Sunday, June 14, 2015

The Paris Shuffle Is About To Start

The big dance may not have an order book gloat this year, but it will have intrigue that will shape the fortunes of many over the next few years. Boeing is arranging for more strategic wide body sales for its 787-10. Airbus is working its charm with its own A-350 couple, which is not yet a real family, as it tries for more A-350-1000's. The battle of the 10's is in the back room at Paris. By fall announcements will come for the the winner of this battle at Dubai. Paris is just a love affair gone torrid in 2015. No announced billions and billions for the consuming public, but a few raised eye brows will be forth coming as the whispers flood the flight-line.  Who did what to whom?

The Paris affair is captivating without a full story disclosed. Even the A-400 scandal dares shows up. All are hoping it won't crash on someones pavilion or static display. The usual suspects are already there. China's 777-300-ER, Vietnam's Air 787-9, and the Qatar Five Quintet will sing over Paris in A-350 5/5 time. The show will be great, but the back room will have greater consequence remaining unannounced, and in scandalous fashion.

Its a great press moment as they sell more speculative articles than news articles on a given day. News has become speculation. Its the "New Black" in journalism. Yellow is no longer interesting at the Paris dance-off. Airbus strategy is to look busy flying and flying over Paris, back and forth with the quintet. Boeing seeks to stun and make conversation with these few words, "Did You See That?!"

The 787-9 stood on its tail once more, and everyone standing got sick and yelled out just the same. "Oh! Awe!,The 787 rocks! It doesn't need no stinking five to fly-by. It just rocks!"

Hype, mystery, and scandal makes the show in 2015. Significant orders will come before the end of the year and after the show. Thrust is made for Emirates, and price is leveraged at the show for those desperate for stealing a headline. The duopoly paid to much good money to go home without bragging about whose best. After-all, isn't that what Paris is for, bragging about yourself no matter what common sense tells the audience. A little bit huckster and a little bit showman, is Paris Air Show. The loose change of orders will have to do.

Back to the backroom. I'll raise you 100 wide-bodies playing the queen of hearts "thrusting" on the Airbus duopoly of clubs, by Boeing. I'll see you and raise it to the"Max" bet. "Oh for Dubai it can't come fast enough for the big orders when "they" go all-in."