Sunday, November 8, 2015

Emirates Respecting The Boeing Stance On Its 787-10

Emirates has announced to those paid to listen and report, it will wait on the market results instead of the duopoly PR machine. The airline recently canceled its order for 70 A350's in 2014. A big blow to Airbus ego. Boeing also has promoted its own yet to be built 787-10. Both manufacturers are positioned with airplane types having considerable Emirate's doubts from the flight line.

Each have the good news and bad news scenario in play. Good news, Emirates is still talking to Airbus. Bad news, Emirates is still talking to Boeing and so forth. The A350-900 has range beyond an Emirates solution and becomes excessive baggage for its route plan. The Boeing 787-10 is just right for its route plans, but becomes a lame duck in the event longer range is needed. Problem is solved for both makers via blending orders from both manufacturers.

The commonality issue becomes an important cost after blending fleets from two manufacturers when Emirates pursues an all-purpose fleet dynamic. Boeing attempts a solution having the 777X option with the 787 family and then commonalty is resolved. Airbus has a less dynamic line up with only two models in play. The A350-900 and the A350-1000. Emirates is looking at manufacturer blending and may drop this option when all numbers are assembled. 

However, Boeing has the 7,000 mile 340 seat 787-10, the 8,500 mile 350 seat 777-8X, and the 8,500 mile 405 seat 777-9X . Emirates is mulling actual operational performance. They have time to burn before its next big order. Time to wait for the 787-10 first deliveries and time for waiting on the A350 first hundred deliveries. The marketplace will decide for Emirates its best fit. 

Airbus is given a second chance at a large order, but it would likely end up as a split order with the 787-10, and then only gaining some A350's back in limited numbers. Perhaps a 60/40 split for 100 aircraft for the two manufacturers. Boeing would prefer a 100% order win during the 2018-2019 cycle. The later year order placement represents an allowance of time for both manufacturers rolling out equipment in an Emirates real world market testing of all aircraft, before it makes a decision.