Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Boeing's First Hang-over for 2015 Has Arrived

The Start of each month a chart is made for your own view of Boeing's big picture from 787 production and delivery  pace. Its averaged over 90 days as a moving average. This 90 day per view captures any anomalies of customer readiness or production show stoppers. The average takes this all into account as a moving average and can be wrapped into a quarterly number every 90 days. Its a how did Boeing does for any given point in time at the first of every month, or looking back on a quarter just completed. Here is the 1st of February's moving average numbers including the January production and delivery hang -over.

Goal +/-                          *11/2014    **12/2014         Projecting    January-   (actual) Delta 
Month Deliveries               6            **18              10              7.0                     -11
3 M-M-avg                      9.0          11..67              10             10.33                   -1.33
Production Goal               10              10              10              10                         0
Delivery Trend (+/- )       - 4.           + 8.0                      . 0              +.33      /Target       >                
                                       *PM-Start      **M.A.P.                         PM-End
*Progression Months
**Moving Average Progression

Notes: The drop of a negative, -11,  number over December's production does not affect the 90 day picture for maintaining an average goal of ten a month as it is steadied with a 10.33 average delivered.

However, Boeing needs 23 three more 787's delivered in the next 57 days to meet quarterly expectations of 30 787's delivered by March 31, 2015. Boeing is positioned well enough to complete the goal. It has sufficient 787 ready for customers, testing and preflight status. As follows:

January Delivery                  7
Customer Delivery Pick-up  2
Preflight finish work           15
Production Testing              6
Total primed for 57 days    30

One more note:

Approximately 15 more are on production floors found in both plants. Boeing should migrate at least half those during March into the final preparation stage. Adding a conservative six in number to this status, add it to the above list. As they  should be delivered by March ending, the overall outlook number is for 30 during the quarter. Since these are ballpark numbers. An actual push from the floor will start sooner rather than later, and Boeing will meet the 30 goal for this quarter in progress comfortably.