Monday, September 28, 2015

Dubai November 8-12 Boeing Senses The Positive

The upcoming Dubai airshow is rapidly becoming the end of year match for what airplane framers crave. Most of all, the loose end orders for Boeing, may come together at the meet. There are several 787 orders in play coming from the East and South East from Dubai's position on the globe. Qantas and China could announce seizable 787 orders. The 777X has been order quiet for some time as the big players have already spoken on the 777X program since the 2013 Dubai Air Show. So what is Boeing excited about? That is the tease and the beauty of this airshow. It's the battle field for commercial airplane. It is also a place to show off Apache helicopters and the P-8, Boeing's super duper snooper Navy Air Force tool. I am for the order book war and how it plays because Boeing has a grin going for the show. Don't forget Single Aisle orders could come to the Dubai dance.

The World Changes With One 787 At A Time

Boeing's indomitable spirit marks the business case with JetStar. The announced plan was for Jetstar to take on 11 787 in behalf of the Qantas booking adjustments when they made a Business decision folding its initial 787 order book to a hold ’em position. Is anybody lost at this point? I am but can explain another take on JetStar's windfall for eleven 787 flying in its fleet. They had (past tense) A330 routing its network back in 2013. Then came the order book swap with parent Qantas, who had reached beyond a state of nirvana when ordering back in the day (2005) for over a hundred 787. Two Bloody Mary's later, Jetstar gets sloughed some 787. Qantas goes deep into the walk-in financial freezer. Now Qantas has cleaned-up its business case and are ready to bail out its 787-9's in the Boeing holding tank.  

Today is another 17,520 hours later than 2013 when Jetstar's first 787-8 loaded was loaded with 334 seats and was delivered. It is also a time when the first "free" (for Qantas) A330 is moved to the parent operation, Qantas. Those same models may also be the first casualties when infusing its first bunch of 787-9's into the mold. Say goodbye to A330 from the Qantas operations deck in five years. 

In summary of a clouded explanation for investors, Qantas has caught up with its business pivot when it realized they were in deep Bull Kah-Kah. Many, many meetings later, Jetstar is now ready to play full efficiency dollars with its eleven 787. Qantas is ready to buy full efficiency 787-9's for its stable of aircraft. The head scratching resulted in the lice being evicted. Questions, anyone?

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Next KC-46 Milestone, Money

On October 1st. The military will know if budget consideration are on track for the KC-46 program.

Defense News has offered this September 26, 2015 an observation: "Adding to Boeing’s troubles, service officials warned this month that the Air Force may be forced to break the KC-46 contract if the Pentagon is slapped with a yearlong continuing resolution (CR) at the beginning of the fiscal year. If Congress can not come to a budget agreement by Oct. 1, the Pentagon may be forced to operate under a long-term CR, a stop-gap spending measure that temporarily funds the government at prior year levels."

By the way the KC-46 passed its initial fully loaded system flight test yesterday. This paves the way for testing each system loaded on the KC-46 during the next steps testing progressions, regardless of having a money milestone conquered while the military seeks etching money from congress. 

Image result for KC-46 first test flight

The process continues, however, with a lower build rate if Congress does not pull its collective head out of the congressional well. There are several military projects hanging on a budget vote of importance featured in Winging It. KC-46, F-35, and the Navy's DDG1000 program. Money not in place for the programs is the game changer. 

Thursday, September 24, 2015

CR Waivers... Waiver???? KC-46/F-35

The Air Force is slipping another trick past its vaunted programs. They may seek Continuing Resolution Waivers from the US Congress for two critical programs currently in the breach of development. The KC-46 is going for its first test flight this weekend and the F-35 is deploying its Model A to the Military inventory and several other nations while in the midst of some budget controversy.


This is great news for the programs, if followed up, and successfully completed. It's my kind of big news on the defense front. However, carving out budget for its programs is a "Hail Mary" throw at the goal post. It also means the Air Force would be going to the mat for the two different frames and pushing the programs forward.

Otherwise, it will be stagnation for programs so corrosive as salt on iron.

What If China Was A Launch Customer For MOM

The proverbial Middle of The Market (MOM) aircraft could be China swinging for the fences. Remember when the 757 was vogue now it's still vogue. China came to Boeing this week and got me thinking, why? Somebody must have something up its sleeve. 

The 757 segment is the last untapped Boeing resource for the decade. China has a need for people movers throughout its continent and its surrounding region. What better of a way of suppressing the demand, with becoming the launch customer of an all new clean sheet MOM. It would be a 200-270 seat oval shaped wonder-kin of Boeing. It would establish a 5,000 mile parameter for China. Seven across dual aisle seating, and as airport compliant as the 737 MAX. 

Boeing -Seeking Alpha Graphic
Keep it secret? You Betcha, you'd better keep it secret. Did China order it? No they didn't, but the caveat may have been in the 300 plane order China made with Boeing.  How about a little clause of being the launch customer when Boeing announces the new flying Oval with 777 like wings, 787 like avionics and engines and Max like Aluminum dynamics (Advanced technology wings and laminar flow characteristics installed).

Call it, ??? I'm working on the moniker. Currently it’s down to:
  • Continental Drift
  • The MOMinator
  • NapLiner
I never worked in advertising and it shows.

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

The China 300 Is What's For Dinner

Three hundred aircraft have been agreed upon in Seattle. It's not the 300 sounding the deal but the location that underscores the deal. China came to Seattle with its Nation's President marking the importance for China rather than Boeing going to China asking for some preferred customer status. This is possibly more important than the order coming from China.

Comac, a Chinese production attempt, is not ready for China's emergence into the aviation market. It needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China. But China came to Boeing signing away what it wants and needs from Boeing. That is the most important action taken this year for both partners. The three hundred undefined orders would suggest the bulk as a single aisle MAX or NG's. However it also paves the way for follow-on 787 orders not yet announced. The devil is always in the details.

The "General Deal": #300 is Recommended: <<Click left for best results

Perhaps in giving what China wants, Boeing has already moved past what China wants. A clean way to build Single Aisle NG Aircraft, where Boeing can amp up Max production in Renton Washington. It can now can sell more Max down the road in five years. China can now pass a road block when using Boeing's lifetime achievement expertise for building single aisle, which Comac lacks. It's a win-win for both giants. There should be some 787 orders in there for Chinese sweetening. The undefined nature of the Chinese order suggest much more in the paper work than just 300 airplanes ordered and Boeing manufacturing in China using Chinese staffing requirements.

Boeing has “Maxed” its plant facility in Washington, and Boeing pivots toward the orient slicing off the Airbus hoards wanting more and more from the orient. Make no mistake in thinking Boeing will master the Orient with this move. It has bought significant time, and a placeholder in the largest market coming into the world. China will not stop Comac nor its aspirations as an aircraft player. Boeing knows this all too well. It has its own plans founded in the near future and is depending on having a technological edge in the aviation for many years to come. China is expecting to bridge its technological aviation gap it has surveyed with Boeing over the next ten years. This deal has limits for each and its in the paper-work. 

However, it serves both well during its relevant positions found in the current market place. Both will win on this deal otherwise China wouldn't have come to Seattle.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

F-35 Reveal Has Started

US officials: F-35 will outmatch any aircraft in development

Flight Global has started the ball rolling for the F-35 news this month. September 2015 is both a watershed moment for the Boeing KC-46 and the Lockheed F-35. Please link up above for Flight Globals report.
“It’s the finest fighter airplane in the world and nothing compares to it,” Bogdan says. “I’d put this airplane up against any airplane in the world today, tomorrow and for the next 20 or 30 years and we’ll come out ahead.”
Bogdan was responding to a question about whether the F-35 could hold its own against the latest Russian jets, particularly the T-50 that will reportedly enter service in 2016 in a limited capacity."

Monday, September 21, 2015

Boeing's China Visit Is Not A Tea Party

China is visiting Boeing this week. It is not a political junket for China's president, Xi Jinping. He is not interested in Seattle's importation of restaurants in the downtown Seattle area. Xi is looking at what an auto pen will do to Boeing's order book. A Translator from China relates to Xi Jinping, "If you push this button it will sign your name here, here, and here. Viola, China now owns a good chunk of Boeing's production.

The Boeing walk through- meet and greet is underway. The glad handing promenade is a nonstop tour of the American industrial and technological engine, China can't wait for current conditions to turn up for its own aviation juggernaut to catch up. They need aircraft now. Well at least in the next five years.

This week’s Boeing tour is not exploratory, it's more of a validation on the production might Boeing has, and it is giving China more assurance, and yes Boeing can do the Job with China's top leader in the buildings. The "shop stop" signals a deal will be done this year. It will be a single aisle barrage splinting up China's domestic expansion. It will also be a wide body "all-in" stance, since it brings China to the world. Several airlines like China Southern have already committed to Boeing through its testing fleet of 787's, using the 787 in long range market, and it agrees that it is a winner and the foundation for world travel.

The last questions remain for Boeing, "do you want it super-sized with 787-10's or will the Max -8's be your order today?"

China has a huge thirst at this time. It should be a super-sized orders for its national carriers. A China order should be an all-in Max line, complemented by its 787 family of aircraft. If only Winging It had an "Eager Meter" strapped to Xi Jinping's wrist, I could tell you an accurate guess on China's Boeing Aspirations. This is not a tea party, but more of a fortune cookie.

Even Though Five Delivered 787 In September, Boeing makes Guidance

Boeing has delivered by the 21st of September 2015, thirty-one 787 during its third quarter. It has met delivery guidance for the 787 type once again as stated by averaging 10.33 a month during the whole of the third quarter with another nine days remaining in September. Boeing is achieving consecutive quarters meeting guidance since the first of the year.

Even though only five have so far been delivered, in the month of September 2015, it remains solid that it will continue with a few more 787 deliveries before quarter's end, which indicates Boeing continues a surplus in production numbers above its own original guidance. Expectations should bring in about thirty-four 787 during the third quarter as it could add three more 787 during September. It would bring Boeing's monthly delivery on pace, when considering current production energy on the floor and what is in the Boeing supply chain. The EX/IM banking issue in the US is affecting delivery confidence as some customers have Boeing aircraft ready for delivery, but no banking resources available from the EX/IM quandary coming from the US Congress.

Saturday, September 19, 2015

Postoperative Debriefing

Everything went well as in text book well. Now it's back to limited scope work out on WI. The veritable progress of aviation’s renaissance is back on track. Since I don't follow news during in shop maintenance, it's a protocol thing, I will spend 24 more hours getting back in the saddle again. Therefore, I will relate to what's going on with Boeing. A ton of things to be exact. I am expecting another order breakthrough announcement in the next 60 days. The Dubai meetings have a pre announced slow sales activity benchmark. However, something in the month of November is percolating up even though it may be a non-Dubai activity announcement. The year's total for the 787 orders will be respectable and interesting I am stilling leaning towards a 100 787 order year by December 31, 2015.

787 production goals are going to exceed guidance. Boeing is coming in for a 2015 big finish. I am anxious on my predictions and how it plays out. Acting as a de facto Boeing executive, my laser pointer says Boeing is going to continue its positive march in forward for market share in spite of the Airbus single aisle flurry it just put together with its key single aisle customers.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Heads-Up Display

I am sorry to announce that I will have some repair and down time! The Doctor and engineers want to install a new operating system near to the center of my heart. It will make me fly a little longer. My sarcasm and what little wit I have left was promised as an intact feature and will remain operational after this system is installed and implemented. I should be down for maybe, up to several weeks according to the KC-46 program heads. After which, I will come out with parachute packed and safety net installed. If it works, I will land back here at Winging It soon. Thanks for reading and watching in advance, over this site while I'm down. Just keep clicking, there is a lot of blogging within Winging It for your further confusion. You will just have to get back to work. There is no other way, but work, it's your job!

Last of its kind before the Jet age. A Montana Teepee burner at Fort Missoula Historical Park. A complete train set and station sits behind me. It was spectacular when they put on a log afterburner show back in the day of the lumber mill. It was a wood burning jet engine that never flew.

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

First 737 Max In the Renton Assembly Line III

The 737 Max in this Boeing picture is at the start of line III. In front of its nose is open space going to the end of its ground journey. Notice the wing tip feathers. Just for fun count the number of people in this frame. I expanded the photo on screen and found 17 people. I may have missed a few.

The very first 737 Max on the line, with lots of empty space ahead to fill.

KC-46 Will Have An Air Force Problem Reveal Next Week (Updated \ Video)

Not only is the KC-46 on the docket for next week’s military problem reveal, the F-35 often criticized program will be there too. It’s perhaps the most important discussion coming from the US Air Force affecting the US military industrial complex in a long time. The stock market will parse and analyze words spoken.

Aviation junkies must memorize these Air Force names, Lt. Gen. Christopher Bogdan for the F-35, and Brig. Gen. Duke Richardson for the KC-46. They hold sway over the future of these two critical programs. They have been tasked with oversight and act as the canary in the mine if something falls short of delivering what was promised.

Many doubts are raised about the F-35 meeting and exceeding fourth generation fighters such as the F-16 and other foreign adversarial fighter airframes. 

What is purported on the F-35:

General Mark A Welsh III: AFA conference
Chief Of Staff USAF Washington, DC

Counters these arguments listed below and makes the F-35 case during the video.
Check The 36:12 minute mark on video about the F-35 Program Status.

Standard complaints offered on the sideline:

  • Its falls short to the F-16 in air to air close combat.
  • It has had encountered too many program faults
  • It will not have close combat air superiority over the latest generation foreign fighters
  • It compromised its air frame, giving up performance for both STOVL and Carrier based fighter configuration for the Navy and Marines. One concept does not always fit all.
  • Concurrency is a Military STD on its building complex. 
This now brings us to the Boeing KC-46 Air Force Report Card. The fixed cost has been an impediment to Boeing trial and error approach during development, with a follow-on air tanker from a commercial frame. Its error margin is already gone when installing critical systems. When delivery time is a key element for the military, it becomes a key cost to the supplier (Boeing) to make it on time.

  • The KC-46 needs and error free flight test period
  • The Air Force Should Tell Us straight Up Were The KC now stands
  • Boeing can deliver and succeed on this key project but it will take an investor hit because of it.
The Air Force Presentation next week will sway the Boeing stock market one way or another, when it comes to the KC-46 project. Lockheed's F-35 won't have a final answer until it goes to combat someday. However, early reports indicate the Marines have a winner. It is not known how well the F-35 super-secret internals will buy back many advantages in aerial combat, or how it can be used as an interface within the total combat arena assisting old technology.

Its multi-systems and pilot helmet controls can help fourth generation fighters with what they lack in the combat arena. The F-35's stealth gives it a longbow advantage for incoming fighters 100 miles out. Close combat may not be its specialty, but its added combat values nullify the need for close combat encounters. The Air Force must learn how to leverage the F-35 technology into air superiority, and that may take hands-on and brains-on time in the cockpit. The military has to catch up to this technology and not look back at the old paradigm of the F-16 as the role model. This is a different animal.

Latest News: 9/15/2016

AFA 2015: KC-46 first flight back on schedule

Budget Gridlock Looms Over AFA  Next weeks news added.

Friday, September 11, 2015

GE-9X Makes A Break Through With Its CMC

The 777X9 needs an engine. Boeing has chosen GE for the honors for that task. They have named it the GE9X reflecting a developmental label for the 7779X program. What is so different with this engine over the 777-300ER GE90 engine is that it will be a lighter, smaller by inches and made with stuff GE has been working on for ten years. The material is called CMC or a carbon ceramic material that is lighter thinner and heat resistant in a super-hot environment. This means, a more efficient Jet engine developing 102,000 pounds of thrust compared with 115,000 pounds of thrust with the 777-300ER. Engine Diameter will be 133.5 inches across. Sixteen blades are needed for the main fan. It will have a 10% fuel efficiency over prior models of the GE90 configured engines. A 5% improved specific fuel consumption (SFC) versus any twin-aisle engine at service entry.

Regarding the CMC testing just reported. GE has advanced its CMC materials used for fan blades and internal parts while subjecting it in duration testing and gaining such positive results it will proceed forward with those parts in the upcoming flying tests for the GE9X engine on the 747 test bed. The remark coming out of duration parts testing, indicated the materials retained a pristine composition after 2,800 hours of undergoing the duress of heat and pressures exceeding engine operational conditions. Ten years of research for the CMC material has paid off for GE. It is proceeding with making a better engine for the 777X9 program, and may spin-off more advances for the 787 program after it successfully testing out it engine building propositions for the 777-X9 program.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

B of A analyst Says: A Gap Filler Is A Good Place For Boeing Replacing Its 757

Bank of America analyst have recommended Boeing build the consummate tweener. A 757 2.0 version. Boeing could in one sweep of the design board stop all the nonsense found in the A-320 Neo program. A new class of Boeing with the possibility of 1,000 of its type in sales could be coming.

Seeking Alpha has Reported:

Boeing has said it is considering a new jet that would fit a niche between its single-aisle 737 and long-range 787 Dreamliner, and the BofA analysts find "a strong case" for Boeing to go ahead, estimating a market for ~2,700 planes from airlines to replace older planes or swap in for inefficient, long-range jets that they are currently using for medium-range flights.

However, the analysts say Boeing's ability to recover its cost of capital on the program would depend on executing a more cost effective production method than the 787, which has struggled with high production costs building the mostly carbon-fiber composite jet.

A Few Days Off Brings Us To : The F-35

"Today there are 126 F-35s of various models in service (plus 19 test aircraft); by the end of 2019, that will skyrocket to 493. “When we have those 493 airplanes out in the field in 2019, guess how many of them will be in what I consider to be the right configuration?” Bogdan asked the ComDef conference here. “Not. A. One. Every one of the airplanes coming off the production line today and coming off the production line for the next two and a half years, plus all the airplanes we’ve built already, will need some form of modification to get them up to the full capability that we promised the warfighter. That is a massive undertaking..”

So says,  Lt. Gen. Chris Bogdan, program executive officer (PEO) for the F-35.
This is from an intensive series of articles supplied by"Breaking Defense".

Currently exciting news comes from Italy: Via Defense News

In summary Italian interest have built or should say assembled its first F-35 at an airport plant, and rolled it out the door. It flew off for an hour and twenty-two minutes. How about that, it's a F-35 project milestone?

Now comes the entanglement of production the F-35 finds itself in, through the concept called "concurrency". They were right starting the word with "Con", as in con job. The above Bogdan quote best describes concurrency at its peak. "Not A One", is like any other F-35. Bits and pieces litter the production trail, marking a project falling apart along the production way. The mitigation of the problem is found with block production runs, hoping containment stays within each block. However, containment of production progress, within a concurrent plan allows seepage flowing into any block when having daily updates applied to anyone's model on-the-line!

Sad Sack is defending America from the production floor. Before "anyone" buys the next bomb shelter, there is some hope for future military programs. Concurrency is a buzzword waiting for the next military industrial complex idea. It will be retired by a new conceptual phrase, perhaps, "Next Fighter Up". The sum of all changes has to reach a culmination where all fighters are consistent within not a block but through entire division of military applications and concept. 

Starting with one frame, and applying that frame to three different applications is a nightmare. The Air Force, Marine, and Navy is a concurrent design flaw concept. The Marines affect both the Navy and Air Force potential capability. The Marine design must adapt a central fan for STOVL operations. The Carrier version is beefed-up and heavier than the Air Force version. The Air Force version is limited on speed and agility of what an advanced fighter could have been if it had not been penalized by the Navy and Marine versions in base designs. The Concurrent Three Musketeer sentiments flows with "A One for all and all for one," mess.

The limitations arrive with having flying characteristics marginally different than the F-16. There are faster more nimble fighters available as adversaries. However, they lack the electronic sophistications of the F-35 which gives them "internal" air superiority, and a very long reach with some invisibility.

This brings us to the biggest problem, internal computer codes that have to have so many updates. The code corrections are awaiting its implementation while in testing mode, assuring program stability and validation. The "main edge" over other adversarial aircraft is scattered all over the concurrent production floor within each "Block model" having a different "Block code version", installed controlling its secret military platforms. It is reaching its final giant Cluster F*** and then it will fly concurrently with Block 11, as its role model.

What the military and Lockheed are now doing for these dismal concurrent conditions is sweeping up the technological crumbs that were swept off the table after each "Block Release".

Monday, September 7, 2015

What Came First A Wing Or a Bird?

Answer: The Wing Plant


Boeing Building Business is alive and well in Everett. This Spring time photo shows the airplane will be built. The wing will roll out on a specialized carrier frame rolling into the 777 manufacturing site straight into the production building.


Note the orange or yellow colors of cranes in the background (center back of roof line). This is the wing plant under construction just behind the World's largest building. The Wing center remains dwarfed by the main show in the front of this photo.

It will receive the title of World's Largest Twin Engine Passenger Jet. It will be built in the World's Largest Building next to the Word's Largest Wing Manufacturing Facility. Records are made, to be broken. Today is Boeing's day as it embarks on a fanciful journey of airplane building, because it can. There is no glory in accomplishing what it can do anyways, as Airbus would have you believe. There is only glory in doing what no one else can do. Build planes that are needed for the existing market.              

Sunday, September 6, 2015

Boeing Goes For Extra Space With Its Starliner

Space the final frontier, is Boeing's new Florida gig. They will build its Starliner in Florida on-site near the launch cape. They have to build it because there already a rendering of the spacecraft.

Its really big tub taking on an Apollo motif. What it can carry is a full space station crew and large amounts of space station type cargo. It's a sole source project for the ISS. Boeing with this sketch is not going to Mars or around the Moon. It could carry and plant small satellites into orbit during a crew change out run to the ISS while  orbiting.  The Starliner is not breaching new technology in its approach but enhance the old technology by making it bigger, more durable and well suited for its mission. Making the US space program relevant with the ISS mission.

The importance of this demonstration is for American industry, which can once again re-enter the space age filling a mission gap existing since the space shuttle was mothballed by NASA. It also gives another domestic industry a step into the space age, where it could later design follow-on long range capsules for a Mars trip. Boeing will have gained a real bench mark experience through this Starliner project that could lead to building a Mars capsule, and for its return with a same unit from Mars.

Saturday, September 5, 2015

Boeing Builds Worlds Largest Airplane (errrh Twin Engine)

Every headline I take with a grain of salt as misleading. The recent Headline oft repeated Goes like this:

Boeing 777-9X: World's Biggest Jet 

This example of a headline is balderdash in the back pasture. So let's get this straight from the get go, we are talking "Twin Engine People", quoted from Yosemite Sam's cartoon series. The engines are bigger with two identical cans hung from the enormous wing which extend 235 feet in unflappable symmetry. Did you know the engine cowling leading edge will have Laminar Flow Technology, patented by Boeing and shared with GE. For those who don't care, I'll explain it anyways because you stumbled onto Winging It. Start with dimples on golf balls which make 'em fly further on the driving range with your new monster headed driver making you into an Arnold Palmer. Go to the aircraft body maker and lifting surface gurus and they say we've done it and patented it already. Boeing put edges on the Horizontal and Vertical leading edges and have done some golf-ball like tricking on its 787-9's and next the 787-10 model. 

They call it the Laminar Flow Technology Prominently Installed Somewhere Serious (LFT-PISS). Remember the old Spoilers on some race cars in the 70's with those awful looking wings welded, bolted, or glued on the back of a car. They called those "Spoilers". The really spoiled the looks of a race car on a short track. Laminar flow is now added to the Jet engine opening reducing drag, and you can't even really see it unless you are a maintenance guy with a scrub brush looking for bug splotches on certain surfaces. Digress I must, because people are expecting something World's Largest to happen, but it really bugs me about any headline pimping and bugs have to be accounted for in such an airplane as Boeing is building. They are going from a fly paper airplane to fly swatter sized Airbus smasher with its new 777X build. When they start making parts it's no longer a fly-paper airplane, it will include the LiftnPiss system.

Moving forward with intellectual commentary is the sole source of any humor. Boeing has Sole Sourced the 77X trump card thrown down on the industry. Everyone in the industry is blinking feverishly at the concept. You don't build a Wing Plant in Everett Washington state unless you are holding nothing but Aces as Trump cards in the game of Airplane poker. Say Goodbye A-350-1000 and say good-bye, dare I say, A350-900, as Boeing backhands them with a better product. Wide Body buyers are stunned. They bought Airbus already, hook line and sinker. Fleet renewal just took on a new definition from the 777X. It will replace the following aircraft in the next order round for all customers. The 747, A350-1000, A350-900, and A380 as the 777X will fit into nearly all high density airports.

Boeing has maximize the Twin Engine Concept (TEC). It’s the final pin Boeing has inserted into the Airbus Voodoo doll, ouch.  TEC is here to stay and four engines is so 1950's for both big and small types. 

Image result for four engine 1950's aircraft
Late 1950's Boeing 707

Friday, September 4, 2015

Oshkosh Defense Replaces Hummer: Primer

For those of you living under a rock. The Hummer productions is no more. China bought the mold. However, before going gonzo crazy over its demise. Stop drop and roll infantry style. The Oshkosh defense has a suite of combat vehicles starting with the L-ATV. It's not your kids four wheeling ATV. It looks more like a BLM fire truck.

The infantry will have to develop new combat tactics for its new equipment. Interurban or on a rocky ridge, the L-ATV is imposing compared with your own recreational ATV, where is was possibly made in China.

Oshkosh no longer is about aviation and shows, it's about defending our country.

Oshkosh L-ATV Main View

The Silver Bullet Kills Four Engine Monsters

Recently, Boeing  has closed its 777X design phase, so it can proceed with its build of the first of its type. The 777X will be well suited to fit inside of all 747-8 slots at the jet way. It will carry similar passenger groupings within high density market demand, with over 400 passengers. The 747-8i typically carries under 400 passengers on the majority of its routes. The 777-9X could become an Air Force One for some nation's security plans its so large and can fly so far.
Wikipedia Chart

In 2013 Boeing knew the handwriting on the wall for its 747-8 program. It was spiraling downward and would have remnant aircraft orders by 2020. Currently it is taking a production step downward where it will go to about one a month. The 747-8F program received a note from management that four were cancelled by Japan Airlines due to consideration for its own needs for freight traffic. The freight segment is Boeing's most robust order engine for the 747.

The 777-9X will seat at least 400 passengers with a superwide cabin with larger, higher windows when it begins production in 2017.
Boeing Photo

The A-380 has finally stagnated its order book as it stalled order expansion by 2013  as well. Airports can't reconfigure fast enough to except new numbers for its type. A Boeing observation made before the first A-380 was ever delivered. The aircraft had its own market constraint. It was set up for failure from the start. However, Airbus made bank on promoting its ego with the World's largest passenger airplane for the last decade.  The stalled Airbus order book for the A-380 has no airport support.

This brings us to the 777-9X where in a few years since its announcement in 2013, it has again made  year 2013 stick out, where over 300 hundred of the 777X types has been ordered, matching the venerable A-380 with its 10 year order book in only two years. Only fifty -Five A-380 have been ordered since 2013.

Wikipedia Chart

The 400 million dollar aircraft has set its production anchor with a design freeze and parts making has started for the first of many aircraft rolling forward. Its wing plant is a shell, but rapidly reaching its construction climax. The program progress has reported its progress wheel is turning "oh so slowly, but proceeding oh so finely".
Tim Clark CEO Emirates
Why I bought the 777X

Thursday, September 3, 2015

Boeing Updates Its Order Book

Yikes, on Labor Day its time to relax and not cancel 4-747-8's off the Order Books. Go to the self explaining Order Book at Boeing .com

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

The KC-46 Will Shadow Boeing Stock Investments

The KC-46, "Pegasus Project" has had its ups and downs and delays. Its fixed cost lid directly affects the Boeing stock report. The trouble with the KC-46 project influences Boeing stock can only change when its military outliers change within nominal forces. The long term stock outlook is only an opinion tied with the roller coaster approach of the KC-46 status. In time: as mistakes, glitches and money are retired on the project, Boeing stock should shape up as a stable investment considering those short term indices. The long term is predicated on long term outcomes for the KC-46 project.

Image result for Pegasus KC-46 

Boeing is at a critical point for the project. What is at stake is its reputation and its relationship with military programs like the LRB (Long Range Bomber). There is some residual risk spinoff downward if the project duds out. Or does not meet the military's expectation.

The above link gives the "Bidness" perspective on the KC-46 project.

"Following the earnings release, analysts had pointed out that the program could prove to be an impediment to growth for Boeing’s top and bottom line, if there is another delay in the program. The company had lowered its full-year 2015 (FY15) earnings estimate from $8.20–8.40, to $7.70–7.90 to reflect the $0.77 per share impact of the charge realized during the quarter."

"While the program could adversely affect the company’s relation with the Department of Defense, we believe that other programs, such as the P-8A surveillance aircraft, would keep the relationship between the two entities strong. The company was reported to have received a contract worth $1.49 billion for the delivery of 13 more of the P-8A aircraft on August 27, showing high demand for the offering from Boeing’s DSS segment."

I had referred to  Boeing's defense posture with its DOD's P-8A success as an example Boeing can deliver on a Military timeline as Winging It had mentioned in an earlier blog. Boeing's reassurance for KC-46 project is often stated by Boeing talking heads. Boeing has just announced another delay after those reassurances from mistakes made with the refueling systems. Thus rattling investor confidence at this time. 

The time is a speck on the project which is soon to be updated. The real concern about time is losing another KC-46 year due to setbacks at this juncture. That is becoming less likely each day. When the first KC-Pegasus successfully flies fully loaded in an operational status this fall, it is only two months late in the the over-all picture. Then Boeing will exhale, and investors will clamor once again with Boeing's military outlier against the company as a whole. It's wait and see time for Boeing and the Pegasus. A swing vote by investors will occur by year's end after its first fully operational flight.

A CAPA Report Must Read

CAPA:   has come out specifically with a snapshot of the Big Three fleet status and its purchasing intent. It demonstrates an active competition of the world's big two airplane manufacturers.  Both Boring and Airbus has set anchors in the American market. Please link up with CAPA: and see the subtle shifts in its competitive fleet representations within the big three, and ferret out Airline strategy by its future intent for placing orders on aircraft.