Friday, February 27, 2015

Boeing's 100 787 Order Book in 2015 Preview (update*)

It will be the 12 Days of Christmas Theme song playing all through 2015 as Boeing cleans up house on the 787 order book. Remember Qantas has 50 787-9 dangling for its corporate fit and finish. They are waiting for check list items occurring in the Qantas things-to-do book before we go gonzo and order those options.
  • Profitability on long range range routes Check. 
  • Operational change management completed when wages are settled for the long haul time period (not checked but close). 
  • Finally all inefficiencies identified are fixed (profitability is a good indicator those items are getting checked). 
So here is a brief dreamer 12 days of Christmas wish book headcount:
  • 2 Booked already in 2015
  • 50 Qantas 787-9 options leaning
  • 8 Teen Old Maids partnered (Ethiopian)
  • 2 Teen Old Maids  partnered (Air Austral)
  • 4 Tahiti Nui 787-9's almost booked
  • 3 ANA 787-10 order to be signed on.
  • 14 787-9s from Spain’s Air Europa 
Total in play = 83 787 orders $20 billion (US) estimated based on best information sales pricing

10 Terrible Teens 100 million each discounted         1    Billion
 2  already booked about 200 million each                   .5 Billion
68 787-9 at 250 million each                                    17    Billion
 3 787-10 about 350 million each                               1.4 Billion

Total dollars in play for noted purchases in place is about  $20 Billion US
Seventeen to go to go by Boeing sales teams. They could make it to 100 EOY 2015 with some or little effort. In fact they may exceed 100 787 ordered in 2015 by dozens or more.

  • Turkish Airlines Wants some wide bodies either from Boeing or Airbus.
  • Emirates ponders for more 787-10's or A350-900's. ( I'm betting on Boeing)

This could cinch up about 150 787's ordered for 2015.

Those are critical Boeing battles, which will tell investors an insightful story. A Boeing victory on those two customers will establish a Boeing bragging point over Airbus.

What is intriguing is the 8,055 mile number Boeing has hung out there for the 787-10 flight legs. This will turn some orders over to Boeing away from Airbus. It can make it to all the existing money routes, which is the number one questions from all its potential customers. Can it go to the Middle East or the Orient from here? "Yes it can!" Boeing answers.

Here are prior years 787 year order numbers:

2012 - 41
2013 -183
2014 - 65

Average = 96 per year booked during the last three years.