Saturday, December 26, 2015

"The Unidentified" from Boeing's Order Book (Update Chart)

This is a blog article that shouldn’t be a movie or a best seller fiction novel. The unidentified is about the Boeing order book and those customers who do not want any acknowledgement for its Boeing orders. They are called the “Unidentified”. The answer for all this secrecy may be explained below with this end of year contribution.

The Boeing Order Book, has this category for its customers. Boeing claims this service is in the customer’s hands whether it announces or does not announce the purchase, or what aircraft type is the impending order placement. The secrecy of it all, is often not so secret, but having announcement value of unidentified, contains its own mystique and market value.

2015 Net Orders
563
2
49
58
71
743

Customers
737
747
767
777
787
Total
AerCap
100
-
-
-
-
100
Air Austral
-
-
-
-
2
2
Air Tahiti Nui
-
-
-
-
2
2
AirBridgeCargo Airlines
-
2
-
-
-
2
Alaska Airlines
6
-
-
-
-
6
ALC
8
-
-
-
-
8
All Nippon Airways
5
-
-
-
3
8
Atlas Air, Inc
-
1
-
-
-
1
Australia P-8
4
-
-
-
-
4
BOC Aviation
23
-
-
-
-
23
Business Jets / VIP Customer(s)
6
-
-
-
2
8
COPA Airlines
51
-
-
-
-
51
Delta Air Lines
20
-
-
-
-
20
EL AL Israel Airlines
-
-
-
-
3
3
Enter Air Sp. z o.o.
1
-
-
-
-
1
Ethiopian Airlines
-
-
-
-
6
6
Etihad Airways
-
-
-
2
-
2
EVA Air
-
-
-
7
18
25
FedEx
-
-
49
-
-
49
GECAS
2
-
-
-
-
2
GOL Airlines
9
-
-
-
-
9
Jet2.com Ltd
30
-
-
-
-
30
Korean Air
30
-
-
7
-
37
Norwegian
-
-
-
-
19
19
Oman Air (SAOC)
20
-
-
-
-
20
Qantas
-
-
-
-
5
5
Qatar Airways
-
-
-
14
-
14
Ruili Airlines
30
-
-
-
-
30
Ryanair
3
-
-
-
-
3
SilkAir
6
-
-
-
-
6
Silk Way Airlines
-
3
-
-
-
3
SMBC Aviation Capital
10
-
-
-
-
10
Sriwijaya Air
2
-
-
-
-
2
Swiss Global Air Lines Ltd
-
-
-
3
-
3
TUI Travel PLC
-
-
-
-
1
1
Turkish Airlines
10
-
-
-
-
10
Unidentified Customer(s)
244
-
-
15
36
295
United Airlines
-
-
-
10
-
10
United States Navy
9
-
-
-
-
9
Virgin Australia Airlines
4
-
-
-
-
4
2015 Gross Orders
633
6
49
58
97
843
Changes
-70
-4
-
-
-26
-100
2015 Net Orders
563
2
49
58
71
743

737
747
767
777
787
Total

Blue highlighted text in the chart above indicates updates for the current week.

About 40% of all Boeing net orders are “unidentified”, why? Here comes an answer containing words like “purpose and vague”.

Purpose: As in all business operations, there is an overarching strategy kept secret, in a sanctimonious chamber on a top floor of some building, where cigars are smoked. It is known only to those who are considered, shakers and movers of some risky idea in the aviation world. This comes to the “purpose”. The vision statement of a company starts it all. Somewhere in between its Vision and Mission evolves a purpose. In that purpose only a select few advance the strategy. “Unidentified”, becomes that strategy. “Let’s become as vague as possible so our competition can’t switch financial resources with any certainty meeting our market grab and plans.

Example: The country of China is an interesting example. Last month they announced upwards to 300 Boeing aircraft would be purchased as a strategy for meeting its own market growth in the region. It mentioned an order splitting up single aisle types with the approximate wide body order of fifty or more Boeing types, “If Boeing completed negotiations meeting China’s recommendations”, Winging It believes the 143 single aisle unidentified ordered comes from China, only with Airlines who have gained approval from its nation when signing with Boeing. The caveat is, kept it “unidentified”, for the sake of others who have pending announcements until all condition are met with China and Boeing.

Vague: was the opening description of this intent. China represent all its vast number of airlines as the nation isn’t defined as airline but a country. The various Chinese airlines operating cannot validate a purchase until its government approve of the sale. Look at the precise chart above and look at single aisle additions, specifically unidentified line in awful Pink highlight. About one hundred and forty-three 737’s were just added as unidentified this week making a total of 295 unidentified orders for 2015. A significant vague purpose. I will assume it came from China with its various airlines approved for an order play.

Surprise: You can’t surprise many in the airline industries. Competitor spying has its own expense lines in corporate financial statements. The unidentified on the Boeing Order Book, is a known number of whom, well an approximate number. Competitors figure each other’s strategy. Announcements become part of the mystique and a direction an airline is heading. Eventually a competitor figures it out, but it becomes too late to do anything about it, as in an unidentified mission accomplished.

Timing: A very critical component for a successful operation. Timing is everything for airlines, and it’s a counterpart from real estate’s famous slogan, “Location-Location-Location”. Timing is that critical [Timing,-Timing-Timing]. When Airbus stole the march on a single aisle upgrade with its NEO, it beat a self-absorbed and 787 centric Boeing Corporation by eleven months, after which Boeing announced its own MAX program. Air framers can’t sit back like its customers and announce an “unidentified” new aircraft models. A manufacturer must “nearly” always announce and identify its intent in order for gaining its purpose for new models when it launches. It’s a manufacturer conundrum not to identify what its intending. Timing becomes more critical for both maker and buyer.  However, timing for the airline customer becomes a strategic added value and mate for the unidentified sector, during ordering and adding to the Boeing order books.

Boeing's Total Unidentified:


Model SeriesEngFirst OrderOrdersDeliveriesUnfilledFirst Delivery
737 MAXCF01-Oct-2012647-647
737-700CF15-Nov-20079-9
737-800CF28-Sep-20073241231214-Oct-2014
737-900ERCF24-Apr-20156-6
737 Total98612974
747-400GE02-Apr-200211-27-Feb-2003
747-8FGE27-Nov-201222-23-Mar-2013
747 Total33-
767-200ERGE15-Apr-200211-27-Mar-2003
767-300ERPW25-Sep-200133-24-Oct-2002
767 Total44-
777-300ERGE22-May-201417-17
777FGE22-Jan-2014104626-Mar-2015
777XGE04-Jun-201510-10
777 Total37433
787-9GE30-Mar-20156-6
787-905-Dec-200843-43
787 Total49-49