Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Its Cheat Sheet Time What's Airbus Thinking?

Charts Below tell the bigger wide body story. I have purposefully not included the A330NEO because it does not meet conditions of the wide body only new options. The 787 is all new, the 777-300ER is really a wide body. The A350 is Airbus in the making of its all new wide body. The 777X self explanatory.

The Airbus A350 family is an all new family as will be the 777X, and the 787-9 and 787-10 members are gaining status. I will use those types in the trench warfare analysis of the new wide bodies, since every customer considers those model when making a choice. The 787-8 is almost four years long in its delivery life, and steps on the toes of Airbus everywhere it flies. Since the 777-300ER has been flying for some time I will look at backlog comparisons only and not look at the front end for ordering  yet until I score first the backlog.

Airbus has  778 Airbus A350 in waiting for delivery;
Boeing has 515, 777's in the same status.
Boeing has 826 787's in Backlog status.

Head count status is scored:

Boeing  1,341 wide bodies to be delivered
Airbus     778
WB Net   543  Boeing WB has the advantage over the Airbus WB offering  by 542 units.

Airbus A350
2006200720082009201020112012201320142015Total
Orders2292[2]163[3]5178-3127230-32780
Deliveries12


 777's        Ordered-  Delivered-  Backlog
777-300ER768          539               229           
777X          286           -                  286          
Total          1054         539             515            

787-8           467        232      
787-9           467        15        
787-10         139        –          
Total            1,073     247     
Backlog  TTL–           –          826    
Boeing has six Wide Body models in play.

In every conceivable fold of the Wide Bodied market is seating 200 to 405 passengers, Boeing has Airbus covered with superior performing aircraft for every airline tasks. Even though this has been pieced together out of plans in a parade of announcements, from the 787-8 through the 777-9X. Boeing has achieved a bracketing barrage of models all having the same common avionic controls and servicing attributes required for modern airline singular focused maintenance operations. Mechanics are tuned to commonalities in the six model offerings, as well as the flight crews. Operations manuals from the airline can be written in thematic sequence even though models may vary by size and layout.

The A350-1000 is not a match for the 777-X family. The A350-900 is a one trick pony lost in  the shuffle of  market fitting against its multi-layered competitors, the 787-8,, 787-9, and 787-10. Let's face it, the A350-800 is dead on arrival.

Boeing has to deliver 1,341 wide bodies it has amassed and backlogged, during the same time period Airbus had, and where it now has only has a 779 units to deliver for its future wide body deliveries. Boeing is out pacing Airbus significantly in the realm of duo aisle offerings. Throw in some A330 NEO's and it still falls short.

Adding insult to enjury Boeing is about to take on some robust 787 orders this year.

Somebody here, suggested I should add the A330 NEO's and being charitable since I added the 777-300ERs, I did that as found below. So For John Leahy and the gang at Airbus, a crowd pleasing A330 Neo is added by 120 unbuilt units. Combined with the 779 "unbuilt" A350's, the Airbus WB equaling a total of 898 unbuilt wide bodies in backlog.

Wide Body backlog revised with NEO:

Boeing 1341
Airbus   898

Boeing totals 442 more wide bodies in the numbers game. However at Boeing's production rate they will equal Airbus wide body backlog sooner rather than later while taking on more orders for its wide body offerings. Its a simple choice between 6 models to choose from or two (+A330 NEOs) models to choose from. Expanding airlines needs choice over one size fits all approach.

Below is the Much To Do About Nothing Airbus Extravagant Order Chart (MTDANAEOC) 
Airbus A330neo Firm Orders
Date of
Firm Order
CountryCustomerAircraft TypeCombined
800neo900neo
Totals10110120
24 Dec 2014TaiwanTransasia Airways404[28]
23 Dec 2014IrelandAvolon01515[27]
18 Dec 2014United StatesHawaiian Airlines606[30]
15 Dec 2014MalaysiaAirAsia X05555[25]
3 Dec 2014United StatesCIT Group01515[24]
19 Nov 2014United StatesDelta Air Lines[n 1]02525[22]
    
I was going to front load orders in this part and compare the wide bodies, but I could not find John Leahy for comment before I proceeded. The order part is far bigger than the backlog approach so I will let this one rest since Airbus needs a break.