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Tuesday, June 12, 2018

How Long Is The 797 Vision?

The 797 idea may have started before the 757 stopped productions during the year 2004.  Boeing shelved the middle of the market concept when there was no 757 replacement revealed to the public. It had its hands full with the 787 and other models of 777 and the Max. It was a running battle with Airbus and airplane supremacy. The time has come where years of engineering with other programs and the now apparent 797 program has occurred.  It was stated by another aviation journalist that it takes 10 years to build a clean sheet design before it is delivered. Counting back fourteen years may have signaled a back room engineering design had already hatched for a 797. It depended on the 787, and the 737 Max to make it happen.

A 797 has been a WIP for at least five years as it gathers technology developed by all Boeing's commercial aviation programs. Its been the last three years Boeing has consulted with its customers for the perfect NMA that would fill a 4,000 plane gap between the Max and the 787. Ten years may be a correct estimation for a clean sheet and Boeing has already checked off many of those years pondering its NMA program. It has reached the point of just freezing the concept and announcing the launch customers.  Boeing is further down the launch road than pundits may like to think out of some deduction and logic.

A 797 launch is going to happen sooner rather than later. It has unused plant space or property space for building an immense 797 facility. It makes sense to move the Everett 787  production to its own sole source facility in Charleston, SC. The SC facility can build all the 787 types by expanding on its vast acreage, at that site with more cement and steel buildings erected. The supplier system is in place in SC and Boeing has proven it can build production space very quickly, as in under 18 months. 

The 797 Jumpstart will occur in the Northwest as the 797 is refined into a flying copy while additional 787 production comes with building all the 787's at Boeing's Charleston, SC site. It can and it will deliver 14 787's a month from that site. It has already proven the low country can do what it is tasked to do.

However, Boeing-Everett is up to designing, testing, and building the 797 under a very close watch from its expert engineers who are experienced in the new plane programs. A natural logic would be for having the 777X, 747F, and 767F-Military all occur in Everett, WA. The 797 could and will fit in the production within this Northwest location. It's a natural decision to fold in the 797 on its available floor space since it became open when surge lines evaporated and other programs wound down. 

Boeing has space and has very capable people anchored in the Northwest to do this program starting from its already and current three-year-old design points, reducing its ten years required for a first delivery clean sheet down to seven years, and ending with first delivery in 2025. 

Boeing doesn't have to retest the copyrighted technologies it developed over the last 15 years. It only has to integrate those technologies into the 797. It is what Boeing already has available without using risky testing processes or using any untested assumptions since those technologies were already de-risked from all other programs mentioned from Boeing's family of aircraft.

The unknown 797 engine program is the NMA's biggest hurdle and it seems logic will put Boeing into accepting a 50,000 thrust engine from GE/Safran as its sole 797 source engine offering. Boeing would not improve its market with a dual engine maker choice for its customers. The 797 stands alone and an Airbus counter would most likely be developing an A321 off-shoot with A Rolls Royce engine at the forefront. 

The development engine time at this point from a clean sheet is about five years. The Boeing engine supplier has been working on an engine concept over the last three years. At a launch customers announcement, an offered engine will already have thousands of hours run through its casings.

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