Saturday, May 20, 2017

Trudeau: "Don't cut off your nose to spite your face" Policy

A reckless game of chicken is played with Boeing on one hand and Canada on the other hand. Trudeau, Ca. PM canceled the Lockheed Martin F-35, then he talked Boeing into submitting a plan for its new and advanced CA-18's in an interim replacement plan for its aging CF-18 "Old" Hornets. Then Boeing vigorously came out from its commercial arm objecting to the Canadian Government involvement supporting its Bombardier scheme when entering into the commercial US aviation markets.

Boeing's objection caused a Canadian response which threatens both the Canadian defensive air shield and the Boeing-CA-18 Hornet deal. All assumed Canada has studied the situation before jumping at a rebuke of Boeing's defense division. It has progressed to a point where Canada must go elsewhere for fleet renewal for its fighter aircraft if it maintains a staunch position. A Euro deal would cause a tremendous retooling of its air command with using Typhoons or other such European fighter aircraft. A move like that would keep Canada compliant with NATO while snubbing American War Complex it had committed to earlier on in this decade.

Trudeau is windmill tilting at this point in his quixotic gesture towards both Boeing and Lockheed at the same time.

What will happen is a guess but here is that guess. Canada wants a lower F-35 price and by delaying Boeing it may get the price it needs. Using the threat of going elsewhere for a military fleet renewal gives Canada leverage with both of the two American manufacturers. The US government will step in with two options for Canada. One buy an American fighter or two go fish in Europe while the US reduces its military investments with Canada. Trudeau will have to choose, once the gauntlet is thrown down. The F-35 has ample orders already and it doesn't need a Canadian deal anyways. If Canada were attacked the US would come with its F-35's anyways defending North America so thinks Trudeau. 

However, this assumption maybe flawed where the US would come en mass with its F-35's. A very large bill would be attached for any American/Canadian defensive actions. Trudeau is over playing his hand and Trump may call him out on his gamesmanship. Any call out harms the relationship between the two nations. The guess comes full circle with face saving moves. Trudeau got elected because he stood up and now he is drifting towards a Canadian calamity because he can't back down and buy the F-35. The US has to make an offer he can't refuse. Things change and his first stance no longer applies as the F-35 program has morphed itself into a Canadian compliant deal. What he ran on no longer applies. A Boeing deal is a stop gap order supporting its aging fleet. The US will have to help Canada assimilate the F-35 program as if it were an extended wing of the North American defense pact. Canada wants more than just buying into the F-35, it wants the whole tamale.