Friday, February 19, 2016

Iran, The New Boeing Frontier

Recently Airbus jumped Boeing adding to annual orders reported by a 214 unit culmination through the auspicious occasion of Iran's desperate need for new aircraft. A US trade blockade has been lifted with Iran. Now, Boeing has received a license from the US government allowing it to trade with Iran. This Middle Eastern country has a pent up need for air travel and trade. Even though the 118 aircraft Airbus order pushed the Airbus book ahead of Boeing, for the time being, any Boeing swing back order has a long journey to go before it will catch up the Airbus/Iran deal.

Boeing and the US governance must meet a mutual understanding on what is allowed within this "permissive" condition. When it comes to buying, then any speculative thought will reach a climax for an Iranian order. The fact that Iran owns a very aged fleet of Boeing and McDonnell Douglas may suggest Boeing could top Airbus in the next order round with Iran.

Any Boeing/Iran deal during 2016 would involve Billions and Billions $US transacted. Iran needs wide bodies’ as well single aisle, even though it placed an Airbus order first. It ordered a half dozen A380's and it isn't done yet until Boeing's turn is complete concerning big aircraft. Iran has to compete with the oil region, as its foremost competitors fly a preponderance of 777's in its fleets or have also ordered 777X when it comes out. A rule thumb in the aviation, “competition starts as far away as its aircraft can fly”. The 777 can fly a long ways.

Prediction:
Iran will order a dozen 777X, two dozen 787, and 12 dozen Max. These of course will come forward over the next decade.