Saturday, February 28, 2015

Qatars A350 finds Ground Hog Day

So much so, its lead henchman, Al Baker is on a business trip today making cover for its not yet delivered 2nd A350.

Arabian AeroSpace:

"Qatar’s CEO Akbar Al Baker is in Berlin next week for the ITB, the world’s largest travel and tourism show where is expected to reveal initial operating data for the A350 and to advertise the arrival of the second aircraft. - See more at:

http://www.arabianaerospace.aero/qatar-set-to-speed-up-service-entry-for-delayed-second-a350.html#sthash.0LZnnU0N.dpuf

It was announced for February 17, 2015 delivery but in Boeing-esque style the plane simply is not ready for Qatar today. Should someone worry, "Nah"? Its built and has tires to roll on and fly. Akbar Al Baker is doing his due diligence at ITB.

Let me give homage to the ground hog on February's last day. "Haven't we been here before?" The do-over is an uncanny salute for the groundhog's  big day. Airbus has two A350 out in over two and a half months. Very Boeing like during its own last three months during 2011 when it delivered three 787's amongst all the mad dashing on the Everett plant floor. The French version is letting Al Baker go to IBT with a shrug. Let the Airbus sales team unleash a barrage of hyperbole. As Qatar face slapped Lufthansa a few times when it remarked, "The Qatar A350 is better than Lufthansa stuff". "Hey wait a minute Lufthansa ordered some A350's too." Its Airbus IBS going on here so take an antacid Qatar and go to IBT.

The operating data is what brought the conferees to IBT. Its how Al Baker couches the data that will cause Boeing some response. Al Baker is not necessarily deferring over to Airbus as a sole fan for the A350 but he too likes center stage so he has purposed the A350 in some of its most glamorous locations like Frankfurt which is very near where Lufthansa operates. Coincidence, I think not, Because he has already taken exception to Lufthansa fleet by calling inferior to Qatar's fleet having the A350 as the example in the Lufthansa market. Interesting who this premier Middle East carrier is going after in a market segment with such language towards a competitor. Its not anti Boeing but a anti Lufthansa sentiment. Could it be over all those 777X's Lufthansa ordered? Or is it something else up Al Bakers sleeve?

The whole A350 delivery delay and IBT meeting will smoke out more details concerning this Qatar chapter. Its more much ado about nothing marketing in play. A larger game board comes out on how much loads into aircraft interiors. The Boeing efficiency vs Airbus customer space is in play as Airbus says it can stuff the bus with more passenger amenity. Saying its greater than the 787 family of Aircraft. Qatar went with the 787-8 early even though it was not an aircraft suitable for Qatar space grandeur. Now they have the A350 which has started bumping the Boeing 787's over to less glamorous routes. What all this means is Qatar pride focuses on the best show in the air. Not necessarily the best airplane for the task. However, the 777-X has not played out in the market place which would be more suitable for Qatar sensibilities where Qatar ordered 50 of its type.

Friday, February 27, 2015

Boeing's 100 787 Order Book in 2015 Preview (update*)

It will be the 12 Days of Christmas Theme song playing all through 2015 as Boeing cleans up house on the 787 order book. Remember Qantas has 50 787-9 dangling for its corporate fit and finish. They are waiting for check list items occurring in the Qantas things-to-do book before we go gonzo and order those options.
  • Profitability on long range range routes Check. 
  • Operational change management completed when wages are settled for the long haul time period (not checked but close). 
  • Finally all inefficiencies identified are fixed (profitability is a good indicator those items are getting checked). 
So here is a brief dreamer 12 days of Christmas wish book headcount:
  • 2 Booked already in 2015
  • 50 Qantas 787-9 options leaning
  • 8 Teen Old Maids partnered (Ethiopian)
  • 2 Teen Old Maids  partnered (Air Austral)
  • 4 Tahiti Nui 787-9's almost booked
  • 3 ANA 787-10 order to be signed on.
  • 14 787-9s from Spain’s Air Europa 
Total in play = 83 787 orders $20 billion (US) estimated based on best information sales pricing

10 Terrible Teens 100 million each discounted         1    Billion
 2  already booked about 200 million each                   .5 Billion
68 787-9 at 250 million each                                    17    Billion
 3 787-10 about 350 million each                               1.4 Billion

Total dollars in play for noted purchases in place is about  $20 Billion US
        
Seventeen to go to go by Boeing sales teams. They could make it to 100 EOY 2015 with some or little effort. In fact they may exceed 100 787 ordered in 2015 by dozens or more.

  • Turkish Airlines Wants some wide bodies either from Boeing or Airbus.
  • Emirates ponders for more 787-10's or A350-900's. ( I'm betting on Boeing)

This could cinch up about 150 787's ordered for 2015.

Those are critical Boeing battles, which will tell investors an insightful story. A Boeing victory on those two customers will establish a Boeing bragging point over Airbus.

What is intriguing is the 8,055 mile number Boeing has hung out there for the 787-10 flight legs. This will turn some orders over to Boeing away from Airbus. It can make it to all the existing money routes, which is the number one questions from all its potential customers. Can it go to the Middle East or the Orient from here? "Yes it can!" Boeing answers.

Here are prior years 787 year order numbers:

2012 - 41
2013 -183
2014 - 65
Total=289

Average = 96 per year booked during the last three years.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Least We Forget, It's The 787-10 Coming

The daily research and Winging It Team remains, grabbing  appealing news articles, and commenting on the content. Even though the focus is usually on the stock market darlings, the 787-8 and 787-9, let us not forget the 787-10 and its promising features. So as this blogging tradition uses a duo battle of words ensuing for your consideration and aircraft sensibility. The journaling leading this dance is Aerospacetechnology.com. Please refer to the actual article with the link provided below. Its advertisers and "Aerospace Technology" will appreciate your visit as it has done all the heavy lifting on this article. My commentary is for your own background opinion forming.

Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner, United States of America

Boeing 787-10

"Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner, the latest and longest member in the Boeing 787 family of commercial aircraft, was officially launched at the 2013 Paris Air Show in Le Bourget, France, in June 2013.
The new Dreamliner can reach a distance of 12,964km, covering more than 90% of the world's twin-aisle routes. It is expected to be 25% more fuel efficient compared with other aircraft of similar size.
It is currently being designed at the Everett facility in Washington and final assembly is scheduled to begin in 2017 in North Charleston, South Carolina, US. First delivery is expected in 2018."

12,964 kilometers is about 8,055 miles. I don't know if that represents a full load or an average load aircraft. The claim of 25% improvement from fuel economy over last generation models of like size is remarkable. It does not state whether that is the 767-300 ER or another Boeing 777-200 type aircraft for the improvement comparison. It sounds like I have to do more work on that number.

They are also suggesting a single barrel segment eliminating joining barrels in the main passenger area. I would assume the wing box area is inclusive of the single barrel part of the airplane. Hence the necessary forming is required in the Charleston facility as no special transportation vehicle exist by air for that length of a part. I would also assume a separate nose nose and tail module will be freighted to the Charleston facility. The conclusion: there will be three sections and two joins for Boeing's longest 787.

Orders and deliveries

"The new Dreamliner can reach a distance of 12,964km."
All Nippon Airways (ANA) placed a $1.4bn order for three 787-10 Dreamliners in January 2015. GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS), meanwhile, placed a $2.9bn order for ten aircraft in September 2013.
Air Lease Corporation (ALC) has also finalised a $9.4bn order for 30 787-10 and three 787-9 aircraft.
Boeing received commitments for 102 787-10 aircraft from five customers at the 2013 Paris Air Show. These include 30 aeroplanes from Air Lease Corporation, ten from GE Capital Aviation Services, 12 from International Airlines Group / British Airways subject to shareholder approval, 30 from Singapore Airlines and 20 from United Airlines.

The 787-10 has significant orders as it will launch and it will turn head. I would expect laminar flow technology inclusive, in addition to the other improvements mention in the article. Future orders will be significant once it proves its worth during testing and numbers can be shared with customers interested in the 787-10.  Important notations are two numbers, the 25% fuel improvement and the 90% of routes are within its claimed range. The computer modeling from Boeing has been spot on throughout the 787 project. These numbers won't be a Boeing boast. In fact a sub category of "long range city pairings with high density traffic", may be closer to 100% after further review. The 787-9 will clean up on all the long range city pairings with any passenger density at all with 100%. This makes the 787-10 the prodigal son coming home and completing the family.

Design features

"The aircraft incorporates a unique one-piece composite barrel and all-composite wing structure integrating small fairings and raked wingtips.
The single-piece barrel construction effectively eliminates all longitudinal skin splices for reducing weight and maintenance costs. It also avoids fuselage lap joints, doublers and skin overlap, resulting in lesser maintenance inspections.
Simple pivot trailing-edge flaps feature fewer parts and ensure much smaller flap-track fairings, resulting in efficient lift-to-drag characteristics for reductions in fuel consumption and costs.
787-10's wing structure, made of composite materials such as carbon laminate and carbon sandwich, provides a higher aspect ratio, which, combined with efficiency-enhancing raked wing tips, enables the aircraft to achieve a maximum cruise speed of up to Mach 0.85 with less fuel consumption."
I mention before laminar flow technology as a 1% er efficiency improvement. The 25% is real on the computer and will be better during testing phase. This is the Ultimate Game Changer (UGC) for those seeking profits when buying aircraft. The word best describing this phenomenon is a 787-10 "Urgency" purchase.

787-10 technical specifications

The aircraft will have a cross section of 574cm, wing span of 60m, length of 68m and height of 17m. Its maximum take-off weight will be 252,651kg and total cargo volume will be 175m³, which is 41% and 13% more than that of the 787-8 and 787-9, respectively.
In standard configuration, it will accommodate 323 passengers, which is 33% more than the capacity of 787-8 and 15% more than 787-9.
In US passenger terms, its 225 inches wide, wing span 196 feet, and 223 feet long. other dimensions. I need a calculator!

Cabin details

"The Boeing 787-10 will be powered by either Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 or GE Aviation GEnx-1B engines."
A spacious and comfortable cabin, with large dimmable windows, adjustable soft LED lighting and a facility to introduce clean and healthy air, can be found on the aircraft.
It also includes spacious stowage bins and quieter interior. The typical seating arrangement includes 247 economy seats, 58 business seats and 18 first-class seats.
The adjustable windows allow passengers to regulate the intensity of light entering from outside. They are fitted with an electrochromic dimming system, which changes the tint of the window from completely transparent to fully dim.
The comfortable feel of the cabin is enhanced by soft LED lighting. This can be adjusted as per the flying modes such as boarding, flight, relaxing, serving meal, sleeping and pre-landing.
Cabin altitude is pressurised to a maximum level of 6,000ft to 2,000ft lower than most other aircraft.

Engine

The Boeing 787-10 will be powered by either Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 or GE Aviation GEnx-1B engines. The Trent 1000 engine will generate a maximum thrust of 78,000lbf, whereas the GEnx-1B will provide a maximum take-off thrust of 76,100lbf.
GEnx engines include high-pressure compressors and twin-annular pre-swirl combustors, as well as lightweight and durable composite materials. They feature 3D aerodynamics in the low pressure turbine and are the first to use Ti Aluminide blades.

Conclusion: Everything right about the 787-9 is stuffed into the 787-10 leaving a lot of weight behind. The 787-10 transitions the market gap from 787 to 777X. Continental routes could go high density on lower fuel demands. Trans Oceanic market has another great tool for moving vacationers to preferred destinations. The 787-10 is not just a "Stepchild", it is the first born "Stepchild" or the UGC, completing the 787 family. I believe I will wait in vane for the 737 to 787 stepchild found in the down slot, and I will shelve its name "Goldenliner for later".


Monday, February 23, 2015

The Cause and Effect Of Low Fuel Cost

The stock market is taking a pause on Boeing stock value. The primary culprit is lower fuel cost. Customers get to inhale during the Lower Fuel Price Period  (LFPP). This is how it works for those who have not considered Boeing's stock valuation effect. The LFPP represents about one third the cost of a ticket to anywhere. This is not a spot condition limited to a segment market. It is universal to all markets in the world. It is a holistic influence to an airline's operational cost efficiency. The ticket seat ticket price doesn't fall immediately. As in the price of gasoline pumped into a car, the per gallon price drop comes somewhat later and rises faster as it increases. This trade phenomena occurs in the airline industry. A lower fuel price causes a somewhat delayed lower ticket price for its customer. Expect a rapidly climbing ticket price when Jet A increases to its former place in the fuel market.

The question under review in the stock market is what happens to airline pricing above the Jetway transactions? How will they replace old equipment or expand fleets in a down fuel market? Wall Street expects a lower stock valuation from lower Boeing sales of its aircraft. The cause and effect of all this does lead to a sluggish purchasing plan by airlines from fundamental transitions from high fuel cost to low fuel cost. This transition however is only temporary until the effects of low fuel is normalized through competitive market forces catching-up.

Variables driving the travel market from low fuel prices brainstorming session:

  • Low airline ticket price is the source of all changes in Balance sheet dynamics
  • Low fuel price affects lower operational costs
  • Lower fuel prices affects a positive profit margin initially
  • Slowly adjusting lower ticket prices affects by shrinking the profit margin slowly.
  • Increased  passenger numbers increase Revenue in total but not the revenue per passenger rate.
  • Using old equipment strategy works until fuel prices bottom out and start rising again.
  • Buying new equipment is deferred until competitive pricing bottoms and then starts rising.
  • A formula from data can demonstrate cause and effect of these conditions.
  • Buying new equipment began in 2006 when fuel was a much lower price indicating market balance.
  • Market balance dictates purchasing new equipment that was delayed during fuel price dump. 
As one can see many factors will cause and effect an airline's purchasing regimen. I didn't even start with cash flows or leasing options, and I didn't consider many other operational and competitive route changes affected by low fuel prices. So the point I will make are those same ones made during the study of economics.

The Market will find its supply and demand equilibrium when a major component changes drastically such as fuel prices. Temporary anomalies will occur during a period such as the LFPP. One such anomaly is a temporary freeze on purchases. However, that builds up pressure for additional purchases outside usual stream of new equipment. If an airline doesn't order because they are playing the balance sheet opportunity from the LFPP, then it will have to make up ground later when the opportunity passes.

A second look, tells something on the Boeing backlog. It is rapidly shrinking and airlines can't use that for cover. The backlog was so far out, they were hesitant to get in line with an order. The backlog opportunity is opening up as it shrinks. Airlines need to get on the books even though it is in the LFPP. Market forces are squeezing down on delaying purchases, and using old equipment during this LFPP. In spite of the fuel price reduction, 2015 should be a good year for the Boeing order book in the second half of the year.

Sunday, February 22, 2015

240 787 Delivered It's Reorder Time

Back in the day, about two years ago, "Winging It", predicted 2015 as a 787 reorder resurgence. One reason is for the extinction of glitches. A second reason is the reduction of the 787 order book. The 787-8 is 50% delivered in just three years. Another three years the 787-8 will be completely open for airline fleet expansions, within an airlines five year plan.. What Boeing has is production slots available for the 787-8 in reasonable fashion. One Airline who sits on its heals can option in rather quickly, when it identifies its fleet expansion opportunities. It sits just outside the China market. It is centered within the Asia region. The 787 design is a handmade design for the region. Who is it?

Better question:

Does Qantas have the nerve? If they do they need to convert its 787-8 options into a game changing order sooner rather than later, because Boeing has gone over the manufacturing hump. Boeing no longer has the supply chain uncertainty, nor does the errant battery problem come into any sales meeting conversations. Its main selling point is 20% better fuel, and it really works as advertised. You the buyer get to pick the colors. Qantas should not, or better stated, "will not" drop the ball unless they really want to remain an Icon of Australia's past, but it is not a standard in the world of travel. Unless Qantas has a big vision!

Qantas has:

Criky: 

Qantas versus Growth revives aviation-trade policy issues

"The key to that good news could be a decision to exercise some of the bargain priced options it has held since late 2005, when it first ordered or optioned up to 115 Boeing 787 Dreamliners."

"At the moment one of the key disadvantages for a “little” or “cautious” Qantas, no matter the quality of those arguments, is that Qantas is seen in trade and tourism quarters as attempting to stand in the way of this growth, saying “Not until I’m ready”."

The problem here is whether Qantas is a serious player in this moment of aviation history. Do they risk profits from lower fuel prices on a fleet full of the 787's? They obviously don't have those 115 on paper anymore, but do have a sizable chunk with Boeing's sales options. Just like a crime drama on TV its all about mode, means and opportunity before pulling the trigger on an order. Qantas has the means and the opportunity, but are they not motivated, or just scared to pick the phone up and ask for a meeting with Boeing sales department?

I "think" , they are ready during 2015 for making a move. The stars have aligned as risk on the 787 has abated. The performance numbers have been substantiated. Everybody says 20% less fuel needed for every NM flown. Qantas needs a mixed bag of tricks with the half and half order of 25 787-8s and 25 787-9 and maybe 10 more 787-10's. This will certainly make Qantas a force in the region. They can start receiving aircraft in five years. They actually need an order placement or they will slide further down the airline final approach slope in its history.

A change is in process for Qantas. Status quo doesn't work at this point. Even though they have the order placement reserved or "the means", and they have the opportunity of Boeing backlog shrinking. They just lack a motive or in this case the courage to join the Big Boys of the airline travel industry at a critical time. Waiting for any tailwind will have competitors landing in the region in numbers before Qantas can recover the market. If Qantas waits out on narrowing the risk and reward band they will become a Pan Am sentiment for National Geographic pictures. Qantas has the aircraft in view and it has the plan in hand, but it lacks the fortitude or a belief in its abilities and contains fears of failure. So will they cautiously consider more 787 without confidence in itself, as the world flies by and swoops in on another final approach, but with a different livery than Qantas?

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Boeing Play Book, Turn The Page Please (Completed)



Back in the heady days of the 787 project I dreamed of an airplane built in just one week. That day was July 7, 2007. It was the 787-8 first roll out before adoring plant workers. It reminded me of the movie “Gung Ho”, with Michael Keaton. The last batch of cars were pushed out in order to meet the quota dictated by the Japanese owners, where they found a truly American manufacturing Culture.

Before the 787 on 7/7/07 came "Gung Ho":




Boeing has  turned the page and makes a great airplane: 

The onslaught is about to come not with the 787 but with the 747. It's a last ditch effort jump starting the 747 rebirth. Emirates is in the discussion, albeit by the third party channel, and through the head of the airplane state, and not Clark.  The Boeing bid, if they get one, will have a significant PIP installment. It's a not only engine improvement, but they must find a way towards 500 seats without sacrificing overall performance. The seats must fit the Emirates sensibility factors. If Boeing can improve the 747 by an additional 500 miles, and going up to 500 seat capacity it "may" trip Emirates sensibility of going long with the 747-8i "E" class. Of course "E" for Emirates becomes the prominent motif on the 747-8i tail insignia. Part of the "E" class designations comes the Boeing options with its 747-8i. It would be thrown in a special package with every 747-8i ordered by Emirates. A one for one order bonus. For every 747-8i ordered, Emirates receives a discounted price for one 787-9 or a 787-10 for up to a hundred, plus 100 more options on all three models at the same generous price discounts.

Airbus has dared Boeing to do it, Emirates is listening through the knot hole and scheming its pleasures out. The Airbus dare comes from not reacting to Tim Clark on a A380 NEO request. Tim, who is not for want of patience, exercises his patience, and turns over consultation on the matter with his bosses. Yes, Tim has a Boss. His Boss does not clasp the hand of Corporate America until money is exchanged and talks to its silent third party who can purvey the Boeing deed under certain conditions. Boeing wouldn't be trying unless they could sensibly meet Emirates benchmarks. Emirates would like nothing better than Airbus threatened or a desperate Boeing making a competitive package. Of course the third party is Michael Keaton in this movie "Gung Ho".

What will happened is an unfortunate undetermined condition. Therefore a blogger steps up and makes a ridiculous Walter Mitty presumption on the whole matter. This is for the readers of happy endings. Boeing will NEO ,its NEO 747-8i, on paper. Done! Emirates third party makes a paper "appeal" on a competitive cheaper and faster to fleet status that Airbus can possibly achieve within three model types. The proposal is handed down to Tim Clark with a make-it-so recommendation from his Boss, "but" the make-it-so caveat  has conditions to be met before any order is placed! Boeing must guarantee the following list of concerns... and so forth. Michael Keaton has his work cut out. 

Friday, February 13, 2015

Pondering The 747-8 After Five years Flying.

The 747-8i rushed into the Jumbo Breach in 2010 and sponged away orders from the A-380 in both the freight and passenger categories. It has booked 119 for both types and with  68 of its number in freight and 51 for passengers. Compare that with Airbus A-380 having a five year lead over Boeing going big. They started building in 2005 on the A380 and have booked about 317 of the giants making almost 2/3rds the order book at this time. Boeing has delivered 84 out of 119 ordered or 70%.
Boeing shows about 35 remain on the order book. Below is the link on the brief history of the 747-8 since 2010.

Flashback Friday: 5th Anniversary of First Boeing 747-8 Flight

 


Airways News quotes:

"Specifications and Performance
The Boeing 747-8 is the world’s longest commercial airliner, with a length of 250 feet, 2 inches (73.3 m) and a wingspan of 224 feet, 7 inches (68.5 m). The full payload of the -8F is 295,800 pounds (134,000 kg), while the -8I can seat 467 passengers in a three-class layout or 605 in a single class, which no airline has opted for to date.  At their current MTOW of 987,000 pounds (448,000 kg), a -8F can fly 4,390 nautical miles (8,130 km), while the -8I can cover 8,000 nautical miles (14,800 km), both at a cruising speed of Mach 0.855 (570 mph or 917 kmph).  Furthermore, each GEnx-2B67 engine produces 66,500 pounds (296 kiloNewtons) of thrust.
Six months after the EIS of the 747-8F, Boeing reported a 1 percent reduction in fuel burn over the design projection, while delivering a 16 percent lower ton-mile operating cost than the -400F with more range.  The -8I carries 51 more passengers and provides 26% more cargo volume than the -400.  The 747-8 has identical lengths on the cargo and passenger versions, the key difference being the longer upper deck on the latter.  Moreover, Boeing foresees -8I conversion to cargo in the future.  Furthermore, the -8I offers a 30 percent noise reduction, improved fuel efficiency of 16 percent, and 13 percent lower seat-mile, in comparison to the -400.
The 747-8 passenger cabin incorporates interior designs from the 787, such as a more spacious entrance and curved overhead bins.  In addition, it uses windows similar to those of the 777 that are 8 percent larger than those of the -400.  Finally, it incorporates the popular LED mood lighting to improve the passenger experience."
--------------------------------------------------------------------

The future for the 787-8 is now. It has had five years as an Airbus A380 alternative and now Airbus has run this dog as far as it can. Boeing needs to refocus the worth of the 787-8 and no longer shadow the A380. It can haul almost a battalion of military. Three of its type would land the regiment. Six goes the equipment and supplies. All the military needs is an enormous landing strip in place. Not practical until portable landing strip frames are invented for a tarmac. It has to land and  hold a million pounds on a hot day. 

Moving back to the topic of passenger service requires more innovation, capturing the imagination of paying passengers. The A380 has captured the imagination of airlines, but once again that dog doesn't hunt as much as it did back in 2006. The 747-8 must exceed passenger expectation in travel, price and amenities. The travel becomes part of the vacation itself as if in cruise ship fashion. The passenger must associate how nifty the 747-8 has become over anything else the air. Where today, The word "efficiency" translates into small spaces for the passenger.  

The 787-8 must now innovate inside the hull if it is to survive. Using  new concepts unique to the 747-8 configuration. Flying is a social event, it is a private indulgence, and most of all it is a 747 experience all coming from what a 747 has inside. The metrics for the 747-8i has been achieved from engineering and innovative flying upgrades. However, this next round for the 747 is reserved for a proprietary experience for the passenger. Boeing must set the seat count to no more than 450 consenting passengers. In that space is should reek of Boeing innovation exclusive only to the 747-8. This is the only way the 747-8i will survive, as a passenger carrier, using a proprietary suite of excellence. The goal should set the standard, "I want to fly on a 747-8i".

The 777X is being built for a packed house. The 747-8ix should be built for an exclusive house. 


 

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Hey Boeing Do A 737-757 or 757-737 (Flash Update)

Update Link- Bolding:

UPDATE 1-Boeing says not studying reviving 757 with new engines


So the single aisle 757 is not on the docket. However a two aisle Goldenliner remains a consideration in the slot of the 757.

........................................................................................................
Original Article
Boeing needs to audible the "Gap". It is the Single-Aisle to Double Aisle Gap. They have an off-the-shelve concept in the 737-900 or "the in the bag 757", people mover. It should be called the 737-757 "GL", standing for a bridge going very far. A "Ranger", or something more sophisticated sounding like the "Goldenliner"AKA GL. It will link continental drift with a 5,000 mile range. The gauntlet has been thrown down. with the A321. Boeing could probably wait until Airbus orders are locked-in for the A321, but they won't. Boeing can move rather quickly with a 220 seat twin aisle, borrowing motif from the 787 and the metal from the 737. Maybe stick on the newly engineered carbon plastic wings hanging the latest generation engines, utilizing a cross-over theme from the 777X playbook. Its not a 787 or a 737 but it is the best of Boeing, taking from every invested idea it has made since 2005. It's everything new, since about the time they stopped making the 757.

Note this concept will not be a too lengthy 737-900 or a too stubby 787-800 it will be the Goldilocks of aircraft, that is just right, filling a gap Airbus has gone after. Slightly wider than the 737 and slightly narrower than the 787 where it will do 7 across in style with 2-3-2. with 31 rows or 217 MAX seats. Don't think Boeing has not gone here before, because it has, and it has a carefully measured its idea of how to get there quickly after the Max delivers in all its sizes. The Goldenliner is in the special spot where Boeing has built, tested and pondered ever since retiring production of the 757. Boeing only has so much resources dedicated to new technology and building new designs. Out of the Max,  out of the 777X  and foremost out of the venerable 787 ,comes the Goldenliner. The true gap filler. It will not be a family member for either the 737 or 787 but will sit in its own class leaving the designs of customers to come out and play. Ryan Air will have the 737-200C, along with the other market tampering airline competitors. This airplane has a dedicated niche from shuttle to transcontinental ranges. It will take people on Junkets far enough away without breaking the bank going for it.

The Max is about 118 inches wide (9'8")
The 787-8 is 215 inches wide (17'11")
757 is  139 inches wide or (11'7")
Goldenliner 757X- could be about 179" wide or about (14'.11") (two aisles) or less with one aisle.
Goldenliner 737-757 single aisle  would retain the old 11'7" dimension or 139 inches.

Estimations:
179" across
18" wide seats X  7 each = 126"  and two 26.5" aisles equaling 179"

This of course would require some engineering pencil erasers, as more configuration sketching is needed.

However the 757-737 Goldenliner would fall right between the 787 and 737 and not be too long or too short and its not too narrow, while not going wide. It would be the Goldilocks Goldenliner. Just done right.

The Ethiopian Gamesmanship

Ethiopian Airlines to order 20 wide-body aircrafts


Boeing will sweat this order because its not for the 20 dangling out in front of them but its for the relationship they have cultivated over the years as they have helped Ethiopian build its business with better equipment. Timing is a critical part of the deal. Who can deliver when Ethiopian will need the aircraft. They are looking potentially two suitors, the Boeing 777X and the A350-1000. Both models have not flown as of yet without Ethiopian getting overly excited by its own prospects during the near term. 

However, they have dangled a 20 unit wide body intent out in the air in hopes of snagging a competitive deal from either maker, so they say. One thing Boeing has to do is approach the sales junket to Ethiopian Air with an all out effort. They have the high ground with talking points. But what Ethiopian wants is some Boeing attention in the form of Boeing sugar, because most certainly Airbus is going after this one order as the obvious interloper.

A categorical talking point book from Boeing should grace an Ethiopian Exec coffee table. Including high glossy pictures and Gold leaf trim on the pages. Print at least 100 hundred for the whole board room, family and friends. Next send some Harvard Graduates straight from accounting over to Ethiopian for  helping them remember how the 787 changed the bottom line. All these 787 pilots can fly the 777X in a few days, how convenient. All your 787 mechanics can service the 777X is even more cost effective.

Now Boeing wants to talk about who has the better aircraft under all scenarios for Ethiopian. Rather than talk about the A-350 at all, Boeing should talk about the missing piece Ethiopian has going forward. If they only had a 777X, where will they be in five years from now? Leading the world?

Friday, February 6, 2015

The 787 Effect

Rarely do I repost an airline article verbatim. But this one speaks volumes as illustrating the Boeing Intent for thee 787 and its success. Without further harm, I will repost the article below:

Top Listed Airlines Flying The Boeing 787 Dreamliner


Boeing Delivers January

Fifty Boeing airplanes found its way to customers in January 2015. The interesting side bar is that it delivered in each of its sibling models from 737 through the 777 with accounts as follows:

Boeing Production,/Delivery for January
737-35
747-1
767-2
777-5
787-7

Total= 50

Airbus made orders in January for five whole airplanes, one more than Boeing during January. However the assembly and delivery department came away with 36 more aircraft short of Boeing numbers by 14 whole airplanes.

Airbus Production/Delivery for January

A320- 3
A330- 5
A380-1

Total=36

+ Let's talk some money. Boeing cashed more checks by beating Airbus by billions.
+ Orders from Airbus takes an early lead in  number and also in potential Accounts Receivable booking 5 A330-200.

Boeing has reduced by one 787, thus erasing its potential Revenue/AR off the books while adding 5 737's, totaling a net number of  4 after the 5 737 are added. It also booked less value than the Airbus' 5 A-330-200's ordered. It is all very  close in the game of  Horseshoes and Grenades for both. It means very little, since January is a regrouping month after 2014. It does show Boeing remains more robust than Airbus when manufacturing airplanes. Boeing is setting a significant tone for the year's production forecasts as Boeing exceeds Airbus easily, with  production numbers during the first 30 days.

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Boeing's First Hang-over for 2015 Has Arrived

The Start of each month a chart is made for your own view of Boeing's big picture from 787 production and delivery  pace. Its averaged over 90 days as a moving average. This 90 day per view captures any anomalies of customer readiness or production show stoppers. The average takes this all into account as a moving average and can be wrapped into a quarterly number every 90 days. Its a how did Boeing does for any given point in time at the first of every month, or looking back on a quarter just completed. Here is the 1st of February's moving average numbers including the January production and delivery hang -over.

Goal +/-                          *11/2014    **12/2014         Projecting    January-   (actual) Delta 
Month Deliveries               6            **18              10              7.0                     -11
3 M-M-avg                      9.0          11..67              10             10.33                   -1.33
Production Goal               10              10              10              10                         0
Delivery Trend (+/- )       - 4.           + 8.0                      . 0              +.33      /Target       >                
                                       *PM-Start      **M.A.P.                         PM-End
*Progression Months
**Moving Average Progression

Notes: The drop of a negative, -11,  number over December's production does not affect the 90 day picture for maintaining an average goal of ten a month as it is steadied with a 10.33 average delivered.

However, Boeing needs 23 three more 787's delivered in the next 57 days to meet quarterly expectations of 30 787's delivered by March 31, 2015. Boeing is positioned well enough to complete the goal. It has sufficient 787 ready for customers, testing and preflight status. As follows:

January Delivery                  7
Customer Delivery Pick-up  2
Preflight finish work           15
Production Testing              6
Total primed for 57 days    30

One more note:

Approximately 15 more are on production floors found in both plants. Boeing should migrate at least half those during March into the final preparation stage. Adding a conservative six in number to this status, add it to the above list. As they  should be delivered by March ending, the overall outlook number is for 30 during the quarter. Since these are ballpark numbers. An actual push from the floor will start sooner rather than later, and Boeing will meet the 30 goal for this quarter in progress comfortably.