Thursday, August 17, 2017

A Seeking Alpha Response Leads to This Chart

Recently, Seeking Alpha answered a "Winging It" question with a very valid question.

Question from Winging It: 

The netting order changes are hard to follow. Any Ideas on how its year's cancellations or conversions are found within the Boeing website in detail? Thanks again for your reports?

His Answer:

Thank you for reading, Andrew. Conversions are almost impossible to follow. You basically have to know what airline X ordered and one day you will see that the order from airline X has been changed. Boeing only shows the cancellations by type on its orders and deliveries page. If you want to find out the changes you will have to save each months sheet and look for the differences.

Winging It Follow-up:

After reading his brief appreciated response, Winging It Blog writing began to think of how this may be done. Below is a rough draft chart attempting this exercise on filling in month by month reporting holes created by limited information from Boeing's website.

Please use this as a rough estimation on how the orders are documented as a running total until the end of the year. Since Boeing does not keep its notations longer than the next entry, Winging It must follow closely its entry as Boeing adds and reports them. 

Therefore, the chart below starts somewhere during the year and somewhere is July, 31 2017. A full year's tracking would be impossible at this time since Boeing owns its data and discloses pieces of the puzzle when an update to its website is made. 

Starting on August 15, Boeing's first notation for the chart is added.  The July 31, reporting is a net and gross number without detail of prior changes up and until that date. However, the first entry is from Boeing's August 15, 2017 data change reported from its website, which similar entries will be logged until the end of the year as posted by Boeing.

Take this report chart with the knowledge that all data has not been accounted for until the end of the year, since many transactions are in flux from customer preferences. However, is a close estimation going forward with an accurate gross and net totals provided by Boeing. The Chart is an attempt to interpret those those changes Boeing provides from week to week or when it chooses its report changes for its order book.

Fig. 1 Boeing Data Tracking Report: