Boeing, a few years back had the 787 on the CAD screen at various locations throughout the world. Engineers from all over weighed in on the physics of this aircraft. What can the 787 do with its make-up and new engines configurations. The vote came in at least 15% fuel improvement. "Now lets go build it", said Boeing. "Our computer models tell us we can fly for 15% less fuel than our own best comparable model now flying. Its a winner!". Since that Eureka moment, even Leonardo da Vinci would be proud of, Boeing proceeded to build the 787 off the screen, testings, models and wind tunnel concepts. It took about 7 years to to get it off the ground. "Viola" it gained 21% fuel improvement in some cases but no lower than 15% in worst cases for fuel sipping improvement. Even though its been plague by the press reported with every little and big glitch, its an extremely safe aircraft because of its overbuilt glitch reporting systems. Glitches are not accidentally found by maintenance checks, but are more often found by purpose built system checking and reporting.
No other aircraft built to date has the the information about every little function working on board and how its performing. The detail of performance is so refined it becomes annoying with failed indicator reports, lights and bells. All the bells and whistles sound off whenever something isn't quite right, even if it turns out its a false indication of something not right. However, the other side of the two edge sward is the performance indication proves the the Boeing engineers were too cautious by saying a 15% percent fuel savings. It ranges from about 18%-22% depending on aircraft configuration and conditions. No too shabby of a prospect for airline customers on long legged routes. An aircraft taking off expends a lot of fuel compared to the rest of the trip. The longer the trip, the greater the fuel load weight it must burn and carry to go further. But the Average of 20% improvement in real time operations is phenomenal over the CAD idea of 15%.
This speaks well for the 777X program, and excites the customers if Boeing can replicate this lesson learned from all of Boeing's empirical data from the 787 project. Boeing has earned a place in the sales world of delivering on reliable information from the drawing board to the flight line. Boeing is claiming a 20% fuel improvement for fuel burn over similar current generation models with the 777X. How this compares with the A-350-1000 is a mystery, since that aircraft has not flown yet. That remains to be seen during the 777X development phase. The development phase will have continuous evolving engines from GE. The engine evolution will go forward right up until the first test model. Then go through a second evolution after test flights, and then have a PIP for new customer models. I get the picture the engines are in a continuous evolutionary mode. The body design can be refined on the CAD and with wind tunnel testing. Lessons learned come forward from the 787 wing building. The 777X's heavier aluminum body over the A350-1000 plastics will not be such a penalty as the flight surface efficiency nullifies a slightly heavier aircraft than the plastic A-350 version of similar size. Boeing will increase airplane volume for that slightly increased weight, maximizing aero dynamics and canceling heavier drag features. This will enhance fuel burn upward to 20% over current existing aircraft in operation today.
The 787 lesson for customers did not go unnoticed. Boeing said, from the drafting board they could get 15% better fuel efficiency on the 787, and then they got 20% better efficiency in real time operations. The 777 X is aiming for 20% better efficiency over existing 777 like models, and Boeing may get more by the time it actually delivers, when using the 787 example as a predictive confidence builder for its customers. That is what is stirring the aviation world at this time, is that Boeing proposes an aircraft that Airbus can't touch in the current building and development cycle. Boeing's computer modeling is slightly understated from the building learning curve and evolution of technology during the build phase. By the time 2020 comes along, the 777X will have squeezed a few more percentage points out of its current 20% model everybody is getting excited about. Japan Airlines has missed the development high ground that Boeing is perched on, While Airbus is stuck building an airplane it never believed in, when it announced it is going to copy Boeing by building an Airplane where Airbus stated, Boeing couldn't succeed with a plastic airplane in the first place. I hope this confuses somebody. ;<)
Boeing is to increase production of its workhorse 737 aircraft to 47 planes per month by 2017 from 38 now, a surprise move that analysts said boded well for the company, its suppliers and airlines.
Boeing had already announced plans to increase production to 42 per month in the first half of 2014, matching current output by rival Airbus of its competing A320 jet family.
With the new target, Boeing would enter territory that Airbus isn't attempting. The output, from the same footprint at Boeing's 737 factory in Renton, Washington, will not only boost Boeing's cash pile, it will give the company more delivery slots to sell to airlines who want new, fuel-efficient planes sooner.
"This is a big, bold, but very strategic move by Boeing," that follows recent competitive wins by Airbus that likely have been "more heavily price-driven than in the past," said Russell Solomon, an analyst at Moody's in New York.
He said Boeing can also be aggressive on price and now can talk to customers about new orders "with the very pointed message that they won't have to wait as long to get their greatly desired new equipment if they buy Boeing vs. the other guy."
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A bold move is part of a larger strategy of parry and thrust sward play with Airbus. Airbus is dimishing its customer A320 back orders at an alarming 42 a month pace, beating Boeing's thrust of 38 a month as of this current moment. Boeing would like the high ground in the single aisle market of 47 units per month, as stated in this article. What more could Boeing do by making this production disadvantage on Airbus? Airbus stole the march on Boeing by adding 2400 Neo orders to its book. When Boeing only has taken 1500 MAX orders since its offering of the Max. Having started over a year later, it lags the Airbus Back Log. So its waging that a 47 unit output will sell more single aisle, because you will get them sooner into customers arms in this race. Yeah, I'll call it the "Arms Race"***********************************************
Because of the high volume and relatively low production costs, the 737 and A320 are often seen as cash cows, and play a big role in funding development of larger and technically more challenging aircraft like the Boeing 787 Dreamliner or the Airbus A350.
Boeing's rate increase was more ambitious than some forecasts. Carter Copeland, analyst at Barclays in New York, said he had penciled in Boeing building 46 737s a month around 2018. "I definitely didn't expect an announcement on it so soon," he said.
Just last week, Boeing said it would lift production of its 787 wide-body jet to 12 per month by 2016 and 14 per month by 2020, up from a target of 10 a month by the end of 2013.
While Copeland said he didn't have major concerns about the 737 supply chain keeping up with higher rates, he said producing so many of the current 737s and the 737 MAX "would seem somewhat challenging on the surface."
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Challenging but necessary, the output of single aisle runs concurrently with these points of interest maintaining a shorter backlog in Boeing Just In Time (JIT)approach.- Increase cash flows
- Increased investment performance
- Customer delivery within a 5 year planning window
- Greater Customer opportunity to maintain a shorter wait when first ordering.
- 5 a month increase ='s 60 unit a year closer to delivery
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He added, "I'm sure the supply chain is quite pleased as the 737 is a profit leader for essentially everyone who's on it."
Boeing commercial planes vice president Beverly Wyse said in a statement that the higher rate would "lay a solid foundation as we bridge into production on the 737 MAX."
The company has 3,400 orders for 737 aircraft, including about 1,500 next-generation MAX models.
The 737 MAX will have new engines and other changes to make it about 14 percent more fuel efficient than current models.
Boeing said the first delivery of the 737 MAX is on track for the third quarter of 2017.
In contrast to the Boeing target, the chief executive of Airbus this week reiterated plans to hold its production rate of competing A320-family aircraft steady at 42 per month, saying the European company had some concerns about the fragility of the supply chain.
Rob Stallard, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said Boeing's move "might give Airbus reason to accelerate" its production beyond the 42 a month.
Airbus' output for narrow-body jets is based on an 11.5-month production calendar, implying average capacity for 483 aircraft like the single-aisle A320 a year.
Boeing is based on a 12 month production schedule, though the company traditionally closes for the week between Christmas and New Year.
Stallard said the new Boeing target was "incrementally positive" because speculation about rate increases in the latter half of the decade may had have "fully baked in the ramp, and suggests that the current up-cycle continues to have legs."
He added that any rate ramp carries risk.
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The JIT Arms Race has started and Boeing aims to win this race. Its new engines and news designs are placed on a winner, should propel it beyond its order books, as all empediments are removed. The backlog does have risks as well as having a thin order book at the front end. In all JIT formulates a production build up number, and this is where the magic occurs for the bottom line. That build-up works hand in hand with marketing. The sales teams needs to know a year in advance, what are its stated goals, and can it achieve the goals on time, in order to keep the Arms Race on target. Get those units in the customers arms when the sales team makes that pitch of "on time delivery in quanity".
The, "when do you want it question?", is just as important as the "how many do you want or need questions". Its hard to sell someone with a company five year plan in the vest pocket talking to Boeing marketing team about deliveries will start in 2021. Boeing hopes, that my friend is a NEO issue. Boeing would like to tune is sales program with customer knowledge. Where they will be ready to delivery on a customer's five year plan in numbers, and advancements, beyond its competitor whom is building the NEO.
The NEO is backed into a full order book Jam with this type of strategy as it has 2400 NEO at rest and not going anywhere soon. Boeing too, is trying to break out of that strangle hold by targeting production to solve the problem.
Having a 47 a month single aisle production capacity or delivery rate at peak periods, allows the marketing team more flexibilty for delivering promises it makes. Room that it requires, without it would box them into a... "well I don't know just yet, if we can get you your 20 Max's in the year 2020. Have you looked at our Gold care program Yet?" :>)
The build-up number for the order book, as an example: should have a two year production backlog which delivers a Just in time pace meeting customer planning goals for financing and route management, and it aalso migates risk from lack of back log for Boeing. This example would allow sales and demand some flexibilty with a 47 per month break neck production speed.
They have publically recoginized this arms race and are actively employing the troops to get single aisle NG's and Max's into the Boeing customer's arms from Renton, Washington's lakeside doors .
The, "when do you want it question?", is just as important as the "how many do you want or need questions". Its hard to sell someone with a company five year plan in the vest pocket talking to Boeing marketing team about deliveries will start in 2021. Boeing hopes, that my friend is a NEO issue. Boeing would like to tune is sales program with customer knowledge. Where they will be ready to delivery on a customer's five year plan in numbers, and advancements, beyond its competitor whom is building the NEO.
The NEO is backed into a full order book Jam with this type of strategy as it has 2400 NEO at rest and not going anywhere soon. Boeing too, is trying to break out of that strangle hold by targeting production to solve the problem.
Having a 47 a month single aisle production capacity or delivery rate at peak periods, allows the marketing team more flexibilty for delivering promises it makes. Room that it requires, without it would box them into a... "well I don't know just yet, if we can get you your 20 Max's in the year 2020. Have you looked at our Gold care program Yet?" :>)
The build-up number for the order book, as an example: should have a two year production backlog which delivers a Just in time pace meeting customer planning goals for financing and route management, and it aalso migates risk from lack of back log for Boeing. This example would allow sales and demand some flexibilty with a 47 per month break neck production speed.
They have publically recoginized this arms race and are actively employing the troops to get single aisle NG's and Max's into the Boeing customer's arms from Renton, Washington's lakeside doors .
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Airbus and Boeing both see demand for over USD$2 trillion worth of such aircraft over the next 20 years.