1. How many routes exists that can fill the right airplane at least by 80%?
2. How many competitors will dilute the market causing a lower Load factor?
747-8i/F ordered = 122
A-380 ordered = 317
747-8 38 % Market Share; Start Date 2010
A-380 62% Market Share: Start date 2005
More anemic sales of the 747-8's have been sold in the last two years than the zero ordered A-380's. Twenty-nine front line orders have been canceled since A-380 program started. The Option book has dwindled back to 28, out of a possible 105 options, made during the program history. Global warming is really affecting the A-380 Glacier.
Those two key questions plague all airlines and in particularly the super Jumbo Customers. Emirates bet the Oil Farm on the A-380 without noting how many routes could financially sustain flying to those locations. A dwindling ticket base could kill the super Giant. It will take delivery on or about 82 more these monsters. With less high density routes available to support its weight, it is tenuous on its survival. The A-380 will collapse itself before Emirates can reach 140 A-380's delivered. I would expect some more Airbus A-380 cancellations, before it reaches its own profound conclusions of 317 delivered. Only 163 undelivered A-380's remain to be produced , and only 28 Options are on the books that could go away after the next airline board meeting. It looks like an 747-8i scenario.
Emirates took the baseball adage "build it and they will come", even in a corn field. Yes, there are fans of the A-380 who will always appreciate over a cup of hyperbole, while commenting on it, as well other people do with other aircraft. Queue the Ice water. The smaller 747 Jumbo sales is receding like a Glacier during Global warming. However the Larger A-380 Jumbo is calving off its sales number with cancellations more than new orders for the last few years. Emirates will give into the Global warming as others go more towards the 777X-9 , its more handy in all markets, but it too has seat glut problems as well but not so much.
Survival of the fittest in this Darwinian scenario. Will the big dinosaurs rule like the A-380, or will the Horse change the world once more. Even a wooden horse collapsed the city of Troy thousands of years ago. Emirates, there is still time to survive. Get a flying horse!