The All You Can Eat Buffet

Aerospace has a billionaire's tentacles reach into the Aircraft Workings. Both Boeing and Airbus must now shake hands with Warren Buffet's investment inceptions inside his manufacturing investment grabs.

Warren Buffet's Biggest Buy: Precision Castparts

"Precision Castparts is not a household name, but its products can be in aircraft, power plants, and various other industrial components. The Boeing 787 and the Airbus 350 are considered integral to its success. Buffett notes, "For good reasons, it is the supplier of choice for the world's aerospace industry, one of the largest sources of American exports."

In the biggest deal of his career -- no small thing when you consider his five decades of investing -- Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B) is acquiring metal parts manufacturer Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP) for $37.2 billion cash.

The deal further enmeshes the conglomerate in the industrial segment of the economy and follows his purchase of Iscar Metalworking in 2006 and chemical maker Lubrizol in 2011.

The Buffet has moved his sizable fortunes into areas where two sizable players, AKA World's largest names, which are bantered back and forth in discussions, and are the real subservient customers for Buffet's musings.

Both Boeing and Airbus need Buffet's directed manufacturing of cast parts in order to fly all its airplanes. Not only are they now handled by Buffet parts, GE goes to the same Buffet Bin of parts for its engine parts when making cast parts for engines on the same aircraft. GE goes along with the military contracts as well.

Buying Precision Castparts is actually a Boeing and Airbus endorsement, through this third party Buffet Checking and Savings accounts, referenced above in his $37.2 Billion cash on the counter purchase. The last time I checked my wallet I had a five, two ones and some loose change. Buffet reached in his wallet and paid cash for the deal. Or he had a team of his staff reach into its brief cases and pull out the cash transaction.

A Retreat is Ordered By Airbus Its Moving Its Australian Sales Kiosk Home

Qantas is no longer talking to Airbus over crumpets in Australia. Boeing is smacking Airbus around the South East Asia region. The Airbus Kiosk is just like the one at the mall which has few curious people walking by its brochure rack, only staffed by a sales person sitting on a stool. 

Its back to Paris for regrouping. Airbus moved its Pacific sales head back in an obvious retreat from a region, since it has not made headway against Boeing.

The Sydney Morning Herald:

Airbus to base new Pacific sales head in France rather than Sydney

What does this all mean? It means that Airbus is regrouping its campaign and strategy on how it will handle the Dreamliner, the Max and the 777X anywhere. The age of Boeing commonality has struck Airbus in its wheel house. Fold the tent and come home. Airbus is in retreat for a while, "call me" is the sign hung right below the For Lease sign, the building owner has hung. 

The same question above is what does this all mean? The second part of this answer, Boeing has accomplished what it stated in the last ten years, and Airbus thought it not possible as if Boeing were doing some awefull boosting, ala Airbus style. They can't, they won't, and its impossible. to do... what did they say? All Airbus thought was we can do the A-350 in sub Dreaming state. Airbus stamped NEO on anything existing and convince its duped customer base with technological platitudes. Boeing was stranded with earning market place loyalty on its comeback. Out comes the Max on paper. It has become a furious paper airplane war between the Max and The NEO. It has become a not so furious paper Airplane war between the 777X and the A-350 / A-380. The 787 is everything the A-350 can't be. It is still mounting orders while the A-350 family stalls at 780 orders. The 787 is currently 1095 orders with multiple 787 orders hanging on the clock of discussions and agreements. By years end this story will gain a validation from the Boeing order book. 

In fact Airbus is losing orders, the longer the airplane wars are fought, rather than gaining orders. The market must know something that outsiders like me don't know. The common Boeing theme is better, than a common Airbus theme, and it shows in its type orders from top to bottom. Even though Airbus held a one year NEO start-up order barrage over the Boeing Max decision coming later in the market sequence, it has since encroached into the Airbus market turf during the last year. Given time for a choice, a customer leans towards Boeing in more cases. Where in the beginning it was a run on the Airbus order book without Boeing having a counter point. It now has become pack your bags and go home Airbus. 

Dog Days Of Summer Feature Rail Guns and Things

Navy Pursuing Upgraded Railgun, Higher-Power Laser Gun By 2020

Am I a Navy guy? No way was I an ex gunny sergeant or a Seaman First class. But I do have an admiration for our nation's critical arm of the military. The new Navy is making whoopee with new weapons. Rail Guns and laser shots are not your Grandfather’s tools. The Navy wants tests on its auto load rail guns, having shells flying out at 10 per minute reaching up to 75 miles spot on targets. It is also going for 150 MW laser shots, that can bring down multiple incoming war heads or melting space space platforms monitoring the battle field. Energy for each is supplied by the ship's engine plant as exampled in the New DDG USS Zumwalt. Currently, the littoral fast attack boats such as the Independence are used for its weapons tests beds. Several littoral types have been tasked for duty for testing downsized weapons arrays of this class.

The Navy Test Platform for Weaponry destined for operational deployment is the Independence

The Year 2020 is a milestone year for the Navy as it will have completed the initial test and install for these weapons mentioned. 

One of two electromagnetic railgun prototypes on display aboard joint high speed vessel USS Millinocket (JHSV 3) in port at Naval Base San Diego on July 8, 2014. US Navy photo.

USNI News:

“Sometime in the very near future” the Navy will award a development contract for the larger follow-on system, a laser gun of 100 to 150 kw. That weapon will go out to sea for a demonstration by FY 2018, he said, keeping in line with the goal of transitioning technology from the lab to the warfighter as quickly as possible for operational testing."

USS Millinocket (JHSV 3)

The Navy is undergoing a Sea Change with its technology and is testing smaller class weapons on its Avant-guarde ships as depicted above. While by 2020 it will be upping its weapons class from 30 MW to a 100 - 150 MW configurations, meeting its intended weapons level.

What all this means it’s better to be in the US Navy than someone else’s Navy no matter where a boat floats or is dry docked.  

Boeing Orders Talks Smack, and Then Banks Deliveries During July 2015

In a summery, Boeing delivered 58 units of all types over Airbus number of 52. Those are cash register deliveries. In other news, Boeing smacked down Airbus with 101 orders for all types, totaling, $15.56 Billion in future revenue receipts, as compared with Airbus' smallish number in comparison. Its July orders are for 26 aircraft from all types, totaling 2.6 Billion in equivalent monetary valuation.

World Largest Aircraft Building At Boeing Everett

The overshot of July with Boeing; it now holds the lead for the annual grand total on both orders and deliveries; at the end of one month past the midpoint in 2015 (Huh? July 31 , 2015). The 423 Boeing total book orders has breathed in a lead over Airbus' own 405 aircraft in total booked so far during 2015. I believe this to be the first official end of the month lead over Airbus for orders during 2015.  I'll check that out since it has been blurted out. Airbus has long held the 2015 order lead since January.

Boeing is well on its way of notching The World’s Largest Aircraft Manufacturer status over Airbus in 2015. Airbus made such a Big deal of obtaining that title during its few years it held that distinction, Winging It thought it take the "Tackiness Badge" away from Airbus bragging points, and start spouting about World's largest award in advance of any Boeing humility over the issue.

Winging It has purposefully been ramping-up the 2nd half of 2015 as a robust push by Boeing on all fronts of the equation. You may know it as the balance sheet equation. End of year predictions are going to be difficult from this peanut gallery position. Any attempt by an amateur from the nose bleed section should not be attempted. However, as far as the 787 are concerned I am still holding firm on about 100, 787 ordered and 130 787 delivered during 2015. The rest of the family has gone rouge for any actual guessing at this point so I am going to take a press view, and not say anything more until checked twice by unidentified sources.  

World's Largest Airplane as Depicted By Airbus In A Vision

Back In 2005 Dixon-Alan Joyce Thought This For Qantas (Updated)

Qantas had just signed for 65, 787 sending part of the order to Jet Star and then optioning for 50 more, totaling 115. The great recession hit, taking the Boeing star customer downtown to the bank, only to find its balance sheet look liked the recession itself, dire. Qantas woke up with a delusion of grandeur headache, and backed off Boeing by firming on 14 787-8 with Jetstar and opting the 50 787-9 to Qantas. Somewhere Qantas dropped 51 orders off before the Bank drive through leaving Boeing with the embarrassment of cancellation, during its Airplane Wars with Airbus. 

However fast forward, it’s the 2nd half of 2015. The ten years of Qantas regrouping brings hope to Boeing. The never-mind people from Qantas are back to studying routes with the 787-9 as the Qantas "what if" kids on the block can cipher its way into a purchase with Boeing.  

Australian Business Traveler Quotes: From 2005 and on

"Its new technology engines, cutting-edge airframe and increased seat count also offer a significant reduction in costs per ASK compared to the current Boeing 767." Mr Dixon said Qantas' current order was a mix of B787-8 and later model B787-9 aircraft. "When the B787-9 model is ready for service in 2011, it will represent an even greater engineering breakthrough, flying further than the B787-8 but with capacity for 50 additional passengers," he said." 

ASK used in Australia or: Available Seat Miles (ASMs) used in USA; Per MIT Glossary

A common industry measurement of airline output that refers to one aircraft seat flown one (K=Kilometer, M=Mile), whether occupied or not. An aircraft with 100 passenger seats, flown a distance of 100 miles, generates 10,000 available seat miles.

"Mr Dixon said the B787's lighter fuselage, which was constructed from composite material, allowed the aircraft to: 

* fly further with a full payload; 

* burn less fuel; 

* fly faster than any other aircraft of its size; and 

* reduce maintenance costs. 


"The composite fuselage also allows increased window size and a lower cabin altitude pressure that reduces the effects of jetlag." 

Remembering my own School of Business motto, "Time is Money" (not) Lux Et Veritas (Likely).

Time is pushing Qantas. They must of already computed the routes in modeling programs after long ago when receiving inputs for weights, winds, and distances using the Boeing performance data. It’s more likely the route study was completed before this intersection of discussion for the 787-9 vs the A-350, as just announced. 

Remembering, they just dissed the A-350-9 as a no go, because they did a side by side with the 787-9, and it came out as a Boeing win. Thus claiming its Business model and routes traveled suited choosing Boeing 787-9 best.

Australian Business Traveler Quote:

"We looked at both types of aircraft, on what the relative positions of the A350 and Boeing 787 were, and we found on all accounts the 787-9 was the better aircraft for us, for the market that we're talking about and the network that we're talking about" Joyce said."

Therefore, suggesting Qantas is waiting for route outcomes on its study for the 787-9 is only honoring the Santa Clause in its working papers, after backing the decision to go with Boeing. They are checking it twice for the stock holders (Santa Clause)! 

The Sydney Morning Herald Chart

Qantas: Will Boeing 787 dreams finally become reality?

Qantas is avoiding buyer’s regrets for some potential anguished investors buying-in on the upcoming Boeing-deal announcement. In advance they have done its due diligence, and can answer every question with authority. Everything is backed by research, planning and conclusions. The only thing(s) lacking is a Boeing-deal, is a Qantas implementation of its plan for it to become a reality instead of just a Dream.

El Al Files Closer to Buying New 787 Dreamliner Fleet

"New planes are earmarked for medium- and long-distance flights, including New York, Boston, Toronto and South Africa. 

El Al is in advanced negotiations with Boeing and a number of aircraft leasing companies for the purchase of 15 Boeing 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner airliners, the world’s most advanced aircraft. The deal will include the option of purchasing 13 additional aircraft and spare engines."

The Second half of 2015 has always been a target time for 787 in 2015. This blog has consistently advanced the notion that part II of 2015 will bring an abundance of orders for the 787 family of aircraft. The news above suggests this will happen before 2015 ends. Combing with Qantas in-the-works for ordering, is shaping up as a bonus 787 Boeing Year over its A-350 competitor. Long ago Winging It established a projection for the 2nd half of 2015 as peak moment for the 787 order book making further separation with the A-350 order book. This bit of news confirms that projection of orders is in-the-works.

The over-all compilation of orders-in-the-works has not yet reached a climax, but from October to December of 2015, Boeing will complete a big order cycle. The Boeing production machine has made this possible, churning out almost 12 a month, which has spurred customers moving sooner rather than later on the order book. While Airbus remains finding its own production legs, having only delivered a handful of A-350 since its first delivery during December 2014. Mainly, Airbus delivering to its clientele favorite, Qatar.

I don't doubt Airbus capability for its A-350 in production or flight performance. However, after hearing Alan Joyce, Qantas, remark, "we have studied the A-350 and find the 787 a perfect fit for our market", or something close to that statement. Making this a strong indication that the post A-350 Rush To Orders (RTO) period is complete. The closing of RTO for Airbus signals a long drawn out effort for its marketing team for its participation in the Airplane Wars. It means Boeing has started reloading its own Order Book in the Post RTO period in the face of delivered A-350's. All participants have now had a chance to weigh both mega builders’ proposals for new aircraft when currently flying its Airbus type, while the 787 is gaining momentum during 2015. Boeing's head start on the production backlog gives it the high ground. 

Boeing's 787 superior performance with 304 models flying, demonstrates a competitive advantage over Airbus in side by route matching battles while exposing its A-330 as a pretender. The A-330 in service has become the retirement aircraft of choice. Qantas will be a good example for that metric, when its orders the 787-9 this fall. 

The RTO period began with Boeing in 2004 and ended 2007. In 2007/2008 Airbus started gaining strength for its A-350 order book while Boeing started its Post 787 Announcement slow period in 2008.

Boeing RTO

* Year To Date On Article Date
Airbus RTO  Period
Boeing Post Airbus RTO Period Market Stability

Note: Boeing has no negative cancellation (netted) on its books, as compared with the A-350. The A-350 shows two negative net years in 2011 and 2014 for a total of 63 net A-350 cancellations. I guess that could happen to anybody, but it happened to Airbus slowing down its RTO surge and essentially stop its A-350 type growth where Boeing is just now gaining new strength from recent Customer leanings towards the 787 family of aircraft.

Airbus A350 orders and deliveries by year

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Total
Orders	2	292[2]	163[3]	51	78	-31	27	230	-32	1	781
Deliveries	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	1	4	5

This is roughed in result assigning RTO for Boeing 2004-2007

The Airbus Chart shows an immediate -350 reaction in 2007, and then it settles in with order book cancellation during 2011. It also lost 70 from Emirates in 2014 taking a second negative year during its initial RTO period which ended in 2013.

Note, both Airbus and Boeing open up with 787-10 and A350-1000 ordering during 2013. It’s a transition year for both makers.

Now Boeing is positioned to make a statement at the Next Big Show. It can announce the Post RTO era belongs to the Boeing 787.  Dubai Airshow is next up and may have some surprises at the show if enough notary stamps are available for signing. Prediction: Boeing will go plus 100 787 ordered in 2015, and Airbus will lose lift and stall out? Yes it will! 

'Under the order wing", during last couple of weeks:

• EVA Air 24-26,  787     In Discussions
• Qantas  50,      787-9  Under Consideration
• EL AL    15/13  787     In Discussions almost complete Intent Annonced

Total: 90 787's not including options gained within the 2015 time frame.

Adding the 25 (net) already booked for 2015 could result 
with a 112-115, 787 total order book during 2015. This sales order number could even go higher! 

The Qantas 787-9 Order Is All But Announced

The Quote  Of The Day: CAPA

Qantas says A350 was evaluated, but Boeing '787-9 is a better aircraft for us'

CEO Alan Joyce, at the CAPA Australia Pacific Aviation Summit, said (04-Aug-2015) the Boeing 787-9 “is a great replacement aircraft for some of the 747s over time.” Mr Joyce noted the carrier evaluated the A350 but: “We found in our minds the 787-9 is a better aircraft for us in the markets and network we’re talking about.” Mr Joyce said the recent agreements with pilots to operate the 787-9 “was a major step in the right direction” but noted: “We’re working through the fleet economics, the route economics to see if we can justify the 787s... We’re working through that process now.”

The Qantas Slope towards its 787-9 order announcement has steepened with this above corporate mention. Alan Joyce is almost falling over himself trying to keep 787-9 Boeing order a secret, when it has become eminent that Qantas will pull the plug on an order announcement.

The order book dreaming can start again. At the end of the Third Qantas quarter, 2015, I would expect its Ducks would be in a row for ordering a plethora 787’s during October 2015. It is on the books for 50 options. That number could change in a confirmation order. The two points hanging are what Qantas dreams about and what is the least we can do when being overly cautious. More than 50 is dreaming and less than 25 is overly cautious.

The question now remains, if fleet expansion is in the works beyond its 2009 goals. Given that the 747 are going into retirement and the A330’s will be phased out of the fleet when 787-9 deliveries commence. But what about Qantas’ Fleet Vision tied to its Market goals? How much is Qantas going to attack the region, or in reality half the World with the 787-9’s?   

Many questions have been answered behind closed doors for Qantas, but a confirmed order announcement will tell the rest of the story for the airline.

·      A 25. 787-9 order suggest a cautious status quo with no competitive expansion in the near future.
· A 50, 787-9 order matching its option quantity is a middle of the road order living up to its original vision of renewing the fleet in total.
·  Greater than 50 is a rewrite of its original vision as it sees itself as a real competitor for the region.

Winging It considers a Qantas 50 with a new options added for both the 787-10 and 787-9 on the books as flexing its wings for future intentions. Qantas does not seek a status quo conditions as its regional competitors no long consider Qantas a real threat to its own expansions. Singapore, Etihad and China see the emergence of the 787 family, a game changer opening up new markets longer away from home base. Australia and New Zealand are in the cross hairs for expansion from Japan as well. Qantas is forced to react or die as a competitor.

The announcement quoted from CAPA is an emergency flare gunshot signaling Qantas ready to take on the region and save its stake in the “Airplane Wars”. It has its ducks in a row. Cross the T’s dot the I’s let’s go Boeing is the above quote.

MIT Crib Notes On The Airline Businesss

Starting somewhere is more important than not starting at all. MIT has provided information for airline readers with a handy and accurate guide, information, and summations considered in the "industry". I often run into terminology which is sometimes misused or confusing when a writer pulls a term into its article is ill fitted for the curious reader. I may have done the same in the past, but now I want to include a website which can be referenced, when alphabet soup is what's for dinner in an article. An author may assume everyone knows what CASM means, and yet does not explain it in the article well. 

Below are the MIT crib notes in Glossary format for your information with a lucid understanding of acronyms bantered about aviation: Expect a follow-up article using MIT Project terminology, so I can act smarter than a freshman at MIT.

Reference Link: MIT Data Project Glossary

Aircraft Utilization
Measure of aircraft productivity, calculated by dividing aircraft block hours by the number of aircraft days assigned to service on air carrier routes. Typically presented in block hours per day.

Available Seat Miles (ASMs)
A common industry measurement of airline output that refers to one aircraft seat flown one mile, whether occupied or not. An aircraft with 100 passenger seats, flown a distance of 100 miles, generates 10,000 available seat miles.

Average Aircraft Capacity
Average seating configuration of an airline’s operating fleet. The measure is derived by dividing total available seat miles flown by the number of aircraft miles flown. It is important to understand the average aircraft size as it is an important determinant of employees needed to service the operation of a particular airline.

Block Hour
Time from the moment the aircraft door closes at departure of a revenue flight until the moment the aircraft door opens at the arrival gate following its landing. Block hours are the industry standard measure of aircraft utilization (see above).

Cost per Available Seat Mile (CASM) 
Measure of unit cost in the airline industry. CASM is calculated by taking all of an airline’s operating expenses and dividing it by the total number of available seat miles produced. Sometimes, fuel or transport-related expenses are withheld from CASM calculations to better isolate and directly compare operating expenses.

Unit Cost per Unit of Output
A measurement that gauges total operating costs in relation to output.

Form 41 Data 
Information derived from airline filings with the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Airline financial data is filed with the BTS quarterly; traffic and employment numbers are filed monthly.

Load Factor
The number of Revenue Passenger Miles (RPMs) expressed as a percentage of ASMs, either on a particular flight or for the entire system. Load factor represents the proportion of airline output that is actually consumed. To calculate this figure, divide RPMs by ASMs. Load factor for a single flight can also be calculated by dividing the number of passengers by the number of seats.

Operating Revenue
Revenues received from total airline operations including scheduled and non-scheduled service. Sources of revenue include passenger, cargo, excess baggage and certain other transport-related revenue.

Passenger Revenue
Revenue received by the airline from the carriage of passengers in scheduled operations.

Passenger Revenue per Available Seat Mile (PRASM)
Often referred to as a measure of passenger “unit revenue.” It is calculated by dividing passenger revenue by available seat miles. Typically the measure is presented in terms of cents per mile. This measure is equivalent to the product of load factor and passenger yield (see below).

Passenger Yield
Measure of average fare paid per mile, per passenger, calculated by dividing passenger revenue by revenue passenger miles (RPMs). Typically the measure is presented in cents per mile and is useful measure in assessing changes in fares over time. Yield is not useful for comparisons across markets and/or airlines, as it varies dramatically by stage length and does not incorporate load factor (unlike PRASM).

Revenue per Available Seat Mile (RASM)
Also called "unit revenue," this figure is calculated by dividing the airline’s total revenue by its total the available seat miles.

Revenue Passenger Miles (RPMs)
This is the basic measure of airline passenger traffic. It reflects how many of an airline's available seats were actually sold. For example, if 200 passengers fly 500 miles on a flight, this generates 100,000 RPMs.


Revenue per Employee
One measure to determine an airline’s labor productivity. It is calculated by dividing an airline’s total revenue by the number of airline employee full-time equivalents as reported to the US Department of Transportation.

Stage Length 
The average distance flown, measure in statute miles, per aircraft departure. The measure is calculated by dividing total aircraft miles flown by the number of total aircraft departures performed.

Stage Length Adjusted Total Revenue per Equivalent Seat Mile (SLA TRESM)
A common practice utilized to normalize comparisons of TRASM between carriers. Operating costs and revenues are significantly impacted by the distance flown and this analytical approach is designed to compare results as if all carriers fly the same missions.

Stage Length Adjusted Passenger Revenue per Equivalent Seat Mile (SLA PRESM)
A common practice utilized to normalize comparisons of PRASM between carriers. Operating costs and revenues are significantly impacted by the distance flown and this analytical approach is designed to compare results as if all carriers fly the same missions.

Stage Length Adjusted Passenger Yield (Passenger Revenue Per Revenue Passenger Mile)
A common practice utilized to normalize comparisons of Passenger Yield between carriers. Operating costs and revenues are significantly impacted by the distance flown and this analytical approach is designed to compare results as if all carriers fly the same missions.

Total Revenue per Available Seat Mile (TRASM)
Often referred to as a measure of unit revenue. It is calculated by dividing total operating revenue by available seat miles. Typically the measure is presented in terms of cents per mile. 

Transport-Related Revenues (Costs)
Transport-related revenues (or costs) are revenues (or costs) that result from service operated by a regional affiliate of a network carrier. Such revenues (or costs) are often excluded from RASM or CASM calculations to allow network carriers to be compared directly with carriers that do not offer service using regional affiliates.