The 787 Flies, I know, I can hear its Squawks Overhead

Squawk #1:
Air India is Goring its Ox! A bad choice of words for AI.  Airlines (ANA) are receiving up to 21% increased fuel economy over prior models.  Air India says only 17% and they want money for it. Next they will ask for a rebate because it can't fit household goods in the overhead luggage bins. Boeing prides itself in fuel economy and rightly so! Not every airline carrier operates its aircraft the same, or flies the same routes. Not only that, airlines may not maximize the aircraft. Air India is asking the "Boeing Sugar Daddy" for a refund, on lateness, "Done", on Battery Issue, "Done", and now fuel economy, well sounds like a personal problem, "not done".  What cooked numbers are they using. Are they comparing performance numbers with the 777-200, or the 767.  A good question. Are they comparing numbers with long legged  timely routes, or the airport circling type of routes, another good question? Frankfurt to India is a good test.  Puddle Jumping India during monsoons not a good measuring stick. The question remains, what are they doing to get a 17% number which is pretty incredible to begin with in the first place?

Boeing will ask that question to see what's cooking on the stove from accounting.  They will also note that ANA doesn't cook, but serves Sushi on flights. Air India should do what I do. I check the inflation pressure on my own car. I run long distance and avoid intown traffic, and I don't throttle the car in heavy traffic. On my last road trip I got 21 MPG, in town I get 14 mpg. I want my money back from Nissan when I drive in town with my XTerra.

If this is AI opening salvo  for more money, then raise the price of your tickets, and stop buying the 787. Go back to airplanes that receive 17% less fuel economy for the same ticket price. AI should look in the mirror first before commenting on Boeing's looks.

Squawk  #2:
A loose nut is a loose nut. It smoked an ANA electrical panel. Not battery problem, but a over publicized problem once again. Commonly called a squawk in the airline industry. Even though important it is not tied to an engineering fault, poor design or a part failure.  A loose nut on electrical wiring is a problem in my own house when I change a light switch out. Shame on the Boeing worker who didn't check his workmanship, before getting his four hours of sleep. Bad excuse, but something Boeing needs to do in the field, during this critical time. Have an extensive review of everything touched by Boeing, before signing off in the field, maybe missing. A field review should have caught an under torque nut in the panel, just like does in the factory. Now Boeing has cross threaded it PR team with another loose nut connecting to its robust fix.

The Resolution Of The Boeing 787 Dreamliner Battery Crisis

Hot Link Engineering Journals The 787 Battery Saga

Please read this summary as it captures high points of this story. Not a final word or a comprehensive analysis, but a solid recount of facts, as they unfolded during the history of the 787 until now.  Save this article  for your reference files.

777X Forms A Team

Everything starts at the top, and the top right now is organizing the most effective players with key abilities. The Boeing parts bin is not limited to well, just parts, but actual boots on the floor and generals that win battles. The starting line up is as follows:

Puget Sound Business Journal Source

Feldmann suggested the heat of the competition, and pricing pressures, in the memo.

“Our goal is to deliver the right capability on the right schedule – all tied to customer value,” he wrote. “The reputation of the 777 program and its continued market dominance are at stake.”

From the 787 program is Jess Trostle: Wings, the really the big show!

Overseer of design and procurement of the 777X’s new engines Siamak Masoudi,  who formerly was company lead for all propulsion systems.  This is the second really big show!

From the 737 Max program Feldmann is pulling... 

Paul Weaver; as director of supplier management;

Dennis Eng, as director of design and certification of the 777X’s interior; Can I spell commonalities amongst aircraft types. 

Brian Thorpe, who will be responsible for design/build integration, after a similar role with the 737 Max.

-------------------------------------------Article Clip Out-------------------------------------------------

The Feldmann memo is one of the first times Boeing has expressly confirmed there will be two models of the 777X. The smaller 777-8X may be the same size as the current 777-300ER, and will compete directly with the A350-1000. Meanwhile, the 777-9X will be about 50 seats larger, and in a class of its own.

A downside for Boeing will be the degree that the larger 777-9X will undermine the business case for the passenger version of the four-engine 747, because the two models are divided by a capacity difference of only 50 seats.

Boeing has argued that this difference is enough to maintain a competitive market sector, but the company on April 19 slowed 747-8 production from two monthly to 1.75, on slow market demand.

STEVE WILHELM covers manufacturing, aerospace and trade for the Puget Sound Business Journal. Phone: 206-876-5427 | Email: swilhelm@bizjournals.com | Twitter:stevewPSBJAERO Click here to sign up for the PSBJ Daily Update.

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The starting five are the best for the best effort in critical areas. This signals a serious charging frontal assault at Paris.

Qatar Airways has already signaled an earnest plea for launch customer status and suggests interest in 787- 9's as well. The signal cannot be mistaken, they want launch customer status on the 777X, by Paris. The "t's" haven't been crossed or "i's" dotted, but the champagne has already flowed into fine glasses. Paris should be exciting with the intensity of Al Baker leading the charge.

Straight From Peter Pan, "Here We Go!", X-47B Carrier Launch

US Navy launches first X-47B drone from aircraft carrier

Refer to earlier LiftnDrag article from LiftnDrag May 2, 2013

A page from the  "Art of War" has turned.  Its a Grumman product and its now for real.

The complete video for Carrier based take-off (George H Bush), and Land based landing,. Good views which will impress:

787 Returns On Investment Earth Wind and Fire Edition

The spurts and sputters of the 787 Program has had a much publicized history covering more than just fasteners, glue and plastic. It reminds me of the band Earth Wind and Fire: Click Fantasy on below link, as opens in a new window, window back to these lyrics when the song starts; then follow on the lyrics (or just watch the show in the new tab, it’s worth it).

Fantasy

"Every man has a placeIn his heart there's a spaceAnd the world can't erase his fantasiesTake a ride in the skyOn our ship, fantasizeAll your dreams will come true right away
And we will live togetherUntil the twelfth of neverOur voices will ring forever, as one
Every thought is a dreamRushing by in a streamBringing life to the kingdom of doingTake a ride in the skyOn our ship, fantasizeAll your dreams will come true miles away
Our voices will ring togetherUntil the twelfth of neverWe all will live love forever, as one
Come to see victoryIn a land called fantasyLoving life, a new degreeBring your mind to everlasting liberty
As one, come to see victoryIn a land called fantasyLoving life for you and meTo behold, to your soul is ecstasy
You will find other kindThat has been in search of youMany lives has brought you toRecognize, it's your life now in review
And as you stay for the playFantasy has in store for youA glowing light will see you throughIt's your day, shining dayAll your dreams come true
As you glide in your strideWith the wind as you fly awayGive a smile from your lips and sayI'm free, yes I'm free, now I'm on my way
Come to see victoryIn a land called fantasyLoving life for you and meTo behold, to your soul is ecstasy
You will find other kindThat has been in search of youMany lives has brought you to"
On May 20th United flies the 787 for revenue others are starting its engines for the sake of the bank book. A group of people have some kind of axe to grind a day late and a dollar short.
Ethiopian the first to fly: sang out
"Every thought is a dreamRushing by in a streamBringing life to the kingdom of doingTake a ride in the skyOn our ship, fantasizeAll your dreams will come true miles away"

"FlyersRights.org" and the "Aviation Consumer Action Project" are petitioning the FAA and the Department of Transportation (DOT) implement a two hour limit on how far the plane can fly from the nearest airport".
Relevancy sometimes is a pain to acquire so FlyerRights.org may spend some money on a lemon stand, and then go suck lemons for its moment of relevancy.
Yes we give them a verse too:
You will find other kindThat has been in search of youMany lives has brought you toRecognize, it's your life now in review
Japan and ANA will fly after it goes through its due diligence for its customers and officials. They will unleash the 787 in a robust gesture by sending off with: 
As you glide in your strideWith the wind as you fly awayGive a smile from your lips and sayI'm free, yes I'm free, now I'm on my way
That is the month June's verse of choice.
Then there is Qatar coming soon: Singing the same tune. However, it pauses to lever its position, as true as one would, or could. Dare I say: "A330"! Just because? Qatar keeps its high card in both games, because it can. Boeing sings back to Qatar,
"Every man has a placeIn his heart there's a spaceAnd the world can't erase his fantasiesTake a ride in the skyOn our ship, fantasizeAll your dreams will come true right away"

All Quiet On The Boeing Front Pre Paris Lull

News has settled into a routine that is no longer keeping one  hounding the press wires about everything from  737-Max to Scram Jet technology. No blended wing bodies or any kind of new item in play. This quiet is because of Paris. All the glad handing troops are loading travel bags, swag bags and laser pointers  into the travel kits. A piece of news just to keep the 747-8 in the discussion is this "Item" about the Cathay Pacific 747-8F . Yes there is that quiet program called Freighter Lines, that went into slumber during the great downturn of world economies. It may reemerge at Paris in the form of 747-8F orders.

Not many seats bolted in on these aircraft or meals served, but money is to be made hauling unglamorous freight around the world.  Boeing was smart to lay up with the 747-8F, which can and will serve the world ably. The companies that have its foot in the Boeing door, won't disappoint with the efficient and modern freighter.  The 747-8F case was made when traffic was down and few takers were in Boeing's sales room. The talking points from Boeing has never stopped since, and economic recovery is awakening global demand. Now is a good time to put a reservation in for this freighter, since the last few years have shown what this aircraft is capable of, and how risks and retirement of newfound issues are laid to rest.

The commercial passenger service model is overshadowed by its huge competitor, the A380.  When that market goes tilt on airport capacity, the 747-8 will be still around, and in production because of that freight card in play.  Boeing could sell another 150 to 350 of this aircraft over the next 10 years.  The next big Boeing Aircraft is just floating in design world for ten more years, aging to perfection as technologies mature and are refined for that design jump.

Seeing The Order Book Through Paris Sized Beer Goggles

Boeing has not reported much of late from its order book. I get the feeling they will pull a John Leahy special (ala Airbus), and announce solid sales for the 737 Max in a grand array of orders as seen through Boeing's beer goggles. What will be announced is a collected sum of orders representing months and years in the making, with an obligatory comment of, " Boeing only announces what our customers request during air shows." The reality is "Please let us announce your order through the Paris Air Show, and oh please and thank you. Plus, don't lose that sealed envelope I'm giving you as a bookmark for your notepad."

Enough of fantasy for the morning, back to speculating about sales.

The 737 Max and Friends (NG):

Some noise is out there leading up to the show:   Jet Airways to order 50 Boeing 737 Max planes: CAPA  

This is a sampler from today's press postings. Other blocks of 737 aircraft are circling for final approach at Le Bourget at this time. 

787-9's:

Even with 787 on the semi mend, from its teething woes, more orders will be forthcoming.  the -9's have started to roll and the 8's are on track to punch out at 7-10 a month. That alone makes me feel some new  sales announcements will stir some conversation. I would expect follow on orders from Boeing customers at the show or maybe a surprise order no one considered.  

The Big mystery is the 777X:

I would expect announcement of its Launch Customer(s) either one customer for each type of the 777x -8,-9 or one customer for both in one giant order. I also expect 150 orders of these aircraft at the show, when it hits the final tally board.

The great lady 747-800:

She still has a seat, even though it is considered a stop gap strategy; until the A380 settles her weight into select locations throughout the world. As freight increases, so does the 747-800 order book. Once the Airbus super Jumbo has maximized its footprint, the 747-800 will quietly slide into a jetway for the next 10 years with more orders. I don't believe Paris. this year, is for the Queen of the skies. She is getting ready for the home stretch run and the A380 well, is just the A380, where its own niche is closing soon, in the next two years. The 747-800 and the Airbus A380, both have its own niches. The market capacity will drive both its relative sales. 

If this were a horse race, The Max wins, 777X Places and 787 Shows. 

Design of engine for Boeing 737 Max completed

The topic is the Max 737 Engine design freeze from CFM.  The Puget Sound Business Journal brings this discussion to light. The Journal follows with the announcement, about the CFM 737 Max engine:

"CFM International engineers have locked in the design of the Boeing 737 Max engine, moving the aircraft upgrade a significant step toward reality. The completion of the engine design paves the way for configuration of the rest of the airplane."

"The May 2 design "freeze" of the LEAP-1B engine means engine manufacturer CFM International can now start developing and releasing the digital files, still referred to as “drawings,” that will guide milling machines in cutting engine parts.

CFM International is a joint venture between General Electric and Snecma, a French company.

The first 737 Max engine is to be assembled in early 2014, then tested and then certified over the next two years. Boeing’s 737 Max, a re-engined version of its current 737 “Next Generation” model, is to enter service in 2017. Boeing now has 1,235 orders for the 737 Max, making up 39 percent of the total 737 backlog."

May 2, 2013 is a benchmark date for the program because the engine sets the tone for everything tied to the power unit: from back-up systems, wing design, and operational capabilities. A serious Max fine tuning can now begin in engineering. After which testing, and then the full sized test aircraft.

All other design changes start in earnest, once the engine is confirmed at CFM. They will need to validate its power, fuel consumption and reliability. Proving within the fixed design parameters.  Those set parameters are now firm, triggering the start of everything it takes to build the Max. Testing will cause subtle changes within those limits, maximizing that the engine performs, according to the computer screen theory. Making a long process before it is set under the wing.

The immediate affected areas on the Max from Engine design freeze are:

• Position of engine on the wing, distance forward or back to the center of the aircraft gravity from setting the Max Engine power, weight and engine diameter. The items affect the power vs drag issues. Now Boeing must have decided on engine diameter and the mounted wing position.

• Nose gear length will now freeze affected by engine size specifications and and its gear housing requirements.

• Any electrical design changes can now occur post engine design freeze.

• All backup safety systems will conform to the CFM design freeze.

“In general, we’re trying to change as little as possible about the airplane,” Penning said, adding that the engine design freeze is “huge for our program.”

Boeing and CFM engineers have been traveling between the two companies during the development phase.

“We work hand in glove with all of the air frame customers, they know everything we’re doing,” Jewell said. “We share the results with Boeing, it informs what we do with the airplane.”

This answers a lot questions about the above bullet points, Boeing is freezing many of the loose ends along the way when CFM was comprising the CFM towards design freeze.  We know that an inch forward or an inch back for the engine on the wing affects airplane lift and drag performance. It was previously stated the landing gear is depending on the final engine configuration. As stated in this article, they have reduced a thousand pounds in the engine area. The 787 project was remise, when it gained a 180 pounds weight, implementing its stainless steel fire box on its battery system. Weight and the numbers of passenger seats are the main ingredients in the Max-Neo wars. This is an apple to apple war, not a metal to plastic war, found in the WB's.

Those two items directly affect performance.  Shaving off a thousand pounds off the engine area is a big thing in that war. The Max has shaved many other pounds off, over its predecessor, the NG.  The game afoot is the weight reducing without losing functionality. If in fact you increase its raw performance for an engine and reduce its weight you have won the daily double.  A better and lighter engine that is sitting on a test block, and then mounted onto a lighter more streamlined body, and then hooking it up with optimizing management system, bears the name, Max. The Design freeze on the engine represent those things just mentioned.

CFM's Max Engine Frozen on the Block, awaits a wing to fly.

That is how Boeing is stacking its performance numbers against the competition. Percent improvement (%) from the engine, another from body and wing design (%), and more from weight reduction (%), is how they claim a 17% fuel savings on the Max over its former models. Plus I haven't forgotten (%) improvement from Max systems management. The NG is just ahead of the A320 in the first place. Now the Max will challenge the Neo.  

The last trump card Boeing will play with all its new advanced technology will play out in 2030's on an all plastic super single aisle construct. 

Boeing Puts Its Money Where Its Plans Go: To Invest $1 Billion In South Carolina "To The MAX 737"

The year is 2015, and one more piece of the puzzle is inserted on Boeings aviation game board. A billion dollar plant in Charleston area will open next to the new 787 plant, employing more than 2,000 employees to the Max. Engineers will be assigned by existing engineering  mentors from the Northwest and additional aerospace engineers throughout the pool of available help for this process. The concern for the Renton production site is how much of the action on the 737 will remain for them in production.  There is a significant amount of work for Renton manufacturing where it needs to retire the Next Generation order book before the two plants assembly line is required for duo delivery slot from both The Max and the NG lines of 737.

Juggling of order books will be applied judiciously for optimal effect. A start up process for the Max would disrupt Renten Productivity on the NG backlog. A MAX start up in Charleston will allow Boeing to bring season veterans into a new factory and find out how to make this new technology aircraft without impedances applied on an existing factory floor. It will take from 2015 to 2017 before delivery production will start to crank-up from the new site at which time, Renton will be closer to end of the NG Order Book.

Tacoma News Tribune Starter News Piece 

From Boeing's own website here is the tale of the order Book

Unfilled Orders by Model		Through April 2013
Model Series	Orders	Deliveries	Unfilled
Total Unfilled Orders			4447
737
737-700	1310	1091	219
737-700BBJ	115	111	4
737-700C	17	15	2
737-800	4162	2867	1295
737-800A	40	23	17
737-800BBJ	21	18	3
737-900BBJ	7	6	1
737-900ER	528	166	362
737-MAX	1235	0	1235
Total Unfilled for 737			3138

Out of  7,435  737 orders taken there remains 3,138 planes to build.

Renton will produce everything down through the 737-900ER Box and then retire the NG backlog. This total is 1904 aircraft for non Max aircraft. What is not known is how many of these aircraft could be converted over to the Max line. But 1904 is sufficient enough number to keep Boeing Renton going for almost four years at 42 a month, or Maxing out production in the year 2017 where they will need to retool for the Max and split with Charleston on its delivery aircraft. By 2015, Charleston will be in its initial phase of finalizing the deal and will be receiving Renton team members for training, engineering and testing.  Secondly, how many more Max aircraft will there be on the order book by 2015 or by four years and how many NG will there be added to Renton's Work Orders. If renton receives another 200-300 NG in the next 4 years they will be ready to handle order backlog until 2018 closes. 2019 will be the year both facilities will be fighting for "King of The Mountain Honors" with Charleston having a definite head start.

Renton has flexibility after 2017:

• They may take in other Boeing programs that supplement Everett.
• Co-produce the MAX
• Establish a new niche for Boeing's X programs
• Have long, long talks with its Renton workforce.
• Transition in the works by 2020 for Renton. Company wide real estate is a premium.

Renton has a short narrow runway:

Wikipedia referance:

It has one runway designated 16/34 with an asphalt and concrete surface measuring 5,382 by 200 feet (1,640 x 61 m).^[1] The runway was resurfaced and realigned in August 2009; prior to this time, it was designated 15/33.^[4]

Renton is either trapped in a box or it it is a real opportunity to expand the smaller projects with military and specialty technology such as the X-48C project if it goes into production in 10 years or less. This will be a production site but it remains limited by nature to single isle and small aircraft. Charleston operation has only the sky for limiting aircraft types. Everett has fewer options due to expansion in place and other encroachments. But those concerns are remapped within the property with continuous plans for new projects.  The airport is owned by City of Renton and is important to its economy.  Cost of relocation would be a premium cost, but Boeing drops another billion into Charleston is a capital investment of great importance and commitment.  Boeing could not do that at Renton. The value added onto the Charleston best uses the region as Boeing's  new aerospace center.  The hand writing is on the wall due to space considerations of current aircraft in production and on the drawing board. Any decisions will not be based on sentiments or loyalty, but more about gaining an advantage from the ground up to meet the competition.

Renton is a valuable property, but will be best used in  different Boeing capacities as a unique aerospace center, once the "other" plant is operational, and the back log is caught up on the NG. Then Boeing should have another important plan ready for Renton.  Boeing isn't sinking another 1 billion into the Renton facility even though it upping its productivity to 42 units a month. It has to remove the NG backlog so Boeing can make more sales on the Max destined to the Charleston order book, which has the money and space that Renton facility cannot utilize.



Renton Airport top of picture, Boeing 737 NG Manufacturing Facilities Center and angling towards right top.

Boeing Making A Proprietary Shift

Boeing is beginning to seek a proprietary shift in its manufacturing. This shift will not be a wholesale cashing out of contractors, but a subtle shift towards controlling what Boeing can control well even at one part at a time where necessary.  The Boeing partners need not worry, but are partially liable for this shift. Boeing's duopoly with Airbus and another new kid on the block, Comac, hold some pressure on Boeing's quiet change of strategy of seeking proprietary solutions for new aircraft productions with key parts that Boeing can do. It is an old strategy of added value from its own production resources. The second strategy is having exclusive proprietary control over aerospace advancements where its competitors cannot access.

Case points:

Moving key 787  parts back to Boeing from contractors who under perform, or what Boeing can do by recapturing assurances and improving reliability for that part. The strategy of establishing design and parts production to Charleston, SC where it can, rather than letting another manufacturer handle other process is a signal that Boeing actively controls the parts flow before some condition from the outside could stall the program later.

Boeing South Carolina will design 737 MAX part

"Boeing spokeswoman Cris McHugh said the company is “moving more design work inside Boeing to strengthen our production system, protect our intellectual property and enhance our long-term competitiveness.”"

Boeing must make extreme provisions and exclusive rights over technology handed off to its suppliers. Some items are common place in the manufacturing world, and do not need special handling for its protection from competitors. But there are a group of technologies that require special handling for maintaining its proprietary advantage over the competitor.

The reasons of critical need for Boeing are as follows:

• Shared technology with a supplier must remain proprietary to Boeing.
• Quality of product must consistently meet a High standard.
• Delivery of product must meet Boeing standards for timeliness and in quantity.
• Competitor must not gain advantage from Boeing's specification and its application of that part.

If you look at Boeing's track record of refining supplier, parts, and reliability you see changes in its supply stream is continually improving, where it can improve the production environment. The more you can do inhouse manufacturing , is the more you can control in critical areas. However, the more you can rely on those out of house (manufacturing parts), the more you can apply your resources in better served areas where Boeing has expertise. 

So far Boeing has been burnt on several issues from its partners, by underperforming contractual supplier parts not meeting its promises. Boeing has to undergo remedial change in those areas by bringing some of the production back in house where it can.  

A tightening of the parts stream will continue in spurts as Boeing can analyse partnering performers and where Boeing can step-in and supply the part or fill the "gap". Currently, Boeing will stand by its design partners and suppliers. before ever shifting  back to a US suppliers or with Boeing itself. Its a matter of having the best production plan in place for its best parts.

The Charleston example of 737 engine nacelles parts, is something it can quickly do and is capable of on a regular basis. In house projects has room in South Carolina. Smaller parts are shippable around the world.  As the Boeing 787 matures, Boeing may take on more small bits from the general parts areas leaning towards the Carbon Fiber arena. It does not need to build engines, make wings, or become a battery supplier; but does need to fill in the small gaps by using its growing Charleston facility with engineering, and innovation in support of its partnering suppliers. Have a proprietary stamp on innovation will separate Boeing from its competitors, and it can have an affect when CFM and GE supplies the engines to Boeing, that no other competitor can use those types of Boeing exclusive innovations found with its partners, as with those stalwart engine makers. 

Japanese manufacturing is quickly becoming the world's leading CFRP wing maker. Boeing's wing design is world leading and the production is of extreme high quality, manufactured in Japan. The two of them together make the all new aircraft performance ahead of the pack.  Boeing is taking an interesting tack by setting design parameters for its world leading manufacturers to produce its proprietary systems that the competition can not borrow, copy or duplicate. Airbus may use the same manufacturer for braking systems or computer firmware, but it cannot duplicate Boeing's research on those items.

Boeing is not reeling back on its suppliers, and is not getting into the many faceted field of aerospace specialties, but it is beginning to fine tune its control over the vast field of manufacturers who are given a task of making a system or part without any control in place from Boeing.  The oversight and involvement level is dramatically increasing.  Boeing won't manufacture a landing gear, wing or engine. But they need a strong presence at the point of development for those various specialty makers when something goes wrong. They have been tightening this gap since it first proclaimed a strategy of shared investment, and risks with its suppliers, as the new way to build an airplane. It has now come back and reexamined the troubled progress of the 787. This has become the "engine" of Boeing's strategy adjustment.

To name a few well publicized failures:

• Fasteners
• Barrels 
• Delamination Issues
• Battery/Electrical

Perhaps not a complete list, but it makes the point that Boeing is going through a new phase, away from dependence on the earlier strategy of building airplanes out of a parts bin, and heading towards a more co-share of aircraft building.  If somebody does something quite well, and they have a long relationship in play, then the leash is out all the way. If someone is new at it, and claims it can do it best, then the leash gets very short with Boeing. Hence the fine tuning of its suppliers, and Boeing will jump in where it can, so it can make a difference.

That is a change I am seeing with this article at the top of the Blog relating to a  737 part, produced at Boeing's Charleston plant.