Giving your wings a lift in the "Aviation Renaissance".
Sunday, March 12, 2017
Boeing Must Formulate The 797 As An Added Value For Its Famliy of Aircraft Before Announcing.
"Udvar-Hazy isn't convinced that
Boeing has figured out the magic blend of price, performance and production
costs that will make the 797 a best-seller".
He has something in mind but doubts Boeing's resolve for such a project.
However, United Airlines begs to differ as it smugly acknowledges Boeing's
sales pitch honed in San Diego recently.
"What we've seen so far is very, very interesting to us," Andrew Levy,
United's chief financial officer, said in an interview. "We certainly hope
Boeing launches the airplane. We think there is a need for it."
Two leasing companies and one major later there is talk for which makes Airbus
anxious as it has more production dragons to slay in the mean time. Boeing
is looking for a three customers announcement for the 797. It will go deep
into the 787 play book when forming this aircraft. It will only offer a 797 if it can drain the Boeing money pit it built up from the 787 program by using the
bag of tricks Udvar Hazy was looking for in his statement.
Udvar-Hazey is crafty purveyor of aircraft and when he sees a gold nugget on
the ground he will fail to mention its existence while United airline is
an over anxious prospector liking the assay report beyond expectations. There
are others who could use this version of a 797 and many are the ones who make a
living over the Atlantic. Could this be the Ryan Air Silver bullet , or the
Norwegian Air Saturday Night Special? Winging It thinks so and Boeing has a
grasp of what its customer will do in this case. Udvar-Hazey is a middle man of
leasing and his customers are full of wide bodies ordered. Boeing would need to
make a business case directly to Udvar-Hazey's customers before he will show
his hand in favor of a Boeing concept. When the announcement shoe drops
for the 797 there will be a robust list of customers sweeping in for this
latest gold rush of airplane purchasing.
The A321-NEO taught Boeing a severe lesson on airplane gamesmanship. Boeing was
stalled over the 787 program by billions spent. Airbus stuck it to Boeing
with its largest single aisle making so many orders. Boeing has not recovered
since that NEO play. It is looking for redemption in the market place and the
797 could be that counter as the 787-8 or 737 Max family doesn't slam the A321
NEO out its airspace. The market place is rapidly moving towards the Middle of
The Market (MOM) without even Boeing sitting at the MOM table. A Boeing MOM would put
Airbus in a bind as it wrestles for market dominance in the Wide Bodied realm.
The A-380 is a sunk cost and a lost leader. The A-350 family failed to
over-take the 787 family of aircraft. In fact there is little room remaining in
this market since an Airbus passing lane has merged into the main traffic lane.
Boeing, after-all, will pull the MOM trigger under its airshow
smirk in 2017. It is competing in a market place dog fight with Airbus. Out of
spite it will announce this A321 NEO beater, and Boeing has already the customers who will
support this offering. China, an emerging market, and is geographically situated for
a five thousand mile duo aisle circle. The 787-300 was dropped because Boeing did not
have a Chinese foot print at that time. Another decade later, China needs a
higher density requirement where a single aisle is not well suited. Now there
are at least three more 797 customers in the mix coming from China. People like the "Scoot" people
need a MOM for its region flying in a 5,000 mile circle from Singapore.
Without even going to the Middle Eastern airline giants, a keen
market for the region's Euro-traveler has a definite use for a 797 MOM. India
to Paris is within its range as an example. Then Haikou (Hainan) to Sydney Australia
is also under 5,000 miles. A picture is unfolding for the airlines in a quest for a MOM having 240 seats going 5,000 miles while fitting in every terminal gate.
The driver stopping Boeing at this time is the list price or
deal price for such an aircraft. Boeing knows the production and R & D
costs of this paper example and it thinks it has it dialed-in costing to within
several million per copy. If and only if Boeing can find five hundred orders in
the initial market, it will be go time. This will be no moon shot as Udvar-Hazey
fears. It will be a high flying off the rack melding of everything already
spent building The Max, 787, and the 777X. The work is already set in Boeing's
concrete and it’s a matter of airplane execution at this point. In less than six
more months something greater will be said other than the United quote of "looking