Saturday, July 8, 2017

Boeing's Gross Order Campaign 2017 YTD Review

Boeing has gone halfway during 2017 and there are many more unanswered questions but from a positive outlook. It has out dueled Airbus into a substantial lead but it maybe not enough for this years campaign. The second half of the year will be reserved for some surprises for which it is hard to determine the outcome for either mega maker.

Boeing has netted about 381 orders as reported by its website, Airbus orders remain tepid at 203 net orders. The net effect comes from cancellations and conversion from one model to another. However, the gross count score card is illustrated below with various charts made by Winging It from Boeing's current data reports.

A gross number is a bell weather number suggesting the activity within the order book. A high gross number ratio to its net number indicates how robust the order book has become. The booking of 421 gross orders to 381 net orders can be interpreted several ways. Boeing's net-to-gross ratio is .90 where it indicates a high order book efficiency at this time.

The Airbus net to gross efficiency is .82 applied the gross count of 248 thus netting its 203 orders. The second observation is the total orders made during 2017, ignoring the cancellations or conversions to another model. The post Paris Airshow count is a telling story. It is well known Boeing had many conversions from the Max 8 over to the Max 10. Boeing received orders-commitments for 361 Max 10's. In that number were a great portion of conversions from other Max models going to the Max 10. Boeing, though lists its order book according to actual firm transactions so its netting effect of .90 is indeed a remarkably high ratio considering all of the Max 10 conversion transactions. Below is the YTD Gross Orders in figure 1.

Boeing has booked 421 orders so far this year. There are more opportunities remaining during the year and a net 600+ order year is within Boeing's reach. Airbus needs 400 more orders in the remaining six months to keep pace with Boeing's opportunities.

Below is the Boeing Order-Paris effect during the month of June:

Figure 2.

The 184 units were placed as orders and does not indicate net orders. If using the .87 ratio number, an expectation net number could be 161 units (when multiplying .87 times 184). The Paris Airshow results will take the remainder of the year or longer settling up all LOI, MOU and commitments adjusting the order book. The efficiency rate of .87 is just a number based on current order book performance. As an example the Max 10 had 361 total transactions in various stages. Not all will become firm orders, some already are finalized. However, using the theoretical .87 ratio number the 361 Air Show total could turn into 314 firm 737 Max 10's orders. So much can happen during any campaign. The success of any sales transaction is subject to customers financial condition or market changes, indicating anything could happen with changing the outcome. 

Below is the June order count by type:
  • 737-Max 104 units
  • 777-300ER 4 units
  • 777X   20 units
  • 787-Dreamliner 56 units
In total 184 units from the show sales were made concurrently with sales outside the show during the month of June, 2017.