Monday, July 13, 2015

Flightglobal announces CDR for the 787-10

Critical Design Review (CDR) means Boeing is over 90% complete with its 787-10. It means Boeing design team will turn over the bulk of design requirement to the construction planners. They will coordinate 787-10 part making for the first tests aircraft. The activity validates a 2018 target Boeing has for the 787-10. Please read Fightglobal's report for the original source. 

What Boeing has learned from the 787-9 project will have its carry forward technology which will increase first build efficiency. The 787-9 added multiple new concepts to the 787-9 not found on the 787-8. However, those added value advancements will not have to go through vetting when its placed on the 787-10 frame for first time and then on other 787-10 test craft. The main feature added to the 787-10 is the additional 17 feet body segment adding length to the 787-10. Even though certain upgrades from the 787-9 project and additional discovered in-service 787-9 -changes, will become majority of most change items incorporated on the 787-10. Boeing smoothly transitioned from the 787-8 to the 787-9 without any noted mishaps in initial product testing.

The expectation continues to grow for the 787-10, as it looks forward to a very clean process within the experience it has gained throughout the 787 story. 

However, an aircraft ordering pause for the 787-10 has emerged during the last few years. It is not due to the concept, but is due the heavy wide body orders occurring before the initial 787-10 offering. 

Boeing marketing concludes that backlog reduction and new financial sourcing will invigorate the 787-10 family line as it will gain additional 787-10 orders once initial delivery starts. The customer has time for recovering from all the wide boy orders made during the last ten years. 

With 1,105-787 ordered and 781-A350 ordered, an expansion for all wide bodies orders are in a paused state until backlog is reduced  and financing becomes available. In fact 169 A-350-10 are on order, and it has not even begun its first build. The total booked 787/350 type WB's equals 1,886 currently booked.

The 787-10 can expect more orders (Eva Air is ordering 24 787-10 before end of year), as Boeing has currently reduced its backlog approximately down to around 812 787 units out of 1,105 it booked. A scramble for 787-10 order may come once the 787-10 starts flying. 

In three years or by 2018, Boeing would have delivered an additional 360 787's of its two types. The backlog will be at approximately 452 787's, when using today's Boeing's order book totals. It is conceivable Boeing will take on another 250 787 orders in the next three years for all types including the 787-10.

The three factors pausing the order book is:
  • Backlog available slots
  • Financing Availability
  • Proof of Concept in testing, when the 787-10 exceeds current expectations