart:

Looking at the slope lines does not include units delivered after the first 884 days. Why that number in days? Because data is available for this comparison after Airbus delivered its 84th A-350-9 XWB  on May 24, 2017, during the Airbus 884th day of production. This came after its first A-350 delivery on December 22, 2014 making it a 884 day span of time. In fairness, Boeing also had a first 884 days of production complete with extensive teething woes such as the battery and fastener issues. A far more complex Boeing aircraft was attempted than Airbus could muster forth.

The news improves further when going past Boeing's-February 2014 884th day out from first delivery in September 2011. Boeing now can produce 12, 787 a month  when called upon. Airbus is pacing at about five or six a month, but will increase that number when possible. The great news is Boeing can extend the order book at this time without having its customers wait for aircraft too long of time rather than if  a customer placed an order with Airbus. They will wait longer than three years for delivery unless an early slot opens due to a cancellation. Boeing can now promise its customers a frame under five years time within that customer's five year financial planning model typically used by most all of industry.

The thirty period range represents approximately the first thirty months of production for each Boeing or Airbus WB type offered with the 787 and A-350 class of aircraft. It's time Boeing to take the gloves off the gloves and dominate further. 

Airbus Makes Wide Bodies After Four Years

So, Okay I'm not in the the camp of Airbus. Therefore, fairness becomes a relative proposition when analyzing what's going on in the world of largest airplane maker. Boeing Delivered its first 787 late in 2011. Airbus delivered its first at the end of 2014. Having that demographic in play it's better to break it down into months/days of production for each builder for the 787 or the A-350 making it a fair comparison in time.

Airbus delivered its first A350 during December 22, 2014 and its most recent and last delivery on May 20, 2017. This Airbus time frame is 884 days until its 80th was delivered. What did Boeing do in its first 884 days delivering its 787 compared with Airbus? This will measure how a much more advanced one competes with the other with its production maturity. Of course this will include Boeing's battery fire, fasteners issues, and myriad number of problems during the same number of days after its first delivery in September 2011. 

Here is that score card comparing the Airbus time span of deliveries made since its first on December 22, 2014.

Boeing's first 884 days ended on  February 25 2015 when it delivered its 122nd, 787's in the same span of time of the Airbus 884 days of time, after which Airbus who built a less technologically complex A-350; did not suffer any technological leap hiccups from its using of untried innovations. But has only achieved 84 of its type delivered in the same number of days as Boeing. Here are the Year By Year delivery record of Airbus from the unofficial website, XWB Production List.

  

If any errors are included they will be minor in nature and will not materially contribute with the comparison.

Click Inside Each Chart To See Better Image When Using Windows.

Airbus 2014 A-350 Delivered:

Airbus 2015 A-350 Delivered:

Airbus 2016 A-350 Delivered:

Airbus 2017 A-350 Delivered

Where is Boeing's WB Going In 2017

Boeing has a defining 2017 year. More for how it will preform against Airbus wide bodied orders than number produced. In a declared "down order year" and all things being equal, a relative good order year is beating Airbus with wide body bookings becomes a signature year. Both builders have had a substantial amount time into the market and into its production. Boeing has maintained its lead over Airbus in this division with its 787 booking 1.46 units for  every One A-350 sold. In fact if considering the 777X project, Boeing has expanded that margin of wide body sales over Airbus.

During 2017, Airbus has booked 14 wide bodies  through April including both the A-330, A-350 and Zero for the A-380 orders. Boeing had booked 39 wide bodies during the same time frame. This would include the; 747, 767, 777, and 787 frames.

Not included in this Boeing total is May's already noted 10 West Jet order for 787-9's  and Singapore's LOI for 20 777 and 19 787-10's. There are talks going on at this time with Hainan for more 787-9's which if announced before year's end would make for a respectable Boeing Wide Body order book for 2017. Are there more Boeing surprises remaining in 2017?  Only the 2017 Airshows know for sure. Airbus has little chance in catching Boeing this year for wide body orders which will help Boeing's over-all book balance comparing with Airbus. The prize is both the greatest number produced or orders booked during any given year. This year Boeing has an opportunity for both winning the production and order battle over Airbus.

The key for this assumption is if "other" deals are resolved that have been lost in the recent print history of whom is doing what with orders. A Boeing optimal year (hoped for) is for 100 wide bodies ordered for all its type mentioned above. The minimalist would see Boeing only about 60 wide body orders booked.

However, Airbus needs a rabbit ups it sleeve to catch Boeing for Wide Body orders. Its April ending number of 14 includes the A-330 which is a fleet replacement or a market entry option to the A-350. The optimist sees an Airbus fifty to sixty wide bodies ordered with 20 more A-350's and two dozen more A-330's in the mix. Airbus pessimistic outlook is for a collapse of its wide body order book having only 30 ordered during 2017. 

Common sense always gives way to somewhere in between. The Boeing Order Book midpoint sits at 80 wide body ordered (100-60) and the Airbus midpoint 2017 order book sits at 45 units ordered (60-30).

The China Syndrome Melts Boeing To The Core

In order to build a Chinese market, many incentives have gone the Asian way. An assembly center having both mega builders participating so it may sell immediate products to the mainland Chinese. Shared technology when using inexpensive Chinese resources for R&D and access to the world's markets from these exchanges. However, the goal comes from its government, whom will in every manner possible isolate itself from everything beyond its boarder while consuming everything beyond its boarder at the same time.

Its goal is a world aviation player at the expense of everything offered around the globe. Tens of thousands of its people work every day for finding out how to build an F-35, 787 and a Max 737. The latest foray into high tech endeavor comes from the recent test flight of its C919 single aisle. The common denominator for all flying programs is the engines. China would like to know how GE developed its engine. China may reverse engineer a World product but can it start with a white paper product and move it to the real world market?

China is about to step up and out from its Russian engine mentors and go long with its own rendition of a RR or GE version of engine. These non Chinese makers have been pouring everything they have known about engines into its latest version of maximum thrust and lean burn configured engines. These engine makers have already put on its own electronic drawing board many experienced gained ideas and further refinements. This type of advancing can not be copied by the Chinese at this time or reverse engineered. China will have to demonstrate it can do this in ten years by what the others have done in the last seventy years from advanced engine building.

China has rooms full of engineers working the problem but doesn't have billions of flight hours at its back. It may conceivably rattle the cages of both Boeing and Airbus but it will lay-up short for the next 30 years from where the giant engine builders are today, and where it continues forward. China can and will make dramatic strides forward using available off the shelf advances but having successful innovation is the missing link for all its aspirations for being world’s largest airplane builder. If that goal is reached it will be from a base of isolation and not inclusion. Nationalistic Pride dictates it will build and others will have to wait and wait until given access to China's promise of inclusion.

The above paragraph is one dim outlook towards a three way airplane dominance. Having one private and one co-sharing private with government will compete with one Government directed Chinese maker. It will be an interesting world where the market place may begin to isolate itself from one another out of survival. The only way forward will be a free market place and not an isolated market place. Engine makers will sell to the Chinese maker while the Chinese strive to reverse engineer but can't quite come clean sheet in its forward attempts. The value of experience is forgotten in this case which can't be stolen.