Boeing’s When-iffy Year

Boeing has captured world aviation attention with the recent announcements. Orders for its 787 are mentioned in a barrage of announcements. Forty here eight there and another four for good measure are recent topics. In all it amounts to 52 787’s mentioned as orders coming from Turkish Airlines, Malaysia’s MAB, and Japan Airlines respectively.  

These are airlines no one was talking about until this last week. Those announcement are more smoke than fire but it indicates a fire is smoldering in the wide body world of orders. The pace will quicken at year’s end where Boeing is keen to mark its order book up with confirmed orders. It almost guarantees a plus 100 wide body order year depending on when paper-work is signed over to Boeing. Counting the current 82 gross orders and adding 52 more makes for 134 gross ordered 787’s. Becoming one of Boeing’s best 787 order years since counting started for the model.

Boeing 787 O/D Program Recap YTD 2017
Year	Yearly Net Orders	Annual Delivery	Back-Log
2004	52	0	52
2005	197	0	249
2006	99	0	348
2007	269	0	617
2008	59	0	676
2009	24	0	700
2010	25	0	725
2011	45	3	767
2012	42	47	762
2013	181	64	879
2014	50	114	815
2015	99	135	779
2016	58	137	700
2017	78	98	680
Total	1278	590	688

The net total for 2017 stands at 78 units having 82 gross orders. Adding another 52 units by year's end would put 2017 in great order year company. Even if all the recently announced 787 orders were not finalized by year’s end, it would be a very solid 787 year with a standing net 78 count.

The top six order years since 2004:

• 2005 -197
• 2006 -99
• 2007 -269
• 2013 -181
• 2015 -99
• 2017-(134?)

If 2017 finalizes its pending order intents of 52, then a 134 order year would become Boeing’s fourth largest order year since the program’s inception. But having only 78 orders ranks it as the sixth most productive order year. It was a Winging It's estimation earlier this year, Boeing would have 50 orders coming in from all the various customers.

As Noted by Winging IT March 18, 2017, “Boeing should go plus fifty 787 orders in 2017”.

At that time of year Boeing only booked seven of its 787’s and it now stands at seventy-eight.

Having a plus 130 order ceiling is a possibility and will not impede its 2018 order book. The potential has been identified by Boeing and 2018 too may go beyond a 100 unit order year for the 787. This is why Boeing is going for a 14 a month pace by 2019 because its forecasting and own information is bearing out that is was correct decision.