Saturday, April 4, 2015

Pent-Up WIP 787 Will Release In 2015

Those terrible teens orphaned in the 787 Production Purgatory (8 each), Those early 787-9's found in the Change Incorporation and Re-work holding tank (5 each) until its errant parents can fork over the bond money, and the shrinking buffer of preflight preparation goes from about 17 down to 12, represent a clearing of the flightline decks. By the end of 2015 the teens should be two. The tanked should be flying and the flight processing stage should be 6. Boeing will have made its guidance. It will produce a consistent 10 a month for 120 787 from factory to customer and adding pent-up Works-In-Process, it should go into the mid 130's delivered for 2015.

The question comes up how do I know that will happen? It is simple, it can't go for 12 a month production without it happening. The WIP and holding tank is a road block for 12 a month production, and the change management plans for adding the 787-10 would be stuffed with backlog of not sold or delivered. Part of Boeing's efficiency plan considers the introduction of twelve a month production pacing and the 787-10 project. It needs square footage available for the 777X project as well. The 787 has grown up and needs to go to customers. That is why the feverish pace is seen for delivering the terrible teens. Japan Airlines and New Zealand Air needs it 787-9 by the end of the year and out of Change Incorporation and Re-work status.

Everett is to become the work engine for both the 787-8 and 787-9 during the ramp-up process as Charleston, SC prepares for its 787-10 production. Does that mean Charleston will stop producing the -8 and -9 at this time? No, it means it will slow down its scheduled production of all its 787 slots for a short while, as it assembles the first test 787-10 testing aircraft. Everett will take on a full production effort during during this time to assure Boeing's 10-12 a month pacing is in place while Charleston gets its arms around the 787-10. Boeing South will be making all types at the same time but at a slightly slower pace. Everett will shift to a slightly faster pace as Boeing will balance for its guidance.

Boeing is now trying to empty the flightlines, the change incorporation work space and every other place it could use when maximizing production levels in Everett, so Boeing will meet its guidance during the next 2-3 years without any clumsy delays at its delivery cash register. They will to deliver above 130 in 2015 for its preparation for the 787-10 production and factory introduction.