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Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Part I:Is It Teething Woes? (Updated (2) with Boeing Response)

Boeing and its customers are undergoing what Boeing has classified as "Teething Woes" or are these problems really "Root Canal" surgeries?  The 4,700 plus hours of test flights did not reveal repeated problems like the customer aircraft are now experiencing.

Remember publicized development curses, in general as follows:

Test Stage Short List.

  • Fastener Issues, because lacking supply chain quantities to assemble test aircraft.
  • Fastener Installation Issue of not properly installing correctly or using correct fastener in Charleston
  • Italy had incorrect tail area required extreme shimming remedy.
  • De-lamination issues and corrective shimming procedures
  • Wing Box Area Fixes 
  • Fire in the Electrical (G-spot) on late test flight. (Redesign, six month delay) 
G-spot defined as,  Electrical, Generator, and Battery systems

Customer Stage:


  • ANA and Japan Airline Engine Issues and other squawks
  • United Airlines Electrical Area G-spot(Generator) issues
  • Air India multiple squawks with several operational stand-downs
  • Air India, Parts-Departing From Engine Charleston Airport/grass fire 
  • Qatar G-spot (generator) issue 
  • Japan Airlines Fire in G-spot (battery) operational shut down on aircraft
  • Japan Airline Fuel leakage


Now that about 50 aircraft are delivered; suppliers, Boeing and assembly are into a routine of making the 787. No longer are six months used to push an aircraft out the door. The due diligence cannot convert to negligence.  However these issues, great and small are fixable, and have not yet caused a call-back to the drawing board in a whole-scale level. Engineering changes yes, but no concept changes, that would  be similar to  a major redesign and cause the customer fleet a redo as in the pre-delivery days.  Currently there are about 20 aircraft in change incorporation that are in the process of redo.  These are taking up to an additional two years.  Boeing would be extremely smart to come clean on its status of its early issues. They remain confident of the aircraft.  It is still a brilliant Idea, but I also wonder how many engineers are running down Boeing's hallways with there hair on fire, while "Baghdad Bob" explains, "we are slaughtering the competition in airplane wars." Are these really typical start-up squawks for an A-typical airplane?

Increased complexity increases the squawks, Airbus take note. These are just A-typical squawks for an A-typical airplane going through teething pains that are not routine issues for a new airplane.  An all electric architecture is not typical.  The good news is as follows.  Boeing overbuilt new systems never before employed.  They took the NASA route of multiples for everything until further notice. A test Airplane catches fire in electronics bay during flight over the Rocky Mountains, Boeing just landed later in Texas and found out what went wrong. Safety, redundancy and planning has kept this aircraft flying through the root-canals in its jaw bone.

What is amazing is the safety measures installed on this aircraft.  Bugs are still hitting the wind screen, yet it keeps its passengers safe.  The Dreamliner may be known as the airplane with an Indomitable Spirit.  Forging safely ahead with its all new advances, despite the set-backs.



Boeing top engineer says he's confident 787 is safe

Written by  Media Sources

  • Wednesday, 09 January 2013 17:34

(Reuters) - Boeing Co rolled out the Dreamliner's chief engineer to try to quell concerns about the new jet following three mishaps in as many days, including an electrical fire that caused severe damage to a plane.
At a news conference on Wednesday, the engineer, Mike Sinnett, defended the 787, the world's first plastic plane, and said its problem rates are at about the same level as Boeing's successful 777 jet.
Relatively few technical problems prevent 787s from leaving a gate within 15 minutes of scheduled departure time, he said. "We're in the high 90 percents," he said. "We're right where the 777 program was" at this stage.
The prevalence of more significant issues, such as a battery fire, is in the same order of magnitude as previous programs, he added. "There's no metrics that are screaming at me that we've got a problem."
Sinnett explained in detail how the lithium ion battery system that burned on Monday was designed by his team to be safe and prevent smoke getting into the cabin in the event of a fire during a flight. "I am 100 percent convinced that the airplane is safe to fly," he said.
Asked why smoke entered the cabin on Monday, Sinnett said the plane lacked cabin pressure to expel smoke because it was on the ground. In that scenario, "We expect that there would be sufficient time to evacuate the plane safely," Sinnett said.
The battery fire, on a 787 jet operated by Japan Airlines, occurred in Boston on Monday while the empty plane was parked at a gate after passengers had deplaned. That was followed by a fuel leak on another JAL 787 on Tuesday, and by brake problems on an All Nippon Airways 787 that forced the airline to cancel the flight on Wednesday.
These mishaps represent the most serious test of confidence in the Dreamliner since it began flying customers just over a year ago, following more than three years of delivery delays.
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and the National Transportation Safety Board are looking into what caused the fire, which came just weeks after Boeing endured a string of other electrical problems that briefly grounded three of the planes. The new jet also has suffered an engine failure and fuel leaks in the 14 months it has been in service.
Sinnett said the electrical faults that occurred in rapid succession in December were traced to a single lot of circuit boards manufactured at one time. He didn't name the supplier.
Analysts said they did not think regulators would ground the 49 Dreamliner jets currently in service due to this week's incidents, but some expected days or weeks to pass before firm details about the mishaps emerge - making it difficult to assess the severity of the problem, and the cost to fix them.
"It's clear through the conversation (from Sinnett) that it appeared to be manufacturing as opposed to design issues," said Jason Gursky, an analyst at Citigroup in San Francisco. "The fact that we've seen a multitude of small issues crop up and are not seeing the same issue time and time again would support that view."
Further detail from regulators are likely to take more time. In July, regulators took three days to decide whether to launch an investigation of a General Electric engine that failed on a 787, and another week passed before they provided details.
"We'd expect a similar timeline here," said Deutsche Bank analysts Myles Walton and Amit Mehrotra, in a note to clients Wednesday.
Boeing declined to discuss any aspect of the investigation into the battery fire. Analysts said the company still faces an image problem over the build quality of its marquee plane.
"There's no doubt in my mind that on the engineering side they are doing the right thing as far as dealing with these issues," said John Goglia, a former National Transportation Safety Board member and mechanic.
"They need to really reach out strongly with information to the press corps to make sure they understand exactly what happened and exactly what they are doing about it."
Boeing shares closed up 3.5 percent Wednesday, after losing more than 5 percent earlier this week.
"TEETHING PROBLEMS"
Of this week's incidents, the battery fire is of most concern. Lithium-ion batteries are heavily scrutinized by those who use them - not just airlines, but increasingly automakers as well.
"We cool our batteries. We put them through tests like you wouldn't believe," General Motors Chief Executive Dan Akerson said during a roundtable event Wednesday.
Shares of Japan's GS Yuasa Corp, which makes batteries for the 787, fell sharply for a second day on Wednesday.
Before Wednesday, Boeing had said little about the problems, though some of its most critical customers, like the CEO of Qatar Airways, have come to its defense.
Qatar Airways, the largest customer of the Dreamliner in the Middle East with an order for up to 60 of the aircraft, currently has five 787 jets. CEO Akbar al-Baker said the airline had no other issues since noting an electrical problem on one of its jets in December.
"Of course there will be teething problems from time to time, but this is foreseen with any new aircraft program," Al-Baker told reporters at an event in Doha on Wednesday.
Baker said he had no plans at the moment to cancel any plane orders with Boeing. "When we have to start grounding planes, then it becomes an issue and then they (Boeing) have to get their check book out," he said.
(Reporting by Alwyn Scott in New York, Tim Hepher in Paris and Karen Jacobs in Atlanta; Additional reporting by Ben Klayman and Deepa Seetharaman in Detroit and Deborah Charles in Washington, D.C.; Writing by Alwyn Scott and Ben Berkowitz; Editing by Leslie Adler, Bernard Orr)
Randy's Journal (Randy Tinseth, VP Boeing)

 http://boeingblogs.com/randy/


Update on 787 event in Boston

The 787 has been in the headlines quite a bit this week, and I wanted to take this opportunity to address the incidents at Boston Logan Airport.
First, today’s issue with one of Japan Airlines’ 787s (a different airplane than the one involved in Monday’s incident) was resolved after a four hour delay and the airplane took off for Tokyo.
As for Monday’s incident involving another JAL 787, we’ve been working closely with the airline, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and other government agencies. JAL tells us that after the airplane landed and all passengers had disembarked, smoke was detected. The smoke was later traced to the battery used to start the auxiliary power unit.
We can’t talk about any specific details while the investigation is ongoing. But I can tell you that nothing we’ve seen in this case indicates a relationship to any previous 787 power system events, which involved power panel faults elsewhere in the aft electrical equipment bay. We’ve shared the information about those prior events with the NTSB and they’re aware of the details. Since we want to deal in facts rather than speculation, we’re giving our technical teams time to look over everything. Our full statement is here.
In the meantime, 787s continue to fly all over the world. The airplanes are in service with eight customers— having logged more than 18,000 flight cycles and flown more than 50,000 hours. We have complete confidence in the 787 and vow to take care of any issues our customers are experiencing— day or night.


Monday, January 7, 2013

2013 Outlook For Airplane Framers (Must Read)

This is a share note for readers. Take a look at Aviation Week's Outlook Article for 2013

As brief as my notation is, this is a good background article to take forward in 2013.

Article #2

Its Not An Airplane Its Not A Blimp

Enjoy.


Saturday, January 5, 2013

2013 Will Prove Out A Boeing Strategic Decision Making Plan

Dark Horse Rising For 2013, The Boeing 787

The Year 2013, has just started.  It is my goal to review 2012 and glean what tidbits of information out from that year, and determine its strategic value for 2013.  This may be a difficult task.  I am not looking at trends, slopes, and markets. I am looking at the underlying Strategic sense from Boeing, for determining what the Company hopes to accomplish during 2013.

First up to bat: is how Boeing intends to play Frogger with Airbus? A game where the frog jumps onto lily pads over other frogs to get to the other side of the pond.  Landing on the next Lilly pad is tantamount of coming out with a new aircraft that supersedes the other Aircraft framer (Airbus) as a show stopper.  This game started many years ago with the Airbus A-320/B-737 match and is still raging onward today with engine war strategy.  The Airbus company went with super sizing everything like MacDonald's did, with its hamburger. Airbus is asking its customers, "Do you want  (flying) with that", on all orders?  This is where the tongue meets the cheek, and the rubber meets the flight line. As Ginormous the A-380 is, its for people needing people, when size matters.

Here are Boeing's Strategic Talking Points For 2013:
  • Keep Airbus Busy At The Copy Shop
  • Advance Product In A Timely Manner Soon After Airbus Commits To Its Designs
  • Lead From The Front, But Shoot From The Back
Below is a near-do-well authored, best selling 3 chapter Book, about Boeing Strategic goals: Critics are raving about its simplistic strategic genius. Please read all chapters if you have a minute.

Chapter I: (The Year 2013 Will Prove Boeing's Strategic Decision Making)

Keep Airbus At The Copy Shop
Strategic goal number one:


An Airbus panel section is hoisted into its Boeing-like copy shop. First Airbus said (paraphrased), " the 787 is not going to work, The A-380 is the answer". Two years later in a staff meeting, a High-up staffer for Airbus, was laser pointing his way through a meeting showing how Airbus has to catch-up with plastic airplanes. "Panels are the answer, if we do it in barrels, we would be just copying Boeing." So panels it is! Or in this case above, kinda a half barrel :<)   Now what we have, since 2005, is a Airbus Copy shop making a wider (6"s), and Bigger Airplane over the 787, just like Boeing's stuff (not really because Boeing has barrels and so much more than Airbus). Everybody complained (the copy paste press), about the 7-late-7, but is Airbus able to copy the Boeing? No in many areas, and yes in one fundamental area, a plastic hull. Airbus has spent an immense amount of time cherry picking Boeing subcontractors and industries, grabbing anything non proprietary it can from Boeing's play book. That all goes to the copy shop for a large F€€.

However, Airbus has shortened the distance when following Boeing's path, by not adding all all electric architecture, and skipping to a standard bleed-air, by-pass system. Used to power its hydraulic and other non Boeing compliant systems, but its still a plastic panel wagon! Airbus probably has unpublished issues at this time, since it has not had a test flight, they remain silent on the A-350-late and -9 (closing time is at 5:00 pm and its late, about 3:50 pm). When test flying does occur, I hope the press gives Airbus the same due diligence for every squawk. Just like they did for Boeing during its experiences, and journey to first delivery.  The Boeing all electric has reduced weight factors built into the system, since it lacks bulky hydraulic fluid, and lines as found on the Airbus.    

Strategic Goal For 2013 is to Keep Airbus Copying. It ties up resources for Airbus, and keeps it chasing Oz-like rainbows and Pooka's with its own second tier all new plastic airplane. Most flying customers wouldn't notice the all electric vs the hydraulic models, but bean counters, maintenance crews and airline bottom-lines will notice. 

Chapter II:  for: (The Year 2013 Will Prove Boeing's Strategic Decision Making)

Advance Product In A Timely Manner Soon...
After Airbus Commits To Its Designs

Strategic Goal Number Two:  777X and 787-10X


I am a big 787 fan (biggest understatement ever)! That being said, it is paramount that Boeing launches the 777X at the right time.  If 2013 finds a spot to make the most out  its customers, and its technological configuration, then 2013 is the time to leap frog the A-350 in the game of  Airplane "Frogger".  Airbus will be locked and loaded during 2013 for its A-350 line.  A 777X could set Airbus back a bunch, if Boeing can trump the A-1000 and A-900 in a three card game of 777X(-8,-9) and 787X-10. 


Airplane Frogger is Now In Play

Take time to compare the numbers as seen on the internet. You will surmise, dimensions, quantities and weights are not far apart for a 17 year old airplane compared to an Airplane that has yet to fly.  Boeing will not just go match up numbers straight across, it will find 787 commonalities, enhance structural integrity and space for the 777X.  Add new engines and weight saving technologies and this aircraft without using Airbus-like Carbon panels. It will meet and exceed the A-350's all-carbon-bird, with the 777X using light weight aluminum,  Carbon wing box and wings or flight surfaces, and it should match match or exceed, the A-350.  This is what the market wants to see before it goes on some Ginormous time payment plan when buying A-350's or 777X planes.

Giraffes are surmising when the Sun is rising


(If its blurry on your screen, I apologize. Double click image and use viewing magnifier to assist reading numbers in the comparison.  otherwise view on your screen in at 200 %.)


              The Old 777 (delta X ) is Taking on the:                  The New A-350           



The Old 777 (delta X ) is Taking on the:                                                                      New A-350           

Chapter III:   (The Year 2013 Will Prove Boeing's Strategic Decision Making) 

Lead From The Front But Shoot From The Back

Strategic Goal number 3: 777X, 787-10X and 787-9

But the 777X could be that "shot taken from behind", in Boeing's 2013 strategic plan.  The 787-10X is  the "lead from the front", item during 2013!

First the 787-9 will relax the naysayers into a pleasant ride on the 787-9


The 787-9 is just an execution of an already solid plan. Having aged 9 years with a refined configuration by sitting on the electronic chalk board. 2013 is the nine's year.  This is already in motion and has legs. Any 787 Concept Risks are retired and momentum is now in play. The 787 has already left the station while the Airbus A-350 has not yet flown. All the A-350 risks are in the flight bag waiting for take off.

Hence, the 777X is very important in 2013, as part of its shoot from behind strategic plan. Though the 787-9 and -10 will lead the way during the year with photographers, journalist and executives, who are more than ready to move onto the 787-9; with that attention garnered by the press and Airbus, Boeing holds the real target in view,supremacy, and out from the the rear, the 777-X takes its shot on the competition.   2013 promises to be an exciting year, similar to the test flight years for the 787 2009-2010 and the first deliveries in 2011. 2013 has a few surprises in it, which will keep the presses rolling. Boeing's strategery is unfolding at the wing tips.

Glossary score card:

Ginormous (Merriam- Webster says a real word from WWII British Military description of Big weapons, later used by Will Farrrel on (SNL))

Glean: After dinner you sweep up the crumbs to see what people ate from the field.

Paramount (not a picture studio, but more like a VIP who is more than important)

Pooka (No fairy is more feared in Ireland than the pooka. This may be because it is always out and about after nightfall, creating harm and mischief, and because it can assume a variety of terrifying forms.)

Tantamount (a well stacked supposition in an ill fitting sentence structure)

Surmise  (A half hour before sunrise)

Stategery (not a word, but needs to go in somewhere)

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Tax Season Has Hit The 777X


Boeing's long term dabbling on the chalk board and note pad for the 777X program ended awhile back. New computers were installed in the various technology pits within Boeing's world footprint. All this during a time when productivity of the 777 expanded, a surge line for the 787 was completed and Charleston rolled out and delivered a flyable 787.  Even though all this was going on, the 777X remained at bay, somewhere in a cement and glass encased buildings where cars are parked nearby, and don't move for long periods of time.  The Tax dragging down the 777X is listed below:

  • Resources for R&D are limited,
  • Cost reductions from production efficiency needed from the 787 project, and other projects.  
  • Project maturation not yet acquired for rolling technology forward to the 777X in design and configuration completion.
  • Cash flow management lean, because of 787-9,-10 infusions.
  • Enough people available that prevents show stoppers like the 787 program had for X long years.
These are just a few resources that taxes Boeing's Juggernaut of expanding its family line of aircraft.  Already multiples Gulf customers and others have expressed a serious interest in the 777X.  


Boeing is not concerned with customers at this point, but knows exactly what it needs to do before proceeding. An announcement can be made anytime in the next three years.  Even very soon, as in Paris 2013, if necessary. That maybe the key moment to blow up the party balloons around the Boeing Paris Pavilion.  If it does not happen then, its not because of lack of potential customers, because they do have a 777 backlog in play and interested customers as mentioned above.  The important thing, is similar to any major operation, you make a list and check it twice.  Ever since, I was child, the adults had a saying, "before you do that, get your ducks in a row". 

Boeing's ducks are not yet in a row or on a time table, when getting things right is more important.  It's not so much if Boeing can't execute the 777X, but its more of when it will be ready to execute the 777X.  Its like planning an invasion, where Boeing is marshaling all hands on deck, within a definite time period. No mention yet, of suppliers involvements, or potential partners on the project. Other than the usual suspects.  When the X announcement is made, the die has already been cast.  This is not a 777 make-over, it is a "777 game changer". Does Boeing have secret intelligence, that suggest the Airbus, A-350 family will not beat the 777-300, or does it have have a strategic move up its sleeve? Mystery surrounds the slow down, of both the 787-10 and 777X.  One can only surmise it is a pacing maneuver that makes sure a continuous flow of what is proposed or promised delivers at the right time and without setbacks.  A coiled spring is better than a limp rope.  It took awhile for Boeing to wind up the 787 project rope.


Boeing 777 wikipedia photo

Aspire Aviation Article   Boeing Develops 777X To Challenge Airbus A-350     


"Under the Chicago-based airframer’s latest schedule on the 777X development in December, the concept development of the 777-8X and -9X has been successfully accomplished at the end of 2011, with a firm configuration of the aircraft due in the second quarter of 2012, followed by the securing of an authority-to-offer (ATO) from Boeing’s board of directors in the third-quarter, Aspire Aviation‘s multiple sources at Boeing revealed."


"The GE9X engine will have a 10% lower engine specific fuel consumption (SFC) than the GE90-115B1 engine and will incorporate the twin annular pre-mixing swirler II (TAPS II) instead of the dual annular combustor (DAC), composite variable-bleed valve ducts at the exit of the booster stage. The GE9X will have the same fan diameter of 325 cm (128 inches) as the GE90-115B1 engine and delivers a thrust of 99,500 lbs (443 kN), compared to the GE90-115B’s 115,300 lbs (512 kN) of thrust.
“I’m spending over US$50 million on technology development on it in 2012. We’ll be ready,” GE Aviation chief executive David Joyce told Bloomberg, adding the new engine powering the 777-9X will be 6%-8% more fuel efficient than the GE90-115B1 engine.
The GE90-115B1 engine burns 0.25 pounds of fuel per pound of thrust delivered per hour (lb/lbt/hr) whereas the GEnx-2B engine on the 747-8 burns 0.274 lb/lbt/hr. It is noteworthy, however, that a direct comparison between the GEnx-2B and GE90-115B1′s fuel burn figures is skewed as the engine fan efficiency improves as the fan size increases. As the GE90-115B1 has a fan diameter of 135 inches, including the engine nacelle, whereas the GEnx-2B engine has a diameter of only 105 inches and the -1B engine has a diameter of only 111 inches,Aspire Aviation‘s sources say a 10% reduction in engine specific fuel consumption (SFC) of the GE-9X versus the GE90-115B1 engine is achievable."
  • "Meanwhile, the 777X will feature a 787-styled composite/super-critical wing that is going to have a considerably better lift-to-drag (L/D) ratio and is significantly lighter than the wings of the 777-300ER, with a wingspan of as large as 71.1 metres (233.4 feet)."
  • The larger wing of the 777X will make it an International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) Code F aircraft instead of the Code E category that the 777-300ER and -200LR are in today as well as a US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Airplane Design Group (ADG) Group VI aircraft whereas the 777-300ER and -200LR are Group V aircraft. The ICAO Code E and FAA ADG Group V categories include airplanes whose wingspan is between 52 m (170.6 ft) to 65 m (213.3 ft) whereas the Code F and ADG Group VI categories include airplanes with a 65 m (213.3 ft) to 80 m (262.5 ft) wingspan.
  • Moreover, the same sources say Alcoa’s 3rd-generation lightweight aluminium lithium (Al-Li) is a “viable option” for the 777X, which will feature a 10% weight saving and a 6% reduction in skin friction drag, while cautioning the decision in the choice of the material for the 777X’s fuselage will not be made anytime soon.
  • Indeed, a 777X featuring an advanced aluminium-lithium fuselage with a composite wing makes sense in significantly trimming weight, thereby further improving the fuel burn performance of the aircraft. In addition, advanced aluminium-lithium (Al-Li) is a well understood technology that requires little to no modification in the production process and will not complicate the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification for the 777X. Put it simply, advanced aluminium-lithium technology is what Aspire Aviation‘s sources characterise as a “low-hanging fruit” that could be incorporated into the design and the production of the 777X very easily, while providing a considerable weight saving."

Aspire Aviation,    By Daniel Tsang
Since this Aspire article on February 9, 2012. Boeing has not been sitting still. However, what is really happening is the owners of  777-300 are getting anxious about the roll out of the A-350-9. This is a real poker hand being played by both companies.  Either the 777X invasion is not ready, or they are waiting for Airbus to commit to a winter campaign of the A-350, before Boeing has a great spring in Paris.
You can see at this point, either this is a Boeing bluff or an Airbus full house in play. I'm willing to speculate that Boeing is shooting the moon, as in the game of "Hearts", and is not sloughing off the Queen of Spades onto Airbus. 

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Re: The ABC's of Drafting and Passing (updated)


Airbus, John Leahy, in 2nd place for 2012


Re: The ABC's of Drafting and Passing

To: The Sober Few:

From: liftndrag:

Date: January 1, 2013


Dark Horse Rising At Selected Airports

787's Design Of The Year Photo

For the last ten years Boeing has been in Airbus' marketing wake by playing second seat in sales and production. Airbus has boasted about having the title of "World's Largest" Airplane Framer", for a solid string of ten years. Boeing has been drafting behind Airbus to gain extra momentum, and is now making a pass on Airbus as if is beating Airbus to the race track finish line. One thing that is of interest to me on this game, there is no finish line! The final winner is the one who doesn't wreck, and while the other wrecks by ceasing its operations. A Genuine Grudge Match!

The ABc's
A =Airbus
B = Boeing
c =Comac (A late entry in the Airplane Race, receives a lower case c as well as all others)

Orders
20122011201020092008200720062005200420032002











Airbus585141957427177713417901055370284300












Boeing1203805530142662141310441002272239251













To have the title and bragging rights of "World Largest Airplane Framer", a Manufacturer must win both Sales, and Production in the form of contracted, but not option sales, and actual deliveries in a given year. Winning both Sales and Delivery is the Gold Trophy event. To split the categories only defaults title back to the prior year absolute Champion.  Boeing is about to embark on on a three year tear silencing the "Euro Bravado" for awhile, as the two giants wrestle one another. I'm so tired of these terms, "World's Largest Airplane, World's Largest Sales, and World's Largest Producer," as if that means, they are the World's best!  If found in second place, the framer will see a Red Ribbon.  Second place has a no John Leahy Bragging Points factor! If he brags in 2013, please disregard and move on.

However, and thankfully, that being Bigger is not some off-the-hull contrived way of speaking, and does not make a manufacturer, the best. Just BIG-ger ! If six inches bigger (XWB) is important, then I don't know... Some years the other guy received more cash, even when moving less product.

Deliveries
20122011201020092008200720062005200420032002











Airbus**516534510498483453434378320305303












Boeing601477462481375441398290285281381

             ** Final numbers are not in, but Boeing will lead when compiled for 2012.

Why a Bi-annual number? Relevant for capturing Works In Processes number changes, where final productions and Pending Sales are added  in a relevant range of time.  This Illustrates a broader reflection of activity within each affected company. I have not added Airbus numbers for December and have not closed its 2012 for its final numbers(with its goofy accounting system they alaways seem to do better in December for some unexplained reason). This will affect  and change the 10 Year Moving Average and the Bi-annual report, but will not change the outcome or winner of standalone numbers for 2012. Boeing wins 2012! But is gaining ground on two other trend categories listed, where Boeing still finds itself behind in those assessments.

Bi-annual Numbers are startlingly close when adding together the last two years:

Years 2011+2012  Added

                     Orders                Deliveries
**Airbus            2004                   1050
   Boeing           2008                   1078
            
Dual2012      201120102009200820072006200520042003











Airbus





** 
               















Boeing

 *
*

Boeing will win "The Worlds Largest Airplane Framer" (WLAF) Gold Trophy for 2012, when final numbers are compiled.  Congratulations, Boeing!


*John Leahy, Airbus's Sales Chief, retains Bragging rights in 2006 and 2007, even though Boeing out sold Airbus substantially. Boeing was second place during split years, and the world had to endure Leahy's bigger is better Mantra (Bravado) another 5 years.
Yellow Journalism     Envy

Below is a brief explanation of why I use a "Ten Year Moving Average" for total sales and deliveries. This tells the relative progress position for each aircraft framer in search of WLAF over the years, that gives you a general view of trend towards who's gaining and who's losing on the WLAF status:

1. Orders that are made ten years ago and should be delivered within that span of time.
2. Cancellations and changes for orders are caught up and corrected in a ten year cycle,
3. A trend can be establish easier by looking at bottom line numbers.  The last three years Airbus has a moving average lead, but that is beginning to erode away to Boeing.

Airbus's 10 Year Moving Average establishes a trend gap of Airbus over Boeing in orders/deliveries data. Boeing's over-all gap numbers, behind Airbus are as follows:  (2012) 56,(2011) 93, and (2010) 10.  Boeing owned the early part of the decade. By 2015 Boeing may pass Airbus on the Moving Average scale which sets a composite trend for both orders and deliveries. The trend is now dipping towards Boeing for gaining substantial ground, and is only a 56 behind Airbus in the moving average for 2012. Additionally when all numbers are finalized for 2012, an update will show a better trend of the order/delivery numbers setting a final gap for 2012. Another set of numbers, not pictured, is moving average of backlog, which would better identify how increased productivity will affect the resources for delivery of an aspiring World's Largest Aircraft Framer.


**The final votes are not counted at end of this 2012 year, but Boeing appears to win the "Booby Prize as World's Largest Aircraft Maker".  I hope Boeing doesn't follow Leahy's crass slogan of "World's Biggest Everything", or if Boeing does, they have to go back into training, and lose some more inches off its own Boeing posterior.

This will be a short Memorandum of (Little) Understanding from "liftndrag", as we drag ourselves into 2013.  I want to cheer up the few who endeavor to read this blog, and thank you for your early interest. Note I am familiar with Boeing, and a North American, where I have a bias for Boeing. Don't let that discourage anyone from reading or commenting. I invite everyone to comment on my mistakes, gaffs and ingnorance.  Please weigh-in on what you know, and point out stuff as you can. I can take a correction or two, as that is the way I like to learn.  Its hard for me to like Airbus because of that bias, but I try not to lambastes the Company because they have a lot of devoted, skilled and brilliant contributors to its aircraft. I admire them for pushing the envelope, and what you all bring to the table for aviation.  Please report in from time to time, because it adds to all the reader's enlightenment.  I feature Boeing, because I am closer to the source, and have friends who are well versed in what's going on, in their own public manner.  I have no top secret stuff here, just analysis, insight, and observations; from readings and statements.  All of you have a Happy New Year and enjoy any "Lift" I can give all the readers, and contributors this year. This is a blog, where No Dragging is Allowed!

cc: All your friends, associates, and enemies.