Friday, May 30, 2014

May Three Month Moving Average 787 Line.

May Three Month Moving Average(3MMA) 787 Line. 

3MM average                      

Goal +/-                          03/2014    04/2014          Projecting      May (actual)  Delta 
Month Deliveries              10               8             10              10                     2   
3 M-M-avg                          6.0             7.33           9.33          8.33               2
Production Goal               10              10.             10               10                    0
Delivery Trend (+/- )       -4.0            -2.67                    -.67             -1.67                 2                
                                       *PM-Start          M.A.  P                               PM-End
*Progression Month

The 90 day segment of delivery, which smooths all bumps, surges and customer cash flows during production has arrived for May. It was projected in April that the over-all delivery schedule would end up close to ten month for ninety days. It is an Indicator of Boeing's Airplane parking lot for keeping pace with production. A good sign that bean counters were pushing the production doers of good deeds towards making significant headway towards its arbitrary goal of filling ten parking spaces a month on the flight-line.

This chart is the all important happenings as 2014 strives towards meeting its promise of 110 787's this year including interference from introduction of the 787-9. This is quite a feat introduction a model within the same production line and making delivery during test operations of undelivered 787-9 in that same test program. Resources are spent on such, an endeavor, yet production will meet its goal and receipts numbers will blossom from the flight-line. Its a cool thought if you are an investor. I am not saying there are not some remaining gremlins hiding out beyond Boeing's oversight, but that gate is nearly closed on mishaps in the field. The 98 % reliability margin is truly a promise realized for its customers as millions board the 787's in the next few years.  The 787 value starts during production and ends on customers bottom line. No one likes to share its secret for success as competitors would clone that secret for its own operation. However, the 787 is that 800 pound Gorilla sitting in the terminal and everybody notices it.

Boeing is sharing the news with all prospective customers about the virtues of the 787. Skittish customers are now listening.  Once again, I repeat the theme, that 2015 will be an order year for the 787 family of aircraft, replacing this years delivered slots at the back of the shortened line. The A350 has struggled as well as Boeing at the starting point. Those watchers and waiters of airline progress think Airbus is on pace except they fail to notice its been awhile since Airbus started on the A350. Boeing opened its big mouth in 2007 and couldn't and shouldn't deliver then. It took five years to fly it to customers. How long has it been for Airbus? Five years with a less formidable aircraft, however, they didn't brag at the onset of of the project so everything is normal for all to remark.

Production and delivery dynamics are is the continuum measures for solved problems and success full words spoken. people only look at results not promised announcements of hope and change. The Change has occurred and the results are coming in. It wasn't and isn't easy, but Boeing is in a better situation, towards its Break-even analysis event than it was last year at this time. I believe that 2017 is still the bench mark year for unit profitability when it flys its 500th 787 in late 2017 or early 2018. The 10 a month delivery will creep towards 12 a month delivery by 2016 for the full year.  Completing 150 builds and delivery by that time.  Charleston becomes a full production partner in 2015-2016 nearer its true production potential.

All I have to do is wait for two more deliveries in May and this chart above is valid! If not, oh well, this is a fun Blog about the 787 and other things Boeing.