Sunday, April 26, 2015

Press Says Slow Orders For 787 or is it the Coming Paris Air Show Effect

This is the time of the year for hoarding order announcements. Its about 50 days before the big event. A typical year has Airbus saving all its big announcements for the emotional effect of wowing potential customers. Boeing too, not to be sidelined, will bag a few orders at the show. This is a show, pairing up its dancers as airline customers and manufacturer, who want to tout its purchases like a couple at the prom flashing its styles on the dance floor. Paris is for dancing with the public.

I am curious who will show up with what garment draped on its shoulders. The grand promenade down the long showcase stairs is not far off. Will Cinderella show up with a sizable order no one saw coming, or will it be a dude with gawkers staring at each other? Its a quiet order book year at this point, where Boeing prefers to act nonchalant saying its the customers call to say so, yawn. Then there is John Leahy, my favorite villain. He will be the the one wearing the royal purple sash embossed with gold letters saying "Hyperbole King of The Show"!

John Leahy at PT Barnum's Pavilion Explaining About Suckers

Image result for paris air show 2015 John Leahy

Now that the metaphor is set in place, let's get real with the show. Who will show and who will not show? Boeing has been suspiciously silent recently, only showing the 51 Max with Copa. Concerning both order books from the duopoly, are they the calm before an order storm? Boeing and its customers announced a recent 787 shift of trading with 10, 787, for 777 and delaying 5, 787 coming from two US  giants, United and American airlines.

Could this be a pre-positioning Public Relations move before the show?

Yes, it is that move. Negative sounding deals were were known for sometime by Corporate insiders, and the news was pushed out on the same day, as a not so curious happening. Boeing is trimming the news cycle sails before the Paris Airshow.

Pre Airshow activities listed, by Winging It, considering both mega builders of aircraft:

  • Move on all negative appearing transactions (Boeing) two months before the show.
  • Airbus, asked all its customers, if they will hold any order announcements for 60 days, until the front of the show.
  • Groom your biggest orders for the show.
  • Announce something startling at the show, How about a New Engine Option, Airbus!
  • Don't Crash a Fly-by test
  • Plan to land the A-380 once again 
  • Drones Baby Drones, at the show, the 777X isn't here yet!
  • Is it KC-46 demo time?
The Airshow this year has a lot of mystery going into it, but it will answer questions going out. It will tell everyone what kind of year the majors are having pushing CRP.  2015 is a year I predicted would have a very strong second half for the 787's. Paris may reveal that hand with some 787 sales announcement. The low fuel price market have skewed predictions, as different sales combinations are occurring under these fuel price conditions. Exampled by the switch from 10 units of 787, in a one for one switch going to 777-300-ER's, by United Airlines. Remember, Boeing/United did this little thing 60 days before the show, after-all,  Boeing made an offer United couldn't refuse.

Randy Tinseth Leads The Way  For Boeing
Image result for paris air show 2015 Randy Tinseth
Air Transport Paris 2013 Article Photo

The real sales shenanigans are saved for for the Paris Air Show, June 15-21, 2015. John Leahy has a new suit for the show, Randy Tinseth is at a Paris Airshow restaurant sampling food ,and answering questions about next years sales forecast. The speaker system announces John Leahy will be speaking at the PT Barnum Pavilion in 15 Minutes. The topic, "How Big Can We Make It", followed by a slide-show entitled, "Inside the Low Tech Sleeve Of Airbus". Randy is available for a photo op at 1:00 pm in front of the Boeing Pavilion with its newest customers gained, since the start of the show. So goes the show, so goes the "Bigs", welcome to Paris everyone.