Tuesday, August 6, 2013

The 787-10 Is Not About The A-350, Its About Check Mate

The 787-10 move on aviation's chess  board is about check mating the regional and high density route potential, cornering the market. It is known as -10 to followers of aviation's progressions. This -10  will serve all the potential high density regions of the world such as China, Malaysia, and India. The aircraft will pack in customers Like South West Airlines does in the United States cross country routes but only with a larger scale than what Southwest offers. Instead of 160 seats on the 737 Max, serving 320 million US citizens from coast to coast. Boeing intends to send over the most efficient, high capacity capacity aircraft it can to 1.4 billion people from coast to the Himalayas. I see the relevant correlation plainly as a scale-like enhancement in the planet`s most densely populated  areas of the world.

The -10 will move 340 passengers with work-man like efficiency, better than any other aircraft in the world. Plus seat them in unparalleled comfort and passenger advantages on the market serving those high density regions of the world. The up scaled efficiency is marked with MTOW tonnage adjusted to maximizing range with the right fuel weight for achieved range of flight within a customer's own airlines internal network of routes, like in the China market potential.

The -10 stretched is the -9, but with more length, and the fuel capacity of the -9. Therefore, it will fly 7,000 miles, and not the 8,500 miles of the -9. Since the -10 is a revenue hauler for higher density markets, it has a long legged range in most of the two isle world (this range covers 90% of the twin isle routes), instead of the all world -9.

What are those revenue markers? Markers are the designs for 323 passengers in three classes, where the -9 is designed for 290 in three classes, an airline exec will note, "we can fill more than 323 on a -10 for daily routes transcending China, and further out regions!

The 787-8, with Thompson Air, currently hauls 291 passenger across the ocean on its 787-8, that is generally rated for 240 passengers in 3 classes. However, it uses a two class model of Premium economy and Plus Economy with respective room of 45" (inch), and  38" seat pitch dynamics. Most airlines today are lucky to have 34" seat pitch dynamics in economy class as found on a conventional single isle aircraft.

Using the Thompson Airline Model for China or a Singapore Airline on a -10, that will fly 7,000 miles, is easy to seat passengers in a high density array with about 340 tickets punched at the gate. The -10 now becomes a super craft which is immensely up scaled from how a Max will be used in the 4,000 mile range markets, where the Max carries only about half the passenger seats that a China or Singapore customer requires. The -10 will face off with the A-350 9,s and 10's. How will that play out? Since neither aircraft has reached the market yet, there  is plenty of back room design tweaking going on at this stage. But, the big issue that will affect the customer market, is how much added weight is put on the A-350 for fuel storage cells, and fuel dead weight as its weight penalty? The A-350 wants to pack on the fuel in a competition of long legged routes and will try to push the fuel economy envelop at the same time, in order to meet or exceed the Boeing product for the 787 family of aircraft.

Meeting or equaling 787 economics, retains loyal customers for Airbus. Beating Boeing with higher fuel economy per seat, will steal from Boeing's base of customers. On the other hand if Boeing holds the line on operational efficiency it will win the day with its 787 campaign. The unknown Knight riding the gallant stead has yet to appear in this "B" movie classic. That is the 777-X! We have all heard about this knight in shinning armor, but we will not know if it can win the joust that will change the airplane wars. It will though do just that, if it lives up to expectations, and squash the whole Airbus scheme of world dominance as an air framer. Putting the airline wars in a quasi fantasy and realistic point as in a "metaphor speak", is very appropriate dimension of reality.

The unknown night will joust this fall on the Arabian peninsula. The reality, can Boeing pull off a victory and unlock  the 787 from Airbus' hold over Europe? The answer is in the final chapter of the 787 saga. The ending has not been disclosed, so I will leave any reader with this thought. If boasting counts in the game of Horse Shoes and Grenades, meaning getting close to a ringer with its verbal grenades, Boeing will win the game of Horseshoes. In summary, the 777-X is just as important to the 787 program as its execution of the the 787 build plans. If it all comes together as spoken by Boeing (boasts), then Airbus will have made an "in vain" attempt in knocking that "Knight" off the horse, and will not or cannot stop the 787 checkmate.