Friday, February 2, 2018

Today UPS Bought 14 More 747-8F's


All along Boeing contended the life of the 747 depended on the freight business not passenger service for its future. Today, UPS helped the Boeing claim along buy cashing in its 14 options for the 747-8F. In 2016,  UPS ordered a staggering 14 747-8F's optioning for 14 more of its type. Today was a firming day for those option as the news reported. Whether it happened in January or February 2018 will soon be revealed in Boeing's monthly orders and delivery updates on its website.

What this means?  Is the topic of this short discussion. Boeing has factory capacity for four more years at a 6 a year 747 production rate. All those engineers can now update resumes and contribute towards its unemployment accounts before any near term lay-off occurs which now seems a distant thought on the factory floor. Boeing has four more years for finding more freight customers for its 747-8F's. Over time, the cycle will bend towards Boeing's freight business direction again as the world's economies ebb and flow the stock markets.

Boeing has bought time for its other programs. It has 747 engineers in its hip pocket for anything pending on future accomplishing. Plant capacity is held in reserve as it builds 28 more 747's. A call will be made by 2020 for launching something new as an always improving business model expands its portfolio towards a 777-10X or a 797 NMA. Booth those concepts are now waiting the competition out. It won't go first like it did with the 787. Airbus blinked with a A321-LR. But it is also holding cards as long as it wants as customer buy the A321 in a continuing flow. An observation for any gambler, is timing, once the horses are loaded at the gate. 

Boeing wants an Airbus A321 LR in test mode before it launches an NMA.  Airbus wants its rendition of an NMA springing from an A-330 down sizing, which will be drawn in a hurry going to to market as a Boeing beater. 

Its rapidly turning into a tit for tat airplane building world as Boeing spits at Bombardier and hugs Embraer in a fit. In this slug fest, "a customer" wants to end up as a winner with better products and mechanisms for beating its own competition. The passenger just wants a seat that can hold 190 lbs in comfort. The 17" wide affair is for third world sensibilities, where blue collar working travelers are faced with recline issues and no wifi. The shoulder roll works only for 90 minutes in a 10 hr flight. Colored lighting is a small benefit for contortionist who insist on flying to Singapore and back to LA.