Sunday, April 5, 2015

787 Order Book Churning Period Has Begun

Below is a chart of completed 787-8 orders. They represent Boeing sales opportunity for churning out new orders. As this list grows from Boeing's delivery pace of 120 more 787's delivered in 2015. Taking care of  Boeing's potential reorder customers is an important consideration in its sales effort with follow-on 787's sales in the next round. Hainan was on my short list originally, but they closed a deal for some 30 787-9's after its 10th 787-8 delivery. This is the best example of sales churning for making this point after an empty 787 order books. Hainan ordered 10 787-8's and received 10 787-8's. Now they have eagerly added 30 787-9's to its growth plans. With this in place as a sales engine, the following airlines should expand its purchases of more 787's.

Well positioned and empty 787 order books needing some churning in a basic A-B-C approach.
  • Aeromexico
  • British Airways
  • China Southern
  • Ethiopian 
All four enjoy the benefits of the 787 in operation. They all have a need for the 787-9 or 787-10 and are prepositioned in its relative markets or regions for an advantageous 787 follow-on purchase. Having China Southern follow suit as Hainan has just completed its purchase with Boeing, would be a strong move for China Southern. As it keeps pace with its regional competitor. Aeromexico has both a leased and purchased 787-8 fleet and it could lease 787-9's. Getting on  a 787-9 delivery queue sooner would make Aeromexico a strong Latin competitor with LAN and as it goes for European destinations. Finally, Ethiopian sees the importance of the Dreamliner effect and how it has changed its fortune. The 787-9 was  made for beyond Africa and the 787-10 is Africa.

British Airways has already placed orders for 22 787-9's and 12 787-10's at its disposal. It also has set aside for 18 A350-1000 with equal number of options. Boeing does not stand still on its order book and BA is a critical part of making a point, of who has the best aircraft? Since the 787-9 has not begun to deliver for BA it stands to reason the Boeing Sales team must offer information on what the 787-9 is doing in service with its other customers. It is known as the public information on profit and loss filings. Not much is written about the BA eight in number 787-8's in service, but it is important noting silence is a good thing when an aircraft starts operating.

All Things  Chart (Uresh Seth)

Customer Name Customer Code Model Ordered Delivered Undelivered
Aeromexico AMX 787-8 2 2 0
Azerbaijan Airlines AHY 787-8 2 2 0
British Airways BAB 787-8 8 8 0
China Southern Airlines GUN 787-8 10 10 0
Ethiopian Airlines ETH 787-8 10 10 0
Hainan Airlines HNA 787-8 10 10 0
Korean Air KAL 787-8 1 1 0
United Air Lines UAL/CAL 787-8 12 12 0