Monday, May 12, 2014

Thinking About The 787-10 and What It Can Do

Boeing almost has its 787-9 project in the rear view mirror. It has learned much during this model progression. You can take lessons learned from the 787-8 project and lean out those -8 stoppers in the 787-9 with a remarkable result of building the larger sibling with all the promise that Boeing made on the 787-8 in the beginning. It is realized at the end of the 787-9 progression. Not only will the 787-9 have all the kinks worked out before its first months in service, it will install advancements that the 787-8 will not have on its base configuration.  The 787-9 will have better air flow in the air. It will have a solid battery protection system, Boeing will build the 787-9 without hesitation or plant problems that would jeopardize Boeing's production like its former awkward shut downs on the factory floor.  The 787-9 will be a virtuoso performance repeated again by the 787-10 project. The roll out for the 787-10 for its customer has a date in 2018.

What does this mean? It means , the project maturity will guarantee its customers an incredible opportunity for a 330 seat aircraft that will bridge the world through routes with a seamless web of heavy lifting of customers. On the Pacific Rim, Trans Asiatic and the Trans Atlantic market and with the Middle East connected, it will make it difficult for Airbus since they don't have a continuity for its family of aircraft not matching Boeing. This, the 787-10, is an Ideal aircraft for Africa, as its range covers that Continent. It doesn't need 8,000 plus mile range that the 787-9 offers. Those flying lanes that are thin and long which the 787-9 is well suited holding up to 290 customers in three classes all the way.

What Boeing has accomplished during its "Late Period" is a consolidation of technology during those three years of regrouping the plan. Too much too soon was a complaint by its competitor from Airbus. They came out with the "Dumbed Down A350" family of aircraft. However, Boeing faked Airbus into this blunder when it struggle to hit one date on time with overly complex aircraft. Customers needed codling from Boeing to hang in there while Airbus kept up the chiding with Boeing customers with a mantra, "Ours will be somehow better".  Some customers bought the line and moved to the head of the Airbus line. The Boeing line was way long with a 3 year late  troubled program. Pretty scary stuff with Billions on the line, and possible financial disasters looming around the success or failure for the 787 program. Point well taken by the skittish customer. Point ignored by those in too deep for turning back on Boeing. Split orders came on the Horizon as Japan Airline balked and ordered some Airbus as a hedged against Boeing problems.

Like a Boeing teenager, those problems started clearing up on its face. No more pimples in 2014 except for cluster planning Charleston at the first of this year. The prom is coming for the 787. The 787 -10 is another slap in the face for Airbus as it out sells the A350-1000 easily. Airbus still has a substandard version of the 787 with its A350 family. The did one thing right with the A350-900 is that it sold a bunch to Wanna Be Airlines with its strongest selling point that customers would be closer to delivery by signing on during its initial sales surge.

The A350-800 floundered with no back order line. The A350-1000 didn't hit a home run. The A350-900 offered a short line to delivery and filled it.

This brings us to 2014 battle ground conditions. The famous Boeing and Airbus surge orders are over. Everybody with money has ordered, including Air India. The best scenario for either is the second phase of sales. It is period of time where customers that own and fly the 787 has a leg up on Airbus customers. Even Japan Airlines has a leg up even if its pride and honor were damaged by faulty battery and other mishaps from Boeing. Japan Airline is hoping for a better position later on with Boeing or Airbus. It means that Japan Airlines is hung up, as of late which way to go, and doesn't tolerate airplane mishaps in manufacturing. I say to Japan Airlines, "No Guts, No Glory". However, the 787-10 fits 95% of the world's routing, as the 787-9 will have 100% of the world routing. Those long thin traffic lanes will see 787-9 carrying 250 passenger anywhere in three comfortable seating classes. The 777X is now mentioned as the "Post 2020" aircraft in its own class called the "Difference Maker". This Difference Maker will cause major problems for Airbus in Asia to the Middle East. From Malaysia and Singapore throughout the region. Going east is a long stretch of Ocean to North America, and the other way, west,  to London Heathrow across a considerable land mass. The 787-10 will service everything in between in the long thin markets. The Boeing aircraft tool box has customer matchings for all the world routes, and it will preform better than what Airbus can match when considering the total aircraft family package.

Art Terms or Conditions:
  • Post 2020 "Excellence Period" -Vision Statement = 777X
  • "Difference Maker"-Mission Statement = The 777X
  • Pre 2020 "Late Period"- 787 Artistic Aberration
  • "Max Effort" Contemparary Impressionism 42 prints a month
  • "Second Surge Sales" Art Show

The second surge sales begins in 2015 as Boeing demonstrates the order book dynamics of a shorter wait line than Airbus for Carbon Fiber with advance technology aircraft. In 2015 it will build 120 787's a year Being first with customers and being first to gate has its perks.