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Saturday, July 13, 2013

787 Ethiopian Fire Is Narrowing Focus

Investigators call Ethiopian Boeing 787 fire “serious incident” but no evidence of battery link


After consulting a plethora of reliable new sources concerning the the Ethiopian 787 Fire at London Heathrow Airport, I will try to sense the direction of this event:

  • Harmful Blow To Boeing's Long Standing Effort, of ascending past a new aircraft problem period.
  • Spot Fire intense, did not spread, and hull is saved.
  • Fire started after aircraft was parked at a stationary location.
  • Confidence from traveling public undermined.
  • Cause of fire will be determined sooner rather than later.
  • System analysis and system indicators may pinpoint causal spot location.
  • No more problems from 787, a requirement for its success of an aircraft on the ropes.
  • 787 downgraded from "will" to "may" succeed status.
  • Two Boeing catastrophic events in one week, The Asiana 777-200 and Ethiopian 787-8
Below is a Plus Read from the WSJ: 
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And after today's fire in London:

EUROPE BUSINESS NEWS Updated July 12, 2013, 5:00 p.m. ET
Boeing 787 Dreamliner Catches Fire in London
No Passengers on Jet at Heathrow Airport; Cause of Fire Not Yet Known
By CASSELL BRYAN-LOW, JON OSTROWER and DANIEL MICHAELS

Emergency vehicles outside an Ethiopian Airlines 787 that caught fire at Heathrow Airport on Friday. Far side of the plane was damaged.

An unoccupied Ethiopian Airlines 787 Dreamliner caught fire while parked at London's Heathrow Airport, reprising worries over the Boeing Co. flagship jet three months after it resolved battery problems that had grounded it worldwide.

Emergency crews were called about 4:30 p.m. local time on Friday and soon extinguished the blaze. No one was injured in the incident, which prompted airport authorities to halt flights for more than an hour at Heathrow, the world's busiest international airport. Broadcast images showed that the fire, which authorities said started inside the plane, burned through a portion of the carbon-fiber skin on the top of the jet near the tail.

Officials had yet to determine the cause of the fire Friday evening. There was no indication that it was directly related to the Dreamliner's lithium-ion batteries, which are housed farther toward the front of the plane. Overheating of those batteries triggered burning on two 787s in mid-January that caused regulators to ground the jetliner.

Boeing developed a system to contain fire risk at the batteries, which the Federal Aviation Administration approved, enabling flights to resume in late April. Boeing's business has since been soaring, with deliveries in the latest quarter hitting their highest number in 15 years, including 17 new 787s. Boeing has delivered a total of 68 Dreamliners to 13 airlines around the world.

The incident hit Boeing shares, which had risen by more than 40% this year through Thursday despite the battery problems, knocking them as much as 7.4% lower before ending the day down 4.7% at $101.87 in Friday trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Other airlines continued to fly their Dreamliners in the hours after the fire. A spokeswoman for United Continental Holdings Inc., which operates six 787s and is the only U.S. carrier to fly the plane, said it wouldn't speculated on the cause of Friday's fire "but will monitor the findings."

All Nippon Airways, a unit of ANA Holdings Inc. and the jet's largest operator, said its 20 787s are operating normally. A spokeswoman said the carrier was "still trying to figure out what happened" in the Heathrow incident.

The Dreamliner had been parked at Heathrow for roughly eight hours before the fire was detected, Ethiopian Airlines said. While attention is focused on the plane's systems, it is possible something else caused the blaze. Fires occur on parked planes about once every five years, said Paul Hayes, director of air safety at Ascend, a British aviation consulting firm. Causes have included short-circuits in lavatory electrical sockets, a rag left in a galley oven, and cigarettes. Mr. Hayes said several incidents were suspected to have started after a cleaner or ground worker furtively smoked on a parked plane and then failed to fully extinguish the cigarette.

In a statement released shortly after the incident, Boeing said it had "personnel on the ground at Heathrow and [we] are working to fully understand and address this." Ethiopian Airlines said "the cause of the incident is under investigation by all concerned."

The U.K. Air Accident Investigation Branch sent a team to investigate. The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board said it was sending an expert to the scene, and the Federal Aviation Administration said it would also send an official "in support of the NTSB."

As early reports and images of the fire streamed in, several industry and government safety experts said they were struck by its apparent intensity. The incident is likely to generate additional questions and discussion about the flame-resistant qualities of the composite materials that form most of the jet.

Television footage of the 787 at Heathrow showed damage to the top of the jet's body near the passenger doors at the rear of the 787. That area of the aircraft typically houses the crew rest compartment, but two people familiar with the jet's layout say that Ethiopian's 787's likely do not have this overhead bunk. The 787's twin lithium-ion batteries are installed below the floor in electrical bays near the nose and between the wings of the aircraft underneath the cabin, far from the damaged area visible in the footage.

The safety experts said that where the flames seemingly exited also isn't near the location of the auxiliary power unit or certain electrical panels that have been involved in previous onboard incidents. If the fire originated in any of those areas or the battery compartments—all located in the lower part of the fuselage—the flames either burned through the floor or crept up inside the skin of the 787. Emergency crews and investigators should be able to pinpoint the origin shortly, these experts said.

One person familiar with the preliminary information the airline conveyed to Boeing and its suppliers said there were no obvious patterns of battery problems or malfunctions on the Ethiopian 787.

Dreamliners also have suffered a spate of smaller technical glitches that have forced airline operators to delay and cancel numerous flights. Those types of issues aren't necessarily uncommon for a new jetliner like the Dreamliner, which first began carrying passengers in 2011. However, a fire aboard an aircraft is a considerably more serious event and is likely to be evaluated separately from the jet's teething issues.

In a separate incident on Friday, another 787 aircraft suffered problems Friday when a Thomson Airways flight was grounded because of "technical issues," a spokesman for the airline said. The flight had taken off from U.K.'s Manchester airport and was headed to Florida's Orlando Sanford International Airport, but had to return to Manchester "as a precautionary measure," the spokesman said.

The aircraft, which can carry some 290 passengers, was near capacity. There were no injuries and passengers disembarked. Engineers were inspecting the plane, the spokesman said.

United has been bedeviled by "several" flight cancellations due to a variety of issues involving the aircraft since the model was allowed to resume operations in late April—although the frequency of the problems has diminished recently, the United spokeswoman said. The latest was on Tuesday when a flight from London to Houston was scratched after pilots saw a message indicating that something was wrong with the plane. After mechanics checked and found the message was false, the crew had "timed out" and wasn't allowed to fly, the company said.

Ethiopian Airlines, one of Africa's oldest and fastest-growing carriers, was the first airline to reintroduce the 787 in late-April after the jet's 3½ month grounding. The airline took delivery of its first 787 in August 2012, and currently operates four of the long-haul aircraft in its fleet.

Robert Stallard, an analyst for RBC Capital Markets, said in a note after the fire that "any issues with the aircraft will likely face heightened scrutiny" given the battery problems. But he noted that during the 787's grounding, production remained on schedule and Boeing's shares held up. "We could see a similar situation this time around," he wrote, recommending investors buy shares on Friday's drop.

—Andy Pasztor, Marietta Cauchi and Susan Carey contributed to this article.
Write to Cassell Bryan-Low at cassell.bryan-low@wsj.com and Jon Ostrower at jon.ostrower@wsj.com

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Phew, that is too many cursory hints as to "what's up with that", when it comes to the 787 problems. I do think with so little information known,  only blanket assumptions can be stated, erroring on the modest side, until someone steps forward with a "Press Bull". With that being said, I would jump in with this comment with no backing of facts. Fire is the ultimate by-product of some non compliant incident, as today's aircraft manufacturers spend inordinate amount of resources preventing a fire event. Statistic show far and few between incidences, like one every five years from operations activities amongst passengers, maintenance, and systems failures that would cause a fire. This incident becomes disturbing, because the few 787's flying have had several fires already.

Statistically, this is probably a systems caused fire. Not good news, from the bridge too far team. The billion dollar question: Will the 787 become grounded on the rocks again until a resolution is installed, if it is a system problem, or will some maintenance guy get fired for a cigarette butt in the trash can? 

I don't see a Boeing PR Team yet on the Horizon of the press pages. I assume they are deeply imbedded at London Heathrow general area mopping up and putting out any press fires at this time. By next week-end there should be some sort of discovery statement issued forth, and Boeing will have a concise mea culpa with a full sward available if needed. Until then, it would be best to watch the wires on this incident because it is just as important as the exploding battery story last January. The 787 is bumping and grinding its way into History, as possibly the best airplane ever built at this time. A brutal way to get recognition and attention with world travelers. The new technology penalty is enforcing its will on the ground around the world, and not in the air.

Addendum Speculation: All Things 787 goes to the Board Game "Clue" With This Statement

"The aircraft fire is unrelated to the batteries. This will be confirmed tomorrow in a boeing press conference. Fire is strongly believed to be as a result of galley overheat - failure of coffee heater trip switch which was left on.Burnt out much of the galley and area above causing deep damage to aft bh and rudder/elevator system. Aircraft sadly a write off - unless pride of hull loss/p.r dictates repair even if economically un-viable."

Colonel Mustard killed "Miss Scarlet Hot" with  a coffee pot in the Galley". No rope, pipe, knife, candlestick or gun, just a hot pot.

Don't go to sleep on me yet, I have a story to tell from my youth. I once ran a small convenience store to put me through the University's Business School. I ran four coffee pot burners for people who suffered from sleep deprivation while studying for finals week in school.  Often was the case in multi tasked situations, the coffee pot negligence situation would occur, when customers stopped coming in at four in the morning just before the delivery trucks drivers started stopping in at 5:00 am.  What happens between 4:00 am to 5:00 am stays in the store. That is to say the last dredges would summarily burn up from neglect.  But I was there to smell it and take care of it. I could see that happening on an airplane in a galley if unattended for 8 hours. However, the galley should auto shut down when the last crew member checks out. Really sloppy operation if no one is assigned to shut down all appliances before the next crew comes on shift. Unless a maintenance crew member came on to service, brew a pot, and then left it on until it caught fire. A simple thing can cost the airlines, when its crews service crews or flight crews operate new appliances, like brewing and leaving the coffee pot unattended after a brief visit of cleaning and servicing on a parked aircraft during layover. Its new and why not enjoy the spoils of a new aircraft while on the job.

Friday, July 12, 2013

Donald Trump Proclaims: "You Are On Fire, 787" @ LHR!

Boeing 787 Dreamliner Catches Fire in London


Jon Ostrower and—Daniel Michaels, Andy Pasztor and Duncan Mavin contributed to this article above.

Please refer to Title Link for a complete preliminary report from the WSJ.

Once again the 787 has promulgated another fire incident report for the Head scratchers at London Heathrow Airport on an Ethiopian 787 parked empty. This "engine is off" event is difficult to report about, only speculative commentary is being accepted at this time by the world's press inferring in a continuous stream of relevance through talking about a battery from the last fire tying it to this fire. Fortunately, a recurring fire symptom happens most often on the 787, when it is on the ground and empty of passengers. The early facts will quickly suggest an area of investigation. Where on the 787 the fire happen, what happen, and when did it happen? Investigations don't drive the newspaper, but a vacuum of detail are awaiting the evening news. Once that vacuum is filled with the dirt, then a proper investigation and news headline can be written.  Right now its a stock market headline, not a passenger headline. What is disturbing is the recurrence of the word "fire", at one of the world's foremost airports, London Heathrow.


Image showing the fire damage to the Ethiopian 787 via Sky News
This is severe damage to to the CFRP structure above the crews rest quarters and galley area. The investigators have the hot spot to decipher.

Boeing is in need of a break, because they cannot manufacture any more headlines assisting the Dreamliner, without flying an aircraft that could be grounded very soon, and once again! Unless they (investigators) come up with a plausible cause for fire that could of happen on any aircraft parked at an airport. Boeing needs a third party cause for fire at London Heathrow, like a cigarette butt in the garbage, or a kitchen fire that lights up a galley or in the bathroom long after the customers unload. I don't think that will happen since the press is eager for headlines. Boeing you are guilty again by association of another fire on another 787. I hope and pray this does not become another Hindenburg catastrophe at some point in the future. Oh, Stay away from docking mast in New Jersey, "787"! Lessons have been learned, and are still being learned as the aircraft is used. One can speculate, but no one for certain knows what is going on with the 787 problems experienced by its customers. All anyone can sense is that Boeing needs to get its arms around the problems instead of the usual PR responses. 

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Everett is Up 5-2 over Charleston In The Early Innings

I know its summer and sounds like baseball is on the menu, but this is a real serious score and it may expand by world series time in October, with the Everett Sea Hawks currently schil lacking the Charleston Low Country Boys of summer by putting out 5 787 a month over charlestons 1.5 units a month in the early innings of production. It is a long season, and Everett has been doing this for a long time with a variety of wide body aircraft. They have the advantage of tens years rolling up production to this point where Charleston didn't even have a building a just a few short years ago. Not only that, Boeing came in and consolidated the fabrication of barrels and other parts from former Italian interest to save program continuity. Boeing now does those critical pieces in house, before handing it over the Low Country production team. Yes, Charleston was a AAA squad until September 15,2012.

Then  they entered the big leagues with an Air India halting delivery.  Promises were made, "that by next year, in the summer of 2013, they would be whipping out 3 units a months."  Much to the Charleston planning shagrin, the Battery blew up those aspirations  in short order, and had to change battle plans until the all clear from the FAA screamed. "Play Ball". The Everett team with its built-in infrastructure and resources sand bagged it, by keeping its three lines churning and filling the parking lot with engineless 787's at the airplane mall parking lot outside doors 40-24 and 40-26, until Paine Field had to be rezoned as a parking garage instead of an airport. The spigot is turned back on with its new battery cases and plan B technology, and Charleston finds itself down by a score of 5-2 units per months. I would correctly say 1.5 units a month from Charleston but that is scab picking.  Excuse me for saying scab picking, it was not intended to rile any angst in the late inning for any team. But picking scabs is not productive or polite in mixed company.

Finally, the board of directors, in its all wise  decision making, thought Charleston would wipe Everett Smug smile and put feet into the fire to infinity and beyond. However, all good plans need a disaster to instill humility to make any idea good. Everett is doing a first class effort, even sending some of best players to Charleston so they can make the Boeing Dream come true. The Board couldn't of planned it better if they tried.  The Everett A Team is still the A Team. The fire was not held under its feet, instead Charleston is still trying to show up at the Ball Park, and seeking to build a boatload of engineless airplanes like Everett, parked at its facilities.





Charleston Score Card Below

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Air New Zealand Stands In Line Waiting For The World Beater -9



Air New Zealand can't be thrilled by China Southern's invasion of 787-8's arriving in New Zealand very soon.  Boatloads (Airplane Loads) of Chinese visitors will make the New Zealand commerce cheer for more visitors, but not on a Air New Zealand 787-9. The Chinese 787-8 could carry up to 291 passengers as Thomson Air in Great britain has demonstrated, but won't as it has designed its seating plan addressing a cross section of customers needs through out its network of destinations and set it at 228.

New Zealand Air is in the process of having to watch every day over the next six months for its own 787-9 which will hold more customers and fly farther than the -8. Below is the 787 competition in the region. Southern and Hainan are both expanding its wings with the new 787 equipment.




The New Zealand-9 is now currently developing into a test copy for the -9 program in Everett, Wa.


China Southern and Hainan can only go so many places with its orders, New Zealand Air will focus efforts on replacing equipment and solidifying its market foot print. The Chinese will offer seasonal concentrations where NZA will focus on long legged repeated routes for year around travel.  Airbus hopes to squeeze in with its customers, which will make New Zealand retailers happy during peak travel seasons. By the time the A350 arrives it will be old news for Boeing. 

Monday, July 8, 2013

Thomson/TUI Airways Is Doing It For Everybody

A 787-8 can hold 291 passengers including 47 seats with extended seat pitch and 244 seats with respectable room. This one is for everybody who wants to see extra daylight year around on sunny beaches, in one shot off the airport runway, and one shot to land in paradise. No layovers, plane changing, and extra seat assignment on another airplane but just pure travel experience. Here is the preliminary sheet for the July 8th, flight to Florida and Cancun.

The seating Map for Everybody (291)


Put aboard an attractive British TV Star and fill the seats.

 Alesha Dixon Show how the 787 Works
Image result for alesha dixon 787 Cockpit


Ship's captain ... Dixon takes a seat in the Dreamliner cockpit

Read more
:

The Thomson Airways Dreamliner carries 291 passengers, with 47 in Premium Club class in a 2-3-2 configuration (A,C - D,E,F - G,J) with a 38” seat pitch - the same as most scheduled airlines' premium economy cabin.

Unless unavoidable, we would choose not to sit in any seat labelled E. Others to possibly avoid are seats 7 E and F, which look a little close to the toilet and will have little or no view from the windows. 

To see what we mean, click here.

All seats have individual nine-inch touch-screen Panasonic IFE systems offering eight films on each flight, seven TV channels, 10 music options and 10 games.
“The extended flying range of the Dreamliner also unlocks a host of new and exciting holiday options for our customers, increasing the range of long-haul destinations available with Thomson Airways to include Thailand, Mauritius and Puerto Vallarta,” MD Chris Browne said.

Thomson plans to operate its 787s from East Midlands, Glasgow, London Gatwick and Manchester airports, serving Orlando, Fla. and Cancun, Mexico. It is also adding Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic from summer 2014."


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Sunday, July 7, 2013

The 777-200 Has A Serious Episode (Important Update)

First of all my sympathies are for the passengers and crew who were on Asiana's flight 214, that crash landed in SFO this last weekend. Two people died, teenage young women from China. Many were injured from bruising to serious conditions, as in paralysis and internal injuries. With that in mind, this is a respectful and serious offering touching on what is known or unknown about the incident. No conclusion or blame can be assigned until a thorough investigation is completed and professionals studying this case summarises findings and recommendations of this incidence.



This summary report looks at what has been reported or quoted from the press reports and briefings. Most early reports indicate no mechanical issue arose on final approach. Here are some issues that will be answered at the end of the NTSB efforts to find the root cause of a mishap: There will be thousands of checks and hundreds of reports isolating the cause of this incident.

Nothing is off the table from air worthiness, to airplane operations by crew and airport.

My short list would include these general areas under examination:

  • Weather conditions and wind inputs on the aircraft, on a clear day.
  • Airport  reporting systems and control tower communications.
  • Pilot information onboard the aircraft before the tail strike.
  • Pilot performance during and at the end of the flight.
  • The Flight, final line of approach prior to impact.
  • Airspeed on final approach
  • Airframe worthiness and systems
  • Airplane weight at end of flight.

1st Update:  Pilot in training crashed the 777-200 on 43 hours of practice.

Credit: Airchive.com clink on link above.


"July 7 – 9:45PM EDT Update
Reuters is reporting that the pilot in charge during the Asian flight 214 landing was in training on the 777, with only 43 hours on the twin. It was his first 777 flight into SFO, but the pilot Lee Kang-Kook had 9,793 hours of flight experience, including on the 747 and into SFO. The co-pilot  during the landing had 3,220 hours of flight experience on the 777 and 12,387 hours of flight time. Also, Asiana’s CEO said on Saturday that he doesn’t believe the 777 suffered from mechanical failure, but didn’t speculate on whether crew error was to blame. More from Reuters here.
July 7 – 7:46PM EDT Update
“The New York Times” reports data collected by FlightAware suggested the plane was descending more than four times faster than normal shortly before it crashed. At 800 feet over San Francisco Bay, the plane was descending at 4,000 feet a minute. This is 5 times faster then the normal approach descent of 600 to 800 feet a minute at that altitude. Flight aware data indicated that at 100 feet above the water, the plane was descending at more than 270 feet a minute when it should have been slowing to a rate of a few feet per second. View the data from Flight Aware here."

The list would continue on until everything is examined on this aircraft, whether it was damaged or intact going through the countless check-off items. How did this heavy come down and was it below the line of approach over the water before impact?

The answer to that last question is emerging, even some suggesting the angle of descent was extremely steep and then flying low on final approach compared to other aircraft landing at SFO. The pilot at the controls revved  the motors just 1-1/2 seconds before tail strike, reacting cogently to the situation, as though the pilot was in a startled state with new information, his actions acknowledging he was flying too low and too slow right before impact. Could pilot depth perception been slighted on a long trip over the Pacific, and reliance on manual and visual information made the final approach risky? Since a system was down and not used at the airport for final approaches, using descent angle alignment, the pilot has to rely more on flying skills and acumen to land the aircraft rather than data. Everything is happening so fast at the runway height after flying so high and long as if in slow motion. A landing in real time is slower in approach but happening so much faster to the senses, than flying at 40,000 ft and 550 kts for 12 hours.

It seems to be a difficult situation not having additional information alerting the pilot that the aircraft descent is out of shape for landing. Striking the rock wall at sea level, a 1,000 feet short of usual skid marks for landing, is a definite sign pilot information was missing or perception was impaired.

Since no investigative reports are posted yet, and it would be foolish to post any conclusion at this time. By parsing through statements, I am hearing how well the structural aircraft did on the runway, how well the emergency team performed, but not word on what the pilots had to say. It isn't a good sign from the pilot perspective that a statement is missing. Only statements from passengers, who are the victims, and doctors or emergency people. The manufacturer, Boeing is smart to hit the mute button at this time, until solid evidence and findings are concluded. The pilots are told by HQ to keep mouths shut until the investigation works through.

Remember Captain "Sully", Miracle On The Hudson.  He was on every talk show after that crash. A hero America needed with the other stuff going on in the world at that time.  Not even a picture of the Asiana flight crew, other than a mention of their names, and how many thousands of hours that they have flown. Who was flying at the time of the crash? No name has come out only that he tried to abort the landing before crashing. If the pilot had died in this mishap we would have heard the name on day one. Asiana is taking a reclusive position as the investigation begins. I believe with the little information coming forth of flying too slow of target speed for landing and no mention of the pilot, the ending is not a good one for the company or the pilot at this point in time.



Points to ponder.

  • Who was flying? Not yet reported!
  • It has been documented: 214 was below target speed at rock wall and then striking the rocks, shearing the tail off just feet above the water, where it was short by a 1,000 feet  of the target landing spot on the runway!
  • Attempted aborted landing that failed in the last seconds before strike!
  • Observations of 777 coming in low, just off the water by passengers and various people on the ground!

Aviation is also finding what went right:
  • The aircraft structure, 
  • emergency response 
  • and flight crew passenger assistance.

Saturday, July 6, 2013

CH-47 Troop Withdrawal On The Side Of Mountain

Saturday Night At The Movies

The Clip of this troop extraction is not to be tried at home unless supervised by a professional. The CH-47 has been around awhile, but it is a heavy lift helicopter that can work off of sides of mountains in military situations.  This type of helicopter was used to extract Osama Bin Laden and information at his HQ in Pakistan. However, this was not that operation, but some other movement.


Extraction of Troops is not for faint of heart, since level ground is not always available.

Friday, July 5, 2013

The Arial Dog Fight Has Started With Boeing and Airbus

2nd Quarter numbers are out and Boeing flies out the door 306 copies for a mid year number.


Preliminary Score Card:






Mid Year 2013 Boeing Airbus
Mid Year Production Units 306 295
*Paris Air Show Sales 66 B 70  B
*Paris Airshow Units 442 466
Single Isle Production 218 233
Wide Body Units 88 62
* Does not represent a complete midyear number comparison.
This chart represents a snapshot and does not consider a like comparison 
for the past six months, which will be added once numbers are compiled.

What Does an aerial dogfight look like on super-eight  film?

 


After examining the war room chart this where the fight stands. Somewhere over the fish market in Seattle.



What Airbus does on its public pages is carefully crafting convoluted numerology on its charts. Always keeping a balance of total orders since the cows came home, making it difficult to interpolate actual numbers of what its doing year to date. They have at this time sold 9,000 + aircraft similar to the 737 line. It doesn't really tell you about trends, or changes to the line, just that it has taken a lot  of orders over the life of the program. Convolution allows sales teams to say just about anything about how things are really doing.  The trend line shows Boeing making a move increasing its production to out pace Airbus. It also lags airbus in the order book by about two dozen total units,. That can gradually change in the second half of the year as more -10's are firmed from the initial 110 787-10, were first announced at the airshow in Paris, but only about 50 are firmed up at this time. The remainder are in the process of becoming firm orders instead of MOU's. 

So the dogfight continues through various means of posturing, posing and presumption. The winner-take-all battle is far from over as it started way back 03' at the start of the plastic airplane wars. However, change is on the horizon.  Boeing will throw its big X gun into the fracas in late fall.  That will lever the dogfight making Airbus commit its hand in an all-out "all-in" position with its A-350 program. The entertainment will heighten when the 777-X comes to the dogfight. The widebody field will be littered with carcasses of torn up order books and paper floating around the room from past promises. I look forward to the next entertaining feature presentation at Dubai.  

Thursday, July 4, 2013

"Wait For It" or Will Success Will Be The End of "Us"

One Company's success is another Company's downfall, but what if the other company is your customer. That is Boeing's  conundrum.  Back in the day, a movie line during a "Laurel  and Hardy" was often quoted, "That's a fine fix you got us into Ollie", became a Hollywood punchline expressing falling into disaster, when intending so much. 

The piece is about the "fine fix" for the customers of manufacturers are in, when regarding purchasing the latest greatest airplane. The 787 is ten years into development, or 8 years of waiting, if a customer is found at the back of of the line, once the order is booked. If Boeing accepts your cash today on an order, an airline may wait probably 7-10 years out for delivery. Most Corporations plan in blocks of five year increments for strategic planning purposes. However, that wait time maybe fine for some airlines , but not for all.

Those who jump to the front of the line placed orders after ATO back in 2004-06, are just now receiving this year's 787 2013 deliveries. Boeing has booked 930 in total since 2004.


Order Analysis, Table I:  Boeing.com data


 2004 Orders Detail
717737747767777787Total
81521084252272

2005 Orders Detail
737747767777787Total
5504819153197967
 2006 Orders Detail
737747767777787Total
708541076100948

2007 Orders Detail
737747767777787Total
74620361102851197
2008 Orders Detail 
737747767777787Total
4562243959580
 2009 Orders Detail Order Resistance year
737747767777787Total
184573024250
2010 Orders Detail Order Resistance year
737747767777787Total
475137536590
2011 Orders Detail Delivery Starts
737747767777787Total
59474219445882
2012 Orders Detail Production Lowers Wait Time.
737747767777787Total
118472275501338

  2013 Orders Detail 1/2 Year -10 ATO
737747777787Total
67632982790


A total of 930 have accumulated for 787 orders through a 10 year period, where 67 are delivered. Boeing is now producing the 2005/2006 order book, benchmarking the backlog as 7 years in arrears for those last ordered on the -8's. Consider the 863 on books not delivered, and use a scale of 100 units a year production, it would make it 8.63 years if a customer orders today before the customer receives the 787 at its HQ's.

The customer does look at this book and also counsels with Boeing on what can be done to shorten the time Queue.

Airbus loves this position that Boeing finds itself in, and will do anything to get there as well, making it a full market saturation for production. Airbus has not delivered a customer A350 yet, and has another year or so of testing before it first delivers. Meanwhile it continues banking orders in its own long "wait for it" queue, which is now beginning to help Boeing.

Boeing has the high ground as long as productivity increases and its backlog reduces. Significant orders will trigger, once that undelivered number drops below 500, and Boeing can deliver 100 units a year. When the number drops below 500, the 787 backlog falls within most airlines five year strategic plans. Officially, when the production, price, product is locked, The Airplane War Is ON and Boeing has the waiting time advantage over airbus for some time to come. They must get to around 500-600 backlog before Airbus starts delivery. Boeing will deliver 100 787's for each year starting in 2014-16. Airbus "may" start delivery late 2014 or early 2015.

Boeing has the better airplane and will have the shorter wait time. In 2015 Boeing will no longer have a five year plan problem with a ten year wait time with its customers. Boeing's backlog will be within a relevant range of an airlines planning mechanisms, and success of the 787 is well measured by that time.Things change so fast in the airline business, a five year plan is a pipe dream sometimes. A ten year wait is a nightmare! Boeing will have achieved a shrinking of the "wait gap" by 2014. By 2015 Boeing will start to unshackle the big "Q" and take on substantial orders. Boeing will also see a glimmer of a breakeven profit sunrise on the 787.

The profit sun will rise in late 2017 on the 787 model. Reorders will begin again for fleet expansion as more than half the 787 currently on the books are flying. 


Airbus' A350 wait time is just now at parity with Boeing, except that Boeing is rapidly delivering product where Airbus is just entering the flying test phase. The more orders that Boeing delivers now, the more sales it will receive in the future. Right now timely delivery is Boeing's best salesman.

Airbus customers will remain Airbus customers until they physically start losing the market to Boeing Customers. Mixed fleets of brands will singularize once a solution is validated through competition. If Airbus' A350 cannot optimize better than the 787, mixed fleet companies have options in place to use its equipment in different competitive markets. American Airlines and United have tried to position themselves that way. In the reorder book wars it will be interesting what airline will reorder what after the A350 delivers.  

Boeing's success of a full order book hurts current year buyers, because every sale lengthens the wait for any customer. I am sure they have given every customer an opportunity to match its financing for every order that is currently in line 7-8 years out. Yes a company may shorten the wait, by ordering a -10, but that door is about closed. If you really need a -10 sometime in the future, then order it now and receive it sometime in the future.