The old question comes about from what came first? The Chicken or the egg? Boeing's 797 program is about to answer that age-old question with the 797. It says it wants to know how big the market will be for the 797 before it builds said aircraft. The other side says if we build it they will come thus expanding the market so the how big question is a moot point. The never-ending paradox defines Boeing's conundrum. We won't build until we know how big the market will be and the market won't know how big until Boeing makes first 797 delivery, or if it will buy more than Boeing's predictions. The best Boeing case scenario should of have been to keep quiet on the subject in case it's a nogo.
Boeing has climbed too far down that rope for it to climb back up from where it started. Boeing is overcommitted to an uncertain program to back off the 797. Its chicken has a white meat crowd following, and then a wings group who like its eggs easy over. Both groups want to have control of program costs most of the time. Boeing is well positioned to take a roll of its airplane development dice suffering a win-win outcome, and that's what Boeing was positioning itself for in the first place. This chicken is more apt to fly than lay an egg. The risk is Boeing fails to meet 797 expectation and can't recover its trip to the fence rail.
All in all the 797 has gone way past the end of a serviceable 797 rope and it will have to launch before it lays an egg.
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