Sunday, March 1, 2015

787-8 Is The Cup Half Full In March 2015

It all began on September 25th 2011 when ANA received its first 787-8. Two more were delivered in 2011. Three 787-8's in four months.

2012 passed with Boeing getting its arms around production:
2013 showed the world it had a battery problem and it could build it regardless.
2014 diversified with the  787-9 as they delivered 104 787-8's and 10 787-9's

787-8's Delivered                   Total Backlog  467
2011      3                                Book Balance  464
2012:   47                                                         417
2013:   64                                                         348                                                                
2014:  104                                                        244
2015:   10                                                         234  48.8% delivered 51% backlogged

Total 228 delivered out of 467 is about 48% of total 787-8 backlog making it half the order book of 787-8's delivered in about 42 months from September 2011. Boeing will not deliver the glass half empty side in the same amount of time. It is switching over to a prominent 787-9 profile and a 787-10 is coming into the system making the 787-8 an also ran in production. Its numbers will slump down to maybe 50 a year in 2016. The 787-9 will pick-up the annual balance with about Seventy. Boeing will go to about 140 787 a year when the 787-10 starts delivery.

2017 full production should be as follows:

50-55 787-8's according to how module mixing and customer delivery preference is managed.
70-75 787-9's
20-25 787-10's

When on a full delivery schedule the backlog/production will look something like this if no more orders occur from today on any model.

787-8's at 50 a year now has a five year backlog
787-9 at 70 a year has about a 6 year back log
787-10 at 20 a year has about a seven year backlog from the time of its first delivery.

The 787-8 ordering is going to come back since the backlog has shrunk to 234.
The 787-9 will have a steady order appeal of about 50 every year forward.
The 787-10 could have a break-out year during 2015-2016 ordering period.

The 787-10's are not in final configuration until after it test flies. It may reach further than the early estimation of a 7,200 mile range. Boeing has now claimed 25% fuel improvement comparing it with prior generation similar class aircraft. It also has lost some more frame weight and gained more aerodynamic improvements. Boeing estimated conservatively with the 787 family of aircraft during design and computer modeling phase. The 787-8 smashed the conservative estimate of 15% fuel savings coming out of modeling by almost 5% as it flies at about 20% improvement. The 787-9 is exceeding expectations as well with its customers raving about the aircraft performance. What this does with my thinking is make me more confident the 787 family is no lie. Boeing is staying on script and not making claims off computer modeling until it flies. IF as a big if, the 787-10 can manage more than the 8.038 mile range already claimed (coming from the last research number on the 787-10), then orders flow in earnest as it will go to 95% of the world's long thin routes. The Boeing family of aircraft may make Airbus rethink its A350 strategy when the 777X flies for customers.