October Is More Than Average

The numbers are in for October for eleven 787 delivered as it marches towards the December count completion during 2014.

Goal +/-                          *08/2014    **09/2014         Projecting      October (actual) Delta 

Month Deliveries              13           **10             10            11                          +1

3 M-M-avg                      12.33          10.33        10             11.33                     +1.33

Production Goal               10               10             10             10                          0

Delivery Trend (+/- )       +2.33            +.33                   . 0            +1.33      /Target       >                

                                       *PM-Start      **M.A.P.                         PM-End

*Progression Months

**Moving Average Progression

Other Notes on the 787 Production analysis.

Total Year To Date 787:   90
2014 Goal                       110
Two Month Goal               20

Boeing met and achieved its 10 a month goal once again by delivering 11 787 during October. It has 10 more in production testing as a basis for November deliveries. Boeing has also achieved a fleet of 15 preflight preparation 787's. These 25 flightline participants  in total, are making the bedrock for November-December deliveries. Between the Change Incorporation and rework 787's there is a pool of 30  787 that conceivably could deliver by year's end.

Charleston Flight Line Candidates For Delivery

However, a straight from factory to flightline number will emerge during November that will also compete for delivery. Eleven new flightline aircraft will emerge in November making ready for end of year deliveries. December's aircraft emerging from the factory will deliver at the first of 2015.



What this all means is a possibility of 22 more 787's in the next 60 days, reaching a number for this year of 112, 787's delivered.  (Blogger prediction)

Boeing will certainly make its first of the year goal annoncement of 110 aircraft in the 787 category.

Wall Street Speculates On Boeing 737 Production Number, Reasonable?

The discussion has started from Wall Street, is Boeing's rate goal of 52 737's a month by 2018 too much too soon? A good piece was written concerning this question in the financial markets. Since blogging is a research based method of madness, I responded to the article in my typical fashion of examining the multiple layers found in decision making. The 52 a month production goal for the 737 has many layers to that decision. This opinion piece takes a broad stroke at Boeing's position from the financial position. Boeing looks at it from the marketing perspective, as it tries to superseed the Airbus production numbers and customer appeal synergy in play. First I will share my response on this well presented article.

Is Boeing’s 737 Production Hike Justified? Click Link

By Motley Fool,  November 01, 2014, 11:20:03 AM EDT

Response from this blogger:

I was convinced on 52 a month for Boeing's optimal benchmark for 737 production of aircraft. After reading your thoughts I can see your point of view. However, I will only offer this counter point, considering a full transition plan is installed by Boeing for making 52 737's, and achieving a benchmark of actually producing 47 a month during this current timeline in 2016. Boeing has announced for the 47 unit benchmark in the next couple of years. Boeing may allow some breathing room for its suppliers after the 47 units are reached during the MAX transitions period on the production floor. The important missing number is how many orders (737's) is Randy Tinseth harboring in his coat pocket? A large potential pocket number, in itself, would motivate a 52 production number, if they win some more sweeping orders away from Airbus.

That could happen in the China market quickly. Boeing then should transition to a 52 "production capability" without actually building 52 a month, until SIGNIFICANT orders are signed, making a certain backlog or build-up of 737's. The missing data for going 52 is in Boeing's suit pockets for potential, but realistic orders.

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After further review of this statement made in hast of posting a response. It still stands that Boeing will keep the flexibility of going for 52 as it has some unannounced order cards up its sleeve not yet ready for prime time announcing. 

LiftnDrag Scrapbook Feature

United Pilots: We Flew to Chengdu on a Boeing 787 and Loved It: "The Street Headline June 17, 2014"

What professionals say about the 787 from  almost six months ago?

CHENGDU, China ( TheStreet) -- "Dale Harlan, a United (UAL) pilot for 27 years, wanted so badly to fly the Boeing (BA) 787 Dreamliner that he gave up a dream job as a high-seniority 737 captain to fly as a first officer on the new airplane.

That sacrifice got him a spot on a historic flight on June 9, when United Flight 9 became the first non-stop commercial flight ever from North America into the interior of China, perhaps the clearest indication since the 787 began flying for ANA in 2011 that the aircraft's highest and best use is to open new frontiers in air travel.

For the moment, at 6,857 miles, San Francisco/Chengdu is the longest 787 flight to operate non-stop in both directions."

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 Its clear professionals will crawl on broken glass on the way to the job just to fly the 787. After 27 years a pilot would give up his capstone position just to fly the 787. That in itself, says something of the flying experience passengers pay for without much acknowledgement, as they board another 787 on a Business Trip. Dale Harlan, later, may have gone on to his career ladder position, but not without first checking out that could be found out with the 787-8. 

However, its still quite a statement to say I'll put promotion aside at this moment and fly the 787 6,857 miles on a super long range flight.

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"I wanted to fly this thing," said Harlan, who was a captain for 14 years, as he ticked off some of the airplane's advantages. Among them, lower cabin pressure, higher humidity and reduced noise make the 14-hour Chengdu trip far less grueling for passengers and crew, while technological improvements enable the airplane to fly higher, faster, and more efficiently than predecessor aircraft.

On the first Chengdu flight, "We got to 41,000 feet in 13 minutes," said Andy Raymer, the captain and a 31-year United pilot. "Everybody else is at 32,000, 34,000, 35,000. We're up here by ourselves for now."

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Remember this a pilot who does not work for Boeing, but United, its pure 787 exhilaration after flying prior generation aircraft. This enthusiasm extends back to passengers as they transfix on looking out the windows when it rises going above the clouds, as if they are doing a demo climb at Farnsburough during the 2014 Air Show .

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"Conceivably, the aircraft could make United a preferred carrier on long-haul flights.

I didn't perceive any advantage on my first 787 flight, United's Houston-Chicago service inaugural, but the benefits were striking when I flew the San Francisco/Chengdu inaugural.

The SFO-CTU flight path took the aircraft north to Alaska and over Russia before it entered Chinese airspace for several hours, an unusual experience for a U.S. crew.  Chinese airspace is almost entirely controlled by the military. Civilian ATC jurisdiction extends only about four miles on either side of the airways.

Weather deviations due to thunderstorms or turbulence are common and usually uncomplicated in the U.S, but a deviation in Chinese airspace requires coordination between civilian and military air traffic control agencies --- which provides one more thing for pilots to think about."

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A demonstration of the 787 technology is needed when a foreign carrier flies into China's airspace. China provides a narrow window in its flight path which is governed by the military as reported above. Precision flight paths, albeit storms and other weather when it occurs. The due diligence of the aircraft systems and its flying crew are required.

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"None of the Flight 9 pilots had ever flown into Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, not even on a simulator. However, they studied detailed regional and airport information and engaged in briefings prior to departure and again prior to the final approach. 

Raymer said specific simulator training was unnecessary because Chengdu is a typical modern airport with high quality navigational equipment and long runways. "From a pilot's perspective, it's no different than any other large, up-to-date international airport," he said.

As for the aircraft, Raymer and Harlan and the two other pilots on the first flight -- during the flight, two pilots flew while two others rested -- raved about its advantages."

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Now that the 787-9 has flown, most recently to Melbourne Australia by United. The 14:30 hours/min duration with a full load of 252 passengers, has been Boeing's longest route to date. The "for the moment" 787-8 distance was just eclipsed with another "for the moment" 787-9 record. I doubt the 2nd crew pilots were sleeping, they too, wanted to watch just like the passenger were watching. How else would you come down the jetway raving about the experience. 787-9 photo for Melbourne trip

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"The 787 is faster than predecessors. Its normal cruise speed is .85 Mach (or 85% of the speed of sound), which equates to 646 miles per hours, while the 777 cruises at .84 Mach. "What sets the B787 apart from the B777 is its ability to cruise as fast as .90 Mach," Harlan said. "On a 14-hour flight, that extra 46 mph will gain you 644 miles, or get you there almost exactly one hour earlier -- all while flying higher, above most bad weather, and using much less fuel than the 777."

Raymer said he is not worried about the 787's early problems with its lithium batteries. "The battery has proven to be extremely dependable since its upgraded design and manufacturing changes," he said. "The redesigned batteries have a stainless steel box around them; it is vented and can withstand high pressure in the very unlikely event of a battery issue."

The cockpit provides enhanced visual indicators, including a "heads up display" that enables pilots to view critical flight information such as altitude and air speed while looking straight ahead, rather than looking down at flight displays on the instrument panels. "I don't have to move my eyes back and forth while landing," Harlan said. Also, five large flat panel screens provide more display area than those in the Boeing 777-200."

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If it sounds like a Boeing Advertisement above, its not, its pride talking from a pilot as he recognizes the not subtle differences found on the 787. It makes a pilot better composed with enhanced information at his beck and call. The danger exists that a pilot will lose some of his flying skills when using all the 787 aids as a reliance, and then have a failure during a system problem. However, that can be addressed with a continuous flying/training program that has the pilot's flying skill at center court during annual training refreshers. 

The enhanced systems take the load off the pilot on more complex aircraft flying. The pilot needs  these multi tasking systems in order for safer flying above and over older previous models. 

The Lessons Learned from the A-380 engine explosion, when its first flew from Singapore, has provided an emergency pathway when calamity happens. As both all airline manufacturers and airlines have taken into account multi systems shut down or alarms is "pilot overload." 

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"Among the environmental advantages that benefit passengers as well as crew, the 787 is quieter than predecessors, so that "we can speak at a conversational level on the flight deck," Raymer said. The quieter cabin reflects the use of seamless composites in the plane's skin and seamless flight deck windows.

Also, cabin pressure is relatively high, reducing bodily stress; it is maintained at or below 6,000 feet altitude pressure, which is 1,000 to 2,000 feet lower than on comparable aircraft. Lower cabin altitude means higher cabin air pressure.

Additionally, 787 cabin air humidity is kept at 6% or 7% up from predecessors' 2%. Cabin air is supplied by four electric cabin air compressors, rather than by engine bleed air that has been heated to 800 degrees. After a 13-hour flight, "the fatigue is much less, and your ears don't ring," Raymer said."

Written by Ted Reed in Charlotte, N.C. 

Virgin Atlantic Reinvents Customer Experience

At the arrival of Virgins Atlantic new 787-9 in Atlanta's airport. Richard Branson had plenty to  quip upon. He realizes airlines must stay relevant without spending the "farm' for relevancy and make customers happy in droves. The two for one ploy is customer efficiency, since its all about the customer which drives ticket sales. It all stems from the customer experience. Today's Richard Branson quote: 

"Our goal was to find ways to become a more efficient company without taking things away from the customer,” he said. “Our next phase, having stabilized the company financially, is to invest in the customer.”

Branson must put Virgin Atlantic into a position where it maximizes the customer experience while making their experience more efficient and having a direct impact on making Virgin Atlantic (VA) more efficient. VA is on to something with this passenger model. It is installing new efficient equipment on its most important routes. The 787-9 is the most efficient aircraft flying, giving the customer the highest travel experience in its ride and space considerations. As stated incessantly before, all the customer creature comforts are in place with larger windows, better air and entertainment systems for the price of one ticket. The customer has a subliminally better travel experience with the 787-9. It goes on with its mood lighting and other amenities as it pulls up to the gate. Branson is halfway there when he purchased the 787. 

VA must now take the passenger further in this dual conquest of airline efficiency and the passenger travel efficiency. He must look to his over-all ground operations. How can VA make it happen while cutting ground cost for the passenger. Many a time I have gone through the trauma of crowds where everyone wants on board, on time! TSA screening is on the passengers watch. Past that point VA owns it. Get its passengers secured and to the gate once past the TSA  gateway. 

  My own "Travel Efficiency Experience Fantasy"

The Branson way would have a centrally located "restaurant" for its passengers in each airport terminal guaranteeing its customers timely boarding. The restaurant has a flight desk concierge that will provide a valet service to the boarding gate when the boarding starts. The valet will lead the VA flight party to the gate at the right time. Since spending time and money at restaurant its a win for the passenger as well as for VA. The passengers don't have to spend endless time in the hard and rowed boarding chairs with its endless CNN on caption. It can spend time drinking, eating and enjoying each others company until the valet summons everyone for its flight without impatience and worry.   

Just like restaurants with a waiting list they give you a card that blinks and vibrates, signaling your flight is ready card, just like a table is ready when it blinks. Once you check into the VA restaurant with your flight ticket in hand you are in VA's care. You card light go off and vibrates, you report to the valet station where you will be lead to your gate just a short distance away for boarding. Of course if you like to sit in those hard gate chairs. You can order the the food carry-on in a on Box with a carry handle for your flight included in the price of your ticket, tips not included. A VA "way station" is just one of many concepts that would add value and efficiency to the customer experience, and make added values dollars for the Branson operation. Customers could choose VA over other airlines in order to guarantee its own customer experience.

Vietnam, Boeing's Stone To Turn Over

Airbus has had a clean run though in Vietnam. It has sold about 90% of Vietnam's new aircraft now in service. Quoting Vietnam Net, Boeing exec spills the beans on the stone that needs turning.

"Vice President of Boeing International, Ralph L. "Skip" Boyce, admitted during his working visit to Vietnam last week that Boeing had found it difficult to expand its market share in Vietnam.

The US aircraft manufacturer estimates that Boeing aircraft now account for seven percent of the commercial fleets in Vietnam.

The figure may rise slightly to 10 percent the next year when the national flag air carrier Vietnam Airlines receives more Boeing aircraft."

With 15 787's on the delivery docket and probably 3-4 787-9 delivered in 2015 Boeing is reintroducing itself to Vietnam as a aircraft player. Not only is Vietnam taking new aircraft next year from Boeing, it is manufacturing parts for Boeing.

"MHI Aerospace Vietnam Co., Ltd. (MHIVA), a group company of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, today opened its new manufacturing factory in Hanoi to supply passenger doors for the Boeing 777.

The firm also marked the shipment of its 1,000th inboard flap for the Boeing 737 at the opening ceremony of the new factory."

Vietnam Net  

Vietnam can be the "Front Door" to the Orient, as it is well positioned geographically for North American flights and all of South East Asia. Its a way in, within the region going from China through Thailand enjoying its tourism and business. Vietnam has finally reemerged as a world resource for trade commerce. Boeing must consider partnering with Vietnam through its product line, so Vietnam fully transitions as a competitor, as both its commerce and trade grows. The tourism will piggy-back on the ground swell of an expanding economy. The Dynamic is set for both Vietnam and Boeing.

Number 200 in Waiting For 787 Delivery (Updated)

Notice to all pocket protectors, I-Pads and Bean counters. 787 Number 200 is about to be delivered as 5 are in waiting. Who will claim the honor of 787 # 200 delivered? Here are the candidates. An update will follow when the deed is accomplished. Please weigh in-on who will claim delivery number 200nd.

Ready and waiting for delivery: Hint my money is on QATAR

10/27/2014 its Qatar Airlines  with the 200th 787 delivered.

Line Number	Variable Number	Serial Number	Registration/Airline	787 Model
LN207	ZA475	38334	A7-BCP  /  Qatar	787-8
LN215	ZA476	38335	A7-BCQ  /  Qatar	787-8
LN223	ZB168	36402	N19951  /  United	787-9
LN226	ZA590	36110	HS-TQC /  Thai	787-8
LN230	ZA614	35261	C-GHPX /  Air Canada	787-8

Ethiopian Airlines Leverages Its 787 on European/Americas Routes

Ethiopian has its ten 787 reducing its 787 backlog to zero. Now they are  sliding routes into the fold having all its 787 with the last one just delivered. Dublin Ireland and Los Angeles, California is the target. Just look at those windows would you. Its better than the observation deck on the Empire State Building. Ethiopian has 70 years of experience beckoning it with wise decisions.

Ethiopian Airlines to launch direct flights to Los Angeles

Research Article link from New Vision Uganda and other Liftndrag/Winging It archives



Not only does it take a gamble with the all new 787 technology, it has started re-consigning routes with both its 777-200 and 787-8. It is a dynamic African Airline that is getting it done without the hoopla of an Air India hyperbole problem. In a recent news article, from Hindustan Times, it was found the A-320 had more operating problems by number in its first year operating in India than the 787 had , which is a far more technological aircraft than the A-320 Indian operated Aircraft. The Indian DGCA Inspector says it is "teething woes", and nothing else that you would expect from a newly introduced aircraft. Boeing is addressing every woe that occurs with a permanent correction, and solving any unforeseen problems it encounters during service and in testing. Its part of the aircraft maturation process.

Dreamliner woes just teething troubles, says regulator

Credit Link above:  HindustanTimes

"The Boeing 787 Dreamliner may have caused a huge headache for Air India (AI) for the constant glitches that have hampered its performance, but it’s still faring better than other jets, according to the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA).

“Much serious problems were experienced at the time of induction of the Airbus A320 aircraft, which was a novel design feature of late 1980s,” said a presentation made by DGCA officials to the Civil Aviation Safety Advisory Council — a commregulatorittee appointed by the aviation ministry to advise on safety issues.

“As and when innovative design or technology is introduced/upgraded, it needs time to stabilise to address teething problems. B787 engineering issues are expected to stabilise by end-2014 or mid-2015,” according to the DGCA presentation, accessed by HT."

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Relative Score Card, LnD report:

A-320 53 glitches in 7 months. 1989-90            787 Dreamliner 58 Glitches in 18 months 2012-2013

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"On September 20, 2014, Ethiopian Airlines was revealed as the customer for a firm order for 20 Boeing 737 MAX 8s, the carrier also securing options and purchase rights for a further 15 737 MAX 8s. The order represents the largest single Boeing order from an African carrier in terms of the number of aircraft involved. This computer graphic image shows a Boeing 737 MAX 8 in Ethiopian Airlines’ livery"  (New Vision Uganda Quote October 26, 2014)

Each Boeing purchased has been a careful airline consideration, born not out of whimsy or extra cash on hand, but out of identifying how they will succeed in its vision.

Vision Statement:

"To become the most competitive and leading aviation group in Africa by providing safe, market driven and customer focused passenger and cargo transport, aviation training, flight catering, MRO and ground services by 2025." 

Mission Statement: (The how we do it by...)

• To become the leading Aviation group in Africa by providing safe and reliable passenger and cargo air transport, Aviation Training, Flight Catering, MRO and Ground Services whose quality and price “value proposition” is always better than its competitors,
   
• To ensure being an airline of choice to its customers, employer of choice to its employees and an investment of choice to its Owner,
   
• To contribute positively to socio economic development of Ethiopia in particular and the countries to which it operates in general by undertaking its corporate social responsibilities and providing vital global air connectivity,

• As an airline, safety is our first priority,
   
• Ethiopian is a high performance and learning organization with continuous improvements, innovation and knowledge-sharing. We accept change for the growth opportunity it brings and always seek for and apply the best ideas regardless of their source,
   
• We recognize and reward employees for their performance and demonstrate integrity, respect to others, candor and team work,
   
• Act in an open fashion and be result-oriented, creative and innovative,
   
• Adopt Zero tolerance to indifference, inefficiency and bureaucracy,
   
• Encourage 360° free flow and sharing of information,
   
• Treat our customers the same way we would like to be treated and always look for ways to make it easier for customers to do business with us,
   
• We are an equal opportunity employer,

Every potential passenger should read a company's goals and objectives through its Vision/Mission/Values statements. Buy the ticket if you agree with the statements, and measure its worth when sitting in a terminal, boarding and flying with that Airline. Then when arriving, test the Airline, on its Mission and Value statement by asking yourself did they, Ethiopian, achieve those goals and objectives? If they did, it should flow into its vision statement. Every employee should know these statements by heart, and affect their workmanship and service to the customer.

The final test is found on the bottom line of profits. Ethiopian has had a remarkable run on profitability since flying or inducting the 787. Its going long by adding Los Angeles to its routing. It will fill out the African Dream with its new 737 Max coming in a few years. Ethiopian Airlines is a surprise airline for the traveler, as it strives for safety, comfort and service.

In closing, Ethiopian had a severe fire on its 787 at London-Heathrow Airport. A piece of locator equipment caught fire in the rear crown of the aircraft section near the tail. A catastrophic incident on the 787 carbon fiber structure ensued. Boeing and Ethiopian kept its eye on the vision, and employed never before performed repairs on this type of aircraft. It proved two points for both manufacturer and Operator. 

• First, it demonstrated a process to repair a huge carbon structure from the manufacturer. 

• Second, it demonstrated Ethiopians Vision statement was in fact, a true purpose for the airline when it stood by its pledge of flying safely. 

Today the same scorched 787 is performing without any follow-on mishaps as all systems and structures perform according to new airplane 787's. It's quite an example of an airline understanding, and dealing with a crises in an carbon fiber technology. It proved the barrel assembly is reparable in a newly tested exigency situation. 

Vision is achieved with the  completed repair. Its flying safely once again as promised by Ethiopian.

Bears Overview Boeing With Reoccurring 787 Issues

The list on Boeing's reoccurring 787 issues plague the bottom line towards profitability. The 787 program has amassed over 25 billion in charges beyond its original break-even point from program glitches starting with the battery on. You name it Boeing's got it on the 787. Cracked windshields, failing systems, and parts or misapplied fabrications from contributing suppliers in the larger body works; just to name a few. The Boeing 911 crew spares no expense in chasing down those pesky glitches with its oft referred new 787 aircraft.

The cost of "chase down those problems" accumulates to the 25 billion in the hole level as earlier reported on this blog. Boeing strategy is to mitigate everything until perfected. So far they have spent the bank in doing so. The financial set recognizes that Boeing can't just keep delivering 777's and 737's to keep cash pace as it will soon run lean or  exhaust those resources, as it transitions to the MAX and the 777X. Both those new projects will need an infusion of cash in two years, while the 787 sucks the production cash buffers up before those project get rolling. The sketch artist can draw a bleak picture of lost stock value with Boeing's under performing cash flows, as more super glue and technology band-aids are applied to the 787 Hull.

The 787 must fly free of encumbered problems by next spring. The battery should be a hindsight proposition. The "in-service" glitching on the many issues list are starting to slow down as resolutions are installed, but not as part replacement in a re installed part. A better widget is Boeing's salvation faulting parts, not being just another replacement part. The Billions spent in an over-the-top 787 effort is the "all new technology" penalty. Boeing thought it could slough through without any mishap. It didn't, and its paying for it now on the back end and the market Bears have taken notice rolling out its new observations on  Boeing prospects of not halting the 787 financial erosion.

The Bears will soon have its rule over with, concerning the 787. The Bull will play in greener pasture by 2015 and start eroding the 25 Billion cash back log found on Boeing's book, when money making orders are gained.

United Adjust Order Book For More 787-10's

It was just announced that United/Continental is changing its 787 order book by moving some 787-8's to the 787-10 category. Below are some numbers  from All Things 787 Blog Statistics, which are very reliable, show only one more 787-8 available for delivery. The statement that they will move 787-8's to an order of 787-10s is confusing. As reported below from Reuters link;

"During a conference call with analysts and journalists, the Chicago-based carrier also said it had converted orders for Boeing 787-8 Dreamliners to 787-10 models, a move that defers the delivery date to 2022 and beyond from 2017 to 2018 currently."

United Airlines capacity to rise next year; converts 787 order

"United Airlines said it is looking for used aircraft to adjust capacity and lower its capital expense, and noted it had recently purchased two used 737-700s from a leasing company that it declined to name. (Reporting by Alwyn Scott, Editing by Franklin Paul)"

From the chart below there are no backlog for 787-8's so this mean there are some option aircraft moving to a firmed order number for 787-10's from optioned 787-8's classification or they are taking from outstanding 787-9's not yet delivered which they have in abundance at this time , counting that still has 25 787-9's net yet delivered. Reuters likes to confuse sometimes when not fact checking.

Customer Name	Customer Code	Model	Ordered	Delivered	Undelivered		2012 787-Deliveries	2013 787-8 Deliveries	2014 787-8 Deliveries	2014 787-9 Deliveries
United Air Lines	UAL/CAL	787-8	12	11	1		6	2	3
United Air Lines	UAL/CAL	787-9	26	1	25					1
United Air Lines	UAL/CAL	787-10	27	0	27