Saturday, May 30, 2015

The CFM Leap 1B was Underated Last Month. Now Its Gaining Height!

The CFM Leap 1-B had a 5% short fall last month coming off its bench testing. Now that it is under wing several key players in its development have come forward and said those numbers misrepresented what was really happening to the CFM Leap 1B. Smiles have returned to the Boeing execs faces in lock step. It is a key indicator of a hasty news report about the CFM engine. The 68" front opening of the MAX directed engine has achieved early bench marks while under wing on the 747-400 test bed. No one has said exactly what has happened to that 5% low ball short fall number, but it appears the first tune up during its flying testing has moved the efficiency needle back closer into the 14% efficiency realm it has promised its Max customers. Quiet backslapping is a great indicator of corporate relief.

The MAX is on track again with CFM and Boeing. The testing and tweaking process has begun. Innovation is once again a hold card, once all normal progressions are completed. The CFM at 68 inches has achieved theoretical performance it had claimed when compared with the Airbus CFM Leap 1-A 79" diameter. The 1B will be lighter than the 1A. It has an Aerodynamic sweet spot compensating for the Airbus advantage of its larger 78" for the A-320 family.

The rule of thumb is a bigger diameter jet engine produces better efficiency than one with a lessor diameter. In Boeing's case they had to find a better preforming CFM Leap 1B than the Airbus Leap IA configuration. Boeing reached back in its bag of tricks for some aviation Trickeration for the 12" smaller diameter engine using wing placement adjustment and center of gravity considerations. Drag elimination on the engine nacelle with new aero design points mitigating any so called engine drag and from a lighter over-all single aisle structure than Airbus with its engine weight. Even though CFM shares its technologies with Airbus, Boeing seeks a greater performance efficiency out of a smaller engine size.

The gauntlet was laid down for CFM, where Boeing asked for more Carbon Fiber or plastic components with its engine needing a greater heat dissipating properties under its nacelle than the prior CFM's. The trend line for the Leap 1B indicates more innovation on the engine and aircraft complying with the MAX design points for having a low engine clearance on the ground. Secondly, the engine, frame fit, and performance must work more within the MAX design, as a sum of all its contributing parts equals optimal performance for Boeing and CFM. The Leap 1A with Airbus may have a role of all CFM efficiency are hung on the wing, and are found just within the engine. The Leap 1-B is a solid two team project integrating the MAX with The Leap as a Joint solution in performance.

Considering the chart above it appears the 737 NG has a 6% head start before the MAX had announced its inception for development. Now it will lead by 5% at the end of the day. The caveat is seats available is greater for the MAX. This does not include the A-321 frame which is a separate class of Single Aisle. The MAX 737-9 is also not part of this discussion as shown by the chart above.

The testing that is occurring is an epic change to the paradigm for single aisle aircraft engine building. The Boeing smiles this week indicate a self-assured positive outcome. Getting the CFM off the bench and flying was a great idea, and long over-due from a press point of view. Actual final efficiency numbers are usually understated as an error towards being conservative for all concerned until it goes on the MAX itself.

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Call Me Crazy, Call Me Irish, Don't ever Call Me Crazy Irish

Michael O'Leary
Michael O'Leary Dips into Darby O'Gill's Pot O' Gold IBT Photo Credit (Getty)

To the tune of: "Ryanair has reported an end-of-year net profit of €867m (£613m, $944m) after carrying 90.6 million passengers in the 12 months to March."

A steady delivery cycle of 183 737 NG's are heading his way since it began last year in 2014. Then comes the 737 Max 200 in 2017, or is it 200 Max 737's. I lost my own mind in his quest for Darby O' Gill's Pot O' Gold . 2023 is the year the deed is done.

Why am I am clicking my heals? Because IBT says its so, that's why!

66% profit increase, yowser!

Rumor has it Michael has invented a better way to pack sardines into a can too! He is unstoppable with his ideas relating to product packaging.

O'Leary for Airline President! Oh, excuse me he is already one to boot. The Max should deliver on March 17th  on any year past 2017. I have plans for that day every year, until the cows come home, and doesn't include staying home. It may include a trip to Ireland for cabbage and corn beef until the c... well you know the tag line. Michael O'Leary can you spare me two airline tickets from Boise, Idaho. Call me crazy, but I was always told... to politely ask the question anyways, so I asked, so sue me. I asked my wife a question once, and it changed my life permanently. I am not Irish, just a hung over Scotsman at the belt line, who likes corn beef and cabbage with a little Irish music. 

Crores Are eating away Air India's Lunch

The long awaited and long deployed 787 has not turned Air India away from loss even though the fuel metric has turned most operations in a positive fuel cost direction on its international routes. The 787 has lived up to its promise for Air India, making gains in the fuel in its cost category for each international flight. The disturbing Air India financial news remains with the operators end of mismanagement. The 787 delivered, but the company that flies it cannot get its arms around its own profitability scheme.

The  above chart suggests over $90 million a month is lost while operating and applying its variable costs. A chief indicator of that loss is from not receiving enough revenue stream gained from appropriate ticket prices and collecting  greater loss from its operational inefficiencies. Air India  picks up too much of the the work and supply tab every time one of its airplane flies. Anybody for fixed Costs?

The numbers above come from  Hindustan Times. Trade values for currency are from today's calculation converting Crore to US dollars.

Monday, May 25, 2015

Keeping Up: Airbus has 3 WB's Delivered, Boeing has 279 WB's Delivered

Airbus has delivered 3, A350-900 since December 22, 2015. All to Qatar. Boeing has hit full stride with 279-787's, since its first delivery in late September 2011. Boeing spun out three 787 in its first three months. Airbus has done the same feat in five months.  It has predicted 12 more in 2015. Comparing the two programs indicates a separate strategy. The Boeing 787 effort jumped over Airbus, and has left the Euro company a no rush approach. Boeing rushed its charge forward regardless the obstacles it encountered for its more complex made aircraft.

Had Boeing not had the battery issue, it would have probably gained more sales in the early production years. However, things being what they where, Boeing gave up some precious ground over Airbus during 2012-2013. Risk averting airlines, may have opted for the Airbus during the bad days Boeing had encountered. All things considered, the market is settling into an orderly two camp market for wide bodies. Each having its own talking points for salesmanship.

The Airbus approach is going very carefully forward, and celebrating its three deliveries in five months without the press hounding them over any internal calamities from program mishaps. As it was experienced in  Boeing's fast start. Airbus is simply laying low in the weeds and relishing its second place position without all the Boeing "hub-bub"  concerning its: forming, storming and norming and performing of the 787.

  1. "The Forming – Storming – Norming – Performing model of group development was first proposed by Bruce Tuckman in 1965, who maintained that these phases are all necessary and inevitable in order for the team to grow, to face up to challenges, to tackle problems, to find solutions, to plan work, and to deliver results."
Wiki reference:

Tuckman's stages of group development

These are factors of team building. Airbus has done its storming in privacy with no unreasonable goal setting the pace. It quietly keeps announcing certainties long after that "certainty" is achieved within the program. Where it is long past tense rather than ,Boeing's approach of announcing a "certainty", before all problems are worked out. Hence Boeing ran the risk of a program mishap during the early history of the aircraft.

It is not to say Airbus did not have its share of mishaps within the program. However, it is to say being second, allowed them the position for the A-350 of laying low in the weeds, of never having publicity over those types mishaps. Airbus couched its airplane development, and not often reported any problems within the framework of A-350 lower tech development. Boeing came out naked into the press stirring up interest for its "All New 787", which superseded the Wright Brothers Historical effort back-in-the-day.  Boeing needed the limelight to launch its program for the 787 to succeed. It needed the press to quantum jump Airbus who was left sanding flat footed back in 2007.

The Boeing risk was shadowed by battery failure, adding shims, and drill holes and fastener making wing cracks. Airbus for sure had its shakedown period for its own million part aircraft assembly during  the early A-350 start-up. Except they were in second place, and mitigated its news under the developmental umbrella of press protection. Boeing marched out with its chest laid bare. Oops, there were some nasty scars exposed after if flew commercially during 2012. Boeing pressed into gaining separation from Airbus' slow slog to delivery.

The market has settled. The bean counting has started comparing both programs. Airbus claims its better than the 787. That is to be expected even if the A-350 is considered nothing more than a plastic kite. They will always say they are better, no matter the circumstance! It's their job that's what they do.

Boeing has passed the mishap curve in full display of the press ramblings. The aircraft is actually remarkable, imagine that! The added value 787 has secrets within its frame, and its not 5 inches wider which is Airbus' only difference maker over the 787. The all electric scheme has flown in almost four years, where in a few months it will celebrate its fourth years in service. Over 330-787 will be delivered by end of October 2015. The added value of the 787 is becoming realized through those same systems diagnostics. Maintenance cost are now hard numbers and very pleasing to Boeing's customers. A second wave of orders should reflect the pleasing performance of the 787, sans glitches. The brochure given the customers back in 2011 rings true finally.

The A-350 has only three in commercial aircraft flying at this time, and will soon have more. By the time the A-350 has delivered 15 of its type at years end, Boeing will have delivered about 120 during 2015 and totaling 348-787 for the over-all program delivered. (See Chart Below)

*2015 Delivery Projected for Year End

Winging It Chart adjusted for Year end production projections . 

Laying in the weeds during development for Airbus has paid off for its WB order book. Baring any major mishap in commercial service, the A-350-9 will be a steady program forward, which keeps Boeing hopping for years to come. At the end of 2016, Boeing will have an over 400 units delivered lead over A-350 delivered making a significant foot print in the WB  Market. Airbus is betting on additional passenger space and its follow-on optics for the passengers. Boeing has played both to the Airline customer and its passengers with top to bottom advancements. Airlines choose the seat configuration and numbers in passengers for the space available.
Both makers have a comparable backlog of around 800 units. However, Boeing is at a 10-12 unit per month rate where Airbus has not achieved even a 1 a month rate since first delivery. Boeing may go under Airbus' Backlog by year's end, depending on any new orders taken in for the makers in the next six months.

This leads into the next topic, the customer reflexes towards having a quicker delivery date from the airplane maker's backlog availability. Boeing certainly has the high ground, since it has devoured backlog from its peak order book number of 1,104-787, and it could it go significantly under the 800 backlog units mark by year's end from a robust production program. Otherwise, the Paris Air Show could change the backlog metric with new order announcements, as Airbus uses this event for its own self-promotion. The Paris Airshow becomes a signal, whether Airbus has anything going on at-all for the year. Boeing may come in with a few 787 surprises (orders), as I am suspecting. The first three months Boeing showed a normal progression of orders each month.. The pace of announcement has lessened, as customers may be waiting for this year's next event for its big bang, and attention generation during the Paris Airshow event. It looks as if both manufacturers will hover around 800 WB's to be delivered from its backlog by end of 2015. I would not be surprised if Boeing's Backlog goes back up to, and over 850 787's after the Paris Announcements.

Reference Credit: All Things 787

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

The Importance Of Being Common

Airlines tend to buy aircraft in a growth patterns staying with a manufacturer, whether or not the next type of up-line model is not better than the competitions. In-essence, the commonality question becomes more import for fleet expansion or replacement than if buying 787-9 or an A-350-900 when you have a fleet of single aisle already supplied with trained ground personal, parts, and few pilots capable of stepping up to a different dual aisle model. The 1% -2% difference between wide bodies in competition doesn't play into the over-all cost of having a mixed fleet of both Airbus and Boeing Aircraft.

PAL is pondering buying the A-350. It also runs in numbers the A-320. It has retired its 747 fleet and needs long legs. What PAL has to consider, is whether the A-320 meets its future needs as compared with the Boeing MAX single aisle, before it orders the A-350 duo-aisle wide body. Boeing would like to flip the PAL fleet Boeing's way. It has to sell them, the MAX, in the future with an overwhelming argument before PAL could even consider the 787 wide body. It just easier for PAL to order the A-350 regardless of a line by line comparison on the 787 vs the A-350.

Boeing must convince PAL why the 737 Max is a sea change event for other airlines in the region, before the wide body sale can be completed. Here are Boeing's Talking point to that end.

  • The 737 Max is a better fit for PAL.
  • The 737 training expense for PAL maybe mitigated through aircraft price offerings and sweeteners.
  • The timing for PAL/Boeing delivery could be made more appropriate for PAL's financing resources.
  • The Boeing Advantage of dual aisle performance could be made relevant with Boeing's fleet change assistance.
  • Competition is going to be other airlines which are flying Boeing in the region.
  • The competition with wide bodies, world-wide, is the 787, the A-350 maybe close but no cigar.
Boeing has to work very hard for the wide-body sales of the 787 as PAL ponders Airbus and its commonality with the A-320. The Max discussion must be part of the deal in order it to work for PAL.

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

One Thing Is Known, China Doesn't Pay Attention To Paris Airshows

Ruili Airlines has reported it has signed off on 6.1 billion deal with Boeing for 60 Max 737's. The largest order booked this year for the single aisle aircraft with Boeing. Paris aside, China and Boeing are pressing the "book" as it comes forward per customer requests. In this case Ruili is too busy building its airline to worry about style points at Paris. No matter what happens during the Paris pomp and Airbus, the end of the year remains on December 31, and Boeing will post its numbers just the same.

Airshows are just for showing-off. Ruili is about moving forward quickly.

Financial Buzz:

"Ruili Airlines is a young airlines company in China that is already runs operations using five Boeing 737 aircraft. The other 60 are expected to be" completely delivered by 2025.

  The Max 737 has gained steam without the Paris affect playing on the "Book". This indicates more is in play for Paris then is currently known beforehand. It maybe a 787 show after -all.

Saturday, May 16, 2015

Wait For It Boeing, The World Will Grow Into The 787-8

The early heady days of the 787 program are over. Customers have filled the 787-9 order book often while flipping 787-8 orders into a 787-9 order. Boeing is also catering for a strong single Aisle market with the Max 737 family. Models go  from 737-700 to 787-900 Max types for its order book. The 757 is being retired in a orderly progression with no heir apparent on the horizon, even though Airbus proposes a A-321 NEO. This model condition creates the often quoted "Gap" in the order book line-up. Their is no "Gap" filler from the 737 family to the 787-8. It becomes quite a jump. The "stop-gap" measure is ordering the Max 200C or the 737-900. Boeing has stopped consideration on filling its gap filling quandary in the Boeing family of aircraft, or has it?.

Data is what everyone lacks, and Boeing has this in abundance. It projects for the need of 33,000 new aircraft added to order books from now until 2030. It knows how much it will cost when wedging in another new aircraft type competing for financial resources while having both the 787-10 and the 777X family projects moving forward. It also knows several other points, the Airbus A-350-800 is an epic order failure. The door swung open for Boeing in this case. There is no competitor with the 787-8. Airbus saw this too, hence the A-330NEO is a knee jerk 787-8 stopper done on the cheap. Loyal customers responded in lock step for a few hundred orders. They weren't going to buy Boeing aircraft in the first place.

However, Boeing just sits on its ultimate plan for its family of aircraft from single aisle to duo aisle offerings. The gap is waiting for the world to catch up rather than Boeing coming out with the single aisle or duo aisle new aircraft "gap filler". They already have the gap filler in its stable and its flying today, but the world growth has not caught up. This change will only be noted in the 787-8 order book in the next few years. Boeing needs to build a 787-8 metro class variant. Featuring a 220 seat limitation, shrinking the fuel load for only for up to five thousand miles of service travel, and making weight stripping adjustments within the 787-8 frame for shorter travel legs. The 787-8 would be a perfect candidate for optimizing the use of payload limits, and making engine adjustments for better fuel consumption when flying interurban routes such as a Seattle to New York routine.
Gap pressure will come from airline growth from its customer base. Boeing must lower the purchase price of the 787 metro concept through a less is more campaign added to the 787-8 aircraft. The 737-900 has reached its route limit, and it falls just short of linking world growth and routes just beyond the 3500 mile boundary. A 787-8 Metro variant would fill in nicely with little sunk cost going into another airplane program. The Metro 787 is not made for globe trotting, but it's made for the world you and your friends live in.

A Must Read on the 777X

It's never about the blogger when an article come out like this has for the 777X engine plan. The GE 9X is an important milestone for both GE and Boeing. If what is read in this article is far better than 15% as the 787 proved itself with a 20% commercial efficiency rate from it customers this is going to be very big. I mean very big news. The 777X is already very big.

GE9X engine for the 777X will be 10% more efficient than any twin aisle engine

Good Bye A350-1000 there is a new sheriff coming to town and it will eat Airbus' lunch off the flight line.. credits on graphics  Next Big Future Link Part II 777X

Thursday, May 14, 2015

CFM's 800 Pound Gorilla Waits... Part Deux "Mumbo-Jumbo"

Counter points are for imaginary staff meetings. After taking-off with the CFM 1-B, Boeing flew its engine with startling metrics results. The bench test short fall only told CFM what it needed to know about its progeny in the first place. Tweaking the CFM 1-B destined for the 737 Max made gains towards eliminating the 5% short fall with big results.

First test of Boeing 737 Max engine looks good; future success critical

The first test looks good, that's it? However, below is the quip from Boeing testing, which suggest an improvement without disclosing what the metric has achieved towards eroding the 5% shortfall. Indicating maybe they aren't there yet, but techno adjustments has made the engine  closer to the advertised efficiency.

Puget Sound Business Journal quote:

"The smaller Boeing LEAP-IB engine, manufactured by CFM International, is lighter than the version of the engine the Airbus A320neo will use, but having less ground clearance that the A320neo has forced Boeing to use smaller-diameter versions of the fans that push air through the engine for thrust
But Boeing engineers have insisted that 737 Max’s LEAP-IB, engineered with a slightly flattened cowling to fit under the 737 wing, will offer competitive performance.

“While we applaud Pratt & Whitney for their efforts, we are not seeing that the availability of (the geared turbofan) as a key discriminator,” said Keith Leverkuhn, vice president and program manager for the 737 Max, in a 2013 press briefing. “I think the LEAP engine, with the technologies they’re adding in, provides us with right technology and is truly matched to the airplane.” 

There it is, from the Mumbo-Jumbo (747 test bed) is on the Boeing table. They see what they need to do to make the CFM 1-B compliant to the goals for the aircraft. Is it bravery talking, or is it a feign just for Airbus Bravado? It's hard to tell in this case, especially when trying to sell more MAX to its prospective customers. It has become an insiders game for the clientele. No one yet, knows for sure what's up with that statement above, other than what it says. Be brave we have the battle won over the NEO.

However, I am trying to be Brave with all this Mumbo-Jumbo talk and I am in want to believe the initial outcome is really good. Once again I am guessing at a 3 1/2 % flying test bed improvement over the bench tests report already, and a future PIP is coming gaining the other 1 & 1/2% needed by CFM testing, component parts, and engine tweak department.

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

The World's Top Ten Airline Approaches

Going to some of these approaches,  and never considering as top a top ten, but here it is with "Private Fly" rendition of Top Ten approaches. Some are stark and beautiful and some are calming yet interesting. All are exciting approaches for the possibilities after landing.

To find out more about these airport's and its locations, please link to Private Fly provided above through the name of the publication.

Private Fly's list: Starting with the World's Number one approach in this year's Private Fly list.


You said:

"I've flown to many beautiful locations worldwide but NOTHING even comes close to comparing with the thrill and beauty that stuns you as you come in to land at Queenstown. The approach to Queenstown has everything. Looking over the endless Southern Alps, and the pristine turquoise rivers and lakes is just magical."

"Breathtaking approach with mountains and lakes surrounding you. It feels as if you're being transported straight to Middle Earth - because you are!"

"I had no words, just tears of awe and beauty when I landed here! It's completely enveloped by mother nature."

The judges said:

Bill Prince "A world class approach to a world class destination. The snatched panoramas as you descend into this hitherto barren-looking landscape makes you realise that pilots do get the best views."

Read more about Queenstown Airport










Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Its Spring, Its Paris, The Military Stays Home

Not often does the military stay on the side lines at airshows. However the US military industrial complex is not flexing its muscle at this years Paris Airshow. No KC-46 tanker, no F-35 and it doesn't appear that Stars Wars will even show an epic movie, "The attack of The Drones". If the Bath works could only float a ship up the Seine to the Left bank. The US military would be represented. Even EADS had a tragic blooper directly before this year's show. Its A-400 military transport crashed last week in Spain killing most of its flight crew. The troubled program has lost the excitement over its military offering just prior to another delivery, the Turkish military .

UK halts Airbus A400M usage after Seville crash

 Wreckage of an Airbus A400 military plane which crashed in  Seville

An Airbus A400M military transport plane crashed in Seville while performing a test flight, killing four crew members. Photograph: Spanish police handout/EPA

"Airbus Defense and Space said that of a total crew of six, four were killed and two were in hospital in a serious condition. All the crew members were company employees and of Spanish nationality. A spokesman said: “Our thoughts are with the families and friends of those affected by this tragic accident and we are providing all our care and support.”

The plane was expected to be the third aircraft to be delivered to a Turkish customer, and formal delivery was scheduled for next month.

The A400M is a large, propeller-driven transport aircraft that is being assembled in Seville. Some 194 have been ordered by eight countries, including Spain, seeking a replacement to its ageing Hercules fleet."

It saddens me to see these kind of photos. An airplane several years back crash near my home and it looked just like this photo. I never loose sight that flying is not taken for granted. The U.S.Osprey program had its gloomy days and now its seems to be a fine aircraft after cleaning up its weaknesses.

Image result for osprey air craft crashes

The military pushes the envelope with its inventions and perhaps an airshow is not the appropriate place to demonstrate its inventive might. Static displays are best served with long lines and a brochure table. 

Orders are the big thing at the airshow. As mentioned earlier within the context of a prior blog, I can only hope a few surprises are up some body's sleeve for order announcement, others wise it will be better not to fight Paris traffic, but just sit on the left bank eating crepes and waiting for the DDG-1000 to come up the Seine river. 

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Hub-a-nomics is not the Boeing Strategy?

"Hub aggregation is also a key to enabling growth, because the region's central hubs allow carriers to serve hundreds of routes that have insufficient traffic to warrant point-to-point service. "Alliances, partnerships, and equity stakes in airlines of neighboring regions also feed the Middle East hubs," added the Boeing official."

The 787 was built for point to point travel. From your front door to China with one airline ticket. However comes the term "Hub Aggregation" or a "Cluster, Forming United Center of Kaos". (No Acronym supplied)

Boeing is talking 737 MAX smack when its talking "Hub Aggregation". The 787 is a hub buster. The Middle East wants the world to come to them but not on a 737 necessarily. However, Boeing needs expansion for its single aisle 737 flying bridge, using "Hub Aggregation" as if it were a cruise ship term for a re-positioning maneuver.  The 737 case is for what the "Arab Nations have built it", and we are coming with the Boeing single aisle complimentary aircraft for that Arab Hub Aggregation which has been established.

Boeing proposes, growth can only occur with the right equipment. Emirates, Qatar and Jordan to name a few, need the re-positioning aircraft for its passengers like the 737 Max complimenting its Hub Aggregations in the Middle East 

Saturday, May 9, 2015

787 Production Surges Past Expectation

The two plants in Charleston, SC and Everett WA, can get the job done without Everett's extra surge line. Exceeding expectations by months, as Boeing originally predicted a 2016 date, Boeing will move in the 777X project into the Everett 787 surge line space after the end of 2015.

This is a solid announcement, and the planning calendar should not change. Charlotte has turned around its production acumen for the 787, and is targeted with 4-5 787's a month by years end. Thus ending Everett's 787 surge line. Everett will continue it's pace of six 787 a month. Eventually, Charlotte will achieve about 6, 787 a month, making the completion goal for its contribution towards Boeing's stated 2016 goal of 12 787 a month.

Charlotte, SC will specialize in the 787-10 production due to an awkward, transportation of its longer barrel required for the 787-10's. This barrel size makes it not feasible for any Everett 787-10 production desires. It makes it so much more efficient for staying home in the low country keeping the longer barrel for Charlotte's aspirations.

The Charlotte 787 production learning curve reaches maturity by the end of 2015 while the other facility (Everett) starts 777X production and takes on 777X floor modifications in the former 787 surge line area.

The 787-10 step-up, will be Charlotte's first solo effort after Boeing goes outside the former Everett only development facility, where it had processed the 787-8 and 787-9 as first builds and testing of the sibling aircraft. The year 2016 will be the Boeing South matriculation ceremony in the Charlotte, SC plant. They have previously built a production 787-9 with success, and now they will build the 787-10 out of whole cloth and probably will fly it back to Everett during a complete flight testing regimen. It should eventually fly north to Everett for further testing, where they have the extensive testing data, collection and expertise available.

All of this can only happen because Boeing South has emerged as a competent and efficient facility. It looks like Boeing's gamble paid off going South, which bodes well for the low country and giving Everett more flexibility with the 777X project. All of this sets up for the 230th decade since counting began.

In the year 2030 everyone expects another Sea Change in aviation. The 777X will probably go plastic with the newest GE engines having all composite internals. An enormous Boeing blended wing could replace the A-380. By then, the 737 MAX is a now a twenty year place holder in single aisle category, where it will go futuristic with a composite make-over in 2030. Finally, the 787, is hard to replace, but three decades of service gives the 787 all the advantages of scientific advances. It will emerge as the ultimate airline with its composite barrel design and all electric architecture made better.

Friday, May 8, 2015

A Bloggers Find: The 777X Introduction

Winging it desires to bring this Article to its reader attention by re-posting the below article from the

First Boeing 777X tipped for 2018
By David Flynn     Filed under: Boeing 777Boeing 777X

First Boeing 777X tipped for 2018

The first Boeing 777X will trundle off the production line in 2018, a Boeing exec has revealed, as the airline edges closer to commercial flights of the new long-range jets from 2020.
That debutante is likely to be the Boeing 777-9X, although the X will be dropped as the plane makes its journey from blueprint to blue skies, to become the 777-9.,213/554d64f602704e16af6f33fa767f2254-boeing-777x-1500m.jpg
It will be followed by the smaller but longer-range Boeing 777-8X, or 777-8 (note the nod to the naming conventions adopted for the Boeing 787 Dreamliner).,350/53bcff9c69384042bef17165767f2254-boeing-777x-8x-9x.jpg

Bob Feldmann, Boeing's vice president for the 777X project, told The Seattle Times that the first 777X will roll off an early production line – one currently used to ramp up Boeing 787 production – in 2018.

Boeing is on track on finalize the 777X's design configuration later this year. "It’s an exciting time as we begin to define the world’s next great airplane" Feldman says.
The manufacturer has already notched up orders for 286 of the 777X jets, with the lion's share going to 777 stalwart Emirates in 35 of the 777-8s and 115 of the 777-9s.,124/554d6b8a085c4fc49f5b3b25767f2254-boeing-777x-emirates-1500a.jpg
Gulf neighbor and rival Etihad has inked a deal for 8 777-8s and 17 777-9s.

Qatar Airways, Cathay Pacific, Lufthansa and ANA have all opted for the larger 777-9 alone with orders.,243/554d6c258ddc42a984103985767f2254-boeing-777x-cathay-pacific-1500a.jpg
The X factor
The latest addition to Boeing's best-selling 777 family, the 777X is being spruiked as "the largest and most efficient twin-engine commercial jet in the world, with the lowest operating cost per seat of any commercial airplane."
The 777-9X is spec'd for 400 passengers in a three-class cabin layout with a peak range nudging past 15,185km (8,200 nautical miles).
The 777-8X will trim the seat count to 350 passengers but with a maximum range over 17,220km (9,300 nautical miles).
In both cases, improved design and new-generation engines will see the planes burn less fuel than today's 777s.,430/554d6501fabc4058b75335aa767f2254-boeing-777x-1500l.jpg

Long wings for the win
Part of that advanced design: sweeping wings made from carbon-fibre composites rather than metal, which span 235 feet (71.6 meters) to boost aerodynamic efficiency.,262/554d6518b0e448e5b8d5363f767f2254-boeing-777x-1500j.jpg
However, the tips of those wings will fold up when the 777X is on the ground to reduce the wingspan by some 7 metres (23 feet).,306/554d656c011c450091f6366d767f2254-boeing-777x-1500b.jpg,292/554d65582df845fa9ee63493767f2254-boeing-777x-1500d.jpg

These 'swingtips', as Boeing calls them, are required to make the 777X fit into airport boarding gates and taxiways designed for the other members of the 777 family rather than demand expensive airport modifications.,262/554d64e06ec44d818e5434d3767f2254-boeing-777x-1500o.jpg,292/554d65753c7447e68228366a767f2254-boeing-777x-1000a.jpg
(It's not exactly a new idea: Boeing patented it in 1995 for the original Boeing 777, and while no airline ever ticked this option box on their order, a full-scale model of the folding wingtip is on display at Boeing's Museum of Flight in Seattle.),312/554d65f3b848498eb48e36d3767f2254-boeing-777x-swingtip-wingtip.jpg
Inside the Boeing 777X
Boeing will also adapt key aspects of its 787 Dreamliner series to shape the passenger experience of the 777X.
The 777X will include a lower effective cabin altitude of 6,000 feet; oversized windows set higher into the cabin; and what Boeing promises will be "economy class seat widths up to 18 inches wide,"  although the choice of configurations and seat widths will in the end fall to airlines buying the big bird.

The rest of the creature comforts which Boeing has in mind for the 777X – which is slated to begin production in 2017, with first commercial flights from 2020 – are a mash-up of the Boeing 777 family interior with the 787's cabin innovations.
For starters the cabin altitude will be pegged at 6,000 feet and humidity levels boosted, with both traits being "comparable to the 787 Dreamliner" in order to reduce the effects of inflight fatigue and jetlag.

Also like the Dreamliner, the enlarged windows of the 777X  will be positioned higher on the fuselage so they're at eye level for a larger percentage of passengers, to allow more light into the cabin and a sense that there's an 'outside' out there from even the dreaded middle seats.,262/554d64edf71c449baaa234a1767f2254-boeing-777x-1500n.jpg

There should be lower cabin noise thanks to new engine nacelle design, better cabin insulation and even the installation of twice as many air nozzles which will funnel triple-filtered air at reduced velocity for less noise.

Boeing also says the 777X will introduce an "all-new interior design that allows airlines to customise their cabin architectures by class."
"This innovation includes an adaptable suite of parts that facilitates choices in overhead ceiling and stow bin configurations, allowing airlines to create the feeling of separate and distinct cabins that meet both airline and passenger needs."
Boeing suggests this as a possible high-tech 777X cabin, perhaps assuming that Tron Airlines is the launch customer...,301/53c50127985c42a2a0a36f49767f2254-boeing-777x-interior-1000a.jpg

Of course, no modern jet can get by without LED mood lighting, so that's a given right out of the box.

"The 777X will redefine the total passenger experience" promises Dennis Eng, Boeing's Director for 777X Interiors.
"All of the interior features we are exploring and designing into the new airplane are working together as a package to create an exciting new passenger experience." 

The 737 CFM Leap-1B Is under The Boeing Wing (Updated)

The infamous CFM-International Leap-1B is currently under a 747 wing at the start of its extensive testing. What gave its infamy is the 5% performance shortfall on the bench testing recently, which causes major concerns for the program when competing with the Airbus A-320 NEO. Boeing has already sold 2,724 Max to customers with this one only engine type. Boeing placed all its eggs in the CFM basket, as it has done for the 737 since these many years it has been flying.

Image result for CFM Leap 1-B
The next two years testing by both CFM and Boeing must improve the newly conceived engine by the 5% short fall. Heat mitigation design points, and internal inefficiencies are two areas under the engine builders’ scrutiny while it flies attached to the 747-400 test bed. Both Boeing and CFM have to make up the inefficiency metric within its 69.4" diameter. The fixed 737 engine opening is at maximum, negating any expansion of diameter compared with a similar engine found on the A-320 NEO's CFM Leap 1-A, 78" engine diameter. The "efficiency rule of thumb", suggest a bigger diameter for better performance through aerodynamic attributes. Where the additional space gives a natural and better performance with additional mechanical space. A tighter engine makes for a hotter engines losing some performance. The NEO CFM Leap 1-A engine has a 2% shortfall at this time at its 78" diameter. Boeing's tighter Leap 1-B must find ways for an additional 5% improvement during the time it sits attached under the 747 testing wing.


Several publication have suggested new ceramics for dissipating and withstanding heat build-up as one area CFM must achieve a percentage improvement. A combination of tuning the new engine through compression ratios, and engine parts modifications can go only so far when installing PIP's (Performance improvement package) derivatives. Typically a PIP cycle takes vast amount of time for implementation. The CFM Leap 1-B could be making at least two PIP's to improve the engine performance up to 5% from its bench test metric. CFM has these two years of flying test to do it in. How they can do it? Obviously through maximizing its every aspect of thermodynamic testing on composite parts and reconfiguration for the mechanical optimization of this jet engine. CFM has to stay within the lines of a 69.4" diameter. CFM can't cheat the diameter upward by making the 737 Max engine a larger opening, as found on the 777X when it meets engine efficiency targets. Boeing sold the Max to its customers on the premise it will achieve its "established" on paper "bench marks" for efficiency during the MAX project.

Both Boeing and CFM are searching for percentage points in multiple areas rather than just one area.

Here are the key areas they need to find percentage point improvement.
  • Engine Weight Reduction by a slight amount.
  • Advanced Heat resistant & ceramic-plastic parts over the current parts installation.
  • Optimal engine placement on wing moving it frontward or backward by a few mm's or cm's.
  • Tweaking compression by-pass metrics
  • Boeing helps with airplane design aerodynamics and airplane weight.
Any combination of these areas receiving a measurable testing improvements, will come off the bench, and is frozen as a test PIP. Then it's placed under -the-wing as test copy on the 747 Boeing aircraft, for actual en-flight testing.

CFM/Boeing have two years to make up this short fall by method testing each objective area.

Recent news reports show promising results: Air wise Report Link Below

"Separately, a senior industry figure familiar with the LEAP engine described the shortfall speculation as "absolutely false." Another industry insider familiar with the matter said talk of a shortfall was inaccurate."

The Airbus Leap 1-A with its 2% short fall has different testing constraints from its bigger diameter engine. They have an easier road to go where any improvement can be passed through for consideration on the 1-B. However, since Boeing needs innovation in more areas, and since the 1-B is constrained by 69.4", its innovation may not be transferable to the 1-A scenario.

Before Max

MAX Trickeration
Photo From Aviation Week

Boeing's trickle down design problem starts with aircraft landing clearance and its landing gear. It would have to redesign the whole frame for accommodating a taller gear folding into the body. Next would be a push back on all engineering space available in the aircraft. The argument for a clean sheet design would be made by having a taller landing gears for its bigger engine opening. Boeing chose to improve the 737 by a giant "Leap" step, and not change the frame configuration by doing so. 

The CFM 1-B is confined by ground clearance since its using 737 NG configuration theme of a low- to - the - ground engine placement. The question remains, will they do it?

My answer, is sort of and very close:

The engine can better itself by 3% as an instinctive estimation for CFM improvement. Boeing will chip in another 1% for its part with Aero design trimmings when the MAX flies. With a "Test PIP II" and a Boeing effort in total, will make the 4%+ offset the 5% lost indicated during its first and formal bench tests. Customers will be satisfied, since it will achieve an advantage over the competition (A-320) with a significant efficiency separation over the  the CFM Leap 1-A hung on the A-320 NEO. Maybe the 5% shortfall is a false flag operation for Airbus' sake.

A Winging It Follow-up has found CFM, also had placed a loosely fitting 1B engine on the bench representing what a worn out 1B would simulate after approximately five years of service. Having observed this important fact, I can take several conclusions on this new knowledge.

1. Having a loose  engine tolerance will significantly under perform expectations found in a new engine delivered with factory tight tolerances. CFM knew this would be an outcome from this test but it didn't know by how much. The one formally tested, was a under performing engine configuration representing what a customer may expect from an engine at the end of its life cycle.

2. Finally, lessons learned from airborne 747 testing, will include significant changes optimizing the CFM-1B configured engine, in addition with Boeing's own aero packaged, improvements mating the the 1B engine nacelle with 737 Max body dynamics, optimize a more efficient body enhancements with new lift and drag coefficients saving fuel and workload for the engine  

The claim by others who became a town cryer for a 1B -5% shortfall were only correct within limited facts about the test, and have greatly underestimated what the 1B will demonstrate on the first 737 Max in flight testing. Indeed it should meet the high expectations mapped at the beginning of this program, a 14% improvement over older 737 single aisle models. Airbus has much to be alarmed with when the situation of the block tests is exposed. Those on the project cannot say out of confidentiality, but can smile at the hubris of a -5% shortfall report.