Boeing can no longer dilly dally on the Lithium Ion Battery (LIB) in the 787. As much promise as the LIB gave the 787 over older battery design its impairment of melt down is bringing the whole 787 down on the ground. The advantage and more robust and lighter weight battery is out weight by the protective implementation of the safety measures Boeing has taken in making it safe but has not stopped the failure.
That failure alone is killing the dream and Boeing will have to swallow its pride and go to a heavier option that is available. The whole model is at risk from a temperamental problems that Boeing cannot not resolve even though precautions taken keep it safe in its containment box. A heavier battery system that will not behave like the LIB is needed . I believe Boeing is quickly reaching a transfer to that system and is writing a plan to retro fit its customers aircraft after testing of the new non LIB system. A defeat for Boeing but not loosing the airplane war is more important, Until Boeing or its battery subcontractor can isolate the LIB flaw they should not propagate the installation until a solution is found. It is not know what causes the problem which is more important to Boeing to know while selling more 787. The risk is not retired. Until Boeing retires the the causal risk then it go to plan B.
A weight gain by a plan B battery system can be made up in added empty weight by that heavier system, by trimming more unnecessary weight out of the aircraft as it can.
Boeing has been working the plan B for some time and has nursed the LIB problem along for over a year. It would interesting to note if plan B has already tested on LN005 or 006 by now. That would be a major clue if those aircraft have flown with another type of battery pack.
If Boeing takes on new weight for a new solution, some of that weight could be countered by canceled, by eliminating the containment case no longer needed on an alternative battery. As far as the robust energy provided by the LIB, a plan B battery will need innovative power management for its replacement in order to keep up with the LIB promised performance. A set back, yes but not a game changer. Boeing really needs to address unfinished business by determining what causes the failure of the LIB battery under operation. They should also make sure they could change out the Battery Kit in a 787 with some straight forward inter changeability for the LIB and the plan B Battery both back and forth as a solution could be found within the LIB and airlines could go back to the LIB once root cause is found. A big task, yes. But no more so than hundreds of other new technologies innovated on the Dream liner. A change out is needed for coming forward and backward as the 787 switches to various base systems from the batteries.
I am sure Boeing has reviewed every regretable plan to deal with this irepressable LIB and now needs to put that problem to bed until it is resolved. Boeing can no longer suffer further hang-ups with this feature. I don't know how a plan B battery would affect the all electric 787 systems.
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Monday, January 13, 2014
The Commonality Is Called Kiwi Quality from Air new Zealand
Three Boeing Aircraft Classes, and One Airline Customer Goal. Its the Air New Zealand remodeling campaign. Customers, no matter how they book long legged runs will think they are always on optimum aircraft all looking and feeling the same. The 777-200 are going under refurbishment soon, where each -200 will receive the royal glove treatment. From nose to tail they will take out the old, 2005 and newer 777-200 interiors, and completely upscale that interior that will match, equal or exceed in some interior areas of its stable mates.. The mates include the yet to arrive until later in 2014, 787-9 and 777-300ER. The seats on all aircraft and the room in each passenger space will have an Air New Zealand trademark seating environment with all the amenities of the newest fleet member benchmark interior found on the 787--9. By next year if you get on a 777-200 then you will pleased to know you are experiencing a quality standard set by the latest seating innovation throughout the airline.
Australian Business Traveller
No matter what, you could have one of these for the family:
Australian Business Traveller
Or one these economy seats for yourself:
But this will be the 777-200 new seating compliment that matches its stablemates;
You know, the 787-9 and 777-300 ER. Now you know how crazy the Kiwis are getting in a good kindof way, then you have a seamless experience flying down under into the Orient.
The only distinction that will be made is the sound of the engines or lack thereof the sound of engines. If the passenger takes off without knowing what aircraft type they are on, then Air New Zealand will have succeeded in lulling the passenger into complacency of quality no matter the model.
Sunday, January 12, 2014
Airbus Ponders Counter Punch With A330
Once again this is about Boeing with an Airbus angle on the line. Airbus has been placed on notice as the 787 matriculates out of Glitch University. The A330 was a bull- pen choice as Boeing fiddled away the years while dialing-in the new technology. The A330 filled that Boeing time gap supplying impatient customers who needed a mid sized two engine wide body with performance. The 787 has moved to the head of the class with Airline afficionados, as the A330 returns back to the bull-pen waiting a second call to pitch in relief in the big leagues. The 787 hopes to retire the A330.
Airbus is now looking at doing a A330 make-over with new engines and performance packages that would get the A330 competitive. They would not be able to announce a commitment for that consideration for another year. By then the 787 will have 200+ flying 787's and maybe another hundred booked in sales. If a New A330 can approach the 787 envelop of operation, it may work for second level customers in a strategy for a cheaper knockoffs of the 787. However, the longevity of a remake option may have a short shelf life, and not giving a return on the investment idea through upgrading the A330 engine options. That concept would cost billions of Euros. This is another Airbus decision that could be construed as a another "Boeing made you blink" (A350 project). I would not advise Airbus or its partners, but it would be interesting if they brought forward a new and different set of wings with that decision, then they would get some serious interest from its customers. The Boeing 777X wings, 787 and 747 wings are exemplary of world class wings. Airbus does not carry that wing swagger at this time.
Airbus should also bring forward some Euro innovation that can be installed while making the A330 a truely different airplane. They would want to incorporate a new technology suite that makes the old A330 obsolete in its operational arena. Airlines now have a benchmark with the 787. All airlines that operate the 787 and its competitors who do not operate the 787 view that aircraft for what it can do, and new 787 orders will spawn from that reality. A new A330 has to be more than a customer loyalty purchase, just because an airline has other Airbus equipment in its fleet. A year of quiet operation for the 787 is going to be a very quiet sales year for the A330.
So what is Airbus up to as it plays its scattered model battle plan with Boeing, clear from its top end two engine wide body to the bottom end, the A330. The only two announcements available for Airbus is an extra extra wide body with more upolstry A350-1100 (EEWB) and a New Operational Passenger Experience called NOPE A330
Airbus is now looking at doing a A330 make-over with new engines and performance packages that would get the A330 competitive. They would not be able to announce a commitment for that consideration for another year. By then the 787 will have 200+ flying 787's and maybe another hundred booked in sales. If a New A330 can approach the 787 envelop of operation, it may work for second level customers in a strategy for a cheaper knockoffs of the 787. However, the longevity of a remake option may have a short shelf life, and not giving a return on the investment idea through upgrading the A330 engine options. That concept would cost billions of Euros. This is another Airbus decision that could be construed as a another "Boeing made you blink" (A350 project). I would not advise Airbus or its partners, but it would be interesting if they brought forward a new and different set of wings with that decision, then they would get some serious interest from its customers. The Boeing 777X wings, 787 and 747 wings are exemplary of world class wings. Airbus does not carry that wing swagger at this time.
Airbus should also bring forward some Euro innovation that can be installed while making the A330 a truely different airplane. They would want to incorporate a new technology suite that makes the old A330 obsolete in its operational arena. Airlines now have a benchmark with the 787. All airlines that operate the 787 and its competitors who do not operate the 787 view that aircraft for what it can do, and new 787 orders will spawn from that reality. A new A330 has to be more than a customer loyalty purchase, just because an airline has other Airbus equipment in its fleet. A year of quiet operation for the 787 is going to be a very quiet sales year for the A330.
So what is Airbus up to as it plays its scattered model battle plan with Boeing, clear from its top end two engine wide body to the bottom end, the A330. The only two announcements available for Airbus is an extra extra wide body with more upolstry A350-1100 (EEWB) and a New Operational Passenger Experience called NOPE A330
Friday, January 10, 2014
Its All About The 787 Boeing Customers From This Point Forward
The center of attention for the last five years has been the 787-8 and now the -9. Boeing has suffered sales draughts at times, and then fire. The On-The-Fly development regimen is rapidly coming to close. Even though there will always be some continuous development needs as its customers robustly attack the passenger market place. Those numerous infractions on the aircraft will wash out in 2014. Reliability will once more become a term used for the 787. Part of Boeing's thinking was a quantum leap over its competitor, Airbus. They knew the various risks in 2005, but couldn't quantify those risks until it entered customer service. After two years of shaking out those glitches, here is what customers now count on when buying a 787.
These are just a few talking point for consideration. Number one point is Boeing's bent on making sure customers have no adverse opinion for buying a 787. They will have the 787's back with an advanced team of engineers and mechanics that can solve any problem encountered. The 787, by end of 2014, will make reporting about Boeing problems a pinch tougher as those problems are quietly buried. If the publishers want to publish a book about the 787 glitches then they should because the writing material on that subject will dry up by 2015. Boeing has the 787's back and it is not going away. When both the aviation giants tale of the tape is read in 2016, the 787 remains the heavy hitter in the market place. Airbus will have to go back to the innovation board to beat the 787.
The profit addiction is effecting aviation board rooms. It just not the fuel savings that a 787 brings to a bottom line, its also the passenger customer appeal, the ability to extend routes, and the cheaper air fares. "Unfair", proclaims Airbus! Oh well, the 787 is here to stay, deal with it. Just look at Ethiopian Airlines bottom line since adding the 787. Look at Air India dismal financial position from 2009 until now. Air India is now playing the 787 chips its has on the table, when they didn't have any of those chips to play with earlier. Air India flew to Frankfurt in 2010 and lost money every time they loaded its fares on to Germany. Now they need those 787's all the time. In fact, Air India sold its 787s, just to take with same 787s back the next day as leased aircraft. That is the chip they couldn't play during 2010 when they were financially broke. They will play these same 787 chips several more times to reach eventual profitably.
Foot print, as in Sasquatch. Air Canada can't wait. They will be receiving its first 787 by mid 2014. They will undercut foreign intruders from far and aboard, when attempts from foriegn airlines are made for coming efficiently or leaving effectively from Toronto. However, the 787 foot print will stomp the Canadian competition, safely leaving Canada and its World air space for; "Oh those Canadians" and other Canadian friends. This should be a model for other national carriers. They should follow on in like manner in order to salvage any national carrier's from alien predators. Norwegian Air, even though with its glitchy start is realizing 787 potential in spurts. Once all those pesky problems are treated, where Boeing has the 787's back, the glitches will terminate. Then Norwegian moves to the head of the class with its 787s. What the other customers aren't spouting off about, shows they like less attention towards its own strategy with the 787, and more attention about its own performance as an airline. Only when they buy another pot load of 787s will they speak up and make an obligatory statement; "Even though the 787 was grounded or having teething woes, this airplane has proven critical to our over -all success, therefore with great pleasure we will announce follow-on purchases of the 787 family line of aircraft." That sentiment has already been stated as new 787-10s were ordered by various airlines
The end of 2014 will have satisfied those sitting on the sidelines, that the 787 is done with all its significant trials and will venture out and order a plethora of 787s. I would expect the new 787 customer category to grow as airlines order in band wagon like precision towards the end of the year. Boeing will grow its order book once again greater than its 787 production number of 100 units in 2014. Boeing needs to keep ratio sales to builds of over 1+. I would use a five year moving average ratio/ (calculation) over its second phase life of the program.
Boeing tells its sales team to keep the sales to delivery ratio above one.
Boeing 787 Five Year Moving Average Sales To Production Ratio
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sales -59 - 4 13 -12 182
Delivery 3 50 65
Ratio calculation:
5 yr sales. 120
5 yr Delivery 118
Five Year Ratio 1.017
(anything above 1+ maintains a inventory buffer. The un-built inventory is virtually the same as it was in 2009 after it has 118 delivered units.)
This moving average summary for 2014 should stay at par with little change to the ratio. A good time for its continuous improvement scheme.
- Boeing will have the 787's back
- Customers can count on the 787 to make greater profits and pull airlines out of financial Kaos.
- It will have 200 787's flying to expectations
- The Airbus offering is a half measure of the 787
These are just a few talking point for consideration. Number one point is Boeing's bent on making sure customers have no adverse opinion for buying a 787. They will have the 787's back with an advanced team of engineers and mechanics that can solve any problem encountered. The 787, by end of 2014, will make reporting about Boeing problems a pinch tougher as those problems are quietly buried. If the publishers want to publish a book about the 787 glitches then they should because the writing material on that subject will dry up by 2015. Boeing has the 787's back and it is not going away. When both the aviation giants tale of the tape is read in 2016, the 787 remains the heavy hitter in the market place. Airbus will have to go back to the innovation board to beat the 787.
The profit addiction is effecting aviation board rooms. It just not the fuel savings that a 787 brings to a bottom line, its also the passenger customer appeal, the ability to extend routes, and the cheaper air fares. "Unfair", proclaims Airbus! Oh well, the 787 is here to stay, deal with it. Just look at Ethiopian Airlines bottom line since adding the 787. Look at Air India dismal financial position from 2009 until now. Air India is now playing the 787 chips its has on the table, when they didn't have any of those chips to play with earlier. Air India flew to Frankfurt in 2010 and lost money every time they loaded its fares on to Germany. Now they need those 787's all the time. In fact, Air India sold its 787s, just to take with same 787s back the next day as leased aircraft. That is the chip they couldn't play during 2010 when they were financially broke. They will play these same 787 chips several more times to reach eventual profitably.
Foot print, as in Sasquatch. Air Canada can't wait. They will be receiving its first 787 by mid 2014. They will undercut foreign intruders from far and aboard, when attempts from foriegn airlines are made for coming efficiently or leaving effectively from Toronto. However, the 787 foot print will stomp the Canadian competition, safely leaving Canada and its World air space for; "Oh those Canadians" and other Canadian friends. This should be a model for other national carriers. They should follow on in like manner in order to salvage any national carrier's from alien predators. Norwegian Air, even though with its glitchy start is realizing 787 potential in spurts. Once all those pesky problems are treated, where Boeing has the 787's back, the glitches will terminate. Then Norwegian moves to the head of the class with its 787s. What the other customers aren't spouting off about, shows they like less attention towards its own strategy with the 787, and more attention about its own performance as an airline. Only when they buy another pot load of 787s will they speak up and make an obligatory statement; "Even though the 787 was grounded or having teething woes, this airplane has proven critical to our over -all success, therefore with great pleasure we will announce follow-on purchases of the 787 family line of aircraft." That sentiment has already been stated as new 787-10s were ordered by various airlines
The end of 2014 will have satisfied those sitting on the sidelines, that the 787 is done with all its significant trials and will venture out and order a plethora of 787s. I would expect the new 787 customer category to grow as airlines order in band wagon like precision towards the end of the year. Boeing will grow its order book once again greater than its 787 production number of 100 units in 2014. Boeing needs to keep ratio sales to builds of over 1+. I would use a five year moving average ratio/ (calculation) over its second phase life of the program.
Boeing tells its sales team to keep the sales to delivery ratio above one.
Boeing 787 Five Year Moving Average Sales To Production Ratio
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sales -59 - 4 13 -12 182
Delivery 3 50 65
Ratio calculation:
5 yr sales. 120
5 yr Delivery 118
Five Year Ratio 1.017
(anything above 1+ maintains a inventory buffer. The un-built inventory is virtually the same as it was in 2009 after it has 118 delivered units.)
This moving average summary for 2014 should stay at par with little change to the ratio. A good time for its continuous improvement scheme.
- Phase I was start-up period 1, since late 2011-2013, The Glitch AGE
- Phase II is maturation with its customers 2014-2017, The Customer Age
- Phase III, 2017... the Game Changer Age, claims a turn to reality through its customer's bragging points.
2014 will be written up as Boeing finally delivers its Dream.
That's how important 2014 will be for Boeing to have this bird meet customers expectation when signing an MOU for 787s. It is important for both Boeing and customer to share the customer's own dream of changing bottom lines for failing airlines, increasing the strategic foot print of an airline who strives, for world relevance and defends its home turf. Finally, shore up mega airlines fight at the top with a multiple offerings from the duopoly of the giant framers that mega airlines seek.
As stated at the beginning of my writing participation back in 2012, I am taking on writing about just Boeing mostly, and other interesting aviation items. This exercise has been helpful for my critical thinking acumen and my enthusiasm for aviation. I chose the Boeing side of things and reserve the right to offer criticism towards Boeing as therapeutic treatment for my Boeing frustration. Airbus was never a favorite of mine, just because we live in a free country and I can write about my opinion on wings and things, hence the title, "Winging It", this has become an open digression on the Boeing company. I thank all who have ventured with me to read my inputs and I hopefully can slender down my own glitches in writing. Only if you ever knew how far I've come to this point you would understand the effort in sharing these out takes from aviation's Renaissance. I hope that 2014 will find you smiling at my attempts to shine light on those things that also make me smile, think and write. After all it isn't about the money for me since its all deviously free. It all about those who share an interest in aviation and can't or won't chose sides. I've chosen mine and I'll probably go down with the ship when the order goes out from Boeing, to man the life boats.
Thursday, January 9, 2014
The 787 Is Baking In Alice Springs, Australia
The 787-9 is in over exposed mode during its stay at Alice Springs, Australia. Not only is the local airport important for ground heat testing. The frame needs to bake out above 38 degrees Celsius (100 F for Americans) just sitting there doing what the engineers want to see in its environmental systems. This weekend on Saturday afternoon, Australian time and Friday late US west coast, Alice Springs will reach 40 celsious and make a complete outback test and fly an operational junket throughout the Australian outback where temperatures could reach 43 c or more degrees. In some areas of the outback that would about 110 to 115. A complete hot resting bake off, then start up systems in heat, and normalize the airplane environment which that test could be acheived on within the day. Plus a spin around the country side flying in heat to see what happens.
If you want to have an entertaining photo shoot of the Alice Springs 787-9 testing, then go to:
The Australian Business Traveller
The 787-9 is provisioned with testing equipment and 90 seats for all testing personnel. As an example Rolls Royce engineers flew on board with engine performance equipment on the long flight from Seattle to Auckland. They went to Alice Springs this week to witness and document all climatic impacts on the RR engines.
It was noted in this article, that Boeing has relayed to its Business Journal that this was the final big series of test for the 787-9 when conducting these heat test in Australia. All testing for the 787-9 should be closed in on by April of 2014. When this 787-9 flies back to Everett Washington, it will conduct small issue testing with the other two 787-9 aircraft until it prepares delivery aircraft for Air New Zealand units through the US summer for fall delivery. In a short 10 months the Kiwi will have its first delivered aircraft flying customers. Exact customer delivery date has not been set until all testing is complete.
On board a right turn takes you to the racks of equipment
On board a left turn takes you to tight standard economy seats. Engineers don't have seat benefits on long haul work assignments.
Photos supplied by Australian Business Traveller.
If you want to have an entertaining photo shoot of the Alice Springs 787-9 testing, then go to:
The Australian Business Traveller
The 787-9 is provisioned with testing equipment and 90 seats for all testing personnel. As an example Rolls Royce engineers flew on board with engine performance equipment on the long flight from Seattle to Auckland. They went to Alice Springs this week to witness and document all climatic impacts on the RR engines.
It was noted in this article, that Boeing has relayed to its Business Journal that this was the final big series of test for the 787-9 when conducting these heat test in Australia. All testing for the 787-9 should be closed in on by April of 2014. When this 787-9 flies back to Everett Washington, it will conduct small issue testing with the other two 787-9 aircraft until it prepares delivery aircraft for Air New Zealand units through the US summer for fall delivery. In a short 10 months the Kiwi will have its first delivered aircraft flying customers. Exact customer delivery date has not been set until all testing is complete.
On board a right turn takes you to the racks of equipment
On board a left turn takes you to tight standard economy seats. Engineers don't have seat benefits on long haul work assignments.
Now back to those Rolls Royce Engineers. Here is their lair.
Photos supplied by Australian Business Traveller.
Sunday, January 5, 2014
Boeing's 2014 Strategic Must Haves and Should Be
The Strategic Audit is complete and 2014 will be a year of findings and recommendations for Boeing Airplane effort. This is a performance audit so don't expect financial errors or brilliant manipulations in the financial market reported on from 2013. It is an audit of strategic milestones and new bench marks predicting a 2014 out come and its relative position to its competitor, Airbus. So reading this report will enable a point of view on Boeing's 2014 potential achievements in order the it continues its repositioning in the market place by the end of 2014.
First is a quick review of 2013 findings:
It was found that Boeing has a star player, The 787:
The second star player is the 737 MAX and it was found:
The Final Stars are the 777-8 and 777-9
2014 Recommendation:
Boeing must keep its head and not do "Crazy Ivans" in the boardroom. They have a well thought out strategy, "don't fix it if ain't broke" is your 2014 mission statement.
...................................................................................................
Now for the 2014 peanut gallery, "2014 strategic out look".
The 787 program will see a diminishing glitch factor in the program by June 2014 it will have to implement its marketing swagger, once again, by announcing the 787 is the "New Black" for airlines seeing red during 2013 when it grounded the 787. The 787 will have nearly 200 787 in the air by end of 2014, before the A350 is delivered. The question is, will Airbus carry the fear that the A350 can't match the 787 on any level? The reliability question will be retired and the 787 will reach its true fulfillment of the most advanced and reliable aircraft ever built. The 787 is the new standard for passengers and that they will measure everything against the 787. By year's end, more aircraft from Boeing take-off with more people flying on them, also by the end of 2014 it could be said that Part I of the Boeing 787 Marketing Strategy will be anchored into the company's big picture game plan. Another 100 787's will be booked with confidence in the aircraft, its just not a good concept with amazing promise, its a reality with a budding legacy. The A350 and A330 becomes old before everyone eyes as the 787 dominance emerges. The press has to go back to school and learn new words besides "three years late" or "glitch". Writing it over 500 hundred times doesn't make a article worthy of a pay check.
The Max is the airplane no one saw coming and will surpass expectation before it is built. Boeing is great at doing what it does, continuous improvement cycle will make the Max better than the paper airplane it sold to its customers. Boeing tends to error on the side of conservative estimates. The Max in 2014 will show in test it will exceed the sales pitch by several percentage points. The engine and aircraft refinements will make the NEO just a customer preference with Airbus not the lead in the Market. Another technological advancement on the Max will be revealed before the end of 2014 that will excite single aisle crowd. Boeing is secretly targeting putting its best with the best, i.e. Renton with the MAX and Everett and the 777. Boeing is going to fix Charleston in 2014-15 and turn it into an "Everett" like success it needs.
The 777 in 2014 will see ground breaking infrastructure in the NW region with a wing plant and other ancillary production points needed for the program. Its not just for the life of the 10 year union contract, it will enable Boeing to go to the next stage in manufacturing advanced aircraft for both the military and commercial aviation. Boeing has a defense industry plan and new technologies developed in the commercial, share a military application when completed. The 777 technology is a synergistic core for other applications throughout the corporation. As is the 737 has been applied to the military and 767 is is new tanker program. Therefore, placing the new 777 in the NW supports Boeing's "other" ventures such as drone technology is found in commercial applications. Especially the zero visibility landing and take-offs for commercial aircraft. The NW in the future will become the US Air Force key resource center.
In conclusion 2014 will be a reconciliation year for the 787 and a hay maker year for the 737 and an ah ha moment for the 777-8 and -9 as customers really examine the the proposal, boosting another 150 sales beyond the the first 280 sold and in the file drawer. It is concievable that the 737 will continue sales numbers in 2014 where Airbus will realize that both the A350 and NEO will be second choice aircraft after customers make comparisons on the bottom line.
First is a quick review of 2013 findings:
It was found that Boeing has a star player, The 787:
- The Battery Fires found Boeing production delayed but not out.
- The multiple glitches reported found the 787 indoors too many times.
- Norwegian Airlines requested remedial assistance from Boeing
- Japan Air Lines Slapped Boeing in the face with an Airbus A350 Order
- Air India started acting like a real airline with Boeing's many 787 problems
- 182 new 787 orders is an Indication the 787 is a sound and valued business venture.
- Boeing is resolute with its 787 out of belief rather than the other option of "do over"
The second star player is the 737 MAX and it was found:
- The 737 had an enormous year orders, about 797 orders and counting.
- Design progress is an indication Boeing has a target better than the NEO
- It was found that a sufficient number of customers agree.
- Ryan Air has its own strategic plan using the NG (175 ordered)
- Dual Flight Feathers is the new Black.
- The 737 Max is doable and on time, not fashionably late with this model.
The Final Stars are the 777-8 and 777-9
- Boeing found on paper it can beat Airbus with a wider aspiration in a metal body.
- It was found that the right launch customer is the best recommendation.
- More 777 orders are ready for 2014
- The 777 is going to be built on the "Best of Boeing" called "wings and things".
- 280 orders and commitments are on paper
2014 Recommendation:
Boeing must keep its head and not do "Crazy Ivans" in the boardroom. They have a well thought out strategy, "don't fix it if ain't broke" is your 2014 mission statement.
...................................................................................................
Now for the 2014 peanut gallery, "2014 strategic out look".
The 787 program will see a diminishing glitch factor in the program by June 2014 it will have to implement its marketing swagger, once again, by announcing the 787 is the "New Black" for airlines seeing red during 2013 when it grounded the 787. The 787 will have nearly 200 787 in the air by end of 2014, before the A350 is delivered. The question is, will Airbus carry the fear that the A350 can't match the 787 on any level? The reliability question will be retired and the 787 will reach its true fulfillment of the most advanced and reliable aircraft ever built. The 787 is the new standard for passengers and that they will measure everything against the 787. By year's end, more aircraft from Boeing take-off with more people flying on them, also by the end of 2014 it could be said that Part I of the Boeing 787 Marketing Strategy will be anchored into the company's big picture game plan. Another 100 787's will be booked with confidence in the aircraft, its just not a good concept with amazing promise, its a reality with a budding legacy. The A350 and A330 becomes old before everyone eyes as the 787 dominance emerges. The press has to go back to school and learn new words besides "three years late" or "glitch". Writing it over 500 hundred times doesn't make a article worthy of a pay check.
The Max is the airplane no one saw coming and will surpass expectation before it is built. Boeing is great at doing what it does, continuous improvement cycle will make the Max better than the paper airplane it sold to its customers. Boeing tends to error on the side of conservative estimates. The Max in 2014 will show in test it will exceed the sales pitch by several percentage points. The engine and aircraft refinements will make the NEO just a customer preference with Airbus not the lead in the Market. Another technological advancement on the Max will be revealed before the end of 2014 that will excite single aisle crowd. Boeing is secretly targeting putting its best with the best, i.e. Renton with the MAX and Everett and the 777. Boeing is going to fix Charleston in 2014-15 and turn it into an "Everett" like success it needs.
The 777 in 2014 will see ground breaking infrastructure in the NW region with a wing plant and other ancillary production points needed for the program. Its not just for the life of the 10 year union contract, it will enable Boeing to go to the next stage in manufacturing advanced aircraft for both the military and commercial aviation. Boeing has a defense industry plan and new technologies developed in the commercial, share a military application when completed. The 777 technology is a synergistic core for other applications throughout the corporation. As is the 737 has been applied to the military and 767 is is new tanker program. Therefore, placing the new 777 in the NW supports Boeing's "other" ventures such as drone technology is found in commercial applications. Especially the zero visibility landing and take-offs for commercial aircraft. The NW in the future will become the US Air Force key resource center.
In conclusion 2014 will be a reconciliation year for the 787 and a hay maker year for the 737 and an ah ha moment for the 777-8 and -9 as customers really examine the the proposal, boosting another 150 sales beyond the the first 280 sold and in the file drawer. It is concievable that the 737 will continue sales numbers in 2014 where Airbus will realize that both the A350 and NEO will be second choice aircraft after customers make comparisons on the bottom line.
Saturday, January 4, 2014
Alice Springs Australia 10 Day Weather Forecast 787-9 Test
Are you an AV Geek? I am, so here is the 10 day weather forecast at Alice Springs Australia for the heat condition tests during next week. Next weekend they should run the AC and do its easy bake testing. Click on DETAILS for each days up to date information.
IAM Joins The Real World And Votes Yes For The 777X
The 51 to 49% vote to continue building airplanes for Boeing, validates IAM workers love for buying cars, having mortgages and gaining an education for its children. They woke up Saturday morning and could tell there children go ahead and pick out a prom dress and plan your senior trip. Another IAM proposes to get married and an older IAM cashes in retirement and buys gold. The NW Washington communities can now get back to doing what they do best, making Puget Sound greener than what can be made green by raising property taxes in 2014. "These are a few of my favorite things" shouting out from the Olympic range of mountains as Boeing caused the Union to blink, then think and by a slim 2% edge, confirm that $25 dollars an hour is better than 26 weeks of unemployment at $375 a week, is the only choice. IAM has corporate's number and will at some point in time come back, and make the point, "we took a bullet for the team", mantra will haunt the newer Executives who will go 10 years into the future; A VP or CEO can make some serious cash before leaving in the next five years. They then will make those cheesy statements," it would be better to spend more time with the family at home and cash those bonus checks at work before a revisit comes forward in 2023 with the IAM.
Of course many things will have happened by then that will nullify the IAM. Boeing would be smart establishing an infrastructure of engineering schools and machining arts at a non union manufacturing cabal in order to blunt more Union agitation down the road. One thing Boeing could do is just fail to address labor in the long run and go fish off shore. However, if they want to put Airbus away as a second tier manufacturer they really need to stop procrastinating with its people. In Boeing South Carolina (BSC) they run 12 hour shifts, hire raw worker unfamiliar with aviation and turn over a large workforce of burned out workers. That dog won't hunt any longer. They have to take care of its work horses. They need real leadership for its workforce, with both the labor and front office coming together in a plan. Management by memo or walking by is the way of the dinosaur when you delegate HR to hire 5,000 bodies to build 787's in South Carolina. After two years, they are worn out and can't put two 787's a month out the door correctly. The newly trained experience "walks" when exhausted after multiple 12 hour shifts. Labor force continuity begins to fails Boeing, as workers (newbies) are replacing burn outs who can do it, but not anymore. The leadership failure in SC screams volumes and the failed strategy is exposed. BSC needed to successfully to deal with the IAM through a well executed labor plan. Do I need to say the obvious. Okay, I will. "The failure is in the leadership down to the floor." Cramming the factory with crazy shifts is a plan for failure. It has been studied and restudied, that 8-9 hours shifts are optimal for quality and production performance. Overtime or long shifts "only" work in burst of time. A twelve hour shift does not optimise the worker, but it may optimize some efficiency by having fewer shift transitions each day.
When a flubbed product comes out the door that effiency savings from fewer shift transitions are wiped out with great time and money. Thus resulting in only two aircraft a month, if lucky! A triage center is set up on the flight line. With hundreds of your best and most experienced workers scrambling around over and under airplanes that were moved outside to get them flight worthy. The talent is no longer in the building, it's out side receiving a repair project/updates as if it were somewhere in world broken down. That scenario is true and comes back on the leadership. Production management sucks in BSC. I know because I read the newspaper. Boeing needs its best leadership in this crises on the floor. It needs its best and most experienced machinist and engineers shoring up the product on the floor. The flight line needs to operate with a mop up crew with all its systems validation done out side.
Poor Workmanship must be retired in the factory. Last month they had a factory accident that caused Boeing to resuffle the whole line. It made several models out of sequence and delayed December production at a crusial time. The accident occured and significantly damaged the production aircraft.
My Questions:
Of course many things will have happened by then that will nullify the IAM. Boeing would be smart establishing an infrastructure of engineering schools and machining arts at a non union manufacturing cabal in order to blunt more Union agitation down the road. One thing Boeing could do is just fail to address labor in the long run and go fish off shore. However, if they want to put Airbus away as a second tier manufacturer they really need to stop procrastinating with its people. In Boeing South Carolina (BSC) they run 12 hour shifts, hire raw worker unfamiliar with aviation and turn over a large workforce of burned out workers. That dog won't hunt any longer. They have to take care of its work horses. They need real leadership for its workforce, with both the labor and front office coming together in a plan. Management by memo or walking by is the way of the dinosaur when you delegate HR to hire 5,000 bodies to build 787's in South Carolina. After two years, they are worn out and can't put two 787's a month out the door correctly. The newly trained experience "walks" when exhausted after multiple 12 hour shifts. Labor force continuity begins to fails Boeing, as workers (newbies) are replacing burn outs who can do it, but not anymore. The leadership failure in SC screams volumes and the failed strategy is exposed. BSC needed to successfully to deal with the IAM through a well executed labor plan. Do I need to say the obvious. Okay, I will. "The failure is in the leadership down to the floor." Cramming the factory with crazy shifts is a plan for failure. It has been studied and restudied, that 8-9 hours shifts are optimal for quality and production performance. Overtime or long shifts "only" work in burst of time. A twelve hour shift does not optimise the worker, but it may optimize some efficiency by having fewer shift transitions each day.
When a flubbed product comes out the door that effiency savings from fewer shift transitions are wiped out with great time and money. Thus resulting in only two aircraft a month, if lucky! A triage center is set up on the flight line. With hundreds of your best and most experienced workers scrambling around over and under airplanes that were moved outside to get them flight worthy. The talent is no longer in the building, it's out side receiving a repair project/updates as if it were somewhere in world broken down. That scenario is true and comes back on the leadership. Production management sucks in BSC. I know because I read the newspaper. Boeing needs its best leadership in this crises on the floor. It needs its best and most experienced machinist and engineers shoring up the product on the floor. The flight line needs to operate with a mop up crew with all its systems validation done out side.
Poor Workmanship must be retired in the factory. Last month they had a factory accident that caused Boeing to resuffle the whole line. It made several models out of sequence and delayed December production at a crusial time. The accident occured and significantly damaged the production aircraft.
My Questions:
- Were the best people on the floor when this happened?;
- Where were the leaders at the moment of the accident, were they outside ?
- How long had the accident shift been running, how many hours?
Answers to these questions and other similar question may reveal my point that Boeing has given the IAM ammunition. The A Team is needed in BSC.
Friday, January 3, 2014
Reposting Comment From The Guardian "The Case Of The A380"
Rarely does one come a cross a post that makes a salient point worthy of reposting. But I came across this comment on the Guardian today and felt it would be worthy of reposting about the case
Repost: by: Pat Logan (Without his permission and worth the read, please say yes to reposting , and thank you.)
Gaurdian Link
"I see most have rightly picked up on the lack of comparability of the two aircraft - I'd even go further and say that the A350-787 comparisons are wrong, as for most A350 variants the competition will be the B777X.
Repost: by: Pat Logan (Without his permission and worth the read, please say yes to reposting , and thank you.)
Gaurdian Link
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Aspire Aviation's Big Story
Aspire Aviation Big Story
Starting 2014 out with the big 777X is very an appropriate story. What I've done is to paraphrase this article with Liftndrag commentary. Please feel free to set up a second browsing tag with Aspire link above or just go there now to get its real scoop on the 777X program and projected performance targets for the 777X. Aspire has compared several notable class airplanes that 777X will do battle with during its progressions forward into the market place.
It is important to note that Boeing continues to have several rabbits in its engineering hat that will appear along the way. I would like this blog to spot those "rabbits" as they appear along the developmental road. Aspire only reports what is known at this point in time. Customers of the 777X may have additional and achievable bench marks on the 777X given by Boeing, that readers, pundits lack for its own opinion. I fall into the class of not having a precise opinion at this time, but have gathered clues why Boeing is doing the 777X in this manner.
This Manner is:
Starting 2014 out with the big 777X is very an appropriate story. What I've done is to paraphrase this article with Liftndrag commentary. Please feel free to set up a second browsing tag with Aspire link above or just go there now to get its real scoop on the 777X program and projected performance targets for the 777X. Aspire has compared several notable class airplanes that 777X will do battle with during its progressions forward into the market place.
It is important to note that Boeing continues to have several rabbits in its engineering hat that will appear along the way. I would like this blog to spot those "rabbits" as they appear along the developmental road. Aspire only reports what is known at this point in time. Customers of the 777X may have additional and achievable bench marks on the 777X given by Boeing, that readers, pundits lack for its own opinion. I fall into the class of not having a precise opinion at this time, but have gathered clues why Boeing is doing the 777X in this manner.
This Manner is:
- Composite wings and flight surfaces
- Aluminum body not composite
- Bleed By Pass power for subsystems not the 787's central core all electric technology
- Heavier than the competition
- Bigger drag coefficient because of bigger diameter engines
- Greater lift surfaces with intuitive performance
- Greater passenger capability of 400+ seats
- Widest dual engine aircraft available. Its more than the XWB!
- It will fly better father with more people, even at a greater weight.
Aspire Aviation Chart
Aspire Observation:
"Together with the 9,300nm ultra long-haul 777-8X that is capable of hauling 17 more tonnes of cargo when deployed on the same mission as the 344-seat A350-1000 while having a 5% lower block fuel burn per seat, or flying sectors that its competitor cannot, it would be safe to assume Boeing believes the 777X will be the ultra long-haul leader in the future.
Unsurprisingly, Airbus contests these figures and points out it estimates the 777-9X will be up to 35 tonnes heavier than the A350-1000 in terms of operating weight empty (OWE) as the A350-1000 is a clean-sheet design and utilises a carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) fuselage, whereas the 777-9X is a “5th derivative” bearing an aluminium fuselage. This will make the 777-9X more than 15% less fuel efficient per seat and the -8X more than 5% less fuel efficient per seat versus the A350-1000."
Let the war of promotional rhetoric begin between these two giants. If Boeing could not demonstrate to the Gulf of Arabia States what they had up its sleeves from engineering departments across the company, then they wouldn't have ordered 259 777X, after which Boeing rapidly picked up Cathy Pacific. A quick move counter to Airbus aspirations in its order book. They didn't receive any order of that nature during Boeing's 777X launch. Airbus painfully watches the Boeing order grow on a paper airplane while the A350 reality languishes. A boatload of 777X paper airplanes is a definitive slap on Airbus' nose. My best guess on this example is that Boeing made its case in greater clarity than normal. They showed these initial launch customers where they are keeping those cute little rabbits with a promise on how the trick is done with its heavier airplanes. Conventional wisdom says that Airbus uses an old school slide rule where it has computed Boeing over-weight into an inefficiency when comparing its A350-10 with the Boeing 777X. Boeing wings and body building divisions have a new bag since Christmas. They build world leading wings and have done body/airflow design changes, bringing out the best with its laminar air flows knowledge over its body. The body design adjust flows at key points that maximizes its slice through the air. Thus nullifying those suspended additional tons, as a penalty that Airbus' slide rule predicts. Boeing has been doing this research for awhile and has hinted that its conclusion will go forward with an active flight service and optimized composite wing that will retire the old school curriculum with a wrecking ball applications to Airbus school walls.
Its always in the details that gets competitors like Airbus. Slippery aircraft slide through the air significantly better than Big Box behemoths like the A380 or an A350.
I took specialize driver training as a requirement for my state employment. I drove ambulances, school buses and dump trucks through chicanes, skid pads and other devious situations to test my newly acquired advance driving skills. In a school bus it is a cumbersome behemoth on a narrow course. It wasn't a fuel efficient slippery thing of beauty, Neither is an A350. I hit the skip pad with water jets and the instructor activated emergency brakes. A 360 turn had just begun, and I had to control it. Had I had a sports bus weighing the same as a standard school bus I would have saved fuel and would have controlled its performance no matter the conditions. Enough digressing already! Boeing has demonstrated and not reported its summary to its customers who bought the 777X. They listened to Airbus and didn't buy period!
Therefore, no matter what Airbus says at this time from its own conventional wisdom, which doesn't take into account what Boeing attempts to do for the 777X. Final weight (tonage) are pending as the 777X matures. Boeing promised a plan as they promised with the 787. Airbus said, "impossible, improbable and its not going to happen with the 787". The 787 happened and yet we now have the A350 (improbable plastic), about to get kicked by a little of the old school, and then some new school in the 777X. Airbus, once has to say again impossible, improbable, and inconceivable (From Movie: Princess Bride).
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Go back to the mid-late 1990s, and Airbus and Boeing reached opposite decisions about whether it was worth putting several billions into developing a 747 successor. Boeing opted for a relatively cheap rewinging and upgrade to produce the 747-8 and Airbus went for the 380. Boeing reckoned on a market of around 700 aircraft by 2030, Airbus reckoned 1700+. By 2006, market estimates by independent experts were in the 400-800 range.
Developing the A380 cost about €11Bn. It's at 259 orders, some 8 1/2 years after it's first flight. It's never yet hit the production rates that were forecast when the programme was launched, and by next year, it looks like Airbus will be having to build "white-tail" aircraft - i.e. built in advance of orders.
The original breakeven point (i.e. recovering development and production costs) was supposed to be 270 aircraft, but as development was delayed and the dollar:euro exchange rate fell, that rose and when anyone last made an announcement it was north of 400 units - that was in 2006.
Things have got worse since then. Sales and production have both been slower, there have been fixes needed to things like wing cracks, and production costs have risen. It's also probable that there's been much heavier discounting of aircraft than originally anticipated, as Airbus needs to fill production slots. there have been claims of discounts as high as 40% against list price.
Airbus is now only saying that the aircraft will break even on a unit basis (i.e the sales price will be higher than the production cost) in about 2015 (based on comments in 2010). Every aircraft delivered until then will have made a loss for Airbus. Note that it's only AFTER unit breakeven that any contribution is made to recover development and finance costs.
There have been 61 net orders over the last five years - a rate of 12/year. The delivery rate is about 20-25/year (and was originally supposed to be 30+)
They've been utterly quiet on when programme breakeven will happen for several years now. On a reasonable commercial guess, allowing for Airbus carrying the €11bn development cost on the books, plus delivering over 100 aircraft at a loss, plus the fact that Emirates has them by the balls and will be driving a VERY hard bargain for the aircraft they're taking, that breakeven point will have now to be well above the 400 forecast in 2006 - doing some crude numbers, and assuming the white-tails at best break even, I suspect north of 600 units.
Oh, and of the aircraft currently on order, 30 are for an airline in receivership - "Kingfisher" of India.
Sooner or later, Airbus is going to have to take a huge write-down on the development cost of the A380. Which is going to mean that the French, German, UK and other governments will lose all of their launch-aid loans.
It's a hellish impressive pain - but it's looking like a commercial disaster." End Quote
Exactly my friend!