Thursday, March 26, 2015

Boeing's 787 Four Year Total Orderbook Flow

A review of 787 numbers of sorts. The Cost of Goods Sold journey must take into account raw inventory numbers with fixed and variable cost. The complexities of COGS is broken down by unit cost and averages or factors are applied to any build. Further statistical analysis would calculate application rates within a years build cycle making for a quick estimation or in some cases an actual cost derived from formulation. In this simple case I only look at the big picture. Each category below happens within the same year.

  • As an example 2011 starts with the ending 2010 order book count  and sliding this number for the beginning number starting the  2011 backlog.
  • Boeing Delivered only 3 787 in 2011, reducing available orders to a paltry 733 during its production start-up.
  • Orders continued to flow in during the 365 day period in 2011, increasing the factory number of Backlog to  a net number of  778 which is an overall impact of a plus 42 for the year.  
  • The final note is for the Backlog Delta or the change in Backlog at year's end. The year 2011 saw a backlog increase of 42 during its start-up production years 2010-2011.  The year 2013 also increase the net back log by 118 787's  during that year where the 787-10's were ordered. The years 2014 and 2015 , so far have shown negative net backlog numbers before any significant 787 orders are book during 2015. The last last periods are very strong with production.

Soon there will be 30 more 787-9 booked in 2015 by Hainan Airlines China. The year remains young and another 60  787's  could be booked maintaining a generally positive 787 Backlog by the end of 2015. Overall the 787 backlog has grown since the start of its production in 2011 by 83 more ordered than delivered through the reported 2011-2015 period.  The four year mark numbers are a very healthy sign the plane has caught-on as a "preferred aircraft". Boeing seeks more validation during 2015 by increasing its 787 backlog ever so slightly. I believe they will be able to do this in the second half of 2015.   

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015        Total
Beg B-log 736 778 773 891 842 736
Delivered 3 46 65 114 25 253
Ordered 45 41 183 65 5 339
Ending B-log 778 773 891 842 822 822
Back-Log Delta 42 -5 118 -49 -21 85

Total Ordered            To Date:   1075 
Total Delivered          To Date:    -253
Total Aircraft delivery remaining: 822

Data sources from and Boeing .com