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Thursday, September 28, 2017

Ryan Air Re-positions Vacations Like A Cruise Ship's Makes Seasonal Changes

A seasonal adjustment not caused by climate but by under planning has caused Ryan Air to cancel flights through March 2018. This affects about 400,000 of its passenger customers over the same period of time. Since Ryan Air has captured a market for 129 million travelers in its vast airline system, the impact affects only a small percentage of its customers over the next six months. The margin of customers inconvenienced is amounts to  .62% of its customer base for the next six months or about 99.4% of its passenger will not be affected.

The problem stems from scheduling adequate  vacation time slots for it pilots and crews. The perfect work storm has occured and there is no way out of the fix until it sorts out vacation schedules while at the same time expanding new staffing resources. The flight cancellations directly affects Ryan Air's revenue stream for those estimated 400,000 customers who will not travel with the airline during the next six months. This lost revenue stream has altered several of Ryan Air's aspirations for fleet expansion and further canceling a merger with Alitalia from Italy.

The set back should be a one -off problem during 2017-2018 flying season. Ryan Air expects to resume its full-on growth program by 2019 as it finds more pilots, crews and air frames for its growth. Having a better control for its vacation scheduling by March of 2018 should right its operational ship.

Ryan Air is no longer considered a small player in the airline business as any kind of operational mishaps of this nature tend to spell big financial impacts, if not addressed ahead of time.  

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

F-35 Concurrency Leaves 108 of Its Type Behind

There was a theory called "concurrency". The methodology for concurrency is to make an initial copy and then return back to that copy for updating it into some futuristic version from its origin. The F-35 is that prototypical attempt. The concurrent theory puts versions 2F, 3i and 3F to the test. Each reiteration of software is a concurrent up grade of the aircraft where the maker can go back and upgrade the aircraft within its own configuration. The other aspect of concurrency allows the maker to change firm upgrades when innovation solves a problem such as in the case of ejector seat malfunctioning and it can go back concurrently with new ejector seats and replace the faulty ones in all previously delivered aircraft. Concurrency is depended upon as the F-35 evolves through its development phases, but now a problem arises with the F-35.

The initial F-35 delivered are so far away from being concurrent with the new F-35's coming off the assembly line it makes the first 108 F-35's obsolete as a war fighter and it cannot be mustered for combat without billions of dollars spent renovating those first F-35 already fielded. The early 108 F-35's are a pain to make it concurrent as a fully capable war fighter. The military is considering making the early copies as training aircraft since the Air Force Navy and Marines have no dedicated 5th generation training fighters in its inventory, as all those currently flying should be marked for full combat capability as soon as the F-35 development phase ends. 

A decision would be made by the time Full Rate Production begins. If Lockheed can produce 140 F-35's a year at a full rate and at lower cost it would be a matter of months before every of the 108 early builds could be replaced with fully capable war fighters. The military does need training aircraft and the most expensive F-35's are all those early builds which may be turned into 5th generation training aircraft it sorely needs. Concurrency works after the development phase is completed.

The bottom line, is concurrency has put the military into a fine fix as Ollie from Laurel and Hardy would say. It just so happens that Tax Payer money is expendable.

Monday, September 25, 2017

Paper On The Ground Says Boeing Sets UP 797 Office


Boeing 797 Office is phase one of setting up.
Image result for Portable office on the street

A memo was discovered saying Mark Jenks will lead the 797 program forward, but that's not all. The former 787 program chief will also lead a group towards making a way forward for new designs and innovations for its aircraft making. My own take.

Reference: Rueters news


The slip of information is not a confirmation for a 797 program commitment or announcement for a the next "airshow debut", but it does validate more money is being spent for office space having big blue doors with 797 stenciled on it.

The Paris airshow 2017 offered a "797" teaser and it may announce as early as 2019 as a follow through at the next Paris Airshow and right in front of the Airbus Pavilion😜

Even though it was earlier stated by Winging It, (an 797 announcement would come at Farnborough 2020), this latest on-the-floor memo indicates a ramp-up for the next Paris extravaganza in 2019. Boeing is further along than anticipated with its 797 concept.

Ever Wonder What a Millennial Is?

I keep hearing the word millennial every day on the news or on tabloids its the buzz word to make you pay attention without a proper explanation for who or what a millennial is. Here is the official breakout of generational references from the website:  http://genhq.com/generational_birth_years/

  • Gen Z, born 1996 to present
  • Millennials, born 1977 to 1995
  • Gen X, born 1965 to 1976
  • Baby Boomers, born 1946 to 1964
  • Traditionalists, born 1945 and earlier
You are a millennial if you are the age of 28-40 during 2017. Anything above 40 years of age is probably a GenX. I am a baby boomer at age 65.

CDB Leasing Says "Book'm Dano" Boeing's Momentum Order Update(MOU)

CDB Leasing, a Chinese airplane leasing company just signed for 60 Boeing Aircraft for about $8.2
Billion at list price.


  • 42 Max 8's
  • 10 Max 10's
  • 8 787-9's


The sixty ordered closes off a long negotiation period since the Paris Airshow June 2017. CDB signed its MOU/intent with Boeing at the Airshow. Boeing has not posted this transaction to its order book until its weekly updates are posted. A firming of a MOU is a final step such as the Turkish Airline deal for 40 787-9's were is at the MOU stage and the MOU deal would not be booked until that MOU/intent was finalized with Boeing. There remains a doubtful Malaysia Air intent announced at the While House last week for purchasing 8 787-9's, but it will become finalized in due time. Boeing is building up a back-log of 787 MOU's, for which some or all could be finalized by year's end and then could be reflected by customer name at its discretion.


Sunday, September 24, 2017

787 Book To Bill Graphic

Since 2004 Boeing has booked 787 orders but started delivering in 2011. each year an ideal number is for every unit booked a unit is delivered, thus indicating a 1-1 ratio of Booked to Bill. A graph  below shows this relationship. The Blue line is booked (orders) and the orange line is billed (delivered )787. The goal for 2017 is to have the two lines intersect at year's end thus equaling a Book To Bill ratio of one.

The graph below below is an example of  Boeing's goal over the last six years since its first delivery was made in 2011. The Book to Bill ratio intersected in 2012 and 2013 during  production start-up period. However, in 2017 with the year incomplete there is a possibility the lines will intersect when accounting is done with Boeing's numbers.


Saturday, September 23, 2017

A Sunday Read: 797 A Blended Wing Body??

Once in a while the blog features a Sunday read for those who like sipping coffee and Sunday morning toast. The reading assignment for slackers below has a link included out of courtesy.

Link to source 

"Dear Mr. Berko: In January 2010, you advised me to invest $10,000 in Boeing. I bought 157 shares at $63. Thanks to you, I’ve quadrupled my money, and the $5.68 dividend, which has increased every year, is a 9 percent yield on my cost. Thank you from my heart. Now I wonder whether I should sell Boeing because Airbus is leading the market with its A380 jumbo jet, which seats 615 people. According to my stockbroker, Airbus has advance orders for 200 of these planes. He thinks this will “crush” Boeing’s future revenues, earnings and dividends. He says these huge jumbo jets will be the “workhorse planes of the future.” He wants me to sell Boeing and lock in a $29,800 profit because he believes that Boeing will reduce its dividend and trade much lower next year. -- GB, Port Charlotte, Fla.
Dear GB: I’d like to take the credit for that prodigiously profitable purchase. But I’m certain as sin I wasn’t responsible for that Boeing (BA-$253) recommendation in 2010. I wasn’t an enthusiast until April 2012, when I met a minor vice president from BA who acted as if he were a major big shot. He looked like Dr. Strangelove, and I disliked him immediately. But he figuratively kicked me in the bum for being a troglodyte and failing to recognize that war is a “vastly more lucrative business than building 707s, 717s, 727s, 737s, 747s, 757s, 767s, 777s and 787s for peaceniks.” He was so serious that I wanted to ask about what will happen when all the 7s are used up. He told me that stockholders and most of BA’s 150,000 employees cheer when the political, ethnic and cultural differences between nations cause conflict, bloodshed, destruction and death. “God bless these differences,” Strangelove commented, “because revenues from fighter jets, helicopters, guided weapons systems and electro-optical systems account for nearly half of my company’s revenues.” He said that military business is more profitable than civilian business because contracts are competitive in the latter. He bragged that BA has dozens of congressmen on its payroll and then winked at me.
However, BA is no slouch in the jumbo jet business and won’t take a back seat to Airbus, which couldn’t make a dollar if it owned a printing press. Boeing has kept quiet about its new 797, which can fly 12,000 miles at 660 mph. It can carry enough food to feed 1,000 passengers and enough fuel to take them plus several thousand pieces of luggage to their destination. The 797 has aisles that are as narrow as an arrow and seats that are about the size of a child’s booster seat. But BA’s blended wing body, with no clear dividing line between the wings and the fuselage, is a significant advantage over the older, tubular-style structure. This increases the lift-to-drag ratio by 50 percent, resulting in a weight reduction of 25 percent. This makes the 797 33 percent more fuel-efficient than the Airbus A380, which has a top speed of just 634 mph. But bigger isn’t better! You need to be at the airport hours before departure. And after reaching your destination, it may take longer to deplane and retrieve your luggage than the length of time you spent in flight. BA’s giant jumbo should be ready for takeoff by 2021 and is so vastly superior to the A380 that Airbus may have to lay off a significant portion of its 73,000-person workforce.
Boeing expects 2017 revenues of $91.4 billion and earnings of $10.20 a share. In 2018, an expected increase in military contracts may push revenues to $94 billion, and with strong net profit margins of 6.7 percent, earnings may grow to be above the $11 level. Therefore, many on Wall Street expect that today’s $5.68 dividend will be raised to $6.50 next year. Though BA has risen sharply and perhaps a bit too fast this year, please keep this stock. Over 25 analysts agree. BA continues to be a good long-term investment, and I’d not be surprised if the board authorized a 3-for-1 split. The most recent BA split (2-for-1) was in June 1997."

Boeing’s When-iffy Year


Boeing has captured world aviation attention with the recent announcements. Orders for its 787 are mentioned in a barrage of announcements. Forty here eight there and another four for good measure are recent topics. In all it amounts to 52 787’s mentioned as orders coming from Turkish Airlines, Malaysia’s MAB, and Japan Airlines respectively.  

These are airlines no one was talking about until this last week. Those announcement are more smoke than fire but it indicates a fire is smoldering in the wide body world of orders. The pace will quicken at year’s end where Boeing is keen to mark its order book up with confirmed orders. It almost guarantees a plus 100 wide body order year depending on when paper-work is signed over to Boeing. Counting the current 82 gross orders and adding 52 more makes for 134 gross ordered 787’s. Becoming one of Boeing’s best 787 order years since counting started for the model.

Boeing 787 O/D Program Recap YTD 2017
Year
Yearly Net Orders
Annual Delivery
Back-Log
2004
52
0
52
2005
197
0
249
2006
99
0
348
2007
269
0
617
2008
59
0
676
2009
24
0
700
2010
25
0
725
2011
45
3
767
2012
42
47
762
2013
181
64
879
2014
50
114
815
2015
99
135
779
2016
58
137
700
2017
78
98
680
Total
1278
590
688

The net total for 2017 stands at 78 units having 82 gross orders. Adding another 52 units by year's end would put 2017 in great order year company. Even if all the recently announced 787 orders were not finalized by year’s end, it would be a very solid 787 year with a standing net 78 count.

The top six order years since 2004:

  • 2005 -197
  • 2006 -99
  • 2007 -269
  • 2013 -181
  • 2015 -99
  • 2017-(134?)


If 2017 finalizes its pending order intents of 52, then a 134 order year would become Boeing’s fourth largest order year since the program’s inception. But having only 78 orders ranks it as the sixth most productive order year. It was a Winging It's estimation earlier this year, Boeing would have 50 orders coming in from all the various customers.

As Noted by Winging IT March 18, 2017, “Boeing should go plus fifty 787 orders in 2017”.

At that time of year Boeing only booked seven of its 787’s and it now stands at seventy-eight.

Having a plus 130 order ceiling is a possibility and will not impede its 2018 order book. The potential has been identified by Boeing and 2018 too may go beyond a 100 unit order year for the 787. This is why Boeing is going for a 14 a month pace by 2019 because its forecasting and own information is bearing out that is was correct decision.

The A-350-1100 Must Beat The New 777X Proposals In order to Fly.

Qatar recently indicated it would consider an A-350-1100 if it would beat the new 777X proposition. Looking at the statement suggests Airbus would have to build a super efficient twin engine behemoth. 

There are the normal metrics such as seat mile efficiency, Big body pricing, and capacity for the airplane propose. Currently, Airbus has several models in this arena as shown below in the bullet points. Customer's final configuration requirements will affect both seats and range capability.


  • A-350-900  325 seats, range- 8,100 miles
  • A-350-1000 366 seats,  range 8,000 miles
  • 777-8  350 seats, range 8,700 miles est.
  • 777-9  400 seats, range 7,700 est.

If both are proposing unannounced models then that proposal targets where the final battle will occur and what Airbus must do in order to beat is the theoretical 777-10X. It's a thin market for the 777-10X capability based on seats alone. The range becomes a big item for both makers for these ultimate types.


  • 777-10X  450 seats, range unannounced
  • Wing Length for 7778X & 7779X(unfolded) 235 ft
  • A-350-1100X must jump-up with 80-100 seats from its A-350-1000 standard 366 seating.
  • Wing length for current A-350's is 212.4 feet
Boeing won't announce a 777 10X until its proof of concept (777-9X) goes to market in 2020. The answer with this competition comes as several more airshows pass through without an ultimate twin engine announcement. 

Expect Boeing to go for a new GE engine performance for its 777-10X, before selling the concept to customers. The thin market for super-big aircraft with long range is only for several hundred aircraft and a few customers that may want it. 

Airbus will have to address its wing length for an A-350-1100 as it will be confined with its current A-350 terminal slots. If expands the wing length, it will have to find different parking spaces that would allow longer wings. Boeing thought this problem through as it earlier patented a folding wing tip.

A folding wing tip is the new norm for getting into every substantial airport available with a very big duo aisle aircraft. Airbus will have to come out with a telescoping wing tip for its A-350-1100 unless Boeing already patented such technology😉.


The 777X wing stands at 467 sq. meters and could go longer within an extended folding tip portion by several feet of length if it needs for a proposed 777-10X. The Airbus wing currently has 442 sq. meters, leaving the Boeing 777X wing 5% larger. When Airbus decides if it will go with an 1100 it will need to add some sq. meters to its current wing for meeting flying specifications for something so large. 

The A-380 has a wing area of 845 sq. meters as a comparison. It gains fuel burn efficiency from a massive wing area. Airbus must go large-wing with a A350-1100 if it wants to remain competitive with the 777X regarding fuel burn efficiency.

Having a 212 foot long wing won't cut it for hauling 450 passengers as it needs to compete with a 777-10X. The A-350-900-1000 wings have maximized the engineering in the current models offered. The cost of scaling upward for an 1100 type would not allow Airbus enough worthwhile profit, if they could even sell 200 frames for this type.

Friday, September 22, 2017

Is Boeing On The Verge Of A 787 Gold Rush?

The question becomes obvious after Turkish Airlines announced its recent 787-9 order for $11 Billion in 787-9 Airplanes. With Japan announcing it was the owner of a prior unidentified order for four, Boeing appears its on the verge of some sort of airplane gold rush to order. The indicators have been sounding off as if it is a metal detector. The shovel ready production projects are nearing completion in Everett, Wa. for its 777X program and Charleston presses on with the 787-10. The whole Boeing landscape is a buzz with activity, if it were unloading supplies for the Klondike.

The first "Gold" exclamation came when Boeing announced it was going for producing 14 787 a month instead of its guided 12 a month pace it had announced in previous years. At that time a loud "Ka-ching" hit the factory floor as it were a cash register making a big sale. Boeing had hoped for even making 16 a month 787 in some kind of fiendish glee heard in a meeting room near a water cooler/vending machine set-up. That brief omission was for stock-holder confidence, but no one believed that was possible. However, stock-holder investment rose significantly as if a runaway bull in the exchange was named Boeing instead of Boo-Boo.

Reality falls somewhere in between gleeful manifestation and depression. In a bi-plane/bi-polar world somewhere in between lies the answer and today it is 14 a month 787's. The formula is simple, 16+12 / 2 = 14. Checking math was given to a fifth grader and it came back as 14 -787's a month from a lengthy Boeing word problem. The work paper was given to a Winging It University (WIU) professor for final correction. The fifth-grader was correct and the problem was added to the University's math curriculum.

The professor gave a lecture last week entitled "14 a Month is an Idea Not a Concept". The following crib notes were discovered in a dumpster nearby the lecture hall. "Boeing must know something about its order book; Thanksgiving is months away, A turkey is what's for dinner, "Dubai me a river" is rising in the charts, A movement in the market is a lonely number. Boeing's campaign for Job One is a stand-a-lone concept. In order to go to 14 a month is not a bravado move, but reflects In-Orders. Net numbers is the same as never-mind."

The remaining notes on crumbled paper were indiscernible. Winging It looked up "Indiscernible" on the laptop and found out you couldn't read the remaining notes. Investigative reporting is hard work. However, a conclusion is made which should enlighten your knowledge and save time on making a decision on whether Boeing is rapidly becoming the one or just lonely (only). Airbus is having a WTF convention this week. The topic is WTF and Boeing Orders.

Back to the tittle heading. A Gold rush is the same as a perfect storm. All the elements must line-up perfectly before it can occur. In Boeing's case, is its control of its 787 backlog which is less than the Airbus A-350 backlog. Producing more wide bodies than a competitor can, would or could. Having the industry standard is better than having a more expensive alternative. Gold and cash are shadow currency to one another. Boeing is entering into the Perfect Gold Rush!