Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Paris Airshow, By Some Numbers Snapshot

A snapshot is a point in time frozen by some happening. The ever evolving changes at the Paris airshow makes it a moving target. The Winging It aim is often wild. Below is a composed picture of what was known at some time since this morning. A negative number suggests a transfer from a prior period order into a new Airshow order going from one model to another in a purchase announcement. 

Not all data is verified nor could it be accurate since so much is going on throughout the event. Various news sources often report in error as well and researching those articles becomes a difficult task. Exampled by unclear reports of 50 aircraft for 1.25 billion the editor misses the continuity of 50 aircraft going for 1.25 billion. There are errors in the news reporting often leading to confusing data.

Winging It doesn't know who is right and who is wrong with Airshow numbers, so it must wait until the show is done and follow company reports for orders books. Below is such a snapshot without airplane verification which will come later. Anyways, its an attempt to see Boeing's order footprint at the show where the numbers are mostly correct. What is missing are airplane order conversion numbers as prior orders for one model converted to another such as in the Max 737-8 going to a Max 737-10 order. 

This is where the primary problem of reporting accurate numbers for this show. The other problem is a definition of MOU vs Commitment and what does it really mean when considering who is buying what and when.

A "commitment" is probably a letter saying, "if we buy an airplane it will be a Boeing 737-Max-10 sometime. See SpiceJet and Lion Air commitments below for further analysis. They are Boeing customers but are not yet ready to put ink to paper until further notice until Boeing negotiations are complete. A commitment in this case is strong as a MOU. Some commitments could be pie in the sky notoriety at the show. 

An "MOU" is a memorandum which is a legally binding promise stating, "we will buy #nth 737-Max-10 during 2017 at the time final purchase contracts are signed". It's all grey water flowing through the show and bragging about what is going on is just bragging about the muddy drinking water.

A "purchase" is golden and in the books only to be backed out of through exchange of compensation along with the appropriate ensuing lawsuit. See the Qatar purchase as it is the end of a long commitment process after much consideration for its fleet composition, routes and airline purposes in a changing market. The 20 Max 8 started its order completion journey long ago from a commitment status.

I would expect all MOU's to turn into a purchase by year's end and the commitment will dangle until eternity or until the airline makes enough money to buy what it wants or needs. The purchase conclusion is gold in the bank. See the CDB MOU order below. it is a case of many moving parts considering converting from model to another, pricing and opportunity within a limited time frame. CDB MOU has set goals and objectives for completing the "deal" yet to be worked out but it is a go baring a financial meltdown. 

Below is the convoluted and inaccurate chart of the Boeing show from many unreliable news sources for which all claim reliability?

Boeing Aircraft numbers start of day 2

The negative number above represent a conversion from SpiceJet on the Max 8 column coming from converting 20 of the Max 8's into Max 10's. There are other conversions of this nature but not validated at this time. The values from converting have not been factored as of yet.

After all the disclaimers and apologies, Boeing has to date about 377 Boeing frames in purchase play for about 52.21 billion at list prices for which the remainder of the year will whittle down a majority of these MOU's and Commitments in to a purchase. 

Boeing should meet its guidance this year having already netted 208 frames for all types before the show. It has six more months and Dubai to meets its order guidance. A net number would include cancellations and conversions from the announced total announced during the Airshow.