Thursday, March 30, 2017

Boeing's Book Setting Up 2017 For A Solid Year


These are preliminary numbers for Boeing orders taken during March and over-all first quarter 2017. After Boeing publishes its final March numbers, a clearer picture will determine that a typically slow first quarter is an encouragement for its 2017 order outlook. Below (in Figure 1.) is the unofficial March order synopsis until Boeing 1st quarter final numbers are posted. It is safe to say the single aisle division is well and alive and has anchored its presence for 2017.

Fig. 1

Above includes the March 28th Boeing Posting of 53 unidentified 737 orders and four 787's ordered. “Winging It”, understands at this point in time, it must assume orders are for 737 Max-8's and cancellations are for the 737-8 NG's. It also assumes 787 orders are for the -9's when used for model type adjustments. Boeing information made available will adjust Winging It Charts. Only a final accounting will validate an accurate activity for orders during 2017. This chart and others are used as guidelines and not actual firm numbers but is an excellent indicator of ordering activity. 

The summary reporting for first quarter to date 2017 has indicated a gross 110 737's were ordered and an additional 28 wide body orders were booked. However, adjustments are made for determining the net number using month by month tallies made within the above chart. During the first three months Boeing has cancelled an assumed 23 737-8's NG and another 5 of its 747-8's. The ending net numbers give an actual picture for first quarter. Boeing netted 87 single aisle 737's. This is where assumptions come into play until actual numbers are available. A cancellation of 737 NG's may be a conversion from a former order and added to the 737 Max 8 order tally by the same number. However, the net effect totals an 87 YTD single aisle order.

All netting effect flows into a cash value when using Boeing's latest price listing. Boeing has a net $9.66 billion single aisle booked value using its latest list price listing for its 2017orders. It also booked another 4.45 Billion from its wide body orders. This would include the 747 cancellations and the fifteen KC-46 orders during the quarter. In all the total net book value for 2017 is about $14.11 billion at list prices.

The data above is used in the tracking of Boeing vs Airbus, "World's Largest Airplane Maker" data. Winging It is waiting for Airbus' posted first quarter numbers from its website. To date, they have under performed its expectation, but it is known for posting after Boeing compiling its "last minute" orders and deliveries. I am expecting Airbus to come out with about 100 single aisle orders for its first quarter summary of its orders and delivery recap. It currently has a minus order status.