Monday, February 29, 2016

February Boeing 787 Progress

In figure 1. The program has taken its seasonal time-off reaching the current annual production accumulation of 17 during the first two months. While Boeing has booked only one 787 in 2016 to date, it has pushed out only 17-787's for this progress report. Though it is falling short of an established annual pacing which reached 135 during 2015, Boeing has set its target for 12 a month later this year. All things considered a mark of 140 units is possible for 2016 when delivering the 787.

Fig 1.

The figure below analyzes further, the 90 day moving average of only 8.67 per month reflecting a holiday malaise. The surprise is December's production sloughed off from 2014's December production of 18, 787's. In January of 2015 Boeing followed up with 7, matching January 2016 seven units delivered. In February, 2015 Boeing delivered only seven 787's, comparing with 10 during 2016. In total, for last year's (2015) in the same ninety day period, it delivered 32 787's. This year's effort only shows 26 units delivered during the same ninety days. A fall-off of only six. However, with a usual lumpy production flow during the end of year period, Boeing is reloaded for production and will reach twelve a month pace by this spring, and it will absorb the 787-10 start-up without missing production goals for the year.

Fig 2.

Annual deliveries (fig 3) outlook reflects the aforementioned 90 day moving average analysis and an annual summary is not practical at this time.

Fig 3.

The by-model shift has occurred with a 787-9 emphasis. The 787-8 production has waned and the 787-9 model has taken-over the production floor with an intensity needed for reaching 12 units a month no  matter what type is on the floor. The 87 787-9 number will increase by almost another hundred units during 2016 as it has become the dominate build rate and is decked to the nines.

Fig 4.

The production backfill represented by Fig. 5, illustrates the transition from the 787-8 to the 787-9 in process. The production load has swung to the 787-9 with 27 units in process as compared with 19 of the 787-8's in the line. By next quarter the number will have a more distinct preponderance for the 787-9 on the production line. 

Fig 5.