The Dog Days Of Delay "The Glitch's That Steals Christmas"

A Christmas tale comes our way with a dark slant towards, "The Glitch That Stole Christmas", is a real reality that plagues airlines like Air India.  Boeing moved its overly complex 787 to market without testing the supply chain completeness from its suppliers to real world flow of five to ten 787 a month. Coming out of its factory (X's 2). During the testing phase all parts came across in a carefully considered, and tested manner for each test aircraft LN1-LN6.  Production floor of real time assembly was not part of tests that would measure reliability for all its supplying partners. Everybody came across and said "A OK",  and no problem man! Or welcome to Jamaica! Or something clear like that when asked about how they will do when asked about productivity of the 787, and its output each month. Battery was A-OK and checked in 2010 and ready to come out and play.

Air India became a constant complainer that I have taken shots at as they managed the excuse flow in a constant stream every time a delivery was ready on the Boeing board. It seemed the Glitch would steal a delivery and make India's financial planners gleeful as the next 787 would sit another 3 weeks before a delivery. It made the cash flow operations of Air India flexible.

Air India’s Dreamliner fleet has had 136 ‘minor’ problems: Ajit Singh

One hundred thirty-six Minor's hit its fleet during 14 months,, breaks down to about 10 glitches a month with its fleet of 8, 787. Or about one glitch a month for each aircraft if your an averaging type of person. The glitches that stole Christmas for Air India was wide a varied suggesting production is not spot on or its suppliers have consistently provided that Boeing depends on. ANA has had problems too as well as JAL Where JAL has demonstrated a loss vote of confidence through its Airbus A350 order earlier this Fall. Those 31 Airbus were a symbolic block number that Boeing expected and did not receive when considering it would get a follow-on order from JAL, as JAL continued building of its wide body fleet, only with Airbus. However Air India does lend support to the glitching as not something insurmountable and something that can be manage. Many of Boeing's customers are in the same condition as Air India with the "Glitch That's Stealing Christmas" problem. 

Note from India:

"New Delhi: Air India’s Dreamliner fleet suffered 136 “minor” technical problems between their delivery since September last year and till late last month, civil aviation minister Ajit Singh has said.

All these problems were fixed by the airline’s and Boeing’s technical teams, he said in Lok Sabha. Observing that a Boeing team was currently in India to upgrade the software in these planes, he said each Boeing 787 Dreamliner is being grounded for ten days since the beginning of this month for maintenance and these upgrades.

Since September 2012, when the plane’s induction began, till 27 November this year, “136 minor technical snags have occurred on these aircraft which were fixed by Boeing/Air India technical teams with alacrity,” he said in reply to questions.

Observing that Air India was constantly in touch with Boeing on the issue of technical reliability of these new aircraft, he said a team of engineers and technicians from the American manufacturer was installing a reliability enhancement package involving upgrades to the software and components in the aircraft. The Boeing team is also involved in the root cause analysis and evolving remedial measures, he said."

Another Glitch related gremlin remark follows:

"Regarding a panel falling out of the belly of one Dreamliner as it landed in Bengaluru few months ago, Singh said the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) was probing the incident and its report is awaited.

On the overseas battery-fire incident this January involving the same aircraft operated by a Japanese carrier and consequential grounding of Dreamliners the world over, the minister said the requisite rectification was carried out on the battery units of the aircraft of Air India, following which the planes were put back in service in May."

Air India is ready to move forward with its investment. It is interesting to note how subdued the Indian response is for all those 136 glitches on its fleet. Perhaps all that irritated posturing before each delivery from a glitch was a an exhale and a sigh of relief they purchased a winner. The glitch wants to steal Christmas as the press eagerly awaits its next problem found in an emerging aircraft. The sanctification of the Boeing 787 is not long in the wait. Boeing has tasked itself with an all hands on deck assembly of its most expert team members for tracking down anomalies found on the 787. The first 787-9 will be light years ahead of the LN10 aircraft sitting in Everett's EMC warehouse awaiting upgrades to the level of the last 787 built this week. Those aircraft in the EMC are sitting for a long while more since both the customer  and Boeing are waiting together for a completeness delivery time. That time is driven by the customer as to when it will take delivery. Those terrible teens are deeply discounted early production numbers. Each month that goes by, is one more month in EMC catching up those aircraft with today's out the door delivery. Once the customer signals ready for delivery, they will be delivered within two months of that call out.

The Glitch that Steals Christmas is any lack of patience in this process of meeting original expectation. Expectation starts with this short list.

• 15% fuel economy over current aircraft. Done= 20%
• All electric architecture is the answer= Battery issue is a RIP issue today
• Systems Update requirements. Ongoing for the life of computer systems and airplane

These are of the few of the major issue not defined after the first dozen delivered aircraft. The Glitching really going down and has permanent installations or solutions driving each glitch away from the aircraft. Software upgrades, installation procedures correcting weaknesses revealed during long term operation, and changes in the supply chain. All these are the maturation of any aircraft model. Overstating for what it really is, is how the news works. The 787 is made with millions first time parts and systems is doing well as expected. Millions of opportunities exist out there with this overly tested aircraft. But the right combinations of conditions come up on the 787 during daily operations. 

That is where safety measure anticipate any kind of failure and report. Once the 787 lands a s system reports that 136th glitch to Air India and Boeing is brought in to perfect the 787 one more time. The 787 is being cured as a fine piece of art fused with science and engineering. The glitch report makes it one step closer too perfection watching those millions lines of code, million parts, and the all new architecture  never before used. Now the customer have its say through how the 787 speaks to them. Boeing relies on the 787 feedback after its rigorous testing program. Because of the glitching the customers are building a better aircraft. Airbus can't say that at this time. The best aircraft will emerge in two years at which time the 787 maturation is dependent on what the 787 reports. 

It will heal itself by flying more and more. The systems are there to keep it so safe and dependable. The battery glitch is the prime example. In another era you would have seen a sky bound fire ball without any solution. The 787 landed safely multiple times with battery issues, enabling a battery solution of major importance. The longer the 787 flies in this stage the greater Boeing sets a lead over it competition with its gamble.

When The MAX Flies Will The NEO Flee?

It’s coming to the point of Boeing's pre-flight (fight) bravado will soon enter the ring for the knock down drag out fight for single aisle supremacy of the world. As the Max enters the market ring, it will have to demonstrate to its customers if it has the chops to defeat the NEO. In a knock down drag out fight to the bitter end. Its own customers are the fans around the flight ring. The ring announcer is now reciting the exploits of each contender. Boeing has announced its "Tale of the Tape".

In this corner is the MAX:

• The Boeing Max has 13% better fuel than current or similar models flying
• The Boeing Max carries more seats than its competitors.
• The Boeing Max has the "Edge Program".
• The MAX new CFM, is a purpose built high efficiency engine.
• The MAX has dual feathers that will take where you need and want to go.
• The MAX commonalities sync with the worlds most advanced aircraft.
• The support staff can do its job quicker and more effectively with the MAX.  

And in this corner is the NEO:

• The NEO is a New Engineered Offering.
• It has the majority of the fans in the house at 60%
• It is 5% more efficient than current models flying
• It doesn't have the Boeing Edge
• It holds less seats than the MAX.
• It maintains commonalities with the A-350 that hasn't reached the market.
• The support staff cannot train it to keep up with its competitor. 

This fight will not allow price gouging, no order holds, and finally no grounding biting. Shake hands and may the best single aisle win! The is the preview for the fight during the next 20 years for certainly something new will come of age by 2030 as manufacturing technology catches up with today's plastic designs. 

The brave new world of Boeing took the first big step in making an all plastic hull. Even though other airplane makers made smaller versions of plastic aircraft, but not on this scale or technological enhancements. 

The problems that the 787 have become lessons learned. While other airplane makers try to avoid by not installing that technology. Making those competitors airplanes less robust, but more manageable during operations. Once the 787 matures (it’s almost there in that maturity) it will be light years ahead of its competitor. The year 2014 promises full maturation for the 787. 

The maturation of the 787 transcends to the MAX and  the 777. The full circle of Boeing's goals will be achieved in 2014 through a 787 completeness process during operational cycles. Always improving will not retire, but makes its original vision achieved for the Boeing's aircraft family during 2014. 

Much work remains, but the "much work" is more purpose directed through its retired risks from its most advanced program. That completeness process will continue until that day the 787 receives its championship heavy weight belt. 

The coming of the MAX is bringing forward what really exceptionally works from all of Boeing's programs. The funnel of Boeing's intellectual capital flows down to its multi funneled tips, whether it’s the MAX program, 787 or 777. 

I don't mention the 747-8i, because it’s a forgone conclusion that Boeing is waiting on the market development, before it tries its next big Jumbo project. The 747-8i is just a sponge, in that it sponges off from everything from Boeing’s project to keep it relevant and operational. 

There is not enough market remaining to go all-in and battle the A-380's share of the market. However, it is a staunch niche airplane type that has a shelf life within that its special market. Keeping the 747 alive is a strategy that maybe the market will come back to it as the A-380 flounders eventually. I would expect a 747 class twin as the next right sized Jumbo. The 777-9 is a progression towards that end. A 450 seat Jumbo twin with a 747 moniker is a possibility today but will wait after they 777 is relaunched.

Boeing can only make the 787-8i better as each new proven technology can advance to it. The 777 is really the big player, more than the supersized A-380 play. The A-380 has to redesign airports as they proudly clog terminal areas. The 777 dual engines will retire the Jumbos from passenger use. 

The 747- 8F can reconfigure to haul basketball gym size cargo loads as exampled by the 747-400 dream lifting mission for the 787 project. The 747 has a future with a specific purpose. The A-380 future is in question by its customers. The Middle East has a scheme that desires nothing but capacity for people.

The world cannot accommodate a wide spread use of the A-380 with its current airports unless those airports expand. Doing so would literally scatter traffic in its wake on final approach. Not a happy proposition for airports that has heavy traffic. London Heathrow and LAX to name a few, wedge those flights in. It isn't for the likes of San Diego or the Caribbean. 

This article is about the fly and the flea. The Max will fly as the NEO will flee in time. The early orders for the NEO during its inception, did not have a MAX as a contender. So loyalty customers for Airbus poured in the orders. Even some new customers were septet-up in that first year. 

The MAX arrived 18 months later and has been on a steady march forward and is closing the gap. What will be interesting are those neutral customers in a head to head sales competition, for which type they will choose. I admit I haven't looked at those types of competition at this time, but is a worthy project to do so. 

My next 737 vs the NEO project is to look at the split order sales and try to look at the customer on how they ordered and for what reason.

Looking at the pre-flight Boeing Bravado, makes me feel they actually have a winner. However, I never underestimate a worthy contender like Airbus. If what Boeing says about the MAX, if in fact is not fiction about the MAX, then the Market place will validate the MAX with follow-on orders after both airplanes are in operation. 

Right now it’s a loyalty battle and a curiosity endeavor for those who are unsure, but want to find out. The NEO has a strong order book from loyal customers, the curious and bargain hunters. Even though Boeing was late into the game they have made up substantial ground, and have saved its single aisle program from the flight of the Do-Do Bird. The Max will in deed fly, and the NEO will take its respectful place in the market when all is finished.

The Great Middle East Airplane Heist

In Real Estate its always been about location, location, and Location! All others will just have to pound sand since they don't have location. The Middle East or the "Gulf States", as known to everyone else. Has three important things going for it.

• Sand
• Location
• Oil

After hiring, "the brightest minds", with its vast amounts of cash, and showing those minds, the vast amounts of sand, they asked, 

"what about your location?  

This is not much of a business bringing people into 120 degrees, six months of the year", 

...was the answer from those bright minds. 

Then it was asked again, "what about Location?? "  

Answer:  "We could bring 100,000 of thousands of people in (for just pounding sand), while in the 120 degree temperature. It worked well for Las Vegas where we dropped a lot of oil money on those showgirls and blinking lights on the strip."

One bright mind in the back of the room, was playing with "his personnel device", much to astonishment of those gathered in that hot place.

This air conditioned palatial room, was built on a hot piece of sand blown real estate. It sits next to the Gulf of Arabia. All eyes in room turned to that "mind", of which those were hypnotised on him, and him playing the device. He looks up startled, and shouts out, 

"what about location!!!"

The whole room erupts into laughter, since it was the "third location reference" in as few same minutes.

Embarrassed and sheepish, that bright mind seeks a quick recovery from his aloof statement,

"I'm not just holding an IPod, I'm holding a Magellan GPS, and an air travel mapping system."

More laughter erupts!

This poor guy can't catch a break, and he will probably be sent out on a long errand looking for for desert water.

Thinking quick with his Harvard MBA, school educated mind, he makes a quick schooled response, while referencing his laser pointer, and the big screen showing the world map.

"Dubai and Doha are in the center of that map.  In fact it is placed on the center of all wall maps."

Smugly and silently thinking to himself, 

"I'm not going for "no stinkin water" in the desert, I'm in it to win it today".

"Dubai is located here on the map, right dead center of the travel world! Just when people think they want to go somewhere by flying around the world, they fly over Dubai or Doha. London doesn't have anymore real estate, nor does Los Angeles or Frankfurt. For that matter we can buy satellite feeder locations throughout the world, as in Australia, or through Qantas airlines, using a code sharing scheme. Let us begin to market the Middle East as a world center for your dreams, by getting people in and out to their destinations in an efficient cheaper manner, than trying to buy new centers in already congested airports regions, found around the world."

You could hear a pin drop in the silent room. In fact someone dropped their platinum diamond studded writing pin in on the floor. Everyone acted annoyed, because it interrupted the room full of minds trained on thought. The roomful of minds knew he grabbed onto something, then he blurted out, 

"We have the location, the money and the courage!" 

The room erupted in cheers and applause. Dubai was whispered about as the fifth course of food and drink was brought in. The mind that dared play with personnel device, was asked by many if they could look at his GPS, you know, that same device that he had just played with a few minutes ago.

Location is what the Middle East has, there are only a few other places in the world that could pull this plan off. The major airlines of the world will have to come to them in a code share exchange. Chicago O'Hare has congestion and is wintered. Where they will accept long legged 777-8's and 9's carrying 350-407 passengers to the Gulf, and then onto another A380 bus ride. The Gulf would send a mix of passengers coming in from many airline arrivals, and them  out onto high density destinations with its larger seat count (525). A mass quantity elsewhere. Direct flights from A to B around the world doesn't necessarily need the A380 all the time, but it will need the 777-9 or 8 most of the time. The other airlines will will be dance partners found on its dance card. United airline can't buy this location nor can Singapore Air. They can only share this location on our terms. The desert here has added value more than just oil.

A Las Vegas type synergy is is not a Gulf State plan. Vegas was a gas stop in the desert during the 1950's. So Vegas marketed things that adults would not like the folks back home to know about. That Vegas synergy built it a bigger airport, and a bigger city of over a million. Connecting like minded pleasure seekers to its desert isolation.

The Gulf states has its own synergy built on its location, and can choose to build business and geopolitical attractions as an adjunct to that location. Las Vegas does not have location. It just has... well you know, it has Vegas, and Hoover Dam. So its synergistic tendencies are limited to sun, sand and sin, and is certainly not the center of the world on the wall map. The Gulf states are poised for globalization transits and can be a facilitator for the worlds Global meetings. Hosting the world on a grand scheme, without distractions, but with plush amenities is perfect for this Globalized world that most people are not aware during these last ten years.

Whereas, The Gulf states, because how the globe is positioned with people all over the place, is in the central location to make world ends meet its means in Dubai. The synergy is phenomenal. The Arab states realize this, and the all the remaining airline world can do is buy hub busters like the 777 and 787's as a competitor. The Arab states are Super Hub Compliant. The crowded Northern metros are overbuilt and can't add many more Super Hubs expansions for its airspace and its available land. Both of which the Arab states have in abundance for synergistic growth. Location, Land and Logistical Skies. This will also bring a second tier of expansion to the Gulf States. A place to meet and greet and do business on a world's largest scale class. The goals of the Gulf states are not even on the radar screen yet as evidenced by the world press. The massive purchases at Dubai for the 777, 787 and A380 are the small steps taken for that ultimate goal of being the major world player; dominating travel and commerce from its Super Hubs, and purpose built flight lines for that end. Finally, Dubai and Doha are leaving its competitors pounding sand in its wake.

Dubai Is A Sand Station That The Others Will Begin Pounding Together For ITs Share Codes as the Gulf States Dominate. Jet A fuel is not the only thing it produces. Location is the new Oil.


So the heist is all those airplanes the Arab states will pull in from other airlines as code shares. 

Why Convience Stores, Fast Foods and Supermarkets Sell Soda Water as "Pop"

My early years saw me as a manager of a small convenience and gas station store. I got used to the terminology  of "lost leaders" Gross profit margins and marketing stimulus. The whole concept is based on your inventory and how it contributes to profitability. Today's aircraft are much like that convenience store. Buy a large Slurpee for $1.99 and get a free Hot dog. At first I didn't understand the salesmanship in that lost leader (Slurpee/Dog Deal) drives the aviation industry. Configuration is simply packaging appeal. JetStar fills its seats like popcorn with 335 seats on one 787-8. Then ANA orders  46 business seats of Slurpee's with its 112 Vienna sausage tins back in economy for its marketing scheme. Before you let loose of your cookies and milk, via a nose/food transfusion. I got into my convenience store 101 mode and came up with a Tokyo to Frankfurt or Slurpee and sausage route.

The Slurpee is only crushed ice with a flavoring of syrup squirted on top, making a drink selling for $1.99. As store manager, I read those labels coming off the delivery truck seeing what is contributing to the stores gross product margin. Those slurpees' came in at an astounding .18 cent cost factor, selling for a 1.99 per cup during a hot day crises, that's what it made the store money. Those lousy Vienna sausages in a tin were sold for a 1.99 and made the store only 18% profit margin or 36 cents on a two dollar purchase.  The Slurpee made the store $1.61 shoving out those drinks that cost the store only 38 cents on the drink.

Let us take 112 Vienna sausages to Frankfurt as well, analyzing what those 112 seats will do?


*That $1,000 seat (sausage tin) will buy a lot of things on this flight.

787 full tank of trip fuel (Trip Fuel amount necessary for the route, payload weight, conditions)

• Crew cost up to the business class.

• Ground crew and airport fees.

• Overhead cost from the flight. (Fixed on each flight)

• Maintenance allocation of cost for each flight.

• All Other Incidental costs I am not aware of:

*(The bullet points is what it will buy for the airline as a lost leader seat)

Total revenue pool from ANA's Economy Sausages. 112 * 1,000 tickets = $112,000 Revenue with a Profit margin of 18 % or 91, 820 in cost allocation from Economy.

Business Class ANA: The Slurpee's 46 Revenue seats of $1,800 =$82,000 ttl and a cost 18% = 14,760.

Gross profit Slurpee dollars at 82%= 62,240
Gross profit Vienna Sausage Dollars= 20,160

Total flight Gross Profit Dollars= $82,400 receiving $194,000 in revenue.

ANA 46 seats are the Slurpee's purchased at the convenience store, and the Vienna sausages are just impulsive grocery purchases. Jet Star philosophical business strategy is to fit as much sausages into  its 787-8, and make money in a mono blend seating regimen for profit. Configuration in the variable item to make money as the 787  is the constant (C) in this formulation. Ability for Variable configurations maximize the profit margin in a more robust market for business travelers, than a market just for people moving on vacations or visits to friends around the world. ANA penchant for a "heavy" configuration for its passengers (whales) allows everybody else to hang out on these flights just like in Las Vegas. Casinos can afford tourist because of the "whales" on the floor.

This brings me to a conclusion, All 787's are ordered up for company variables and business strategy depending on the 787 configuration. All 787's provide a foundation that is a constant in this formula even with the headwinds. The question before customers (airlines) is not what can the 787 do for you, since you already know that a constant has been defined, but how many Slurpee's or Vienna Sausages  do you want on your aircraft?

Next time you get a coupon at McDonalds hamburger stand that invites you to buy an extra large drink for $2.49 with a free quarter pound cheese burger. The $2.49 spent buys both and becomes a lost leader until you want fries with that! The "that" part becomes pure profit.

A very rough interpretation of general and basic costs and revenue relationships, but this illustration helps visualize why ANA went with its mix of seating on long haul flights and why Jet Star stayed with "the sausage is -in-the-can", business.

Leases and Wet Leases and Other Boring Stuff

In Financial matters we were directed to the lease opinions that would effect both balance sheets and and operational financials or Revenue to EB IT processes. These slight but important adjustments are seen as mechanism to avert capital risk or benefit the cash models used to extend a company's value. The first part of leasing is knowing what current revenue streams and costs of operations affect the bottom line. A company identifies the two cash streams towards its growth as a viable company.


Part I is ownership of your primary revenue asset.. Buying the 787 was very expensive for Air India, a cash flow deprived Airline in need of assets for making them more money when digging it out of debt. Air India bought 27, 787's from now into the future. The Cash account is infused with borrowed money. The Asset to Liability balance expands in symmetrically fashion as the fleet receivers more 787. Air India in not a bottomless pit of financing and credit. As interest expense expands so does the ability for retiring debt as a constant stream of cash is parsed off to either debt interest or the reduction if principal. The next airplane comes from Boeing next month and whoa, another hit to financial credit card, and the interest or principal payment plan expands. Air India is all so aware of this is going to sell some of its Boeing 787 off the books and replace it with a lease on that same airplane. The leasing company takes on the asset as a risk in return for an income stream through its lease payment. Air India doesn't loose the asset and continue flying it in its revenue stream as always. The cash flow for Air India is given a reprieve through lower expenditures servicing a leased airplane, over servicing a purchased airplane.

A few of the benefits for Lessor vs the Lessee

Lessor.                                                      Lessee (Air India)

End lease ownership of asset             New accounting advantage from an asset
Valuation loss applied to Lessee        Greater Expense controls affecting bottom line
A financial/Revenue mechanism       Full Maximum Use of an asset Value
Opportunity to sell at end lease         Opportunity to buy a replacement Lease end


These few points really shake up the Balance Sheet and or Income Statement allowing fleet expansion to continue to its full objective of filling the market with 27 787's and meeting its goals. The 787 is hoped to resuscitates Air India. They are quietly tweaking its inventory through leasing or buying. There are so many more implications at this point, like expanding your status for future purchasing or leasing returning value from a revenue source as the 787 with less up front cash. The 7 units leased 787 or conversions from a buy program, opens up Air Iindia for more acquisitions of 787. Seven are moved in a different spot in accounting match the value flow of the aircraft with the expense flow and not  weighing down its financial picture as a steep burden it could never recover from in the cash flow department.

Wet Leases:

I own an airplane and a operational staff to fly it. You can lease my team and airplane, and stuff, if you need a hauler until you get your own toy. That is what LOT is doing during the winter months is providing a 787 for some charter company or vacation scheme for the winter. Cash flow is important for the off season in LOT's operational scheme. Flying from Warsaw Poland to Chicago IL during winter is a slow period for all Northern tier destinations in North America ffrom Poland. Providing  a wet lease is ideal for shoring up cash flows year around, but preferable during "off peak periods".


Short Term leasing hits the books differently than a Long term lease. Its a 30 day rental period and you won't find airlines doing this unless its in Hollywood on a movie set doing an airplane movie.

Long Term lease works when buying a 787 from a customer, then leasing back to that same customer, i.e. the likes of Air India. The customer uses the same signing day agreements without the airplane ever leaving your hanger. Theyy have made a profit on that day selling the 787 and leasing it back. Welcome aboard to Air India.
Air India accounting spread sheet ajusts and "viola", the books look better for buying more aircraft.

JAL Elevates To A Women's Scorn Level 5 For Boeing

Quote: Aviation Week

"Boeing and GE see JAL's move to suspend 787 operations from subtropical zones susceptible to the unusual core icing issue as a mixed signal. Though neither would comment directly last week, some within the companies consider the type's withdrawal to be an overly cautious step, while others view it as symptomatic of the increasingly difficult relationship between the airline and Boeing. The lengthy delays to the 787 and its subsequent service-entry problems have strained the JAL-Boeing rapport, which took a turn for the worse in October with the carrier's historic decision to acquire the Airbus A350-900 and -1000."

In the wake of Boeing's advisory, JAL is withdrawing 787s from service between Tokyo, New Delhi and Singapore and is suspending plans to use the type between Tokyo and Sydney. All three routes are in subtropical regions where core icing has been encountered with increasing frequency since the 1990s, in lockstep with the growing air traffic there. The unrecognized form of icing inside engines causes surges, thrust loss or power “roll-backs” with little or virtually no warning."

The order from JAL to the Airbus is a broken relationship, not a sales coup for Airbus. People change as Corporations change. If a board member cannot stand broken promises from Boeing, then it seeks people who will change its direction as a matter of principal, not a matter of what’s best for the operation. They secretly agree they can live with an A350 while turning the page on Boeing's unsolved 787. JAL failed to negotiate a 777 deal and have ceased supporting the 787 with a stiff upper lip. Instead, without warning it simply walked away leaving Boeing sales team to pick up the tab as it got on the Air-bus Transit after the Boeing diner. The first Boeing responders reacted by thinking it was something they failed to do while dining. But it became a glitchy, "that dog don't hunt no more" exercise, from the 787 project.

Here is JAL''s problem. Acting out in disappointment or anger at Boeing's mishap plague aircraft, will do more harm into the future for JAL, as its competitors will begin to receive preferred status, for a refined 787 that will seize the market right out from under JAL. Since JAL did not hang in there fully addressing the risks through the tough parts. They retreated when the end game of perfecting the 787 is close at hand. A mystifying reaction for all that is invested, even though Boeing counters the problems, they blinked.

Boeing will regroup and will suffer remorse about JAL. However it will refocus marketing in the Region with Singapore, China and Australia. These competitors may leave Japan Airlines on an "Island" for the region. If Airbus type aircraft cannot fatten operational margins with the A350, and instead diminish those very new found margins operating the 787, then anger or impatience will cost JAL. Message was received by Boeing and now the Icing campaign is received through JAL's cool bulletin on canceled routing and flights in regions where the icing threat is not likely. It means to me that JAL is not done yet slapping Boeing until it feels better about what its going to do in the near future. That is a full departure from Boeing, because some strong will and headstrong group has gained momentum in its decision making. Boeing can only take that group out to diner so many times and offer preferred status so many times before both JAL and Boeing see those meeting for what they are, a mere inconvenience. 

JAL took the risk as first customer with a new guy on the block, but are unwilling to see it through. It may be time to move on with better situations, no matter how many flowers Boeing comes to JAL's door, when they want to date other manufacturers, even if doing that is a really risky business! What internal memo rationalizes JAL's lambasting for every Boeing problem, it still remains a very safe airplane and both Boeing/GE and the FAA are doing its due diligence and correcting any problem with a; first priority and in a very timely manner. When Airbus lost flight 442 (A330) with a total hull loss, its customers stood by Airbus. That was no inconvenience, it was tragic!  What’s tragic here, is JAL's actions, and no confidence comments from deep space.

Its 2013 What's Under The Tree?

Its a new GE9X that will power the 777x 8-9 aircraft. Last year I wrote a Tree piece about  the folding wings, in a  777X format, making an introduction to the Blog world as some kind of writer of whimsical proportions. However, this is this year's rendition of Holiday trimmings and fantasy coming to life. Its the ostentatious GE9X made to order for the Gulf States. They want it, as in about 450, copies, and they will get it. I could not find a picture with enough wrapping paper applied so here it is on a Black Friday display floor.

So the Gulf States ordered a 777X purpose built aircraft complete with folding wings, special appliccations of plastic flight surfaces and this extra special GE9X to be produced as a super efficient, frost free jet engine This Tree ornament is the size of a UPS delivery van. So it will deliver on time with a consistancy of a Swiss Made watch.


The Brochure came with my engine gift under the tree.


If you could click on the GE bragging points I will enumerate a few  below.


Delivering bigger fuel-burn advantages

The GE9X will be the most fuel-efficient engine GE has ever produced on a per-pounds-of-thrust basis, designed to achieve significant fuel burn savings over its predecessor, including:

10%better SFC than the GE90-115B-powered 777-300ER.

5%better SFC than any other twin-aisle engine in 2020.

Jack Frost Hits The 787 Right In The GE Engine

and other Thanksgiving Turkey suffers.

• You mean GE didn't test the 1B engine in all conditions?
• Software is the answer for when and when not to blast the Ice out of the engine.
• Rolls Royce prepared for Jack Frost
• JAL Is "Quick Draw McGraw" again and punches on Boeing with a 787 grounding and grounding charges $$$. They really are hating on Boeing.
• The 777X proves to be a part of the Gulf State Strategy for world domination.
• 407 seats and 8,200 miles  is the ultimate Hub Buster
• 350  seats is "Brave Heart" Freeeeedom...!! for 9,200 miles.

 Those are this weeks turkey stuffers: Below are valid comments on the POINTS

I wonder why all that testing of GE engines in the heat, at high elevation and Northern Canada did not reveal an Icing problem during normal operations by flying over thunder storms? This seems like a corner was cut has bitten Boeing again with its engine supplier. I am sure GE has empirical data supporting all conditions and could have concluded statistically that this would not/never happen in optimal situations, and is  very rare situations if at all. It has become a frequent Turkey Stuffer.

Software can't fix everything, it can only assist  mechanical functions by activating those mechanics for regulating the Icing problem. It seems that GE is now taking a paradigm shift towards activating a solution it should have provided in the first place since it has a ready made solution within 72 hours of the first Icing problem report. Once again Boeing takes a hit because a supplier failed its due diligence on a known quantity.

Rolls Royce has not reported a similar condition with its engine regarding Icing. They must have done its work  before releasing the engine and will continue to fly on as GE sorts out its own mess hurting Boeing further with its customers like JAL.

Speaking of 787 Launch customer JAL who no longer wants to participate as a glitch crash dummy for the 787 program, they may as well refund Boeing for those preferred prices given them when they bought so many 787, since they are dropping out of the launch customer status with a snarky attitude. I know all new airplanes go through a shake-out period they will reveal everything wrong under normal repeated operations. JAL felt they had reached its limit of problems and drew a line in the proverbial sand and bought 31 A--350 in the face of being a "Boeing Exclusive Launch Leader" (BELL). I guess these are types of faulted relationships and faulted trust. It bothers me when it happens. Boeing may have crossed JAL's line in the sand, but JAL response is an unmitigated shame cast, when so much has been establish between the two, for so long, just to flip it off.

Boeing will try to mend fences but more from a position of strength as it opens up the 777X order book without Japan in mind. Airbus may breach into the orient market place, but Boeing has breached the Gulf States Market from Airbus. The A 380 is a Purpose Driven type for the Mid-East. The Mid East has space, sand and more airspace for the world. Its not that the mid-east is a destination, but has geographic position on the globe for joining east with west in a very efficient manner. Not having population clutter around it. The A380 lands or takes off with 500+ passengers, then directs fleets of 777X anywhere east or west. North or South in the world, with its "Special Purpose Built 777's. Whether its a 350 seat -8 or a 407 seat -9, it will service the A380 nicely coming in from LA X, London Heathrow or Australia, and then send those customers around the world elsewhere on the 777's. Its more about being a Super Hub than liking one aircraft manufacturer over the other. They want purpose built aircraft from anyone like Boeing or Airbus and they have deep pockets for those luxury aircraft when they need them. Enough said on that!

This a Turkey Day wrap as I am thinning out the LiftnDrag slices during the Holidays, and I too will bring another version of "What's Under The Tree", and a January Boeing Forecast for 2014, and other seasonal fun stuff. It will be difficult to up the entertainment, but I will try as I enjoy expressing my thoughts, sarcasm, and wit concerning Boeing. As gggoes for a beating of its arch competitor Airbus during the season. If I slip a nugget out that has not yet been reported upon, so be it!    

The Dubai Exhale

The Dubai Exhale:

Recently Boeing received orders for twenty-five 777X (Big Bodies or BB's) from Etihad and one hundred and fifty BB's from Emirates and another 50, in a Letter of Intent or (LOI) from Qatar.  The LOI is a sale, and because you can't tip-over this LOI apple cart or dump it, since Qatar would have to go Bankrupt or Boeing does not meet its proposed configuration successfully, becomes very unlikely. So count the 50 Qatar LOI as a purchase for conversations sake. All they have to do is drill a few more oil wells and the LOI pumps-up into a Qatar order. 

Having made that observation, then Boeing has about 259 such orders where they need a home for this order book in development or production. The IAM, Seattle WA, jug heads refused to work under Boeing's new terms offered. Boeing answers the IAM, by saying, "and your point is, IAM?" just after the IAM voted “No" on Boeing's proposal, it won't renegotiate, but will seek out people who want meaningful work somewhere near a Boeing property, even if it resides on some US high desert location.

Boeing has time for constructing a Lego like manufacturing plant under two years, as they did in Charleston, SC, (18 months).

Boeing would need a workforce of at least 5,000 on the floor and its supporting engineers for the project. Modular teams are the new way for pulling together projects. Design teams from Russia, Japan and the US meet 24 hours a day on super computers throwing Ideas on the screen, as if in the same building. Modular workforce makes unions not relevant when considering the thinking level of design world. 

The floor staff; as machinist, builders or other specialties can be assembled together with the latest processes and computer controlled manufacturing. The union workforce is greatly endangered by smarter and more accurate processes and tools, rather than the actual workers. Yes, there is a critical need for trained eyes and skilled inputs on assembly. 

However, the advancement of automation tooling and assembly is closing the gap on each reiteration of a model. The unions are becoming irrelevant by progress. When self-importance places a higher worth than its replacement in process, the workforce becomes endangered. Unions are still needed, but are not irreplaceable. That is what Boeing knows and is in position for executing an all new opportunity of controlling its own destiny without a traditional Union workforce.

They will contract a highly mobile and trainable work force that can operate an assembly procedure when a workforce maturity is obtained. This is the Union challenge. They must overcome and execute, "a how to make themselves relevant again effort". Boeing wants a covering for its company's back from labor strikes and disruption, as that union dog doesn't hunt anymore.

Labor has been excused from this 777X adventure, Boeing will build quickly and train a workforce simultaneously for operating its tooling, assembly process and manufacturing components. The union has abandon it purpose a long time ago and focused on getting more from Boeing and giving less from the workforce mind set. Hind-sight should have taken a Pyrrhic victory and voted yes and then started looking for the plan "B" for the next 8 years. Now they have nothing, tell your children how that works. A lot of talk is on Long Beach, Texas and Charleston. It is easy to speculate about those three regions as the 777X location benefactor.

Everett isn't over, but it’s on life support for its future as a 777 builder. Long Beach has United Auto workers to think about and Charleston presents a greater reliance on its yet unproven experiment even though Charleston grows closer to obtaining manufacturing chops reserved for Everett, WA. When Charleston puts five 787 out the door a month, builds barrel components, and the does design work with manufacturing implications. Then Everett loses relevancy at that time.

The Charleston site is just about too emerged as a reliable replacement for SPEEA and IAM. Everett will stay involved into the future for massive projects. Its involvement should be more ancillary than primary for its models. The 737 is bonded to Renton. The 747-8 is on life support, the 777-300ER has a final day. Well you look at the 767 with its outstanding orders and the tanker project, and you get the feeling the Union acted as a surrogate for all of the NW's future, even though they were just one faction not representing many hundreds of thousands of people being affected. Who Lost: The State of Washington, The IAM, Boeing's 3rd party partners. Not to mention the trickle-down effect on everything else in the region. The IAM was voting for everybody in Washington and now they will eventually look for work elsewhere. Good Luck Washington!

100 billion from Dubai is a lost order for the NW not Boeing. Even though there were 111 737 booked. The majority of the billions was a vote no for the NW by the IAM. Boeing was done with the IAM before the vote. They believed they paved the way for the IAM with Washington State cooperation. They said they were committed to Washington for the next 8 years if the IAM said yes.

Even though the contract would be a great sacrifice for the union workers, it is a greater sacrifice now facing those workers in finding any situation down the road. Some will be metal workers, others will work for small business, but they won't reside in an ever evolving business with world implications as they did with Boeing.  

If the Dream could not go beyond the Union contact, then the members didn't think beyond the contract offer. A great workforce can't be ignored, unless it focuses on the bad deal and then walks away. A vote yes and then broadcasting the reality of Boeing's objective, marches against Boeing's offer, has more power than the "no" and a walk away result. Family, community and friends come first and that sacrifice a union member makes for those values, by voting "yes" puts Boeing into an unwanted spotlight that Boeing has created and the world abhors. The workers could have stuck it to Boeing's image with a Yes nod and kept themselves for the people of Washington.

Post 787 Design Era

The 787 entered a brave new world in the aviation saga from Wright Brothers to the new 777X types, AKA 777-8 and 777-9.  What sticks out is two different configurations much like the auto industry conundrum of building a Tesla all electric or a Honda Hybrid. The 777X class has all plastic flight surfaces including its massive wings. There are some disadvantage's still remaining on the table for all plastic airplanes. The 737 is  too small at this time for plastic and the 747 and 777X is too big for all plastic skins, using barrel configurations.  The A350 uses panel with added weight found in its under lying support structure just because it uses more fasteners and ribbing for attaching panels while maintain structural integrity. It gains ground through plastic skin over aluminum skin.

Boeing does not want to go small with an all plastic post Max aircraft in 15 years since they have stated the cost in doing an all plastic 737 would not make the aircraft cost feasible for its gain in efficiency, they chose tricking out the 737 with all the internal advances, engine evolution, and aero design. This makes the MAX more relevant than the NEO. The Neo could have gone plastic panel version but didn't since the A350 has not reached the market place at this time.. That would be a big risk as demonstrated by Boeing's 787.

The Marines had it down over Seventy Years Ago with the Corsair. Now Boeing waves its Corsair over Dubai with A Patent on this 70 year old feature


However, Boeing is rapidly closing off its proof of concept glitching while in service. The overly complex 787 will live up to its over the top promise in two more years of service where a whole new genre of aircraft reaches that dream. The A350 falls short as does the Max and 777X types because they laid up short to make a chip shot on the design board. What is really intriguing is Boeing's hybrid approx for the MAX, the 747-8i and finally the 777X. The 747 did what it could with designed flight surfaces including the body by working in aluminum. Then went with a new engine performance package for power and fuel burn economy. A common theme ran throughout the aircraft matching the 787 in seating appointments and electronics. It added the feel of flying with 787 like commonalities. It uses computer like precision on optimizing the aircraft. Mission was accomplished with a beautiful new aircraft.

What to with the Max? All plastic is out because it does not give the performance return  for the investment cost of developing an all plastic single aisle aircraft. So Boeing said, let's do a 747 number on the Max. New engine performance, new engine placement on the wing and much more design work on the aluminum frame would make this aircraft fly like a 787, as much as possible giving it a remarkable efficiency improvement during operation, even down to the maintenance cost. Boeing improves it like it was 787 without the plastic body and wings. Its competitor went NEO on its metal frame and Boeing Maxed the 737 frame and its newly created performance. The 737 became a safe buy for its customers with a strong yield of improvements, flying like a 787 for crew and passengers without those windows.

This brings us to a grand finale of patch work advances placed on the 777 frame coming directly from the 787 play book. Boeing gleaned through the very best of 787 and placed it on the 777. Then they reviewed the best of the 777 and kept it. Yes they went with a slightly bigger window but not in the 787 class. They decided that all plastic body was another 8 years in the making and "went with what they do best". The engine guys are on a hot streak and Boeing implored "give us more fuel efficient heat"! So goes the 777 call out for those 787 wings that are so beautiful, and they fly as the best in the world. Boeing wants two of those for every aircraft. Boeing will go Swiss Army knife on those wings, so we can pass airport security by docking it in a 787 spot at the airport. We want the 787 wing to fold up in a pinch. "Corsair Cool, Huh" So goes the "List" and checking it twice before going on a road trip to Dubai. Boeing just got a Black Friday like order book in Dubai as the aviation world marveled at the response. Even some Sheiks were impressed as its county's leaders stepped up to the camera and beamed with pride. Boeing final guessed right with the help of its customers. "Build something we want", is the battle cry, and Boeing gave up delusion of grandeur with the 777 and came out with a marvel that will change the world more than the A380 or an A350. The 777 is rapidly becoming the Best of series or show for its customers.

• Plastic wings and wing box 787 era
• Plastic control surfaces  787 era
• 777 favorite things added from prior generation
• New technology Aluminum body, evolved and matured
• The GE engine advancements from 787 era
• 787 era commonalities, flies like a 787, flight bags. maintenance checks etc.

The favorite things category moves forward with confidence. The Mid Eastern delegation has stated, "no 787 like problems at launch". Boeing blinked, and said "okay, we can do that" So goes giving what customers want not what Boeing dreams up. The MAX, 777 and 747 is following the Airbus line of attack  of having no show stoppers during developement. Boeing is stealing from the Airbus play book as well.

The 787 will be a corner stone of everything possible as it tweaks out the 787 aircraft over the next two years, with the 787-9 and 787-10 in the tooling. Developmental risk becomes a chapter in Business school book, "Production Management 301". When the 787 problems go to text books then the 787 is etched in stone and can become that proven method for building airplanes in the future. Right now only the wings become the best of the best, and will show up sometime into the future on a Max or 747 (if in demand)and 777's. The engine advance can attach to any wing and  the electric storm remains a 787 electrical storm, until a "solid" solution updates the system as a whole. The 787 will fly safely in the meantime giving the dream a full workout to perfection. Just like the early internal combustion engines from the past have become something great in 2013 with its hybrid counterparts.