Thursday, May 4, 2017

Predicting The Weather Is Easier Than Predicting 787 Sales

Its been a long held opinion using the Farmers Almanac is better than a long term weather report. There is no Farmers Almanac feature for predicting Boeing 787 sales for 2017. The wrong person to ask is an overly optimistic Boeing Neophyte like Winging It tries to become. The purpose of the blog is an aviation blog having a Boeing emphasis. Only Airbus referencing is used as a backdrop for the task at hand for enthusiastically analyzing how Boeing will stay on top of the aviation market place.

Winging It pretends to be the Farmers Almanac for Boeing aspirations. Using the ground hog as a tool is not an option, but guessing is more accurate method  for coming to a positive conclusion about the 787 sales potential in 2017.

The score card to date includes 13 booked 787, 19 LOI's for 787-10 from Singapore and the recently announced 10 +10 787's from West Jet of Canada. The plus portion are options of course. The final tally comes to 42 of the 787's thus purchased during 2017 to date. Having completed four months of 2017 sales campaign bodes well for the Boeing wide body division when considering two big air shows are upcoming before the close of 2017. In June there is the Paris Airshow at Le Bourget airfield and then the November Dubai Air Show with several interesting potential purchases forming. 

The first one  that comes to mind is the Emirates Order hanging like a chad in a fall election cycle. It may not even happen until much later as the Wide Body market is "soft" in 2017. The primary reason from this prognostication of a potential Dubai no show for an Emirates order, is from low demand for wide body because of low fuel prices. Once people go to the fuel pump  and buy a gallon of gas north of $3.50 a gallon there will be a wide body rush with Emirates leading all the airline suitors. A problem for Boeing is that Airbus is in play with Emirates  and so far it is falling Boeing's way during the early part of 2017 and Emirates is using Airbus offer as leverage for making a Boeing order.

Singapore wants the 777X model to the tune of 20 units, which will/should be announced later this year. Now there are 62 wide body chips stacked so far with Boeing 2017 order book in a "Down Year". The upcoming 8 months should round Boeing out with over 100 wide bodies ordered by year's end.

The ground hog will go into hibernation before year's end and will not be used for any further aviation sales prognostications.  However, much to Winging It's immense knowledge, it can better the ground hog, Farmers Almanac, and Boeing's close to the vest stance with a robust trend announcement. It will snow in December in Canada. Other than that Boeing already has a good year going for it when considering its a down year. Even if it picks up another "Baker's Dozen" 787 orders it will be considered a great year rather than just a good year.