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Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Scale and Innovate Boeing Gets Squeamish

It starts at the top for any merger. United Technologies and Rockwell Collins are seeking common ground for a synergistic merger. It will roll two chief Boeing suppliers into one, thus possibly losing supplier competition with Boeing's supplier base.

“The combination gives us the ability to both scale and innovate,” Greg Hayes, chief executive officer of United Technologies, told analysts on a conference call Tuesday, a day after the deal was announced.

Examine what industrial product scaling means and the innovation component that could be lost with one less competitor than a merger will create. Boeing argues that a competitive nature will be lost halving the innovative component after a merger. 

The United Technology CEO, says it gives them the "ability", suggesting they don't have the ability at this time to scale and innovate. With that sentiment, United Technology is stating it can't compete without a merger. Scaling is a simple concept when considering a complicated merger. See article below by Josh Lowry

Scaling: 
This week, I was asked, “What does ‘scale’ the business mean?”  “Scale” is an often used in business and can have different meanings depending on the context.  Some common examples include: “Are we operating the business at scale?”  or “Are we taking advantage of the scale of our business?”  or “Can the product scale-up or scale–down depending on demand?” or “Does the business scale?”  or “We are currently scaling-out the team.”   Below is my attempt to put some structure around the term “scale” for these common scenarios.
Are We Operating the Business at Scale?
Operating the business at scale means allocating and optimizing resources to drive the greatest results and volume across market segments.  Are marketing and sales working together to generate demand and close business?  Are closed deals being transitioned to services/support to be nurtured?  Are partners being leveraged to multiply the company’s marketing, sales and services efforts to reach new customers and displace the competition?  Operating the business at scale is about optimization, not duplication, of efforts.
Are We Taking Advantage of the Scale of Our Business?”
Scale is another word for size. Companies can leverage their size by negotiating exclusive dealings, favorable terms and volume discounts with other organizations. Partnering with large businesses can also provide companies with access to national and world-wide markets to sell products and services. In addition, keeping costs low or unchanged while increasing sales volume provides companies with the opportunity to further decrease prices – new customers, more marketshare – without sacrificing margin (economies of scale).
Can the Product Scale-Up or Scale-Down Depending On Demand?”
Many industries have periods during their calendar/fiscal year where they experience increased customer demand for products and services (e.g., retail industry during the holiday season).  Core infrastructure offerings from organizations like Amazon Web Services enable retailers to increase server capacity (scale-up) when customer demand is high without having to invest in new hardware. Retailers can then reduce server capacity (scale-down) during normal operating periods.  These types of offerings/products let companies pay for what they need, when they need it.
Does the Business Scale?
Companies that scale have operating leverage.  They can growth revenue with minimal or no increase in operating costs (e.g., administrative, sales, etc.).  To illustrate: In Year 1, company delivers $10M in revenue with $1M in operating costs.  In Year 2, company delivers $12M in revenue with $1M in operating costs.  Company scales because it grew revenue by $2M without increasing its operating costs.  This is common with software and other technology companies who develop IP at an early stage and subsequently monetize it at low marginal costs over time.
In contrast, if company’s operating costs increase by the same amount as its revenue, the business does not scale.  That is, if company requires its operating costs to increase by $2M in order to grow its revenue by $2M, the business is not scaling.  Consulting firms like Accenture and McKinsey & Company are prime examples of organizations that do not scale.  This is because there are a fixed number of billable hours in a day, so they have to add consultants on a one-to-one basis to grow revenue.
A common way companies scale is through channel partners. Companies multiply their marketing, sales and services efforts with partner resources in exchange for a percentage of the margin. For example, if company has ten direct sellers, it is limited by the reach of those ten sellers. However, if company partners with a reseller with 50 sellers, company has increased its sales force (in theory) by 500%. Sharing 30% of the margin is less expensive than the cost of hiring an additional 50 sellers.
Companies also use marketing to scale the business.  Marketing enables companies to effectively (results) and efficiently (cost and speed) communicate to customers with the right message at the right time.  Marketing also helps generate customer demand and drive pipeline velocity for sales, which reduces selling costs.  Driving customers and prospects to one-to-many events (e.g., product launches, solution roadmaps, etc.) is a common way to scale with marketing. For example, it is more efficient to sell to 500 CEOs at once than it is to sell to them separately.
We Are Currently Scaling-Out the Team
Once a company has developed a repeatable sales model, the next logical step is to invest in headcount to accelerate (and scale) the business. In software, this means adding sellers/territories within geographies to localize the business. For example, if company has developed a successful, repeated sales model in Seattle, WA, it can grow (scale) revenue by implementing the same sales model in San Francisco, CA. In the restaurant industry, it is the same theory for selling new franchises. In the retail industry, it is the same theory for opening new stores.
All contents copyright © 2012, Josh Lowry.  All rights reserved.
The bottom line for the argument is enhanced scaling goes with the merger and Boeing has reservations with both the innovation and scaling comment coming from United Technologies.
Innovation is the big item bothering Boeing. It believes competitive innovation makes for better choices for its best and lowest cost systems or parts offering from a variety of suppliers rather than one post merger mega supplier. Losing just one mega supplier to a merger hurts its future chances for having the best and lowest cost option for systems and parts.
In defense of the innovative function, Leonardo Da Vinci worked in a virtual vacuum when he drew up a flying machine. His innovation was off the charts without competition. However, Boeing argues having multiple helicopter makers makes Boeing compete for the best version for the lowest cost and that innovative function should scale down to its suppliers as well. 

Dissolving one company as a result of a merger will hurt the aviation industry as a whole as it would have only one innovator and not two supplying aviation's inventions.
There are two sides to every argument, United Technology and Rockwell Collins want to combine for financial and other stock value reasons, but both have reached a size issue in the world of aviation. There are only so few producers of aviation supplies with this scale in the world. Boeing can't simply go to a garage size innovator and then compete on the world market place using a DIY touch screen from a former techno-junky coming from a garage. 

It isn't scalable to bring these types of innovators up to speed for the size of Boeing's industrial output. In order to compete Boeing would have to hire 10,000 divergent techno-junkies and house them under one roof in hopes management can rope them into making a new avionics suite. 
Its a problem of scalability and innovation when the supplier source is so few and scalability becomes so large. Boeing will press forward making it difficult for a supplier merger of this scale. In other words, its a not so simple. A passenger seat delay can bring both the mega aviation manufacturers to its knees. Just ask Airbus how its production is going while waiting for new seats to be delivered from Zodiac. 

The supplier is over-whelmed and there is no other supplier option in site. Boeing is risk adverse and a merger will increase the supplier risk with rising costs and lower supply options when delivering for its own airline customers.

Monday, September 4, 2017

North Korea Eye On The South

North Korea is blustering its way around Guam, Japan and other military locations, but its eyes are really on South Korea. In a surrogate role for China, whose own aspirations are for the time being the South China sea with a blocking move for all of East Asia's traffic, it would be a strategic mistake thinking it would be just about Guam with a North Korean missile strike.

Game Board:

Image result for north korea hydrogen bomb

The target is South Korea with all its technological and industrial might. American's would really get angry if it lost Hyundai-Kia or some other techno product to the Chinese/North Korean aspirations. 

Therefore, like all gamesmanship pieces the options for peace are limited and the probability for war are wide open. The Asiatic Game of Monopoly entails threats from players until the next roll of dice.

North Korea:


  • Launching missiles
  • Vast hidden bunkers
  • A million soldier army
  • Nuclear Capability
  • A fearful South Korea
  • Crazy leadership
  • China


The US:

  • Launching Missiles
  • Vast Military Complex
  • Allied partners
  • Nuclear Capability
  • A Fearful South Korea
  • Somewhat Crazy Leadership
  • China



China:

  • Launching its own stuff
  • Vast Military Populations (millions and millions into Tai Chi)
  • Secretly using North Korea for its own Aspirations
  • Nuclear Capability
  • A Fearful Military Complex
  • Crazy Leadership
  • Itself


Let's play the game with these pieces. The first roll of the dice is launching North Korean missiles willy-nilly with a purpose for scaring sensible people into a let's make some appeasement with the North. Where the US is seeking an elimination of the "problem". 

The US has a treaty card with South Korea and it will use it on the next roll defending South Korea. China has billions and billions of $'s in trade with the US and is really mad at North Korea (not) for causing a problem with its roped in trade partner. It won't supervise North Korea into any sensible resolutions nor does it really want to do that, since it already has a "billion" man army at its disposal. North Korea can be dealt with at a future date after China plays the US out of this game.

The US has a turn because the rules say it has a turn and for no other reason. It flips up a Japan card and moves the F-35 Southward. The dice moves its game piece to Guam while passing "Go". It gets two; "get out the B-1's"  money cards. 

Image result for north korea hydrogen bomb

North Korea's turn: It launches its thirteenth missile since January 1, 2017. it then rolls its dice landing a one and then it moves Kim Jung Un deep into the peoples bunker's barber shop for a trim on his edges. Not feeling too edgy he (Kim) orders up a parade showing North Korea's latest cardboard missile cut-out on wheels. 

Image result for north korea hydrogen bomb

China rolls the dice and moves its piece to Marvin Gardens for a "I'm getting really mad special". It draws its South China Sea Threat card sending in more dredges for its "floating" sand bar navy. 

Image result for South China Sea dredging Note: China has has a large Navy of aircraft carriers made of sand in the South China sea. 

Operation Occupy is a knock-off of the America's Occupy Wall Street, China stole the plans from Occupy Wall Street. They just don't move until sand erodes away as nature intended. The US is developing a weather event to wash away sand collecting in the South China Sea.

The spinner, every game has to have a spinner, if it is including dice and cards, moves the US to the White House for a pressor. Its leader proclaims it has a B-2! No one saw that coming(stealth). China chimes up, "me-2!" 

The US draws a Go-To-Hell card. "Do not collect another B-1 card going-around-Go, just go straight-to-hell. Ouch, the US goes for a Community Chest draw and it gets a South Korea "can't we all just get along" card.

North Korea shakes the dice as it shakes the ground when it blows-up an under ground H-bomb, because it can. Kim Jung Un is confirmed to have Rabies from CNN reporting. Someone from his entourage of fearless small people with big hats notices whipping creme on the corner of his mouth. It is a mistake since Kim Jung Un was really slobbering foam from Rabies. The small guy to his facing left with a big commanders hat is sent to an airport and is poisoned.


Image result for Kim Jong Un and Military Staff




China again draws the angry card and seeks a way with North Korea to do the US in, as it pivots to the US seeking a way to do North Korea in without any face losing collateral damage. 

It's down to the million man starving North Korean army verses the 10 million man all dressed up and no place to go Chinese Army. 

The US has a B-2, flying behind the B-1 bomber in some kind of natural order. China once again rolls the dice and moves more sand around the South China Sea just for pounding purposes only. The US treaty with China allows it to just pound sand in the Sea's traffic lanes, only if it wants to do that little thing.

Image result for cnn headline news


The US draws the one and only "Headline News Card". It must find a way to counter the democratically elected arm of the news government as well as the press in the Russia and China. The US goes to the spinner and the arrow lands on "Twitter This!" It can't win no matter what option is presented and it chooses using dice to move away from the Peoples Democratic Elected News. 

It rolls a five and goes forward landing on the B&O railroad location where it's leader promptly begins talking about jobs and trade deals. North Korea launches another missile in some sort of applause metaphor. 

Image result for b & o railroad


North Korea has run out of missiles until next months replenishment. It must roll the dice and slam South Korea into another fear position. The US sends two more B-1's and one more B-2 in an effort for confusing North Korea with its numbers game. 

Image result for B-1 and B-2 BombersImage result for b-2 bomber

All the players are pushing and bumping towards drawing the last card. Being the last card, it would be the war card, where the rules are thrown away and everyone looses. 

How did we get to this point and why did  "the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary, in June 1914, a Serbian-nationalist terrorist group called the Black Hand sent groups to assassinate the Archduke", starting WWI, happen?

The Assassinated Archduke quoted as saying "the Arches of Duke in Belgium have fallen (circa 1914)"!
Image result for Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary

Germany Attacks France As Assassination occurs in Serbia and... North Korea fires another Missile and so forth.
Image result for WWI started when Archduke Ferdinand

Sunday, September 3, 2017

Boeing.com Orders Update

Boeing updated its website at the end of August with its order count. It added then subtracted 7 single aisle orders suggesting an order change occured from NG to Max thus not affecting gross or net single aisle counts from its 737 family of aircraft in 2017.


Sun Air Express was the order notation when it mentioned a customer has cancelled an order for seven NG's while Max increased by a count of seven during the same reporting period on August 29, 2017. 



Winging It Charting based on Boeing.com numbers reported from its website. 


Friday, September 1, 2017

All Things 787 Lists Big 787 December Deliveries

An often relied upon and cited web site All Things 787 has captured an interesting firing order for December 2017. If thinking December will be a dull production is a farce. There about 17 787's scheduled for delivery in the month. Blogger,  Uresh Seth is seldom wrong with his tracking and reporting from his website  AllThings787.

December should not disappoint Boeing's year-end game plan.


All Things 787 Scheduling during the Month of December 2017 

Marking  90 -delivered  787's  YTD, pressures Boeing for a strong finish during Boeing's fourth Quarter of its 787 deliveries. It has about 55 frames remaining for its customers delivery in this year's production schedule. Not counting December's listings leaves about 38 frames remaining for September, October and November,. Reaching a 13 month pace plus the 17 listed for December makes for a "NO Holds Barred" ruckus on the production floor. A "don't drop a tool" control over plant production, should show up starting with the Month of September. The Uresh "tables" can't predict an absolute outcome but is does predict Boeing's intent going into its final quarter for 2017.

US Starting Line Up Announced For North Korea's Big Game

North Korea, the antagonist  in our thinking, which is probably an absolute truth. The US the protagonist, even though it has much to account for themselves find themselves at the pre game tip off, kick-off or what any other sports metaphor applies. The US doesn't enslave its people to a level North Korea would nor does it kill off its dictator's (fearless leader) relatives (named Boris or Natasha), as a cultural practice. The US offers a strong response from Commander in Chief, Rocky The Flying Squirrel. A high ranking general, Bullwinkle, at the pentagon  strategizes  how the US will respond after he names it "Operation Peabody".

The first half starting line up for team USA top to bottom: B-1, F-15, F-35 (A or B?)

f 35 b 1 north korea japan .JPG  
Photo by Japan Air Self-Defense Force

Should North Korea order the US into having fly-by's by firing missiles at Japan? No! Since they can't even rent a "Robin" costume from "Batman's" footlocker. 

Holy Snickies Batman, what is a B-1?

Now for the commercial break analysis of the impending mess and ejection of players from North Korea (NK). 

The F-35 as mentioned by this web site, is a flying combat computer which hasn't shown its chops in a combat scenario. The US would like to sell more of its pride and joy to the world.  Kim Jung Un (NK's Boris), says he can help that proposal and rattles off a half dozen or so ballistic missiles in a few short months, claiming it can shoot down Guam in the process. NK also shoots one over Japan in a free advertising scheme with the US. What if NK has discovered how to arm its missiles or worse yet detonate one over its planned target? By-the-way, Guam is an Island and Kim can't shoot it down?

Robin then again pipes up, "Holy annihilation Batman, what's a B-1?

Batman then succinctly lays down his NK prognostication, "Robin, the F-35 is a flying computer which can plug its wi-fi into the B-1 and play an arcade game of Pack man. The F-35 with its vast sensors can identify multiple targets, lock and load the B-1 and "Bamm!  NK wakes up in the stone age. The fight is down to sticks and stones and the US has bigger stones, so says Rocky."

The F-35 can fly between the radar hedges and storm the field like a Bulldog. It eludes 1950's radar like a roach when the lights turn on. It then passes a long bomb to the B-1 flying over the F-35 shadow dance below. The F-35 can launch a "localized nuke" if asked nicely by General Bullwinkle. The F-35 precision refines dumping an explosion to within a zip code, if NK even has one.

General Bullwinkle is harrumphing himself in front of CNN for the sake of its last remaining viewing sycophants. He loves it when a plan(e) comes together. The explanation is directed to any would be egomaniacs of the world. "We have bigger stones and will use them if provoked." 

Rocky, without extreme ego-humility addresses the nation in solemn tones, " I should of, would of, could of made Nk's (lower case k) leading export of radiated glass, but it would have no value for our stain glass industry. Instead I ordered the Surgeon General to conduct precision surgical strikes on Nk's extensive bunker system, thus saving its population from using its own mass transit system and then blocking use of its vast rock gardens throughout the Nk nation.  We didn't use the name Operation Market Garden from WWII fame, but settled on "Operation Peabody" sending Nk on its "way back machine", to the stone age."

By the way, El Rocky, as fondly referred to in the oval office with a round table, mentioned a new deal for the F-35's with its Island Nation of Puerto Rico. F-35B's will land on the sovereign beaches of US Territories, thus expanding tourist trade to any Island nation within the US Territory Trade Agreements (USTTA).

The "Us To" agreement fully allows every Island or peninsula adjacent to a US Territory the same access to military base canteens within a 2,200 mile sphere of influence this making Nk and Guam a partnered canteen guest and host. 

The last word about Nk's future and territorial trade agreements, "Huh!"  

Boeing's August 787 Production and Program Recap

The Boeing 787 program numbers are available with both summary program numbers and August's units in its production activity. Below in Table one is the steady erosion of 787 backlog numbers as it reports 89 787 delivered YTD for the 787 family of aircraft. The second number of interest is the number of YTD 787 sales at a net of 78 units.  

Table 1.

The second table below shows Boeing has met its own guidance for delivering 12  units a months over the last 90 days. More will summarized as the year closes and Boeing closes in on its 787 production goals for 2017

Table 2.

The table below is a snapshot of quarter by quarter 787 deliveries and orders. Boeing has slipped behind on orders as its deliveries out pace the orders by 89-78. The much watched for book to bill ratio of "1" has slipped to a .87 factor, indicating a pause in the sales as compared with its production output.

Table 3.

The program progress chart below provides a snapshot of YoY  787 Orders compared with its deliveries, and a backlog perspective during the program's progress. The backlog has dipped to its lowest level with a total of 689 unfilled 787 orders. since 2011 when Boeing made its first three 787 deliveries.


Table 4.

Table 5. Is a break out of Model by Model orders, delivered and corresponding unfilled orders.


Table 6. Is a 787 snapshot of works in process reflecting on historical processed aircraft as deliveries and the current production floor units.