Friday, January 2, 2015

It's 2015 For Boeing The World's Largest Airplane Maker

The year is off to a great start closing its 2014 books for both sales and production. These are the two external metrics that matter before going inside the company and tweaking an operating departments wing-nuts for a tighter profitability margin. Here is my clumsy end of the year charting of raw numbers which will foretell what Boeing is capable of in 2015.

Before adding any 2014 "held back" numbers as Airbus does, in order to steal a march on the other, Boeing shows 1317 net orders for 2014 at this time. It will adjust upwards some as they also wait for Airbus bragging points committed to close off 2014.

The fourth Quarter looks like this for the 787 production numbers.

Goal +/-                          *10/2014    **11/2014         Projecting    December  (actual) Delta 
Month Deliveries              11            **6              10              18.0                     +8
3 M-M-avg                      11.33          9.0              10              11.67                   +1.67
Production Goal               10              10              10              10                          0
Delivery Trend (+/- )       + 1.33           -1.33                  . 0           +1.67      /Target       >                
                                       *PM-Start      **M.A.P.                         PM-End
*Progression Months
**Moving Average Progression

Other Notes on the 787 Production analysis.

Total Year To Date 787:   114 
2014 Goal                         110
One Month Goal                14 (18 actual deliveries)
+- Margin Delivery Goal    +4       

Fourth Quarter 787 conclusions:

35-787's delivered at a rate of 11.67 per month during the fourth quarter. Obviously showing a sustained plus 10 a month production. Boeing can deliver 12 a month in 2015 for the possibility of 144 Boeing 787's during 2015 ,but Boeing won't go there using a more sensible plan. It will easily reach 120-787's during 2015.

The other Boeing positioning is for its's 737 family. They are producing 42 -737's a month. This will equal 504-737's in 2015. If they can reach 52-737's a month by 2018, it will be with a blend of 737 NG and Max's. By then equipment, production lines, and workforce will be in place for both processes; while both the contemporary NG, and its newest Max are delivered.

With the 777 and 747 not factored in, Boeing should exceed 700 hundred units in 2015. I would assume 18 747-8's and another 90-100 777's for 2015 equaling about:

737 = 504
787= 108
747=  18
777 = 90
Total= 734 during....              2015 for a LiftnDrag Boeing Guidance prediction.