DDG 1000 Makes Rescue During First Sea Trial

The yet to be named Zumwalt class  DDG 1000 rescues a fishing captain 40 miles to the South East of Portland Maine during its initial sea trials. The select crew performed the rescue in a small boat launched from the "Zumwalt class destroyer" at 3:00 am Monday last. "Rescue from other ships" now has a check mark for the DDG 1000 today. The Navy team onboard did their job well. The stealthy-like ship gives out a radar signature the size of a fishing boat even though its 15,000 tons is a massive seagoing object with a crew of about 180 members. The Arleigh-Burke class destroyer company is close to 300 members. This suggests more automations and sci-fi efficiency.

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Becoming Exclusive, A Market Strategy

Often the industry looks at size and numbers as the benchmark for market dominance. The number of aircraft in backlog is a driving impressionable quantum. However, after looking at the insatiable growth of market backlog, that factor begins to lose luster after it falls out of relevancy with customer plans. How can an Airline place an order with a seven year wait? It needs money for that order, if all goals are met in the high risk of market change over time.

An airline also knows it can convert orders to the next latest models during a seven-ten year backlog of waiting for its intended order. Many Boeing 737NG orders were converted to 737 MAX under this condition. The order placement so many years out, did not take into account an accurate estimation the Max announcement would occur.

Airbus has raced ahead of Boeing on single aisle orders placed in 2015. Airbus is also proclaiming a sixty per month build rate for its A320 NEO by 2020. Boeing will try fifty-two a month produced by 2018. So yes, Boeing is keenly aware that "Backlog Matters". It is not a glamorous number thrown around customers as some kind of dominating number in the market place. It makes customers reconsider, reconstruct, and renew its own five year planning in the most awkward manner. Customers can't always adjust while its providers goes seven years out on a wait list. The condition described above, pulls in, too much risk into an airline's "plan". Airbus has an incredible desire for selling aircraft and being the world's largest everything, even at the expense of its customers. Airlines may fail out and experience an opportunity loss from a long term wait. Company "A" (Airbus Customer) may have to wait too long for an aircraft delivery while extended time waiting will not fit its own business plan or can it adjust from market changes. Because of this exposure from more time passing, a just-in-time delivery goes out the Airline window.

Boeing, naturally is company "B" where they are openly seeking a production balance driven by customer opportunity. Boeing realizes it must maintain a manageable backlog even at the expense of losing PR points of not having the World's Largest Airplane Backlog (WLABL). Boeing gave market guidance many months earlier, it would have an approximate 755 units placed on order for 2015. Airbus by comparison has already achieved over 1006 aircraft ordered during 2015.

737 NG Production Floor Renton, WA

Boeing has already recognized a market nullification has emerged for the single aisle market. Market nullification is a term defining that either mega manufacturer does not have a significant edge over the other from product advantage of a customer's operations, other than providing timely delivery into a customer's  own business plans. In other words the defining a "choice metric" comes from a customer's own operational situation rather than the supplier's product having some market edge. The duopoly has nullified itself into a customer's operational decision tree of what would be more convenient for "Our Airline". The checklist for the operator becomes: commonality of fleet, delivery time, and market conditions. These are all out of control of the manufacturer, since they have nullified themselves through achieving many goals of commonality, excessive backlog and dynamic market conditions. The market belongs to the manufacturer's customers not the manufacturer.

Airbus went big in 2015 where Boeing went small with its order book. The advantage over time will benefit Boeing if it tunes its production capacity towards its customer as an exclusive relationship. Boeing is closing in on a position of: "When do need it and how many?" Airbus is pulling away with its single aisle just like popular restaurants have an excessive wait time for a table on Friday night. Boeing must adjust its backlog making an exclusive partnership with its customer, and not look over its shoulders at the Airbus bloviating. It must make the relationship with its customers, by containing a functional production queue. If Boeing can sell more airplanes it must expand its production first to meet customer demand in the sales process, as it will sell more airplanes from a commitment of productivity not the slight differences found in it products with its competitor. It is this blog's belief Boeing has done just that, taking on a responsible mantle of taking on more orders when able to do so within a sensible delivery time for its customer.

American Airlines 787-9 Premium Economy

I'd buy it on long flights. Twenty-one seats offered in three rows of 2-3-2 configuration will make "any pond jump” for a sensible price with enough extras complimenting your extended hours of travel enjoyment.

American Airlines 787-8 seating chart.

The American Airline 787-9 delivery in 2016 will have this intercontinental flair for its passengers. Judging by what others are doing, American will make a slightly more expensive ticket than an Economy Plus worth on price for long legged routes.

Leg room six inches more room (37" pitch estimation). Seats having a significant width wider than economy in comparison (about 22"). Upgrades on in-flight amenities and boarding privileges. Viola, your trip from Seattle to Paris becomes remarkable on the 787-9 for the price significantly less than business class pampering. 

This American Airline rendition should carry about 260 passengers. United has 252 seats on its 787-9 for comparison. Winging It estimates about 260+ for American Airlines until seating is announced late in 2016, before American Airline first delivery.

Creating The Max

Boeing's website is open for business concerning the 737 Max. It has rolled from its factory to the paint shop and back for final preparations for first flight testing.

"Creating The Max": Boeing Link

Single Aisle At The Climax (Updated new 737 Oders)

Boeing has long proposed its 737 MAX is the undisputed winner of the Single Aisle Airplane Wars. Airbus says not so fast people, the A320 NEO reigns supreme. Who is correct in this assumption?

The answer is in sales numbers for various reasons.

• Fleet renewal opportunity
• Commonality Curve
• Oil Prices become a non-purchase factor
• Time
• Paper vs Metal, Flying version wins orders.

Airbus had an eleven month jump in time over Boeing announcing in 2011 its NEO single Aisle. Boeing lost the advantage of time and was set backwards by about 1200 NEO's ordered in the first year. The first 787 was delivered in 2011 and Boeing was flummoxed by an early 787 debacle and couldn't counter punch Airbus at that time until the next year when orders came surging in for the MAX.

However, Airbus was in perfect sync with market realities. They kept going forward with its customers filling its order book.. Boeing could only try to stay on the same lap around the development stage with orders.

 

So far, so good until 2015. Airbus is ready to lap Boeing on single Aisle orders. This leads me to ponder that oil prices do not make a case for Boeing, for buying its MAX over the NEO. The fuel efficiency difference for the two is a non-decider. 

Commonality found in Airbus product is further along, than Boeing's conversion towards its theme of "fly like a 787" on all models. Customers new to Airbus, may have bought into the price offering from a single aisle discount. Boeing strapped for program profit may have held firm with its pricing in order for it to avoid any development hit on its bottom line for the MAX.

Airbus stole the march on Boeing in 2011 and timed the world fleet renewal window perfectly. The lower oil prices have just began shrinking purchase power in 2015. Boeing drew the short straw when leasing aircraft becomes a tool and side effect from lower fuel prices.

However, as dismal as the 2015 period appears for Boeing Single Aisle purchase orders, it has built a significant internal construct for its marketing. The multitude of 787 sold, and the 777X launch success will make the case for having a top to bottom family of Boeing aircraft. Boeing's out of sync fleet "renewal opportunity surge", will catch-up by 2018 to the NEO book numbers. The year 2015 is bottom hitting for Boeing's Single Aisle effort. In fact Boeing will book some more MAX this month but won't catch Airbus. Boeing will have aligned its timing, commonality factor, and fleet renewal windows by 2018.

The flying version wins orders for Airbus as Boeing sketches out the Max on the CAD, its paper version loses momentum with orders during 2015. The third round of this fight will begin with Boeing having bloody cuts and bruises from the fight. The Boeing metal version rolls towards towards its corner in the shop awaiting the next round.  

Update:

Boeing jumps some net orders for the 737 before year's end, and slightly closes single aisle gap. It is a good indicator Boeing is in the fight to win it.

2015 Net Orders

563

2

49

58

71

743

The Boeing Order Book Graphed

Boeing has amassed orders for a seamless transition from it production floor going from NG to Max effort. The only gap found in the order book is the 747-8i has stalled as the new found twin solution makes it obsolete. A 747-8i doesn't die because of Airbus, it dies because of the 777X concept.

Owning two 405 seat 777-9X can fly more destinations than one 500 seat A380. The A380 is also a dead concept no matter how luxuriously appointed the Gulf States make it.

A Business Finance News Chart

  

With over 4,000 single aisle and over 1,000 Wide Bodies backlogged, Boeing has its work scheduled in a envious position. Comparing with Airbus who has a larger backlog it will be difficult for Airbus to fit more orders in a timely manner. Boeing has synced its production slots closer to market demand, and it will serve them well when marketing for more orders. Airlines who are expanding or are newly forming can fit its fleet expansions for single aisle ordering with Boeing, an important consideration when matching financial resources with business plans.

DDG 1000 Zumwalt Goes To Sea Trials Possibly December 7th

My favorite destroyer is going all out, maybe this Monday. The billions planted on board will make way for testing its systems under full operations with its crews and BIW expertise for the big shakedown. In case you have been living under an anchor, the Zumwalt is the equivalent of the Air Force F-35 when it comes to innovation and technology applications.

The massive destroyer is just bigger and faster than the Arleigh Burke class destroyer. It is stealthier and contains more firepower than most fighting ships found in the world. A projectile from the Zumwalt could sail 60 miles to its target, where the "round" applies inertia and mass obliterating buildings, ships and other wartime objects, and all while coming in at the speed similar to a meteor from space (via rail gun). It could manage the ocean battlespace for both air support and coordinate other ships by using satellite connectivity with multi military systems. It may be invisible from electronic sweeps from its design features. Three will be built, maybe that is all that is needed, one for each Ocean.

How Did Airbus Get To 787?

That is right, the Airbus order count had to play some serious tricks to its order book for totaling a net of 787 A350's to date. When the A350-800 died(ugh), Airbus orders slumped down to a net total of 787 A350's since it had only 787 units ordered and had no other choice. Oh my, not 787 units on order, somehow, it’s Order Book Karma! Since it is also getting near the winter solstice, and I am ready for more valuable information, I am sharing outrageous observations during the season making a new Winging It Christmas tradition. Hours of Darkness improves my lucidity? Just think only 22 shopping days before I go broke.

Airbus needs to desperately sell one more A350, any takers?

Starting with 817 net A350's ordered "Winging It" considers these A350-800 adjustments! Subtract the net thirty Airbus loss over the A350-800 cancellations and transfers to other A350 aircraft, Viola its 787 time on the books.

OFFICIAL Link to the Numbers

787-10 Seals Design Completeness. Lock and Load Time

Boeing just signaled the long journey in the design shop has ended for the 787-10. The mega builder learned from its 787-8 process how not to go there and there. It then built the 787-9 without missing a step. The mishap trail disappeared in the development weeds. The 787-9 was an opus effort for all things good and all things perfect. Sales kept soaring for the 787-9 (Below). 

The excitement for the 787-10 climbed because of the 787-9 tests and delivery to New Zealand Air's "all black ops" entry into service excited the world. The giddy Boeing team knew it had validated the 787 concept coming from disastrous 787-8 days to the heady 787-9 march through designing, freezing, and successful first flight.  All the 787-8 bogies were shot down by the 787-9 program.

It comes to the 787-10 with all the "how to" confidence and billions of experiential knowledge points on a new frame that is 95% 787-9 based. Continuous improvement has hit the big leagues with the 787-10 effort. It will fly forward without mishap. It will fly loaded for about 7,400 miles. It will seat up to forty more passengers than the 787-9, which is already comfortably outfitted with about 290 seats. Call it targeted for 330 seats for ocean busting covering 90% of the world market. If you want more then buy the 777-9X for 100% world market coverage and 405 seats.

Boeing Quote: Via E Turbo News

"With the 787-10, we are building upon our experience and the 787-9 design itself to create this newest member of the super-efficient 787 family," said Ken Sanger, vice president of 787 Airplane Development. "Through our dedicated team and our disciplined processes, we have optimized the design for the needs of the market and are excited as we look forward to production."

Using the word "excited" is an understatement from Ken Sanger. The first level order book stands at 164 787-10 sold. No one expected 164 before entry into service. It may rise in order number once it flies during the testing phase.

One more Boeing PR Quote:

"The 787-10 is the third and longest member of the 787 family. With a range of 6,430 nautical miles (11,910 km), the 787-10 will cover more than 90 percent of the world's twin-aisle routes at a whole new level of fuel efficiency: 25 percent more fuel efficient than the airplanes it will replace and at least 10 percent better than anything offered by the competition for the future."

Predictive Nature Of Boeing Blogging

It's always important foreseeing future trends based on current and past efforts while making an assumption out of whole paper tissue. Currently Boeing and Airbus has already made its 2015 statements representing many months of activity and preparation. Airbus holds the order book advantage going into December 2015. Boeing holds a few more calculated surprises which in no means will overtake the Airbus lead, but will demonstrate a market position in both the wide body and narrow body markets.

The scorecard is important to Airbus as an arm of its marketing scheme. They have achieved a draining of its order swamp this year going into the end of 2015 with its 910 gross order book count.

It beats Boeing in count by a wide margin which has mustered 647 Boeing aircraft booked in a gross count way. The question becomes what does this all mean in a snapshot.

Assumptions:

• Boeing drained its order swamp in 2014
• Airbus pricing is favorable with neutral leaning customers 
• Boeing Wide body has gained market separation over Airbus Wide body
• Airbus A320NEO keeps on keeping on
• Boeing Max comes in late after the single aisle market bubble ordering pops.

Just looking at these few ideas about the Boeing order book is enough realization, Boeing knew 2015 would softened its bookings, and not to worry about what Airbus does in 2016. For them (Airbus) it will be tough to double down on its ordering pace for two years in a row.

Boeing has achieved a benchmark that Airbus doubted when the first A350 was delivered. There should be no continuation of 787 order dominance. Airbus believes that once the A350 was delivered it was game over for the 787. Not so fast my friend! The 787-9 and 787-10 keeps up with orders while the A350 family of orders has languished in 2015. Boeing takes in a net of 71 (97 gross) 787 orders in 2015 while Airbus only has seven (oops) A350 during the same period of time.

Those numbers suggest a serious separation for competing programs. The Boeing stretches out its order and delivery lead even though the A350 has put its best foot forward with Qatar deliveries. The Arab state isn't drawing many comparison between the two types of competitors it now owns. Being the Airbus A350 launch customer, you would think its own pride of choice would deem some disheartening remark towards the 787 in its fleet, as positioned as the Premier Airbus A350 Launch customer.