Its Cheat Sheet Time What's Airbus Thinking?

Charts Below tell the bigger wide body story. I have purposefully not included the A330NEO because it does not meet conditions of the wide body only new options. The 787 is all new, the 777-300ER is really a wide body. The A350 is Airbus in the making of its all new wide body. The 777X self explanatory.

The Airbus A350 family is an all new family as will be the 777X, and the 787-9 and 787-10 members are gaining status. I will use those types in the trench warfare analysis of the new wide bodies, since every customer considers those model when making a choice. The 787-8 is almost four years long in its delivery life, and steps on the toes of Airbus everywhere it flies. Since the 777-300ER has been flying for some time I will look at backlog comparisons only and not look at the front end for ordering  yet until I score first the backlog.

Airbus has  778 Airbus A350 in waiting for delivery;
Boeing has 515, 777's in the same status.
Boeing has 826 787's in Backlog status.

Head count status is scored:

Boeing  1,341 wide bodies to be delivered
Airbus     778
WB Net   543  Boeing WB has the advantage over the Airbus WB offering  by 542 units.

Airbus A350

2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Total
Orders	2	292[2]	163[3]	51	78	-31	27	230	-32	–	780
Deliveries	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	1	–	2

 777's        Ordered-  Delivered-  Backlog

777-300ER	768	539	229

777X	286	-	286

Total	1054	539	515

787-8

467

232

787-9

467

15

787-10

139

–

Total

1,073

247

Backlog  TTL

–

–

826

Boeing has six Wide Body models in play.

In every conceivable fold of the Wide Bodied market is seating 200 to 405 passengers, Boeing has Airbus covered with superior performing aircraft for every airline tasks. Even though this has been pieced together out of plans in a parade of announcements, from the 787-8 through the 777-9X. Boeing has achieved a bracketing barrage of models all having the same common avionic controls and servicing attributes required for modern airline singular focused maintenance operations. Mechanics are tuned to commonalities in the six model offerings, as well as the flight crews. Operations manuals from the airline can be written in thematic sequence even though models may vary by size and layout.

The A350-1000 is not a match for the 777-X family. The A350-900 is a one trick pony lost in  the shuffle of  market fitting against its multi-layered competitors, the 787-8,, 787-9, and 787-10. Let's face it, the A350-800 is dead on arrival.

Boeing has to deliver 1,341 wide bodies it has amassed and backlogged, during the same time period Airbus had, and where it now has only has a 779 units to deliver for its future wide body deliveries. Boeing is out pacing Airbus significantly in the realm of duo aisle offerings. Throw in some A330 NEO's and it still falls short.

Adding insult to enjury Boeing is about to take on some robust 787 orders this year.

Somebody here, suggested I should add the A330 NEO's and being charitable since I added the 777-300ERs, I did that as found below. So For John Leahy and the gang at Airbus, a crowd pleasing A330 Neo is added by 120 unbuilt units. Combined with the 779 "unbuilt" A350's, the Airbus WB equaling a total of 898 unbuilt wide bodies in backlog.

Wide Body backlog revised with NEO:

Boeing 1341

Airbus   898

Boeing totals 442 more wide bodies in the numbers game. However at Boeing's production rate they will equal Airbus wide body backlog sooner rather than later while taking on more orders for its wide body offerings. Its a simple choice between 6 models to choose from or two (+A330 NEOs) models to choose from. Expanding airlines needs choice over one size fits all approach.

Below is the Much To Do About Nothing Airbus Extravagant Order Chart (MTDANAEOC) 

Airbus A330neo Firm Orders

Date of Firm Order	Country	Customer	Aircraft Type		Combined
			800neo	900neo
Totals			10	110	120
24 Dec 2014	Taiwan	Transasia Airways	4	0	4[28]
23 Dec 2014	Ireland	Avolon	0	15	15[27]
18 Dec 2014	United States	Hawaiian Airlines	6	0	6[30]
15 Dec 2014	Malaysia	AirAsia X	0	55	55[25]
3 Dec 2014	United States	CIT Group	0	15	15[24]
19 Nov 2014	United States	Delta Air Lines[n 1]	0	25	25[22]

    

I was going to front load orders in this part and compare the wide bodies, but I could not find John Leahy for comment before I proceeded. The order part is far bigger than the backlog approach so I will let this one rest since Airbus needs a break.

Twelve Is Boeings' Theme In February

After the malaise of January, Boeing has recouped its annual pace within the 90 Day average going forwards with a 12.33 moving average number during February, after delivering 12 during the 28 day period.  Of course March will have 31 days for customers gathering funding and Boeing building aircraft, so it should meet its prescribed 10 a month pace. The First Quarter will be a 90 day Quarter for the 90 Day Moving average. Making it a true match with the calendar and time. Second quarter 2015 has 91 days factoring the 90 day moving average.

Goal +/-                          *12/2014    **01/2015         Projecting    February-   (actual) Delta 

Month Deliveries              18             **7.0              10              12.0                     +5

3 M-M-avg                      11.67          10..33              10              12.33                   +2.33

Production Goal               10               10                 10               10                         0

Delivery Trend (+/- )       +8.                  +.33                       . 0             +2.33       Target....  >                

                                     *PM-Start      **M.A.P.                         PMs-Ending

*Progression Months Start

**Moving Average Progression mid-point

The 90 Day Background Noise:

• Holidays are done and the pause is dispatched without any significant retooling.
• More orders looming for Terrible Teens (@10)
• 787-9's hitting production pacing during the holidays
• The 787-9's, 787-10's are in market battles with the A350's with Turkish Airlines and Emirates.
• It will be a "analyst year" over ordering either an Airbus or Boeing type.

787-8 Is The Cup Half Full In March 2015

It all began on September 25th 2011 when ANA received its first 787-8. Two more were delivered in 2011. Three 787-8's in four months.

2012 passed with Boeing getting its arms around production:
2013 showed the world it had a battery problem and it could build it regardless.
2014 diversified with the  787-9 as they delivered 104 787-8's and 10 787-9's

787-8's Delivered                   Total Backlog  467
2011      3                                Book Balance  464
2012:   47                                                         417
2013:   64                                                         348                                                                
2014:  104                                                        244
2015:   10                                                         234  48.8% delivered 51% backlogged

Total 228 delivered out of 467 is about 48% of total 787-8 backlog making it half the order book of 787-8's delivered in about 42 months from September 2011. Boeing will not deliver the glass half empty side in the same amount of time. It is switching over to a prominent 787-9 profile and a 787-10 is coming into the system making the 787-8 an also ran in production. Its numbers will slump down to maybe 50 a year in 2016. The 787-9 will pick-up the annual balance with about Seventy. Boeing will go to about 140 787 a year when the 787-10 starts delivery.

2017 full production should be as follows:

50-55 787-8's according to how module mixing and customer delivery preference is managed.
70-75 787-9's
20-25 787-10's

When on a full delivery schedule the backlog/production will look something like this if no more orders occur from today on any model.

787-8's at 50 a year now has a five year backlog
787-9 at 70 a year has about a 6 year back log
787-10 at 20 a year has about a seven year backlog from the time of its first delivery.

The 787-8 ordering is going to come back since the backlog has shrunk to 234.
The 787-9 will have a steady order appeal of about 50 every year forward.
The 787-10 could have a break-out year during 2015-2016 ordering period.

The 787-10's are not in final configuration until after it test flies. It may reach further than the early estimation of a 7,200 mile range. Boeing has now claimed 25% fuel improvement comparing it with prior generation similar class aircraft. It also has lost some more frame weight and gained more aerodynamic improvements. Boeing estimated conservatively with the 787 family of aircraft during design and computer modeling phase. The 787-8 smashed the conservative estimate of 15% fuel savings coming out of modeling by almost 5% as it flies at about 20% improvement. The 787-9 is exceeding expectations as well with its customers raving about the aircraft performance. What this does with my thinking is make me more confident the 787 family is no lie. Boeing is staying on script and not making claims off computer modeling until it flies. IF as a big if, the 787-10 can manage more than the 8.038 mile range already claimed (coming from the last research number on the 787-10), then orders flow in earnest as it will go to 95% of the world's long thin routes. The Boeing family of aircraft may make Airbus rethink its A350 strategy when the 777X flies for customers.

So Much To Do So little Time US DDG1001

The second DDG 1001 is apply named the Michael Monsoor. On deck is the Zumwalt, and now in its muster is the Michael Monsoor, gracing Bath Iron Work. Michael Monsoor selflessly gave his life in Iraq, earning the medal of honor for his Nation, friends, and family.






Now you know this ship is important its about the American spirit, bravery and commitment for its nation.

Next ship up is the DDG1002 Lynden B Johnson. Stay tuned

PS The 155mm Rail gun rocks:

Qatars A350 finds Ground Hog Day

So much so, its lead henchman, Al Baker is on a business trip today making cover for its not yet delivered 2nd A350.

Arabian AeroSpace:

"Qatar’s CEO Akbar Al Baker is in Berlin next week for the ITB, the world’s largest travel and tourism show where is expected to reveal initial operating data for the A350 and to advertise the arrival of the second aircraft. - See more at:

http://www.arabianaerospace.aero/qatar-set-to-speed-up-service-entry-for-delayed-second-a350.html#sthash.0LZnnU0N.dpuf

It was announced for February 17, 2015 delivery but in Boeing-esque style the plane simply is not ready for Qatar today. Should someone worry, "Nah"? Its built and has tires to roll on and fly. Akbar Al Baker is doing his due diligence at ITB.

Let me give homage to the ground hog on February's last day. "Haven't we been here before?" The do-over is an uncanny salute for the groundhog's  big day. Airbus has two A350 out in over two and a half months. Very Boeing like during its own last three months during 2011 when it delivered three 787's amongst all the mad dashing on the Everett plant floor. The French version is letting Al Baker go to IBT with a shrug. Let the Airbus sales team unleash a barrage of hyperbole. As Qatar face slapped Lufthansa a few times when it remarked, "The Qatar A350 is better than Lufthansa stuff". "Hey wait a minute Lufthansa ordered some A350's too." Its Airbus IBS going on here so take an antacid Qatar and go to IBT.

The operating data is what brought the conferees to IBT. Its how Al Baker couches the data that will cause Boeing some response. Al Baker is not necessarily deferring over to Airbus as a sole fan for the A350 but he too likes center stage so he has purposed the A350 in some of its most glamorous locations like Frankfurt which is very near where Lufthansa operates. Coincidence, I think not, Because he has already taken exception to Lufthansa fleet by calling inferior to Qatar's fleet having the A350 as the example in the Lufthansa market. Interesting who this premier Middle East carrier is going after in a market segment with such language towards a competitor. Its not anti Boeing but a anti Lufthansa sentiment. Could it be over all those 777X's Lufthansa ordered? Or is it something else up Al Bakers sleeve?

The whole A350 delivery delay and IBT meeting will smoke out more details concerning this Qatar chapter. Its more much ado about nothing marketing in play. A larger game board comes out on how much loads into aircraft interiors. The Boeing efficiency vs Airbus customer space is in play as Airbus says it can stuff the bus with more passenger amenity. Saying its greater than the 787 family of Aircraft. Qatar went with the 787-8 early even though it was not an aircraft suitable for Qatar space grandeur. Now they have the A350 which has started bumping the Boeing 787's over to less glamorous routes. What all this means is Qatar pride focuses on the best show in the air. Not necessarily the best airplane for the task. However, the 777-X has not played out in the market place which would be more suitable for Qatar sensibilities where Qatar ordered 50 of its type.

Boeing's 100 787 Order Book in 2015 Preview (update*)

It will be the 12 Days of Christmas Theme song playing all through 2015 as Boeing cleans up house on the 787 order book. Remember Qantas has 50 787-9 dangling for its corporate fit and finish. They are waiting for check list items occurring in the Qantas things-to-do book before we go gonzo and order those options.

• Profitability on long range range routes Check. 
• Operational change management completed when wages are settled for the long haul time period (not checked but close). 
• Finally all inefficiencies identified are fixed (profitability is a good indicator those items are getting checked). 

So here is a brief dreamer 12 days of Christmas wish book headcount:

• 2 Booked already in 2015
• 50 Qantas 787-9 options leaning
• 8 Teen Old Maids partnered (Ethiopian)
• 2 Teen Old Maids  partnered (Air Austral)
• 4 Tahiti Nui 787-9's almost booked
• 3 ANA 787-10 order to be signed on.
• 14 787-9s from Spain’s Air Europa 

Total in play = 83 787 orders $20 billion (US) estimated based on best information sales pricing

10 Terrible Teens 100 million each discounted         1    Billion
 2  already booked about 200 million each                   .5 Billion
68 787-9 at 250 million each                                    17    Billion
 3 787-10 about 350 million each                               1.4 Billion

Total dollars in play for noted purchases in place is about  $20 Billion US
        
Seventeen to go to go by Boeing sales teams. They could make it to 100 EOY 2015 with some or little effort. In fact they may exceed 100 787 ordered in 2015 by dozens or more.

• Turkish Airlines Wants some wide bodies either from Boeing or Airbus.
• Emirates ponders for more 787-10's or A350-900's. ( I'm betting on Boeing)

This could cinch up about 150 787's ordered for 2015.

Those are critical Boeing battles, which will tell investors an insightful story. A Boeing victory on those two customers will establish a Boeing bragging point over Airbus.

What is intriguing is the 8,055 mile number Boeing has hung out there for the 787-10 flight legs. This will turn some orders over to Boeing away from Airbus. It can make it to all the existing money routes, which is the number one questions from all its potential customers. Can it go to the Middle East or the Orient from here? "Yes it can!" Boeing answers.

Here are prior years 787 year order numbers:

2012 - 41
2013 -183
2014 - 65
Total=289

Average = 96 per year booked during the last three years.

Least We Forget, It's The 787-10 Coming

The daily research and Winging It Team remains, grabbing  appealing news articles, and commenting on the content. Even though the focus is usually on the stock market darlings, the 787-8 and 787-9, let us not forget the 787-10 and its promising features. So as this blogging tradition uses a duo battle of words ensuing for your consideration and aircraft sensibility. The journaling leading this dance is Aerospacetechnology.com. Please refer to the actual article with the link provided below. Its advertisers and "Aerospace Technology" will appreciate your visit as it has done all the heavy lifting on this article. My commentary is for your own background opinion forming.

Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner, United States of America

"Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner, the latest and longest member in the Boeing 787 family of commercial aircraft, was officially launched at the 2013 Paris Air Show in Le Bourget, France, in June 2013.

The new Dreamliner can reach a distance of 12,964km, covering more than 90% of the world's twin-aisle routes. It is expected to be 25% more fuel efficient compared with other aircraft of similar size.

It is currently being designed at the Everett facility in Washington and final assembly is scheduled to begin in 2017 in North Charleston, South Carolina, US. First delivery is expected in 2018."

12,964 kilometers is about 8,055 miles. I don't know if that represents a full load or an average load aircraft. The claim of 25% improvement from fuel economy over last generation models of like size is remarkable. It does not state whether that is the 767-300 ER or another Boeing 777-200 type aircraft for the improvement comparison. It sounds like I have to do more work on that number.

They are also suggesting a single barrel segment eliminating joining barrels in the main passenger area. I would assume the wing box area is inclusive of the single barrel part of the airplane. Hence the necessary forming is required in the Charleston facility as no special transportation vehicle exist by air for that length of a part. I would also assume a separate nose nose and tail module will be freighted to the Charleston facility. The conclusion: there will be three sections and two joins for Boeing's longest 787.

Orders and deliveries

"The new Dreamliner can reach a distance of 12,964km."

All Nippon Airways (ANA) placed a $1.4bn order for three 787-10 Dreamliners in January 2015. GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS), meanwhile, placed a $2.9bn order for ten aircraft in September 2013.

Air Lease Corporation (ALC) has also finalised a $9.4bn order for 30 787-10 and three 787-9 aircraft.

Boeing received commitments for 102 787-10 aircraft from five customers at the 2013 Paris Air Show. These include 30 aeroplanes from Air Lease Corporation, ten from GE Capital Aviation Services, 12 from International Airlines Group / British Airways subject to shareholder approval, 30 from Singapore Airlines and 20 from United Airlines.

The 787-10 has significant orders as it will launch and it will turn head. I would expect laminar flow technology inclusive, in addition to the other improvements mention in the article. Future orders will be significant once it proves its worth during testing and numbers can be shared with customers interested in the 787-10.  Important notations are two numbers, the 25% fuel improvement and the 90% of routes are within its claimed range. The computer modeling from Boeing has been spot on throughout the 787 project. These numbers won't be a Boeing boast. In fact a sub category of "long range city pairings with high density traffic", may be closer to 100% after further review. The 787-9 will clean up on all the long range city pairings with any passenger density at all with 100%. This makes the 787-10 the prodigal son coming home and completing the family.

Design features

"The aircraft incorporates a unique one-piece composite barrel and all-composite wing structure integrating small fairings and raked wingtips.

The single-piece barrel construction effectively eliminates all longitudinal skin splices for reducing weight and maintenance costs. It also avoids fuselage lap joints, doublers and skin overlap, resulting in lesser maintenance inspections.

Simple pivot trailing-edge flaps feature fewer parts and ensure much smaller flap-track fairings, resulting in efficient lift-to-drag characteristics for reductions in fuel consumption and costs.

787-10's wing structure, made of composite materials such as carbon laminate and carbon sandwich, provides a higher aspect ratio, which, combined with efficiency-enhancing raked wing tips, enables the aircraft to achieve a maximum cruise speed of up to Mach 0.85 with less fuel consumption."

I mention before laminar flow technology as a 1% er efficiency improvement. The 25% is real on the computer and will be better during testing phase. This is the Ultimate Game Changer (UGC) for those seeking profits when buying aircraft. The word best describing this phenomenon is a 787-10 "Urgency" purchase.

787-10 technical specifications

The aircraft will have a cross section of 574cm, wing span of 60m, length of 68m and height of 17m. Its maximum take-off weight will be 252,651kg and total cargo volume will be 175m³, which is 41% and 13% more than that of the 787-8 and 787-9, respectively.

In standard configuration, it will accommodate 323 passengers, which is 33% more than the capacity of 787-8 and 15% more than 787-9.

In US passenger terms, its 225 inches wide, wing span 196 feet, and 223 feet long. other dimensions. I need a calculator!

Cabin details

"The Boeing 787-10 will be powered by either Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 or GE Aviation GEnx-1B engines."

A spacious and comfortable cabin, with large dimmable windows, adjustable soft LED lighting and a facility to introduce clean and healthy air, can be found on the aircraft.

It also includes spacious stowage bins and quieter interior. The typical seating arrangement includes 247 economy seats, 58 business seats and 18 first-class seats.

The adjustable windows allow passengers to regulate the intensity of light entering from outside. They are fitted with an electrochromic dimming system, which changes the tint of the window from completely transparent to fully dim.

The comfortable feel of the cabin is enhanced by soft LED lighting. This can be adjusted as per the flying modes such as boarding, flight, relaxing, serving meal, sleeping and pre-landing.

Cabin altitude is pressurised to a maximum level of 6,000ft to 2,000ft lower than most other aircraft.

Engine

The Boeing 787-10 will be powered by either Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 or GE Aviation GEnx-1B engines. The Trent 1000 engine will generate a maximum thrust of 78,000lbf, whereas the GEnx-1B will provide a maximum take-off thrust of 76,100lbf.

GEnx engines include high-pressure compressors and twin-annular pre-swirl combustors, as well as lightweight and durable composite materials. They feature 3D aerodynamics in the low pressure turbine and are the first to use Ti Aluminide blades.

Conclusion: Everything right about the 787-9 is stuffed into the 787-10 leaving a lot of weight behind. The 787-10 transitions the market gap from 787 to 777X. Continental routes could go high density on lower fuel demands. Trans Oceanic market has another great tool for moving vacationers to preferred destinations. The 787-10 is not just a "Stepchild", it is the first born "Stepchild" or the UGC, completing the 787 family. I believe I will wait in vane for the 737 to 787 stepchild found in the down slot, and I will shelve its name "Goldenliner for later".

The Cause and Effect Of Low Fuel Cost

The stock market is taking a pause on Boeing stock value. The primary culprit is lower fuel cost. Customers get to inhale during the Lower Fuel Price Period  (LFPP). This is how it works for those who have not considered Boeing's stock valuation effect. The LFPP represents about one third the cost of a ticket to anywhere. This is not a spot condition limited to a segment market. It is universal to all markets in the world. It is a holistic influence to an airline's operational cost efficiency. The ticket seat ticket price doesn't fall immediately. As in the price of gasoline pumped into a car, the per gallon price drop comes somewhat later and rises faster as it increases. This trade phenomena occurs in the airline industry. A lower fuel price causes a somewhat delayed lower ticket price for its customer. Expect a rapidly climbing ticket price when Jet A increases to its former place in the fuel market.

The question under review in the stock market is what happens to airline pricing above the Jetway transactions? How will they replace old equipment or expand fleets in a down fuel market? Wall Street expects a lower stock valuation from lower Boeing sales of its aircraft. The cause and effect of all this does lead to a sluggish purchasing plan by airlines from fundamental transitions from high fuel cost to low fuel cost. This transition however is only temporary until the effects of low fuel is normalized through competitive market forces catching-up.

Variables driving the travel market from low fuel prices brainstorming session:

• Low airline ticket price is the source of all changes in Balance sheet dynamics
• Low fuel price affects lower operational costs
• Lower fuel prices affects a positive profit margin initially
• Slowly adjusting lower ticket prices affects by shrinking the profit margin slowly.
• Increased  passenger numbers increase Revenue in total but not the revenue per passenger rate.
• Using old equipment strategy works until fuel prices bottom out and start rising again.
• Buying new equipment is deferred until competitive pricing bottoms and then starts rising.
• A formula from data can demonstrate cause and effect of these conditions.
• Buying new equipment began in 2006 when fuel was a much lower price indicating market balance.
• Market balance dictates purchasing new equipment that was delayed during fuel price dump. 

As one can see many factors will cause and effect an airline's purchasing regimen. I didn't even start with cash flows or leasing options, and I didn't consider many other operational and competitive route changes affected by low fuel prices. So the point I will make are those same ones made during the study of economics.

The Market will find its supply and demand equilibrium when a major component changes drastically such as fuel prices. Temporary anomalies will occur during a period such as the LFPP. One such anomaly is a temporary freeze on purchases. However, that builds up pressure for additional purchases outside usual stream of new equipment. If an airline doesn't order because they are playing the balance sheet opportunity from the LFPP, then it will have to make up ground later when the opportunity passes.

A second look, tells something on the Boeing backlog. It is rapidly shrinking and airlines can't use that for cover. The backlog was so far out, they were hesitant to get in line with an order. The backlog opportunity is opening up as it shrinks. Airlines need to get on the books even though it is in the LFPP. Market forces are squeezing down on delaying purchases, and using old equipment during this LFPP. In spite of the fuel price reduction, 2015 should be a good year for the Boeing order book in the second half of the year.

240 787 Delivered It's Reorder Time

Back in the day, about two years ago, "Winging It", predicted 2015 as a 787 reorder resurgence. One reason is for the extinction of glitches. A second reason is the reduction of the 787 order book. The 787-8 is 50% delivered in just three years. Another three years the 787-8 will be completely open for airline fleet expansions, within an airlines five year plan.. What Boeing has is production slots available for the 787-8 in reasonable fashion. One Airline who sits on its heals can option in rather quickly, when it identifies its fleet expansion opportunities. It sits just outside the China market. It is centered within the Asia region. The 787 design is a handmade design for the region. Who is it?

Better question:

Does Qantas have the nerve? If they do they need to convert its 787-8 options into a game changing order sooner rather than later, because Boeing has gone over the manufacturing hump. Boeing no longer has the supply chain uncertainty, nor does the errant battery problem come into any sales meeting conversations. Its main selling point is 20% better fuel, and it really works as advertised. You the buyer get to pick the colors. Qantas should not, or better stated, "will not" drop the ball unless they really want to remain an Icon of Australia's past, but it is not a standard in the world of travel. Unless Qantas has a big vision!

Qantas has:

Criky: 

Qantas versus Growth revives aviation-trade policy issues

"The key to that good news could be a decision to exercise some of the bargain priced options it has held since late 2005, when it first ordered or optioned up to 115 Boeing 787 Dreamliners."

"At the moment one of the key disadvantages for a “little” or “cautious” Qantas, no matter the quality of those arguments, is that Qantas is seen in trade and tourism quarters as attempting to stand in the way of this growth, saying “Not until I’m ready”."

The problem here is whether Qantas is a serious player in this moment of aviation history. Do they risk profits from lower fuel prices on a fleet full of the 787's? They obviously don't have those 115 on paper anymore, but do have a sizable chunk with Boeing's sales options. Just like a crime drama on TV its all about mode, means and opportunity before pulling the trigger on an order. Qantas has the means and the opportunity, but are they not motivated, or just scared to pick the phone up and ask for a meeting with Boeing sales department?

I "think" , they are ready during 2015 for making a move. The stars have aligned as risk on the 787 has abated. The performance numbers have been substantiated. Everybody says 20% less fuel needed for every NM flown. Qantas needs a mixed bag of tricks with the half and half order of 25 787-8s and 25 787-9 and maybe 10 more 787-10's. This will certainly make Qantas a force in the region. They can start receiving aircraft in five years. They actually need an order placement or they will slide further down the airline final approach slope in its history.

A change is in process for Qantas. Status quo doesn't work at this point. Even though they have the order placement reserved or "the means", and they have the opportunity of Boeing backlog shrinking. They just lack a motive or in this case the courage to join the Big Boys of the airline travel industry at a critical time. Waiting for any tailwind will have competitors landing in the region in numbers before Qantas can recover the market. If Qantas waits out on narrowing the risk and reward band they will become a Pan Am sentiment for National Geographic pictures. Qantas has the aircraft in view and it has the plan in hand, but it lacks the fortitude or a belief in its abilities and contains fears of failure. So will they cautiously consider more 787 without confidence in itself, as the world flies by and swoops in on another final approach, but with a different livery than Qantas?

Boeing Play Book, Turn The Page Please (Completed)

Back in the heady days of the 787 project I dreamed of an airplane built in just one week. That day was July 7, 2007. It was the 787-8 first roll out before adoring plant workers. It reminded me of the movie “Gung Ho”, with Michael Keaton. The last batch of cars were pushed out in order to meet the quota dictated by the Japanese owners, where they found a truly American manufacturing Culture.

Before the 787 on 7/7/07 came "Gung Ho":

Boeing has  turned the page and makes a great airplane: 

The onslaught is about to come not with the 787 but with the 747. It's a last ditch effort jump starting the 747 rebirth. Emirates is in the discussion, albeit by the third party channel, and through the head of the airplane state, and not Clark.  The Boeing bid, if they get one, will have a significant PIP installment. It's a not only engine improvement, but they must find a way towards 500 seats without sacrificing overall performance. The seats must fit the Emirates sensibility factors. If Boeing can improve the 747 by an additional 500 miles, and going up to 500 seat capacity it "may" trip Emirates sensibility of going long with the 747-8i "E" class. Of course "E" for Emirates becomes the prominent motif on the 747-8i tail insignia. Part of the "E" class designations comes the Boeing options with its 747-8i. It would be thrown in a special package with every 747-8i ordered by Emirates. A one for one order bonus. For every 747-8i ordered, Emirates receives a discounted price for one 787-9 or a 787-10 for up to a hundred, plus 100 more options on all three models at the same generous price discounts.

Airbus has dared Boeing to do it, Emirates is listening through the knot hole and scheming its pleasures out. The Airbus dare comes from not reacting to Tim Clark on a A380 NEO request. Tim, who is not for want of patience, exercises his patience, and turns over consultation on the matter with his bosses. Yes, Tim has a Boss. His Boss does not clasp the hand of Corporate America until money is exchanged and talks to its silent third party who can purvey the Boeing deed under certain conditions. Boeing wouldn't be trying unless they could sensibly meet Emirates benchmarks. Emirates would like nothing better than Airbus threatened or a desperate Boeing making a competitive package. Of course the third party is Michael Keaton in this movie "Gung Ho".

What will happened is an unfortunate undetermined condition. Therefore a blogger steps up and makes a ridiculous Walter Mitty presumption on the whole matter. This is for the readers of happy endings. Boeing will NEO ,its NEO 747-8i, on paper. Done! Emirates third party makes a paper "appeal" on a competitive cheaper and faster to fleet status that Airbus can possibly achieve within three model types. The proposal is handed down to Tim Clark with a make-it-so recommendation from his Boss, "but" the make-it-so caveat  has conditions to be met before any order is placed! Boeing must guarantee the following list of concerns... and so forth. Michael Keaton has his work cut out.