Four Corners Of The Window Bullet Points
The announcement date is driven by demographics and statistics more than want. The demographic must must align with the stars. There must be at least two dozen "A" list airlines from the likes of Japan, England, and China. There must be some all Boeing customers and some split fleet customers in the announcement mix. A half dozen smaller airplane customers as well. Boeing is not there yet but is closing in on its customer objectives. The demographics are almost complete.
The statistical side of the equation consists of an ever moving target as the industry expands and contracts on a periodic basis. Boeing is looking for the statistical sweet spot. It announced a 5,000 unit need for the NMA over the next decades.
Plueger: ALC Quote: from Leeham
“For the Boeing product line, I think there is a gap. It’s probably fair [to say the Boeing gap is from the 737-8 to the 787-9].”
Does Boeing have to do the NMA?
“I think it’s an important step for Boeing. The issue is one of cost. With all the talk about NMA, what is really boils down to is price,” he said. “That will determine whether the airplane sells 5,000 units, or 3,000 or whatever. That’s something the engine manufacturers have to know pretty shortly.
“I think the whole effort can be produced at a point that makes sense.”Timing is the art of the deal. Coming to market at the right moment can optimize the affect it has on its competitors. The three Bears story book account says it best. The market is too cold, the market is too hot and the market is just right. Airbus has its resources hog tied for the next five years and are in the too cold soup bowl. Boeing has its own problematic resource drain with the 737 MAX , 777X through the 787-10 implementations. Therefore, the time is right when two or more programs are completed. The 737 MAX started delivery, and the 787-10 is in flight testing. When its flight testing is complete and first delivery of the 787-10 is made, Boeing should shortly announce the NMA depending on 777X risk retirement.
Technology is locked up in R&D and design. The 787 program made many new technological concepts a reality in the wide body. Boeing does not have to re-invent, it just has to implement. The NMA will certainly mold into the Boeing family of aircraft using everything paid for from the Boeing money pit out of the deferred cost monkey barrel. What the New Medium Aircraft will add to the techno pile will be announced at the "Announcement".
As Plueger, from ALC, stated earlier (paraphrased), the NMA announcement will come from what makes sense and not sooner. What makes sense is the opportunity window that develops from the above bullet points. All elements pointed out above have positioned itself closer to that window of announcement than ever before.
Therefore, a combination of things need to occur before a formal announcement and all are driven by time itself. It won't be two years nor five years. It will be when the soup is just right and no sooner nor later. The key is everything is almost ready to go and is just waiting for the go order from Boeing's art department.